First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.
Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.
There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.
It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.
Hola Pegasus!
I’ve heard about Green Bans but this one is a doozy! A democratically-elected Senator gets the royal order of the boot by her party.
Eek!
ItzaDream
Truffles performing “Humility” would be the real side splitter.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-afghanistan-robotics-robot-inventors-teenage-girls-first-global-challenge-kabul-citadel-travel-a7818191.html
Jonathan Blanks, a media commentator and researcher at the Cato Institute, tweeted: “I feel safer now that we’ve denied a once in a lifetime opportunity to a group of girls whose country we’ve been bombing since their birth.”
….
Verizon’s former vice president of communications Anthony Citrano called the decision “infuriating”.
‘Fess,
Fake/ Flake. Same same. 🙂
Making America Great Again….one tweet at a time.
ItzaDream Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 9:14 am
Turnbull trying to fake sincerity is ROTFL
*****************************************
Always be sincere… even if you don’t mean it.
Harry Truman
C@t:
This spat in the Greens is indeed a doozy. Listening to Rhiannon it doesn’t sound like she’s backing down from her position.
Lee Rhiannon covertly making the point NSW Greens control their own money and their own pre-selections. Take that, Richard!
I look forward to getting the most informed and unbiased analysis of NSW Green here.
Who can they pray to if they can’t pray to Rupert?
LOL Rhiannon is busy extolling Corbyn as the Guiding Star for the Greens!
He lost by 60 seats against May, the Mother of All Dud Campaigners.
The Trots seek irrelevance like a fox the lamb.
They have the capacity to wreck, to delay, to fuss at the margins, to obfuscate, and to extol their own virtues.
And to deliver more suffering to their real collateral damage victims: the poor.
And back we go to disunity in the Liberal Party. 🙂
Murphy riding shotgun for Mal
Dan Gulberry
Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 6:01 am
Corrected formatting.
Westminster voting intentions:
LAB: 45%
CON: 39%
LDEM: 5%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 2%,
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/881203006737440768
#OhJeremyCorbyn
Bah, Theresa May & Brexit.
The journey to Brexit will bring the Government and the UK to their collective knees. Failure, humiliation, regret, remorse, commotion, spite, contempt, division, recrimination and fury lie ahead for the entire country. Corbyn may think he will be the political beneficiary of Tory betrayal and defeat, but it will all be for nought unless Labour renounce Brexit.
Gerard thinks Tony should be given Defence.
That would be very effective – NOT!
Lugubrious Hendo doing his best to embody soooooooo saaaaaaaaaaaaad.
Grab bag of lost causes
Labor is only the party of unity at present.
Cavalcade of ugly dreams
David’s on a roll
Tell Tony he’s dreaming! 🙂
And …..
how’s my jacket eh, butch enuf?
People’s Electricity bills are going up with the gold-plating of the grid!
It isn’t possible to wholeheartedly endorse a political party whose federal parliamentarians (with one exception) have concluded that what Australia really needs is yet another centrist party. We have a parliament with a surfeit of centrists. Tinkering with the Coalition’s schools funding policy so that a horrendous policy might become merely bad is a poor use of the Greens’ position in the Senate. We need political parties that are bold, vigorous, and imaginative enough to widen the public’s concept of what policy options are available for us. We don’t need the Greens to legitimize bad policy simply because careerist parliamentarians and myopic journalists have decided that this is what pragmatic people do.
Moving to the centre to remain at or slightly above 10% of the national vote makes no sense tactically, and it delivers poor policy.
Why does Insiders continually have Henderson on the show? He adds nothing to the show at all.
N
Nice to see that you are still delivering the Battle Cry of the Losers.
ItzaDream
Not ‘butch’ enough to erase this 😆
*Turns off Insiders*
There’ s no point when it is just the Marr/Henderson show.
Tony Abbott: ‘Over 70s Rool OK!’
🙂
Marr and Murphy having fun mocking Gerard.
Poroti
ItzaDream
Not ‘butch’ enough to erase this
Nicholas
The Gs will have to face reality eventually: they have no enduring constituency they can call their own.
By all means, foam away about centralism. In the end politics is not only a matter of what you stand for. Above all it is a matter of who you stand for.
The Gs are more occupied by the what question than the who question. So they are doomed to irrelevance and to theatrics. Get used to it.
clipped post
Poroti
Thanks, Brilliant.
Gerard on the ropes is delicious. That’s why he’s there Fess – gigglesworth.
‘Presidential diaper might need changing’: Internet hilariously mocks ‘old man’ Trump’s latest Twitterstorm
….. it isn’t the media that is criticizing his tweets, it’s coming from his own party.
“It is damaging his presidency,” said Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) said in a CNN interview.
“Please just stop. This isn’t normal and it’s beneath the dignity of your office,” tweeted Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) after the Brzezinski attacks.
“Stop it! The Presidential platform should be used for more than bringing people down,” tweeted Sen. Lisa Murowski (R-AK).
But those online had mixed reactions. Many wanted Trump to stop the “insanity.” Others, however, want to see Trump continue to implode.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/presidential-diaper-might-need-changing-internet-hilariously-mocks-old-man-trumps-latest-twitterstorm/
Confessions
Hendo there for contrast. Having a black hole of gloom and drear makes everything next to it appear brighter, fresher. Also for the occasional lols when he bangs on about Menzies or commie wharfies in the 1940s or 50s .
Pell verboten?
Pell is not short of influential backers:
Here we go
I
Timing is everything.
Onto Pell now.
George is innocent. George says so. 🙂
Insiders serves no purpose at all apart from giving the journalists present some validation that their opinions are in any way worthwhile.
There passing the plate around for George!
Poroti
Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 9:44 am
Confessions
Hendo there for contrast. Having a black hole of gloom and drear makes everything next to it appear brighter, fresher. Also for the occasional lols when he bangs on about Menzies or commie wharfies in the 1940s or 50s .
In his reverie, Henderson bangs on about Communists there same way others bang on about Tony Blair.
If you have 20 minutes, Rachel Maddow dissects Trump’s tactics very effectively here, and also gives an insight into the kind of stuff Abbott is pursuing (to a lesser degree) and others on the fringes like Hanson. Excellent discussion:
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show
(Should be the first clip – 22 minutes …. the word focus in the background behind her)
ItzaDream,
You can breathe easier now. Marr has just said the same thing on Insiders that he reported to you the other night. 🙂
Poroti:
Perhaps I just find him too depressing for a Sunday morning. I’m also not a fan of Marr either. To me he’s like a pompous windbag.
C@T
I regretted name dropping. Should have said “I heard, horse’s mouth ..”
Gerard agrees with Paul Kelly. Well, that’s a surprise.
Gerard vewy upset
“Di Natale is a bit of a flake isn’t he?”
Not true: he turned to water before hitting the ground.