Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. That would be considered a push poll.

    No doubt, but it would still be more accurate. How about this then?

    Q. Do you think the issue of same sex marriage should be decided by a national vote on whether to have a vote in the Parliament, or just a vote in the Parliament?

    The fact is that the national vote does not decide the issue.

  2. It’s not really a push poll though is it Jimmy.

    To not include the details is to ask for an opinion on something that isn’t an option.

    To simply ask if it should be sorted by a plebiscite can and largely would be interpreted as the plebiscite being determinative, which it clearly isn’t. Whilst a large majority might approve of the theoretical of direct democracy on this (before the campaign against exactly that you would see from the right should the idea ever be expanded beyond this one issue) it is a long bow to extrapolate that into support for this particular woftam.

  5. And this seems a slow day, so I’ll venture a thought on religions’ obsession with sex. As commented earlier, religious texts aren’t overly concerned with sex, so the question is why is it such a concern now? I wonder if the steady decline in influence (growing irrelevance) leaves religions little else to talk about. I’m no historian, but could religious authority in centuries past have been greater in what today would belong to a secular criminal or civil jurisdiction? That would only leave them private themes, such as sex.

  6. CTar1
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 12:32 pm
    Briefly – ‘Boris’ at it

    Yes….lots of re-positioning going on, all in anticipation that May will have to quit before long…

  9. Ratsak,
    Indeed I would argue the current question is push polling, because it presents the national poll as deciding the issue, which is not what has been proposed.

  10. With the Medicare Card details that a journalist ‘purchased’ on the ‘dark net’ –

    – A ‘certified true’ photocopy of a card (that only provides Medicare No. and name and expiry date) is a major item in providing ‘100 points of ID’ to open a bank account, get a copy of a birth certificate, replacement licence, etc.

    – Does not mean your health records on the Medicare are accessible by who ever has the card details.

    The suggestion, however, that the seller of these details may have only a small number of card detail records seems unlikely as the journalist provided his name and in return got the info on his card.

  11. late riser @ #155 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    And this seems a slow day, so I’ll venture a thought on religions’ obsession with sex. As commented earlier, religious texts aren’t overly concerned with sex, so the question is why is it such a concern now? I wonder if the steady decline in influence (growing irrelevance) leaves religions little else to talk about. I’m no historian, but could religious authority in centuries past have been greater in what today would belong to a secular criminal or civil jurisdiction? That would only leave them private themes, such as sex.

    I don’t think most religions really give a hoot about the various prohibitions around sex – certainly their priests don’t feel the need to comply with them. I think it is more about guilt. Sex just happens to be something you can make people feel very guilty about, which makes them suckers for imposing the church’s view on their other favorite subject – i.e. money – and why they should have some of yours.

  12. Addition –

    ‘Does not mean your health records on the Medicare computer system are accessible by who ever has the card details.’

  13. @Late Riser

    That’s almost certainly the case. In the past i.e during the reign of the Roman Empire punishment for someone who might have for example killed another persons son was a luxury of the rich due to the high cost of taking such a matter to court. The idea that killing was always morally reprehensible act even when the victim was a slave or poor was one of the novelties of christianity.

  14. @Late Riser

    That’s almost certainly the case. In the past i.e during the reign of the Roman Empire punishment for someone who might have for example killed another persons son was a luxury of the rich due to the high cost of taking such a matter to court. The idea that killing was always morally reprehensible act even when the victim was a slave or poor was one of the novelties of christianity.

  15. player one @ #161 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 5:27 pm

    I don’t think most religions really give a hoot about the various prohibitions around sex – certainly their priests don’t feel the need to comply with them. I think it is more about guilt. Sex just happens to be something you can make people feel very guilty about, which makes them suckers for imposing the church’s view on their other favorite subject – i.e. money – and why they should have some of yours.

    Hmm. Could be. Feels reasonable. But maybe rather than not giving a hoot, if sexual guilt is also how you control your clergy (in modern terms, your staff), then you might expect difficulties and have ways of dealing with staff transgressions that are different from consumer (flock) transgressions. I need to think about that.

  16. ‘CTar1
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    Adrian

    That too, but mostly a typical ‘Boris’ niggle attempt on someone he perceives as a rival.’

    Yep. Plus the back story is that they are at each other’s throats about soft v hard Brexit.

  17. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-european-union-eu-steve-baker-theresa-may-wholly-torn-down-libertarian-alliance-a7820721.html

    Nicholas would enjoy this.

    In the video Mr Baker tells a cheering audience: “I think Ukip and the Better Off Out campaign lack ambition. I think the European Union needs to be wholly torn down.”

    Filmed at an event by The Libertarian Alliance in 2010, he goes on to argue that the EU has “succeeded in raising economic nationalism to a continental scale”.

    After seeing the video, one Conservative MP told The Independent: “It just reveals what the extreme Brexiteers have been about all along.

    “It’s not enough to take the UK out of the EU. They want the entire thing to fall apart.

    “How is it possible to negotiate a ‘deep and special relationship’ with the EU, when you have ministers who want the institutions they are negotiating with to disintegrate?”

    Another MP said: “This is only going to further embitter relations. It doesn’t help our chances of getting a deal.”

  20. I like your second construction of question Question.

    Could also be phrased as:
    Same sex marriage requires an amendment of the Marriage act to be passed by Parliament. Do you think;
    a) the Parliament should have a vote on this amendment with every MP and Senator free to make a conscience vote, or
    b) a national plebiscite should be conducted first, the result of which could be considered by MPs and Senators, but which would not bind them to vote for or against the amendment.

    That’s the the truth of what the alternatives are expressed clearly and without any emotional language. Put that poll to people and see how popular this stupid idea of a plebiscite is.

    I strongly suspect the support for a plebiscite is because people just want it done so everyone can move on with their lives.

  24. …meaning I have never subscribed to or made even a casual purchase of any product in which News Corp has any interest at all…

  25. Boerwar
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 6:03 pm
    Briefly
    Baker? Cut snakes sane by comparison.

    Too true, B. It’s pretty clear now that the skids are under the Europhobic voices. They will be ejected, one way or another. This video is 7 years old but still relevant and has been leaked immediately prior to May’s gig with Merkel and Macron. This hurts May as much Baker.

  26. Briefly, my boycott started 1 April 1995 (Jeffemu) for one would be able to guess the catalyst.

    My missus asked about maybe getting Foxtel. I kyboshed that instantly. That malignant scum Murdoch will never have a cent from my pocket if I can help it. It only encourages him.

  27. Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 5:57 pm
    I always believed that Bishop would emerge as the kingmaker!

    This is another example of Credlin making mischief. She is batting for Abbott. This means discrediting all other possible contenders and sowing mistrust wherever she can.

  28. Ratsak
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 6:09 pm

    Good to hear, R. I do admit to deriving a certain gratification from the boycott. In other words, it’s no loss to me, I’m sure.

  29. briefly @ #178 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 6:12 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 5:57 pm
    I always believed that Bishop would emerge as the kingmaker!

    This is another example of Credlin making mischief. She is batting for Abbott. This means discrediting all other possible contenders and sowing mistrust wherever she can.

    Yeah, but doesn’t make what I say untrue.

    A few rumblings over the weekend. PVO is the closest to Bishop!

  30. blanket criticism @ #163 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 5:45 pm

    @Late Riser
    That’s almost certainly the case. In the past i.e during the reign of the Roman Empire punishment for someone who might have for example killed another persons son was a luxury of the rich due to the high cost of taking such a matter to court. The idea that killing was always morally reprehensible act even when the victim was a slave or poor was one of the novelties of christianity.

    Could it be argued then that that was how Christianity muscled in on the act? That is it wasn’t a concern, then it was, now it isn’t so much?

  31. GG,
    I don’t know that Asbestos will be the one (but I wouldn’t be at all surprised).

    What it is saying though is that:
    – Credlin and others are happy to assist Tones with tearing Trumble down
    – if she is not lying then there are at least some still in cabinet that don’t trust Trumble (as they shouldn’t)
    – Trumble is paranoid (probably with good reason) but paranoia makes you do dumb shit like counting numbers.

    Keep the popcorn warm.

  32. I don’t think your life has suffered a single hardship over the boycott Briefly. If anything it has been enhanced by reduced exposure to toxic sludge.

  33. ratsak @ #182 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    GG,
    I don’t know that Asbestos will be the one (but I wouldn’t be at all surprised).

    What it is saying though is that:
    – Credlin and others are happy to assist Tones with tearing Trumble down
    – if she is not lying then there are at least some still in cabinet that don’t trust Trumble (as they shouldn’t)
    – Trumble is paranoid (probably with good reason) but paranoia makes you do dumb shit like counting numbers.

    Keep the popcorn warm.

    i actually said she would be the kingmaker.

  34. GG – Typical Credlin:

    ‘As one of his Cabinet colleagues said to me today, he said this is the guy that knifed Peter King to get the seat, knifed Tony Abbott to become prime minister and the next knife is coming the Liberal Party’s way.’

  35. Labor should be praying Turnbull stays PM. Julie Bishop might actually be more electable. And as crap as she has been until she was given Foreign Affairs, she is easily the best Lib Minister, and she’d be the only one I’d happily keep on if there was such a thing as a bipartisan Cabinet.

  36. Indeed that is equally likely GG. But I don’t discount the idea that she basically says Fuck it, and takes one for the team safe in the knowledge that even though her chances of success are low she will always be remembered as having been PM, which is still a pretty big thing. She won’t mind the post PM perks at all.

  37. Ratsak

    I strongly suspect the support for a plebiscite is because people just want it done so everyone can move on with their lives.

    Yes.

  39. CTar1 @ #184 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    GG – Typical Credlin:

    ‘As one of his Cabinet colleagues said to me today, he said this is the guy that knifed Peter King to get the seat, knifed Tony Abbott to become prime minister and the next knife is coming the Liberal Party’s way.’

    Maybe he just needs a bigger knife.

  40. Greensborough Growler

    Bishop is probably vain enough to imagine she could perform as PM. Those who actually know her, however, reckon she would last about 2 weeks. If Abbott wants the job he could do worse than to support a coup on behalf of Bishop, knowing she would soon implode.

    Bishop must surely know the Liberals face a wipeout at the next election not because of the leadership but because of their abject policy failures…failures that will only be amplified if Abbott is restored. Bishop would know better than most just what a fool Abbott really is.

  41. GG

    Maybe he just needs a bigger knife.

    What he’s got now might be adequate for the ‘leftovers’ if he leads until the next election.

  43. Diogenes, I agree that of all of them JBish is the one that could perhaps pull it together to look like an approximation of a government.

    The biggest problem would be getting Abbott to piss off. If Tones was satisfied with Trumble’s head and took a diplomatic post then the sigh of relief from the nation to be rid of him and Trumble could carry Bishop a long way.

    Not sure Abbott would do that for Bishop though, and knifing another PM is more likely to just have voters treat them like the Keneally government. Something to be endured until the day you’re allowed to go all Negan on their heads.

  44. ratsak @ #193 Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 – 6:37 pm

    Diogenes, I agree that of all of them JBish is the one that could perhaps pull it together to look like an approximation of a government.

    The biggest problem would be getting Abbott to piss off. If Tones was satisfied with Trumble’s head and took a diplomatic post then the sigh of relief from the nation to be rid of him and Trumble could carry Bishop a long way.

    Not sure Abbott would do that for Bishop though, and knifing another PM is more likely to just have voters treat them like the Keneally government. Something to be endured until the day you’re allowed to go all Negan on their heads.

    The deal will be, “I’ll go if he does too!”.

  45. Cam I just add to the battery fire risk issue here.
    There are different lithium chemistries. The ones that deliver the highest specific energy (energy to mass) are the ones that have issues with thermal runaway. The chemistries that you use for household storage are a lot more robust. I’m surprised there isn’t mention of this.

  46. ratsak @ #193 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    Diogenes, I agree that of all of them JBish is the one that could perhaps pull it together to look like an approximation of a government.
    The biggest problem would be getting Abbott to piss off. If Tones was satisfied with Trumble’s head and took a diplomatic post then the sigh of relief from the nation to be rid of him and Trumble could carry Bishop a long way.
    Not sure Abbott would do that for Bishop though, and knifing another PM is more likely to just have voters treat them like the Keneally government. Something to be endured until the day you’re allowed to go all Negan on their heads.

    Diplomat Abbott? Now THERE’S a contradiction!

  48. My personal boycott of Murdoch vomit goes back to 1974/75, about when they sacked Adrian Deamer – and showed Rupert’s true colours WRT Whitlam!

  49. The $64 question is whether Bishop has the diplomatic skills to resolve deep seated ideological issues within the Liberal Party…

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