Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Interesting how Rommel’s fuel supply convoys were compromised by ENIGMA intelligence. Churchill had to indulge in a bit of FAKE NEWS to protect his special source.

  2. I’m about half way through the Handmaiden’s Tale. Very good. About 4 x 15 sec adds per episode.
    It’s not double dipping because I haven’t seen it before.

  3. Kezza2
    Reading about some of the stuff that went on in Nth Africa in Rommel’s diary was when I first felt a real sense of national pride. One of his entries said that the NZ force was the force he wish the most to destroy as they always managed to get their gear through “impossible terrain” and attack and so force him to defend areas he would not normally do.

    He also described what he said was the fiercest fire fight he had ever seen when the NZ forces over ran his camp. Noting he expected his caravan door to be kicked in at any minute. A counter attack saw him saved. Reading it I felt a sense of sad irony that in his joy at being so “saved” meant that he would die.

  4. It’s not double dipping because I haven’t seen it before.

    Really? If I see another advert for Yakult yoghurt I’ll scream. Total double dipping.

  5. CTar1

    “And the German Press!”

    Hell yeah. He even took time out to re-enact – during the war – his ‘noble’ victories – for their propaganda newsreels. But, how can you condemn that, when both sides did the same.

    Rommel’s hubris is unbelievable. His letters to his wife are extraordinary. He was sort of your crash or crash through kind or bloke. And he dismissed or criticised or blamed anyone who didn’t concur. (Trump, anyone).

    He had no self-awareness, much like our own bemused, whose only contribution is the pathetic two cents worth that Rommel was “an early supporter of the Nazis” – well, der.

  6. Bemused

    An early supporter of the Nazis.

    Yep. That too.

    Possibly he thought he could ignore orders and get away with it because of that.

  7. grimace @ #1442 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:10 pm

    player one @ #1317 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:25 am

    socrates @ #1300 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:57 am

    As for costs, a large collective battery connected to the grid will be cheaper than a battery storage in every home. The former might cost $100 million, $200 per SA household. A battery pack in every home would cost several thousand $ per home.

    Indeed. But you won’t hear the solar industry pointing that out.

    Dear me P1, don’t you ever tire of being wrong?

    I don’t know – it hasn’t happened often enough for me to find out yet.

    It won’t be long before embedded storage is cheaper than grid-sourced electricity during peak periods. Your argument would work if consumers only paid for the electricity stored in the battery, they don’t. In addition to the cost of the electricity stored in the battery, the consumer will pay AEMO charges, LFAS charges, LGC charges, STC charges, capacity charges and the exit point (grid) charges.

    And battery users pay for their solar cells and the batteries, which are more expensive than just buying electricity off the grid even with all those charges included.

    None of those charges are applicable to embedded storage. I live in hope that one day you will stop making rookie errors and actually learn something.

    And I live in hope that one day you solar enthusiasts will look beyond RenewEconomy for your information. But I’m not going to hold my breath.

  8. Trog

    “Interesting how Rommel’s fuel supply convoys were compromised by ENIGMA intelligence. Churchill had to indulge in a bit of FAKE NEWS to protect his special source.”

    Trog, the interesting thing is that Rommel was such a disobedient bastard, that despite ENIGMA, the Allies didn’t know what he was doing because he kept schtum to his own command, and did whatever the hell he liked.

    He came undone in the end, obviously. But the Germans had cracked the Allied code, and Rommel knew what they were up to . . . or so he thought.

    Anyway, I’m only half-way through the book.

  9. I think Kezza is trying to demonstrate the kind of pig-headed belligerence Rommel displayed. Anyone care to go a couple of rounds with her?
    The point is that his early support for Hitler was unlike much of the Officer Corps and has tended to be whitewashed.

  10. Kezza

    Trog, the interesting thing is that Rommel was such a disobedient bastard, that despite ENIGMA, the Allies didn’t know what he was doing because he kept schtum to his own command, and did whatever the hell he liked.

    {grin}

    Glad you’re enjoying the read of it. I get to about 30 pages short of the end of books like that and I start putting it down and reading something else because I don’t want to hit ‘the end’. I’m just as bad with the last episodes of TV series I’ve enjoyed – The ‘stop’ button gets a work out!

  11. confessions @ #1384 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 3:57 pm

    Does Elon Musk live in Australia? If not he seems to spend a lot of time in Oz. I’d love to see if I could get him to do a talk over here seeing as we are 80+% powered by renewable energy and the state govt wants to build a wave energy centre of excellence here.

    Do you know anything about the progress here? I haven’t seen anything despite looking.

  12. Poroti

    I don’t know about you, but I was brought up on a diet of anti-war fever. I was terrified, as a kid, that the Japs would overrun us at any minute. Mind you, I was born 10 years after the war ended, such was the immediacy of the fear.

    Nevertheless, I had heard about the Rats of Tobruk, but never understood what went on. I thought “The Rats” were Australian. And some were, but in this narrative, after the Aussies were taken prisoner, the it was the NZeders who really stood out.

    I have this to say about Rommel: he seems to have regarded POWs as fair fighting men, and treated them well; as well as circumstances allowed – I mean, his own troops were starving at times.

  13. Poroti
    I don’t see any mention of Kiwis in this from Wikipedia.
    “Between April and August 1941, around 14,000 Australian soldiers were besieged in Tobruk by a German–Italian army commanded by General Erwin Rommel. The garrison, commanded by Lieutenant General Leslie Morshead, consisted of the 9th Australian Division (20th, 24th, and 26th Brigades), the 18th Brigade of the 7th Australian Division, four regiments of British artillery, Polish Independent Carpathian Rifle Brigade, and 3rd Indian Motor Brigade.”

  14. Bemused,
    “The point is that his early support for Hitler was unlike much of the Officer Corps and has tended to be whitewashed.”

    You couldn’t be more wrong/bemused, if you tried.

    This book makes no bones about Rommel’s support of Hitler, and Nazism; it’s a given. It’s not a whitewash, at all. It’s a tell-all tale, warts and all, account of Rommel

    Is no one, allowed to discuss anything at all, refer to anything at all, without first running it by you, for your stamp of approval, with the proviso that they don’t necessarily agree with what’s written.

    Who’s the Nazi here?

  15. Bemused – There was much involvement by the New Zealand Division in the relief of Tobruk in particular.

    Poroti mentioned the attack on Rommels HQ. This was done by a NZ desert long long range patrol mob. The were notorious for turning up in unexpected places during the North Africa campaign.

  16. The Ads for SBS In Demand on the iPad app weren’t too bad I had the same experience as Kezza 4 15sec ads in a 60 minute episode (of Handmaids tale).
    More and more the double dipping (ads on free to air and streamed) means less. Viewing TV on demand will be the default way to watch TV.
    It is important the TV channels don’t make the same mistake as the newspapers and give away for free their content and only then try to make money from it.

  17. poroti @ #1471 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Bemused
    North Africa just happens to be not just Tobruk.

    Indeed, sorry about that. I thought you had referred to Tobruk, maybe someone else did.
    My father was in North Africa, 450 Sqn RAAF, “The Desert Harassers” they called themselves courtesy of an idea submitted unsolicited by Lord Haw Haw.
    From what I have read, the LRDG must rate as one of the most cost effective outfits around.
    The German truck convoys faced the choice of being attacked from the air during the day or being attacked by the LRDG at night and many decided the day was the easier option.

  18. LRDG
    “Originally called the Long Range Patrol (LRP), the unit was founded in Egypt in June 1940 by Major Ralph A. Bagnold, acting under the direction of General Archibald Wavell. Bagnold was assisted by Captain Patrick Clayton and Captain William Shaw. At first the majority of the men were from New Zealand, but they were soon joined by Southern Rhodesian and British volunteers, whereupon new sub-units were formed and the name was changed to the better-known Long Range Desert Group (LRDG). The LRDG never numbered more than 350 men, all of whom were volunteers.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Range_Desert_Group
    A movie of their exploits gets an occasional re-run, “Sea of Sand”.

  19. kezza2 @ #1472 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    Bemused,
    “The point is that his early support for Hitler was unlike much of the Officer Corps and has tended to be whitewashed.”
    You couldn’t be more wrong/bemused, if you tried.
    This book makes no bones about Rommel’s support of Hitler, and Nazism; it’s a given. It’s not a whitewash, at all. It’s a tell-all tale, warts and all, account of Rommel
    Is no one, allowed to discuss anything at all, refer to anything at all, without first running it by you, for your stamp of approval, with the proviso that they don’t necessarily agree with what’s written.
    Who’s the Nazi here?

    More bullshit based on just one book. In popular culture and even among veterans that side of his past is usually overlooked entirely.

  20. Ctar1
    “Glad you’re enjoying the read of it. I get to about 30 pages short of the end of books like that and I start putting it down and reading something else because I don’t want to hit ‘the end’. ”

    Oh, I’m so like that. Except I can’t help myself, have to read to the end.

    But, as I get older, I find it easier and easier to turn the light out, just to savour what’s coming. And to think. And to listen to the BBC.

  21. John R,
    That was me on the 4x15s adds. I don’t know what this double dipping is about? Is it double dipping to charge me to see a film when someone else already paid to see it yesterday?

  22. Oh, shite, I mentioned Abbott being a Rudd-like sook in a cartoon about Abbott in Trumble’s suitcase.

    Now I understand why I have to suffer bemused’s shit about the WWII in Africa, whilst he apologises to the the blokes for his misinformative posts.

    Get a life, bemused. It’s not all about Rudd.

  23. Sorry Question, yes I had the same experience asking you, re Ads.

    I was stunned by the first episode of The Handmaids Tale, I purposely didn’t learn much about the story beforehand. Recommended.

  24. Perhaps I shouldn’t mention that prior to the book on Rommel, I just finished reading a book about the Italian Garibaldi.

  25. Kezza – I haven’t read a book on him.

    But I’ve got a nephew named Gary and he’s bald. Does that count as knowledgeable?

    {grin}

  26. “I think Kezza is trying to demonstrate the kind of pig-headed belligerence Rommel displayed. Anyone care to go a couple of rounds with her?”

    By this post, you, bemused, could be (a) accused of trolling or (b) incitement to trolling

    Pull your head in, for a change.

  27. For the cost of going off grid:
    https://www.ebay.com.au/i/161245625495?chn=ps&dispItem=1 $2,100 8kw Inverter + battery charger.
    http://www.lowenergydevelopments.com.au/index.php?route=product/product&path=25&product_id=56 10kw of panels = 8,360
    http://www.lowenergydevelopments.com.au/index.php?route=product/product&path=33&product_id=62 100 batteries for 60kwh at 50% DOD. 42,000
    $52,460 for a top of the line system.
    Cost for grid power
    $3,089.42 / year.
    Not quite their yet but a couple more increases in the cost of grid and a couple more reductions in battery costs and people will start to leave the grid.

    However what I hope will happen is the following:

    People will still remain connected to the grid, They only install batteries for blackouts.
    They feed solar into the grid getting a credit. This credit pays for their night time use and daily charge. This solar displaces coal and gas during the day.

  28. For the benefit of the curious bludger, I had a conversation this evening with one of my children. He lives and works in London and is usually a well-informed observer of the Uk political situation. He made these observations:

    – The best estimate of the bureaucracy is that the wheels will fall off the Brexit cart
    – Corbyn is an ideologic Europhobe who regards the EU as an exercise in imperialist capitalism that should be rejected
    – Corbyn hates the Labour right more than he despises Tories
    – That even if the Tories split, Corbyn will not run a Stop Brexit campaign, partly because he doesn’t believe in it and partly because it would mean empowering his own right wing
    – Basically, chaos lies ahead in the UK.

    Neo Imperialist Tories and Neo Trot Labour will wreck the place.

  29. And for something a little crazy. Electric cars have 85kwh batteries, so if you use 30kwh for the house , you can go to a charging station and bring home enough power for the day.

  30. Diog
    “Have I missed something? Was Rommel involved in Rudd’s downfall?”

    Apparently, you have. It was written by Bemused Rudddel.

    It’s title “The Psychiatric Nurse Whose Daughter Became Prime Minister of Australia And I’ll Never Forgive Her”

  31. Blanket Criticism @ #1414 Saturday, July 8th, 2017 – 6:31 pm

    What if the person who told them it was a fake gun was wrong? I’m assuming the guy was under the influence and made the wrong sudden move.

    What if the officers showed restraint, and at least coordinated with the owners and security staff at the nightclub to verify that there was in fact probable cause of a crime requiring police intervention before storming in? Particularly in the context of a nightclub, where people go to hang out, dress up, get drunk, and generally be stupid. And where no violent crime or imminent violent crime had been alleged.

    Unless the club asked the police to be there (or gave cause to believe that they were deliberately hiding a reason for police to be there), there was no reason for them to be.

  32. timothy reichle @ #1491 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:45 pm

    For the cost of going off grid:
    https://www.ebay.com.au/i/161245625495?chn=ps&dispItem=1 $2,100 8kw Inverter + battery charger.
    http://www.lowenergydevelopments.com.au/index.php?route=product/product&path=25&product_id=56 10kw of panels = 8,360
    http://www.lowenergydevelopments.com.au/index.php?route=product/product&path=33&product_id=62 100 batteries for 60kwh at 50% DOD. 42,000
    $52,460 for a top of the line system.
    Cost for grid power
    $3,089.42 / year.
    Not quite their yet but a couple more increases in the cost of grid and a couple more reductions in battery costs and people will start to leave the grid.
    However what I hope will happen is the following:
    People will still remain connected to the grid, They only install batteries for blackouts.
    They feed solar into the grid getting a credit. This credit pays for their night time use and daily charge. This solar displaces coal and gas during the day.

    There is nothing state of the art about a lead based battery that can only achieve a depth of discharge of 50%, without substantially reducing its cycle life. Household/EV/utility scale lithium batteries will do 90% without substantial impact on its cycle life. and a flow battery will go 100%, with cycle life not being relevant to a flow battery as the life of the electrolyte is theoretically indefinite.

    I agree with you that few people who have access to the grid in Australia will disconnect from it, though I think batteries will be popular in the same way solar panels have been.

    PV prices will continue to fall and battery prices will follow the same cost curve as PV, the factor limiting disconnection will be the backup offered by the grid as few people will install sufficient PV & battery storage to get them through dark & rainy winter days where PV output is very limited. I can’t see too many people disconnecting from the grid and installing gas generators either, that would be a great way to piss your neighbours off.

    The other factor is EV’s. Further to my previous point, there would be even fewer people with the resources and sufficient roof space to install enough panels & batteries to run their house and charge their one or two EV’s up overnight.

  33. TR

    However what I hope will happen is the following:

    People will still remain connected to the grid, They only install batteries for blackouts.
    They feed solar into the grid getting a credit. This credit pays for their night time use and daily charge. This solar displaces coal and gas during the day.

    Yes.

  34. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump-replaced-by-daughter-ivanka-at-g20-world-leaders-meeting-a3583236.html

    Ivanka deputises for Trump, taking a place next to Merkel and Xi. The message….Trump has sent someone he trusts to occupy his seat….but beyond that, he could hardly care less about the formalities of the G20. Evidently, he has nothing to say to these other leaders and has no wish to listen to them either. Trump obviously does not want to be one among many.

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