Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. @Zoomste
    Haha

    The party in power wants to also be a party in Opposition when they in trouble so they focus on Labor.

    Not smart Senator Cash.

  2. Good Morning

    Cat.

    My view is that the right have successfully drowned out the point made about the plebiscite from the gay community that Labor listened to. Murdoch has given virtually no space to the concept that the plebiscite is so harmful a way of going about it that the gay community will wait years for Labor to do a parliament vote rather than have a plebiscite.

    To me that explains the disconnect. People just don’t realise the harm that would be unleashed. They did not live the Tasmanian experience of ending homosexual illegality.
    They did not feel the impact of those debates and the harm caused to people from that debate.

    So to them being democratic by having a vote by the people sounds democratic and puts them in control not the politicians which is why the big in favour of it.

  3. Abbott took 198 days to lose his first 14 consecutive Newspolls, and 490 days to lose 30.

    If Newspolls were reporting at the same frequency now, Turnbull would hit his 30 on 30/01/2018.

    However, it took Turnbull 280 days to lose his 14 consecutive Newspolls, 82 longer. For Abbott, the 15th came a fortnight after the 14th, but for Turnbull it has not, so making the comparison for the 15th will make the difference larger. Even if Newspoll were to release every fortnight from now (they won’t), then Turnbull would still have longer than Abbott in his 30 Newspoll stint.

  4. The reason for the Medicare thing is simple. Experts have warned about creating honeypots of data online. Yet the government is rushing down the Digital First road to save some cash.

    Ignoring that self same advice from the experts. There was a reason moving to digital was slow under Labor. Listening to expert advice is why.

  5. In response to Dio’s question from late last night (the sandman was calling me), managing workplace relationships can be complex because there is no ‘one size policy fits all scenarios’. Having good Conflict of Interest, Code of Conduct policies and a statement of core values policies are a good starting point.

  6. citizen @ #46 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 9:31 am

    The ACT Liberals, currently controlled by the hard right, are attacking the Territory government for allowing union representatives to advise school students on their rights at work.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-liberals-probe-union-recruitment-in-school-20170630-gx1wko.html

    This is a disgrace!

    How will those poor hard working businesses be able to exploit the kiddies if they know their rights? 🙁

  7. @ C@Tmomma
    I really don’t think many voters actually care that much about SSM. They think in theory it should be a thing, when asked, but are they really that fussed that it isn’t, or their daily lives disturbed. And the implications of a plebiscite escape them – the cost, the hate unleashed, and the risk of a ‘Brexit outcome’, although we at least have compulsory voting. It is exactly as the Cons with or without Turnbull want it. Keep it in the too hard can, and keep kicking it down the road.

    I am in a same sex relationship of three decades*, and not one family member, otherwise very loving and supportive and who treat ‘us’ no differently than if we were the other way around, truly, but not one has voluntarily spoken of SSM marriage support, nor would I believe change their vote on it. If asked, polled, oh yes, they’d say of course they support it.

    PTMD is right. It’s a hard and long fight, as the Irish experience showed.

    It should be a Labor Govt that gets it up; I want it to be a Labor Govt that gets it up, and I’m here to wait it out. We fought, and got bashed and arrested, for recognition of existence. We are married in the eyes of whomever it matters. We live a contented peaceful existence. Discrimination exists, often subtle, but they are the lesser. Whatever other status or benefits state recognised marriage would bring can wait afaiac.

    *which of course puts me in an older generation, and I can’t speak for the younger ones, they have a different prism, and all power to them.

  8. US Governor Chris Christie:
    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-04/governor-chris-christie-pilloried-over-his-day-at-the-beach/8675658

    “Beaches are usually packed on the Fourth of July weekend in the US, but not in New Jersey, where Mr Christie ordered them closed last week as part of a state government shutdown over a budget standoff.”

    Dumb Americans never learn.

    “But the beaches were not apparently closed to the Governor and his family, who were photographed enjoying the sun on an empty beach on Sunday.”

  9. Itza – I agree that SSM is not on the ‘Must’ list of most voters.

    As other commentors have said, however, it has a high level of support in the community and most voters just think whatever has to be done to ‘legalise’ it should be done and then we can move on to other stuff.

  10. From memory, one of the pollsters DID ask a double-barrel question about the plebiscite some time ago, and the percentage who supported it in theory dropped off dramatically once it was pointed out how much the cost would be, and that the result wouldn’t even bind the MPs to vote the same way.

    I suspect the same thing would happen every time the question was asked like this. The reality is that our country is full of people who only have a superficial understanding of most issues.

  11. The important thing to remember about Ireland with ME is that it required Constitutional change, so a referendum was the only course.

    Would they have taken the popular vote route if that was not the case?

    Here that is not the case, so a plebiscite is not required and meaningless!

    Has any other country held a plebiscite on this issue?

  12. Old time movie review section.
    Masterpiece from yesteryear.

    DELIVERANCE

    Wonderful performances by actors and magnificent scenery.
    This film has provided a base for many subsequent movies and a basis as a role model for countless hardy backwoods and mountain men and women of America.

    “Make American Great” is the message conveyed and the ascendancy of Mr. Trump the great, perhaps the greatest, President of the United States owes a great deal to the legacy of this wonderful childrens’ story.

    5 Stars and a gold elephant stamp for this movie of the week which many thought was simply entertainment but turned out to be a documentary.
    ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ 🐘

  13. Just another reminder of the IPA influence.

    American anti-tax activist Grover Norquist has become the most formidable crusader for not just small government but minimal government, summed up in his expressed desire “to shrink government down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub”. Interestingly, Norquist was recently in Australia at the invitation of the right-wing Institute of Public Affairs, whose influence reaches deep inside the Turnbull government. Prominent backbencher Tim Wilson is a former IPA policy director while ministers such as Mitch Fifield and Mathias Cormann have strong links to it.

    Reducing the scope of government action is by no means an unalloyed blessing. The withdrawal of government, for example, from the energy field, has seen spectacular rises in costs to the consumer, perhaps not an entirely unexpected outcome from privatisation.

    Even darker implications flow from the lack of accountability through outsourcing, privatisation and globalisation, while at the same time increasing inequality by dismantling the welfare state. Without robust government, nothing stands between the citizen and a rapacious corporate sector, intent on profit at any cost.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/the-fallacy-of-efficient-small-government-lives-on-despite-reagan-and-thatchers-lessons-20170630-gx2f5x.html

  14. Looks like DT readers aren’t terribly interested in the political coverage but do seem interested in Emily. Top ten articles at the moment:

    Emily blames ‘big boobs’ for no work
    Pacquiao camp wants Horn rematch
    Radio hosts in shameless ratings grab
    Different lives of Horn and Pacquiao
    Coldest it’s been for 110 years
    Emily’s boobs ‘too big for jobs’
    Baird’s tears at daughter’s wedding
    Hunt for ruthless killer who gunned down dad
    First thing Horn will buy with $1m
    Early Mail: Storm missing 10 players

  15. trog sorrenson @ #25 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 8:11 am

    Question.
    Is domestic solar plus battery storage being sabotaged by elements within government?
    Standards Australia – with its somewhat diffuse and unaccountable board – has come up with a regulation that, if enacted, would kill battery storage, at least with lithium ion batteries such as Powerwall 2.
    Under these draft regulations it will continue to be OK to store unlimited gas bottles, or plastic containers full of petrol, in your garage, but NOT a properly designed and managed lithium ion battery pack.

    Answer.

    You seem to have forgotten that exploding lithium-ion batteries are what grounded the Dreamliner …

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-lithium-ion-batteries-grounded-the-dreamliner/

    … not to mention being responsible for hundreds of instances of exploding hoverboards, laptops, apple iphones and samsung phones. Even NASA has trouble with exploding lithium-ion batteries …

    https://www.wired.com/2016/10/samsung-isnt-one-lithium-ion-problems-just-ask-nasa/

    In fact, there is a fair case to be made that small unshielded lithium-ion batteries may be intrinsically unsafe …

    https://www.wired.com/2017/03/lithium-ion-batteries-turn-skin-searing-firebombs/

    I’m sure suitably designed lithium battery casings can be made reasonably safe, but just at the moment, anyone who installs a high capacity lithium battery inside their garage or house is just asking for trouble.

  16. P1

    In other words. Batteries ok. Safety precautions of course needed. You know like storing gas cylinders for the barbecue or for heating when gas not piped to area.

  17. trog sorrenson @ #27 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 8:36 am

    Garnaut points out the irrelevance of Finkel’s clean energy target. We are going to get there anyway simply by expansion of renewables plus storage. How about a little ambition?

    Ganaut certainly has ambition – he now works for Zen Energy, a company that sells solar batteries. So he’s about as reliable on this subject as RenewEconomy.

  18. Another court defeat for Trump

    AP: Court rules that EPA overstepped when it tried to delay rules requiring companies to monitor, reduce methane leaks. trib.al/v0JVKXN

  19. GetUp: . @MichaelWestBiz delivering opening statement to senate inquiry into corporate tax avoidance. Things are about to heat up

  20. P1

    I’m sure suitably designed lithium battery casings can be made reasonably safe, but just at the moment, anyone who installs a high capacity lithium battery inside their garage or house is just asking for trouble.

    All individual cells within a Powerwall are fused and managed by a management system.
    Anyone who drives a Tesla is sitting right on top of one of these packs. Not zero risk, just a hell of a lot safer than driving a car with 50 litres of petrol in a tank at the back.
    Maybe we should also have regulations to prevent people using mobile phones and laptops with lithium ion batteries.

  21. “You seem to have forgotten that exploding lithium-ion batteries are what grounded the Dreamliner … ”
    Which are a different chemistry to Tesla’s and others’ lithium ion solar storage batteries.

  22. There’s different types of lithium Ion batteries. I’m part of a group of sailing boat owners that bulk purchased LiFePO4 type batteries. They don’t catch fire. One of the guys, an electrical engineer , set up his charger incorrectly (typical engineer behaviour

  23. Compare the temperatures reached by a phone (a very tiny device with an extremely powerful processor pumping out heat and no room for ventilation because customers like thin phones), to the temperature reached by a powerwall (better ventilation and no CPU warming it up).

    Also, there’s a lot of regulations around install of batteries to keep people safe, not so much for hoverboards which you just buy from ebay.

  24. Effin emoji thingies.
    The engineer’s batteries were badly warped, but still worked. Others have had over/ under charge problems, with some warped cells, but no fires.
    The biggest problem is the lack of off the shelf monitoring/ management systems, they’re nearly all lead acid based.

  25. trog sorrenson @ #75 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Anyone who drives a Tesla is sitting right on top of one of these packs. Not zero risk, just a hell of a lot safer than driving a car with 50 litres of petrol in a tank at the back.
    Maybe we should also have regulations to prevent people using mobile phones and laptops with lithium ion batteries.

    As you point out, the risks of driving a telsa car are no greater than driving a petrol car. Cars explode, but we accept that risk. But how many people expect their iphones or galaxys to explode? And a phone battery stores less than 1/1000 of the energy of a powerwall.

    It is entirely reasonable to put standards in place about where they can be installed – i.e. not inside a garage or house (and preferably not even near one, without suitable fire-resistant shielding). It is foolish to claim this is part of some “conspiracy” against solar power when lithium batteries have such a propensity to explode.

  26. Josh Taylor‏Verified account
    @joshgnosis

    Tudge statement re @FarrellPF’s Medicare story. Says details aren’t enough to access health records.

    Paul Farrell‏Verified account @FarrellPF · 2h2 hours ago

    Alan Tudge’s statement really misses the point – this type of Medicare information is essential for identity fraud used for organised crime

  27. The Church’s tradition and canon law spanning back 1500 years taught that child sexual abuse is a crime that needed to be dealt with by punishments that we now only associate with the secular state, and which required imprisonment at the minimum. Seven papal and Council decrees dating back to the 12th century required clergy guilty of such crimes to be stripped of their status as priests and handed over (not just reported) to the civil authorities for punishment – irrespective of whether the civil law required it. In 1917, these decrees were repealed, and in 1922, the Church’s strictest form of secrecy was imposed on all information about these crimes

    (my block)

    Kieran Tapsell on the failure of Francis and the Vatican as they hide in the murky depths of cannon law:

    http://johnmenadue.com/kieran-tapsell-a-different-scorecard-on-pope-francis/

  28. @ P1 – you think it reasonable to forbid batteries to be stored on the wall of a garage, when it is permitted to do all sorts of things that are as dangerous or more so, such as;

    Store a battery in a car in a garage?
    Store petrol in a car in a garage?
    Store petrol in jerry cans in a garage?
    Store gas in cylinders in a garage?

  29. And P1 – can you point to a single (reputable) source talking about problems with overheating of batteries similar in size and purpose to the Powerwall 2?

    Yes, different batteries made by different companies, that are used and regulated in different ways have exploded. So what?

  30. This tax hearing is giving so much ammunition for Labor and the Greens. So stark I think even Hanson will use some of it to push her battler image.

  31. SA Liberal opposition leader Steve Marshall comes out with the usual lies in support of oppressed banks against the Stalinist SA government, threatening to tax them!!

    “Opposition Leader Steven Marshall said the public would welcome the bank levy being voted down by the Liberals.
    “I am 100 per cent convinced that nobody in South Australia wants more tax,” he said.
    “We believe unequivocally that SA is at a tipping point, the SA economy is teetering.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-03/sa-budget-bank-levy-liberals-opposed/8674304

    No Steve, I would be happy to pay more tax if it stopped the state going broke. And how exactly does taxing a few big banks, all of which are headquartered in Melbourne or Sydney, harm the SA economy? Fewer Bentley sales in Toorak? So what?

    One of the perverse benefits of big banks centralising everything interstate, is that there is no reason not to tax them. We have nothing to lose. They will still loan money in SA if it is profitable to do so, just as they do now.

  32. political_alert: Shadow Minister for Human Services @LindaBurneyMP will comment on reports of a Medicare Data Breach at 12:45pm, Caboolture #auspol

  33. political_alert: Plibersek: “It is absolutely critical that the government explain, today, immediately, how many [#Medicare] records have been breached”

  34. voice endeavour @ #86 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 11:24 am

    @ P1 – you think it reasonable to forbid batteries to be stored on the wall of a garage, when it is permitted to do all sorts of things that are as dangerous or more so, such as;
    Store a battery in a car in a garage?
    Store petrol in a car in a garage?
    Store petrol in jerry cans in a garage?
    Store gas in cylinders in a garage?

    You have made my point for me. Once you get above trivial capacities (e.g. 25litres in the case of petrol, or 45kg in the case of LPG), there are standards that apply to all these. What’s wrong with adding standards for high capacity batteries? Seems perfectly reasonable to me. And if the standards end up saying they can be installed in your garage with suitable safeguards, then fine.

    Don’t let your ‘enthusiasm’ for solar override your common sense.

  35. ItzaDream @ #95 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 11:47 am

    There are 8 states where smoking marijuana is legal

    Although it’s still a crime at the Federal level. Obama was nice enough to instruct the Feds to not bother enforcing the Federal law in states where it’s legal. Trump/Sessions (and especially, Sessions) seem eager to reverse that policy. Probably on the grounds that “Obama did it, so we must do the exact opposite”.

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