BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Dan Gulberry (**Repost – apologies for earlier)

    Using the UNS calculators, those figures would not give a Labour majority – the bar for Labour is very high now…

    Although the strong anti-Tory tactical voting we used to see is due a ramp-up

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Matt Holden has a good crack at Abbott the Energiser bunny.
    Nick O’Malley writes about the age of the party faithless.
    Matthew Knott has more on the civil war inside the Greens being set to escalate with leaked internal emails raising questions about the power of “faceless” party officials to dictate how MPs vote in Parliament.
    Lenore Taylor says that it’s a downward spiral when politicians and the media fail their true purposes.
    Simon Birmingham’s big win on schools funding has opened up wide divisions between different factions of both the Liberals and the Greens, writes Ben Eltham.
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column is worth a look.
    Matt Wade writes that the 2016 census, released on Tuesday, showed we’re opting for apartments and townhouses in unprecedented numbers. And it’s not just in CBDs.
    We need more than just extra water to save the Murray-Darling Basin.
    And if combustible cladding isn’t enough a frightening series of “spontaneous” glass balcony explosions at Melbourne apartment buildings has highlighted the dangers of cheap and faulty construction products flooding into Australia.

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Richard Wolffe puts it to us that Trump and reality have become untethered.
    Barack Obama has called on the world to stand up for tolerance, moderation and respect for others – warning that sectarian politics could lead to chaos and violence.
    Imre Salusinszky on the life of the “office oldie”.
    The “lazy” and “self-indulgent” Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis after a horror week that exposed deep wounds from which it may never recover, the head of the influential Institute of Public Affairs think tank has warned. Ha ha! The ultimate admonition.
    Is Melania Trump just hanging in with the marriage just for her little son?
    Protection rackets common in Sydney?
    A pretty good contribution from Annabel Crabbe on Pyne doing the unimaginable – apologising!
    Fergus Hunter writes that at least 325 serving and former Australian Defence Force personnel died by suicide between 2001 and 2015, according to a major new report that highlights the dangers leaving the military can pose to vulnerable servicemen. Young ex-servicemen were most at risk, the report found.
    We have many people forced to live in their cars.

  4. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Yet another multiple shooting in the US. Will they ever learn? I think not.
    These Commissioners says that harshly punishing young offenders only makes the problem worse.
    Bernardi now has a foothold in Victorian politics.

    A nice little contribution from Reg Lynch.

    Matt Golding channels Monty Python to illustrate the Abbott/Turnbull issue.

    A delicious effort from Alan Moir on Abbott’s 10 point plan.

    Mark Knight brings out the famous wrecking ball.

  5. MSNBC Producer Reminds Trump That ‘Morning Joe’ Is Seeing Its Highest Ratings Ever

    Trump is showing that he isn’t just more interested in attacking his critics than doing his job, but also that there is nothing he won’t lie about.

    Responding to Donald Trump’s attack on Morning Joe’s “low ratings,” MSNBC producer Jesse Rodriguez took to Twitter on Saturday morning to remind the president that Morning Joe, hosted by Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, is seeing high viewership.

    Instead of spewing falsehoods about everybody else’s ratings, perhaps the President of the United States should start worrying about his own dismal ratings.

  6. Jake Tapper Tells Trump To Stop Throwing Tantrums And Get To Work In Blistering Tweetstorm

    “Attacking media does nothing for the troop in harm’s way, the hungry child in Appalachia or inner city, the unemployed factory worker.”

    At the end of the day, Tapper is right that the president’s tweets are counterproductive, but attacking his enemies is all Trump knows how to do. Trump has spent a lifetime showing that engaging in public feuds is one of the only things he is good at, and the American people should not have expected that to change after he was elected.

    This is what happens when you elect a reality TV star to run the free world.

  7. Trump voter-fraud panel’s data request a gold mine for hackers, experts warn

    Cybersecurity specialists are warning that President Donald Trump’s voter-fraud commission may unintentionally expose voter data to even more hacking and digital manipulation.

    Their concerns stem from a letter the commission sent to every state this week, asking for full voter rolls and vowing to make the information “available to the public.” The requested information includes full names, addresses, birth dates, political party and, most notably, the last four digits of Social Security numbers. The commission is also seeking data such as voter history, felony convictions and military service records.
    Digital security experts say the commission’s request would centralize and lay bare a valuable cache of information that cyber criminals could use for identity theft scams — or that foreign spies could leverage for disinformation schemes.

    “It is beyond stupid,” said Nicholas Weaver, a computer science professor at the University of California at Berkeley.

  8. Morning all. Thanks for the analysis William. Intersting on the seat balance in Qld and SA. I wonder how far off Pyne’s seat of Sturt is for Labor now?

    Meanwhile I think this article gives a good summary of Rhiannon and Abbott. Both want to makeover their parties to match their own ideology.
    Abbott wants to “Make Australians work again” (on minimum wage).
    Rhiannon wants to Make Australian welfare great again (without a job).

    I think both represent ideologies deeply out of touch with average voters. Both use their political parties to propel forward their personal crusades, for a conservative religious state (Abbott) or a radical left wing one (Rhiannon). I hope both fail.

  9. @Bk

    I think the only party that hasn’t in their ranks being called “faceless” is the liberal and national parties…

  10. Phoenix Red
    “but attacking his enemies is all Trump knows how to do. ”

    Hmmm, reminds me of an Aussie ex-PM. At least his slogan isn’t:
    “Make Australia sane again!”

  11. Thanks BK for the roundup. That story about the 300+ ex servicemen suicides is sad. I see a lot of parallels between the Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq wars. All launched by conservative PMs for reasons other than national defense. All unpopular. All ultimately futile. It must be damaging for soldiers’ morale.

    Have a good day all.

  12. socrates @ #15 Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 8:28 am

    Thanks BK for the roundup. That story about the 300+ ex servicemen suicides is sad. I see a lot of parallels between the Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq wars. All launched by conservative PMs for reasons other than national defense. All unpopular. All ultimately futile. It must be damaging for soldiers’ morale.
    Have a good day all.

    From what I have seen it is much worse in the US.

  13. I was mildly intrigued by this title
    and discovered, to my amusement, that Roskam’s beef is that the Libs are failing to adopt all the harsh policies of the IPA.

    John Roskam, who on Tuesday hosted Tony Abbott for a speech in which he directly challenged Malcolm Turnbull’s policy agenda, on Friday blasted both men for failing to deliver philosophical direction to the party, and took aim at “so-called conservatives” Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann.

    “When the Liberal Party raises taxes, increases government spending, imposes extra regulations and red tape and does not stand up on key cultural questions – you must ask the question: is the Liberal Party as we’ve known it since the 1940s exhausted?”

    The IPA has deep links with the Liberal Party and Mr Roskam is well connected with MPs, but they have had major disagreements over superannuation, free speech and Mr Roskam’s repeated failure to win preselection in Victoria.

    He principally blamed “Turnbull and the cabinet” for the party’s problems, and was critical of Mr Dutton and Mr Cormann, declaring “the so-called conservatives in cabinet have been completely ineffectual when it comes to economics” and labelling Mr Dutton’s citizenship reforms “tokenistic”.

    They’re just not cruel enough for Roskam, you see.

  14. Jonathan Leake‏Verified account @Jonathan__Leake · 15h15 hours ago

    #GrenfellTower residents are still having rent deducted from their bank accounts for their burnt out flats admits council @rbkc @BBCr4today

  15. Lizzie

    Yes, I am sure Roskam will think they have been too namby pamby under Truffles and the real solution was to increase the flogging of the poor until their morale improves.

  16. The Greens are on Agenda claiming that (a) they were gazzumped by the Cross Benchers, that (b) the Cross Benchers sold out at a lower price and (c) that Gonski Me Too represents a major victory for Greens’ negotiation tactics.
    Self-delusion is, of course, the first requirement for those who think that losing in politics is better than winning.

  17. Markjs

    The point has been well made that the details of the agreement were not fully understood before the vote.

  18. VG comment left at the Guardian article about penalty rates cut.

    Off to work today to do the same job, at the same place as last week for less money. But don’t dare answer back lest you have succumbed to the sin of envy and the politics of class war. Not only do they cut your pay, they tell you how to feel about and how to understand it.

  19. Borewar and BK
    Thanks and no doubt true about UK and US servicemen. It is not just the stress of battle. Even those who have survived have probably all seen friends killed, for what now looks like nothing good.

  20. Markjs
    “$3Billion MORE taxpayer’s money for non-gvt schools & $9Billion LESS taxpayer’s money for public schools is “needs based”???”
    Those grammar schools NEED the money. New rowing shells and boat houses do not buy themselves.

  21. DG
    ‘Westminster voting intentions:

    LAB: 45%
    CON: 39%
    5% UKIP:
    5% GRN: 2%’

    I can’t recall the Good Intentions Party ever running a country.

    Corbyn’s major betrayal of left values, anti racist values, anti-xenophobic values, pro asylum seeker values, pro-communalist values, pro-internationalist values, and anti nationalist values was whether or not he supported Brexit.
    There can be absolutely no doubt at all that it is Britain’s poor who will suffer disproportionately as a result of (a) Corbyn’s failure to become PM and (b) Corbyn’s support for Brexit.

  22. Socrates
    Apart from a few nutters like Nicolic and Hastie who have public skin in the game, all the folk I have talked to about Afghanistan who have some sort of first hand knowledge of it resent being sent off to fight in a losing war.

  23. No point in ‘winning ‘ if you sell out every principle or ideal thst you ever stood for and.end up being a pale reflection of your opponents, in order to ‘win’.

    That’s losing.

  24. Thanks for that link markjs. This says it all for me.

    But far from seeing Gonski 2 as “a victory for the children”, public education advocates like Trevor Cobbold point out that the new package has some real flaws. Perhaps the most salient is the government’s new mandate of an 80/20 split in funding given to the non-government and public systems. This means that the Commonwealth will move to fund 80 per cent of the “schooling resource standard” of non-government schools, and 20 per cent of the standard for public schools.

    Why the 80/20 split? Well, just because. There appears to be no genuine “needs-based” rationale for the Commonwealth to give four times the funding share to non-government schools as it gives to public schools. Public schools are, almost universally, the neediest schools.

    As a result, public schools will get much less than they would have under the Gonski 1 model – perhaps as much as $9 billion less. In contrast, non-government schools will get around $3 billion more. The 80/20 split appears to entrench a generous deal for independent schools, which have been notably silent during the Gonski 2 debate.

  25. confessions Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 9:00 am

    “Is Melania Trump just hanging in with the marriage just for her little son?

    It would certainly explain why she stays with him. I can’t believe she isn’t embarrassed by his behaviour, esp the way he treats women.


    Lots of internet scuttlebutt regarding certain ‘dalliances’ …….

  26. “I’m not interested in politics. In the personalities of politics.” Malcolm Turnbull says standing in front of a sandpit. 🙂

  27. There has become too great a disparity between the rich and the poor now for cries of ‘Class warfare’ to resonate as much as it used to. David Marr is right.

  28. “Corbyn’s major betrayal of left values, anti racist values,”
    Corbyn was arrested for opposing Apartheid. I’m not sure how many Blairites were.

  29. You think Corbyn resigning would yield a new Blair but it won’t , the current reality is that it will yield a new Corbyn. If you think otherwise you’re the one not living in the real world.

    Don’t assume that the Bore Bot thinks.

  30. ‘But far from seeing Gonski 2 as “a victory for the children”, public education advocates like Trevor Cobbold point out that the new package has some real flaws’

    Where were these advocates during the Conski negotiations? All I seemed to hear from were supporters of the Con.

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