BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie @ #600 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 6:11 pm

    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Sally Neighbour‏Verified account @neighbour_s · 24m24 minutes ago
     More
    This is the iconic Tanah Lot temple in Bali, soon to be the site of a Trump Tower resort. How on earth??? Find out tonight on #4Corners

    Money, money and more money going to the “right” people. 🙁

  2. Lizzie
    Crikey understands that the “consideration” is by an external body and that the matter pertains to a staffing issue, but no further detail is available at this time.

    Sounds like it might be sexual harassment, but I could well be wrong.

  3. ‘The richest 1% of Australians now own 22% of the nation’s total wealth.’

    How come that is never mentioned when the right complains that the ‘top 10% of taxpayers pay X amount of tax ‘, where X is greater than 10.

  4. Oh, thefairgo is so unbelievably naive it’s priceless — today’s little effort is an article on free speech, which is an Andrew Bolt-ish sook about how you’re not allowed to go around insulting and offending people — and then in comments the moderator reminds us all that debate should be respectful….

  5. ctar1 @ #564 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 5:10 pm

    It’s fun seeing that TV clip of Abbott saying that there needs to be more democracy in Liberal Party Branches in the selection of candidates because lobbyists and party factions have too much say in the selections. He says this is why party membership is ‘hemorrhaging’ (The NSW Lib Party say membership in their branches is actually growing).
    Poor Tones! Twelve months ago a ‘right size’ donation to the Libs made via him got his endorsement of your person or whatever decision you wanted.
    Now him being in favour is the ‘kiss of death’.

    …………………………

    Yep – I’m always reminded for his ‘Captains Picks’ when he had the PM’s job – now of course he wants people like himself and others to call the shots.

    Great to see the tories in this situation though.

    And still they have bugger all policy wise.

  6. GG,
    ‘Wimbledon bans the Jeremy Corbyn chant!’
    As the article says, red rag to a bull. Poms can be bolshie at times. Anti-Corbyn marshals at Wimblebum – should be interesting.

  7. @GG

    Did he spank someone? I wouldn’t be surprised since Border Force is pretty much has same like military abuse qualities.

  8. I’d bet money the only readers the FairGo website has are PBers! Not one link to it in my facebook timeline since it got going, not even the Lib MPs I follow have shared it.

  9. What’s got myself and HI laughing today is Turnbull pronouncing he’s going to be PM for a long time and that he’ll win the next election.
    Yeah. Nah.

  10. They should be able to do the right Corbyn chant at Wimbledon any time they want:
    ‘Corbyn is a loser; Corbyn is a loser; Corbyn is a loster;’

  11. ML
    I heard it at the time and I thought that it had about as much cred as Turnbull’s claim that the Party is ‘united’.
    I am not sure why pollies repeat something that everyone knows is not only a bit untrue, but exactly the opposite of the truth.
    Why waste lies like that?

  12. ‘fess
    the FairGo website is the Libs being agile and innovative, doncha know?
    It was also really funny listening to various Libs being questioned on PM this evening about Abbott’s continuing destabilisation via his pronouncements. The spin was breath taking and the lack of authenticity stood out like the proverbials.

  13. From Coorey

    “As well as a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Hamburg, Mr Turnbull is also scheduled for an unofficial “pull aside” discussion with US President Donald Trump, who will be attending his first G20.

    Mr Turnbull could raise with Mr Trump concerns about an impending move by Washington to slap tariffs on steel imports.”

    Then again, Malcolm could “pull aside” and give him a Liverpool Kiss. Don’t think so.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/trade-terror-and-trump-to-dominate-malcolm-turnbulls-eightdays-abroad-20170702-gx39l4#ixzz4ll9ktUL9
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  14. Boerwar,
    It also reminded me of Turnbull announcing to the party faithful that there were no factions in the Lib party, back before the previous election and being laughed at by same party faithful.
    As to why they tell such patent lies, maybe like Trump, they seek to weaponise same.

  15. Hmmm…

    The cost to British banks just to relocate into the EU and out of the City is likely to be in the order of tens of billions…

    Just as well the assorted xenophobes, racists, sectarian haters, far Right and far Left nutters had a good hard look at Brexit and themselves before trying to drag the Brits back into the new Dark Ages.

    These same banks currently contribute around 65 billion quid in tax.

    Just as well Far Left Glorious Loser Corbyn is across this sort of detail, eh?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/brexit-could-cost-uk-banks-223bn/news-story/94a0ae05c572a9a93c4346703aedbbe6

  16. ML:

    I checked out Fair Go when it first came out and regarded it as akin to a university project by a political science student – the Young Liberal equivalent of Quadrant. I haven’t been back, but have been amused by PBers’ tales of the latest stories it hosts.

  17. ML
    Yep. Turnbull was booed in absentia the other day at some NSW Liberal Party meeting which was being addressed by his colleague Abbott.
    And always remember: ‘Liberals united will never be defeated.’

  18. Boerwar
    That report on the effect on the banks/economy you posted in relation to Brexit is just terrifying.
    Surely, the UK is going to go down the gurglar?

  19. On the car radio this afternoon was Rowan Dean with the 2GB shock jock. Honestly, Daffy Duck is an intellectual genius compared with Dean.

    Just who is Turnbull trying to impress these days when he speaks on TV – the voters of Australia or the Liberal party membership? He sounds so insincere; just like the smooth talking financial conman that he really is.

  20. “This is the iconic Tanah Lot temple in Bali, soon to be the site of a Trump Tower resort.”
    Please tell me that’s a joke.

  21. ML
    One of history’s interesting things is how citizens of ex-Imperial metropolitan countries cope with the consequences of losing Empire – both during the decline and during the fall.

    IMO, Brexit may be the last gasp twitch of British imperial thought.

    Brexit-related symptoms of post-imperial traumatic stress disorder include:

    (1) The appeals to British superiority during Brexit
    (2) The thinking that maybe the British Commonwealth would form a structure for post-Brexit trade deals.
    (3) The thinking that Britain would be setting the terms of conditions to the EU – despite the British economy being a sixth as large as the EU economy.
    The wishful thinking nature of much of the pre-negotations Brexit commentary is now daily becoming more and more obvious.
    It is in the nature of the two year negotiation hiatus that nearly all of the immediate Brexit outcomes will be bad for Britain.

  22. This Government is dedicated to screwing the poor and the workers.

    That’s why they are so dependent upon bullshit, distractions, media mates and dogwhistling to get elected. Their real program is ballot box poison and has to be kept hidden until safely in Government with a secure majority.

  23. Isn’t Quaedvlieg the moron who said the Border Force were going to don blackshirts and stop people at random in Melbourne to check their papers?

  24. Citizen:

    I recently watched a Sky News video with Rowan Dean, Ross Cameron and Piers Akerman. It was the ultimate axis of Grumpy Old Men, all of them railing about how Abbott Needs To Come Back and Save The Liberal Party!

    Too funny.

  25. Isn’t Quaedvlieg the moron who said the Border Force were going to don blackshirts and stop people at random in Melbourne to check their papers?

    Yes that’s my recollection also.

  26. It’s quite depressing to realise that Australia could be subjected to Liberal party infighting for up to two more years. No proper government, the economy down the gurgler, energy price rises out of control, the vast majority of people becoming less well off and so on…

    Still, the Americans have another three and a half years of suffering under Trump, while the Brits face years of gloom and despair.

  27. Talking of the fairgo, finished watching fargo s.3 on sbs. Thought it excellent, though the claim,as to being based on a true story, is about as credible as the fairgo site.

  28. It is best I think to ignore Trump’s antics and look at what he is trying to distract from, as others have already said. Americans who want Trump deserve their day in the sun, They have their candidate in charge. They want their guns, they get their guns, it is their citizens they are killing.
    Trump is doing us all a favour. There could not be a better president in terms of highlighting the end game of right-wing narcissistic selfish ideology. The Left, Liberal, Democrat et al political movements can only gain from the buffoonery of the 45th.

  29. “A former New South Wales Labor boss who intended to hand misused electoral roll information to a union official has been fined $4,000, after a magistrate was asked to take his “very, very” large mortgage into account.”
    I assume the lawyer adjusted his fee appropriately given we wouldn’t want anyone with a “very, very large mortgage” to have to pay more than a pittance.

  30. Lizzie

    Oh how I wish that Quaedvlieg’s misdemeanour could reflect badly on the Potato.

    You’re out of luck on that.

  31. confessions @ #641 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 8:08 pm

    Citizen:
    I recently watched a Sky News video with Rowan Dean, Ross Cameron and Piers Akerman. It was the ultimate axis of Grumpy Old Men, all of them railing about how Abbott Needs To Come Back and Save The Liberal Party!
    Too funny.

    Caricatures! All of them!

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