Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:
• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.
• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.
• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.
Elsewhere:
• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.
• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.
• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.
DanielKogoy: Israel seizes solar panels from Palestinians
independent.co.uk/news/world/mid…
Sorry link
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-solar-panels-palestinians-seize-dutch-government-donate-jubbet-al-dhib-area-c-a7820711.html
1) A litre of pterol contains 9.7 kWh of energy. A Tesla Powerwall has 13.7. Do the sums on comparative risk.
2) Society should be prepared to manage acceptable risks to mitigate carbon pollution.
Tut-tut. My tired fingers. Referring to change of policy by Vatican.
“the dark days were NOT as dark, after all.”
Lizzie
We really wouldn’t expect it otherwise.
Gt
Ar$eholes.
A R
Although it’s still a crime at the Federal level
Yessiree. The Rolling Stone link (here again) in my post unravels some of the complexities, esp state by state, and suggests that business interests will override Fed reactionary conservatism and the momentum will roll on.
Lizzie
Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 12:09 pm
Tut-tut. My tired fingers. Referring to change of policy by Vatican.
“the dark days were NOT as dark, after all.”
Caught me by surprise that one, Lizzie. But I wonder though just how much abuse was uncovered, reported, punished in those preceding 1500 years. It is very much a matter of our times, and our very recent times. And Julia Gillard should take much credit. We are the only country in the world to have set up the likes of the RC, and it has led to Pell, whatever that may amount to.
trog sorrenson @ #103 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 12:06 pm
The standards are about saving lives, not mitigating pollution. The proposed standard apparently says:
What’s unreasonable about this? It does not prohibit household installation, nor add to the installation cost.
ItzaDream
The thing that is the most unnatural is celibacy. Some people poo-poo it, but I think celibacy has a lot to answer for.
Briefly – ‘Boris’ at it:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/austerity-over-philip-hammond-hint-public-weary-cuts-theresa-may-tories-government-a7821931.html
I can see where Standards Australia are coming from. A lithium battery suffering from thermal runaway is a big problem, particularly given the difficulties of extinguishing the fire.
Different battery chemistries do have different probabilities of thermal runaway attached to them and the standard should reflect these differences in probability.
‘I can see where Standards Australia are coming from.’
Pedants corner:
I can see where Standards Australia is coming from.
Not that I am criticising Grimace – journalists make this sort of mistake all the time.
‘The thing that is the most unnatural is celibacy. Some people poo-poo it, but I think celibacy has a lot to answer for.’
Except unwanted pregnancies…
Grimace
I think what the solar/battery industry is concerned about is the regulations not reflecting the objective risk. Even one of the Standards Assoc board members is alleged to have concerns about the draft language.
‘Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has also indicated that an end to the 1 per cent pay cap was possible, placing further pressure on the Chancellor, who is committed to bringing UK spending in to line.’
Same as in Australia, bringing spending ‘into line’ is only a thing when discussing wages, welfare or education etc.
Never ever a factor when defence or terrorism spending or corporate welfare is discuused.
lizzie @ #110 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 12:29 pm
The entire Judeo-Christian take on sexuality/sexual morality is unnatural and has been rendered functionally obsolete by:
1. Birth control.
2. Effective prevention and treatment options for STD’s.
3. Equal (or at least, improved) social status for women.
4. Medical advances that make pregnancy generally safe and survivable.
In a world without those things, making a big moral deal out of sex may have made a certain amount of sense. Though it still probably had more to do with exerting social and political control than any genuine concern for public/women’s health or child welfare.
Adrian
That too, but mostly a typical ‘Boris’ niggle attempt on someone he perceives as a rival.
U.S. no longer a ‘friend’ in Merkel election program
In their campaign program for the German election, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have dropped the term “friend” in describing the relationship with the United States.
But the words “friend” and “friendship” are missing from the latest election program – entitled “For a Germany in which we live well and happily” – which Merkel and CSU leader Horst Seehofer presented on Monday ahead of a Sept. 24 election.
The change in wording underscores how relations between Berlin and Washington have deteriorated since U.S. President Donald Trump entered the White House in January.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/03/u-s-longer-friend-merkel-election-program.html
That and appeasing the church groups which make up his base who still think Reefer Madness was an accurate documentary.
Also that whole hardline “War on Drugs” thing, which doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do but has the convenient side effect of targeting young people (esp. those in college), poor people and African Americans – all of whom can be declared felons and lose voting rights in many states, helping Republicans.
Plane Banner Tells Chris Christie To ‘Get The Hell Off’ The State Beach He Shut Down
From one-time presidential front-runner to a disgraced – soon-to-be former – governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie sure has come a long way.
The large banner flying over the Jersey Shore is a direct response to Christie Fourth of July visit to Island State Beach State Park, one of the parks Christie ordered shut down because of the state’s government shutdown.
Despite his order, recently released photos show Christie and his family enjoying time on the beach, signaling that the governor – among the most popular in the country – simply doesn’t care anymore.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/03/plane-banner-tells-chris-christie-get-hell-off-state-beach-shut.html
Socrates
I honestly don’t think this is a clever move by Marshall and the SA Liberals at all. Many people see the banks as the bad guys and SA Labor (who are almost miraculous campaigners) will campaign this as Marshall being the candidate for the banks and the big end of town, caring more about donors than the state.
And The Advertiser is doing them no favours by feeding their echo chamber and putting out silly push polls and giving any weight behind the letters to the editor sections of their paper.
A R
The entire Judeo-Christian take on sexuality/sexual morality is unnatural and has been rendered functionally obsolete …
That’s interesting, and puts it in context of social necessity and welfare along the same lines as the need for Kosher food. I never imagined it was more than ‘women unclean’ and sex purely for procreation, otherwise forbidden, and only at the pleasure of the gods is there a child born. I’m not Jewish, but know of women going to the Mikva to be cleansed before marriage, not men. That disgusting Trump creature still uses menstrual references to belittle women.
(We were taught, in my lifetime, that any sex other than with the intent of procreation – masturbation, homosexuality, female anal intercourse, you know the list, was a sin against god.)
As for unnatural, the Bethlehem Birth was out of virgin* by deity, or maybe the angel did it. I’d like to know how old she was. 😉
(*It’s a midrash thing)
PhRD
“The change in wording underscores how relations between
Berlin‘AAAAAA’ ** and Washington have deteriorated since U.S. President Donald Trump entered the White House in January.”** = Insert Country / Capital City
In a society with high infant mortality there would have been a strong bias against childless relationships. Combine that with the need in a primitive and warlike world to outbreed neighbouring tribes and replace warriors killed in battle I think it’s pretty obvious where the rules against same sex relationships came from. They were made into religious dogma to give them more force.
Ajm Didn’t seem to stop the Spartans.
AJM – The church’s objection to homosexuality has, as you say, through most of its history has not been the “unnatural” accusation but sex where there could be no procreation.
And there I was thinking that priests needed to be celibate so that they could think pure thoughts. 🙂
Regarding the Essential result on “Decision on same sex marriage”
Here is the Question.
They could try a more accurate question
For further accuracy, insert “non-binding” before “plebiscite”, and then point out that it will be followed by a vote in Parliament.
Your point 2 is covered, and the non-binding is redundant when you phrase it as simply allowing a Parliamentary vote.
Three points on external housings for residential Li-ion batteries:
1. We are not sure of the risk of household Li-ion batteries catching fire after thermal runaway, because not a whole lot of them have been installed yet, or for very long.
2. Stop and think about the term “thermal runaway” and then think about a typical suburban garage in summer, charging a battery at times of peak solar insolation…
3. How do you extinguish a burning lithium-ion battery?
The Religions don’t seem to do themselves any favours.
This decision seems mind-boggling.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/04/senior-rabbi-who-stepped-down-following-royal-commission-appointed-school-principal
Libertarian Unionist @ #132 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 3:10 pm
Are Li-ion fires self-oxidizing?
Has WB given us any hints on the weekly Essential results he is privy to?
It is very tempting to think that Essential measured the effects of weeks of furious turn polishing after the budget, and is now measuring the effects of disunity, but it’s probably just static bouncing around MOE.
I must say that 47% TPP for the L-NP seems awfully high to me : )
I must have the CPG disease, when I write about this government I can’t bring myself to type the word “turd”.
Someone tried to set fire a LiFePO4 by shorting it.
No fire.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=p21iZVFHEZk
Where is everyone?
That was weird. Couldn’t see the last three hours comments on the desktop but here they are on the phone! Even managed to post the above comment from the desktop but can only see it on the phone.
Vogon Poet @ #137 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 3:31 pm
Excellent conclusion – “The smoke smells not really healthy”.
Chemical composition of the smoke? Any chance of ignition from say, electrical arcing while outgassing?
TheOz has few articles on Abbott atm, some strange reason.
AR, no idea.
Have mine under saloon seating, hope to never be in the hot seat…
Re the Li ion batteries catching fire, I found this about Zinc-Bromide flow batteries.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/redflows-zinc-bromide-zcell-battery-may-have-the-edge-over-lithium-ion/
Scroll down a bit and it says…
LU
Why not use the European protocols for lithium ion batteries. They are stringent, but do not ban them from homes. Lithium ion batteries in general are ubiquitous, so there is extensive knowledge of their safety and performance. Tesla vehicles have travelled millions of miles with similar batteries, and have deaths from fire at around 10% of the levels of internal combustion engines.
That’s why you have battery management systems. You could apply exactly the same logic to charging a mobile phone.
With a fire extinguisher – or even water. There is the same amount of energy in one Powerwall 2 as only 1.5 Litres of petrol.
How do you extinguish a 20 litre plastic container of fuel going up in a garage fire? Or a 20kg gas bottle? I suggest you wouldn’t. You would just get out of the way.
The answer to high-capacity solar batteries – of any type – is quite simple: don’t install them in (or under) your house or garage.
I can’t think of any reason anyone would want to do this anyway, so there really is no problem.
About organised religion and sexual morality: A reading of scriptures shows that sexual behaviour is a minor moral concern in comparison to social justice issues. There is a general assumption that men will have total authority over women, that we can now see is clearly derived from the patriarchal deity construct and is now long outdated. I would contend that the “powers-that-be” have reversed the moral priorities by completely forgetting about the abuse of wealth and power in their moral calculus. The “church” has its values arse-about!
That would be considered a push poll.
Tesla Model S and X are the safest cars tested by The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. They have travelled over a billion miles with a single death – due to driver watching Harry Potter during auto pilot mode. ICE cars, have one death every 94 million miles.
Also here’s what happens when you thermally overload a Tesla Powerpack, which, at 100kWh, is about 7 times larger than the Powerwall 2 at 13.5kWh.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/19/tesla-fire-powerpack-test-safety/
I’d much rather be around this than a 10 kg gas bottle, or 10 litre of mower fuel, during a fire.
There have been a couple of Tesla deaths with fire a factor. The fires have been secondary to the crash.
Trog et al., I’m curious as to opinions on Zinc-Bromide flow batteries. They aren’t solid state like Li-ion, they use a small pump, but they appear to be more robust over their life and might be more environment friendly. I’ve no interest today, but the importer is nearby and if power prices keep climbing it might become something I look into.