Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.


• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. ‘fess /Trog

    One thing you’ve got to say about Musk is that he very energetic about the things he pursues.

    And, as Citizen suggests, his seem like worthwhile pursuits.

  2. Wellllll, I’ve seen the lot, now.
    My gas bill is usually around $80 per two months.

    From AGL, in May, Oopsies, we made a mistake on your last bill. Here’s the credit: $16.17 (tiny print, like it’s just a normal junk letter) Blink and you’d miss it.

    Oh, bewdy, that’s $16.17 I’ve already paid off my next bill. I’m larfin’. My bill is generally about the $80 mark.

    WRONG. My next bill has miraculously jumped by $16.10 to $96. 37

    How fucking fortuitous, wouldn’t ya say.

  3. Another police shooting in Melbourne, this time with a fake gun in toe.

    But police still shot him even though police were told earlier it was a fake gun.

  4. Zoomster

    Re Aboriginal massacres

    Recently, Russel Broadbent, MHR for Macmillan, suggested/asked that the electorate of Macmillan have a change of name because it was no longer suitable (my words) for our electorate be named in honour of that murderous Scotsman Angus Macmillan, responsible for so many massacres in Gippsland.

    Nothing has come of his request, so far.


    As a result of the Census and related population statistics, a new redistribution will be triggered in August as Victoria is to get a new seat (and Victria was not too far off a 7-year rule redistribution anyway). This will allow seat renaming to occur.

    Given that McMillan is not an original 1901 seat name, there is a good reason and there seems to be some consensus on changing the name, there is a reasonable chance it will be changed. I do not know what the potential new seat names are.

    There have also been some moves to change the name of Batman (also not a 1901 seat) for similar reasons.

    Victoria is also due to get a seat of Fraser, after the former PM.

  6. Tom The First And Best

    Let’s hope McMillan is not to be renamed Stzelecki, that would really send that cat among the pigeons.

    Yes, I know I said MacMillan, instead of McMillan. Constant typo for me, considering I attended primary school with lots of descendants of Angus, their preferred spelling being MacMillan. Or maybe they were trying to escape their past. who knows.

  7. What if the person who told them it was a fake gun was wrong? I’m assuming the guy was under the influence and made the wrong sudden move.

  8. Ch7’s Mark Riley has his say on Abbott’s whiteanting.

    Labor has been doing a bit of focus group testing of late.

    There’s nothing unusual about that. All parties do it. The responses they provide on questions of politics, policy and personalities give party strategists a more discursive read on what is really happening in the electorate behind the headline polling numbers.

    The participants in this latest round said they didn’t much like politicians and they didn’t trust them much either. They also believe the Parliament in general, and the major parties in particular, are out of touch with the real needs of average voters. Well, knock me over with a feather. The responses to one particular question, though, really caught the attention of Labor strategists.

    Not one of the focus group members could name a single element of the recent Federal Budget. Nothing. Nada. The sound of crickets.

    What should be the central narrative of the Turnbull Government has been completely lost in the din of internal instability. This is a massive problem.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison declared this week that the controversy set off by Tony Abbott’s consistent and provocative interventions was simply “background noise”. He wishes.

    It is undeniably “foreground noise” and it is drowning out any other government message to the point where average Australian voters aren’t even sure there was a Budget, let alone know what was in it.

    But Riley ends with this:

    The Turnbull-Abbott feud is becoming absurd. Turnbull’s adolescent refusal to even name his predecessor this week was simply ludicrous.

    “The gentleman you describe.” Really? This from the man who promised “grown-up government”? Sounds more like a petulant schoolboy.

    Wasn’t it Abbott not Turnbull who promised “grown-up government”?

    Meanwhile local member Rick Wilson has issued a pamphlet this week about how the budget delivers for O’Connor. Full of the usual spin and platitudes. It promptly went into the recycling.

  9. I’ve just caught up with the latest ABC Janet King series.

    Apart from the boring relationships, and Janet King’s trembling lips and countless tears, can’t believe Richard’s been killed off.

  10. Trog’ summation of the pro for Tesla for having a gigafactory sound spot on for me.
    Musk is an opportunist,and I don’t mean that in a bad sense.

    I heard that Richard Branson is extremely shy.
    He got his start running a tiny record store in London. He was fed up for paying a high price for import LP and so started a LP import business.

  11. Lizzie / Kezza

    Notice the pulling of the shirt cuff?

    He did exactly that after he pushed his way to the front of the group to be photographed at the meeting in Italy on climate change accords.

  12. “Wasn’t it Abbott not Turnbull who promised “grown-up government”?”
    Abbott’s entire campaign was a textbook case of projection.
    What about the “no excuses” promise?

  13. @AR

    Lack of Education, lack of Training.

    Something this government knows a lot about actually.

    Regarding White-Anting by Abbott, this was coming even prior to change of Leadership due to Media influence and vested influence.

  14. Yay!
    Mr Onthemoon‏Verified account @firstdogonmoon 1h1 hour ago
    I’m a bit excited by the idea that the ALP will be taken over by the left at some point soon and will actually be good. @AustralianLabor

  15. BK

    On your recommendation I’ve started watching Handmaid’s Tale on SBS On Demand. While I understand they need the add revenue to keep it up and running, the advertisements are driving me mad. They come abruptly in the middle of dialogue or a key scene with no gap to avoid losing something important. Further, I’ve been through two episodes so far, there is roughly 3 breaks of 3 adds, ie 9 in an episode + 1 at the start. Of the 20 adds in total, a grand total of one is not the same bloody Curtis Stone flogging Coles’ $10 meals.

  16. What about the “no excuses” promise?

    As with all his other promises, Abbott had his fingers crossed behind his back.

  17. Ides:

    The ads on SBS on demand are indeed shite and inescapable. There don’t appear to be any solutions other than riding them out.

  18. Yes, the ads on SBS On Demand are a pain in the arse, however they help pay for the rights to watch The Handmaid’s Tale for free, so we’ll just have to suck it up. Just remember Foxtel could’ve acquired the rights to it. Then you’d have to subsidise not only Murdoch, but Telstra as well. On top of that, you’d still have the program interrupted by adverts as well.

    The ads on SBS are a small price to pay. I have Twitter and PB open in another window, so flick to that and catch up on what’s happening while the ads play.

  19. Re SBS. and ads, and stuff
    I haven’t had a problem with the ads, since signing up – which I thought one had to do.

  20. wewantpaul @ #1311 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:13 am

    in suburban areas it would be quite silly not to be connected to the grid if the connection charges were sensible but it seems Governments around Australia aren’t even close to sensible, VERY disappointed with the new WA Labor Govt so far.

    What in particular disappoints you about the new WA Labor government?

  21. Cracker of a third test AB Vs BIL.
    With regards SBS on demand, I watched a Fargo episode I missed on the computer, until an ad came on , then stopped it. On the smart TV, no ads whatsoever.
    Only problem is my internet is so shit the tv spends half the time buffering. On the PC I can pick a lower quality to reduce that.
    TV has no problems with ABC iView , odd.

  22. Dan
    “Check out what’s in Brian Trumble’s suitcase.”

    How could you miss it!

    Hope Trumble brought the wet nurse for the petulant, overgrown Rudd-like sook.

  23. If you’re getting a product for free, like free to air TV, then you’re the product. Even so, if broadcasters want to improve their effectiveness, they could make the ads a little less intrusive. I won’t watch a 90 minute movie chopped up into segements of 7 or 8 minutes and spread over 2.5 hours. Even after recording it and playing it back it’s just too disjointed. Commercial TV is completely unwatchable now, so I don’t see whatever it is they want to sell me.

  24. Ctar1
    At the moment, I’m reading “The Trail of the Fox”, by David Irving, re Rommel (no, not David Irvine the Holocaust denier).

    It’s hard to believe that most of the desert campaign (so far) was based on pretend hardware, the blabbering of the Allies, and Rommel’s disobedience.

    Poroti will be pleased to note the NZeders played a wonderful part in his defeat (once again, thus far).

  25. player one @ #1317 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:25 am

    socrates @ #1300 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:57 am

    As for costs, a large collective battery connected to the grid will be cheaper than a battery storage in every home. The former might cost $100 million, $200 per SA household. A battery pack in every home would cost several thousand $ per home.

    Indeed. But you won’t hear the solar industry pointing that out.

    Dear me P1, don’t you ever tire of being wrong?

    It won’t be long before embedded storage is cheaper than grid-sourced electricity during peak periods. Your argument would work if consumers only paid for the electricity stored in the battery, they don’t. In addition to the cost of the electricity stored in the battery, the consumer will pay AEMO charges, LFAS charges, LGC charges, STC charges, capacity charges and the exit point (grid) charges.

    None of those charges are applicable to embedded storage. I live in hope that one day you will stop making rookie errors and actually learn something.

  26. Well the SBS adverts on demand piss me off. The show has already screened live on FTA with ads. No reason to subject those of us who don’t watch live to freakin ads.

    It’s double dipping.

  27. Kezza – I haven’t read that one. The backwards and forwards part of the North Africa campaign was quite amazing.

    I read an essay some time in last year that focused on Rommel’s whole career. Going on what it contained he was full of himself and ‘a pig of a man’ – a subordinates opinion that seemed to have plenty of support.

  28. a r @ #1412 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 6:20 pm

    zoidlord @ #1406 Saturday, July 8th, 2017 – 5:35 pm

    Another police shooting in Melbourne, this time with a fake gun in toe.
    But police still shot him even though police were told earlier it was a fake gun.

    I thought trigger-happy police were supposed to be an American phenomenon. What gives?

    There have been numerous police shootings in Vic over the years, often of mentally ill people, sometimes crims in dubious circumstances.

  29. CTar1

    “I read an essay some time in last year that focused on Rommel’s whole career. Going on what it contained he was full of himself and ‘a pig of a man’ – a subordinates opinion that seemed to have plenty of support.”

    Oh, absolutely. Throughout this David Irving history is dotted Rommel’s contemporaries’ opinions of him; and they’re certainly not favourable.

    On the other hand, he seemed to have the luck of the gods. And, what’s more, he wasn’t a general sending his troops into battle, he was more your Alexander the Great, leading the troops into battle. He missed being wiped out by “this much” on many occasions.

    The canon fodder loved him.

  30. ctar1 @ #1445 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    Kezza – I haven’t read that one. The backwards and forwards part of the North Africa campaign was quite amazing.
    I read an essay some time in last year that focused on Rommel’s whole career. Going on what it contained he was full of himself and ‘a pig of a man’ – a subordinates opinion that seemed to have plenty of support.

    An early supporter of the Nazis.

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