Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 31
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  4. Dio
    “5. Worldwide shortage of lithium leading to people with bipolar becoming manic”

    Nice. Careful they might use that one. I have another suggestion.

    6. Too many wind turbines will slow the earth’s rotation, disrupting tides and weather patterns, causing worldwide flooding and famine. Labor wins the next election and the Robot Apocalypse begins. All true conservatives take charge of your families and take cover in your shelters immediately.

  5. Dio:

    In this neck of the woods people are choosing to be off the grid when they build a home simply because they cannot afford the tens of thousands of dollars needed to connect the electricity to their property. For those people there would be no mainstream backup.

  6. The fact that Trump met with Putin for over 2 hours is instructive.

    Half the time taken up with translating Trump-speak into Russian and vice versa.

  7. So we should have a more affordable power supply in time for summer. But will there be cricket to watch? Have a good day all.

  9. One more thing for those interested in urban planning and transport infrastructure. I have lambasted some very dubious freeway projects here a lot lately. As bad as our energy policy, Australia really has become an outlier in still doing freeway construction, when many countries are abandoning this strategy. Even in the United States, they are starting to tear them down. See
    https://www.cnu.org/our-projects/highways-boulevards/freeways-without-futures

    Just as wind power has gotten cheaper and now beats coal, freeways have gotten more expensive and are now beaten by modern heavy and light rail. There is no credible technical explanation for what we are doing other than vested interests.

  10. Am I right in assuming that a large battery is much quicker in supplying the short term power boost to stabilise the network than a hydro system would be?

  11. in suburban areas it would be quite silly not to be connected to the grid if the connection charges were sensible but it seems Governments around Australia aren’t even close to sensible, VERY disappointed with the new WA Labor Govt so far.

  13. WWP

    Deregulation so privitisation can work is the problem. This shows why privatising everything in site is such a mistake.

    This is the basis of Corbyn’s popularity in talking natioalisation. Taking back public assets into public control.

  14. Arrgh. Typo city. That should be.

    WWP

    Deregulation so privitisation can work is the problem. This shows why privatising everything in sight is such a mistake.

    This is the basis of Corbyn’s popularity in talking nationalisation. Taking back public assets into public control.

  15. confessions @ #1295 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:51 am

    Victoria:
    The Trump imbroglio has drained me and I’m not even living in the US where you see it on a daily basis!

    A simple solution to that would be to watch FauxNews. That way you wouldn’t get to see any of it. Even if they do air something about it, it’s no big deal. And if it’s a big deal, then it’s not illegal. And if it’s illegal, then because the President does, that makes it legal. And so on.

    Or you could go and live in a cave for four years or until Trump leaves the White House (whichever comes first).

    {insert sarcastic winky emoji here}

  17. socrates @ #1300 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 9:57 am

    As for costs, a large collective battery connected to the grid will be cheaper than a battery storage in every home. The former might cost $100 million, $200 per SA household. A battery pack in every home would cost several thousand $ per home.

    Indeed. But you won’t hear the solar industry pointing that out.

  19. This is well worth a read

    Periodically, a fact is so self-evident that to state it can make its obviousness seem startling. This, for example: There is no force in public life more destructive than Tony Abbott.

    For almost a decade, since he first became opposition leader, Tony Abbott has held Australia to ransom. He has trashed four parliaments. None were better for his presence in them.

    His solitary skill is damage. He has wrecked institutions, torn down careers. He has ridiculed the rule of law and coarsened the realm of debate. He has governed against minorities and indulged himself at the expense of duty.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/07/08/force-abbott/14994360004886

  20. Trump – Putin ‘no notes’ Meeting

    I wouldn’t think that it is unusual that the leaders of countries meet with this arrangement in place – ‘free and frank’ exchange of views on many subjects.

    It is, of course, a great chance for those inclined to yell ‘CONSPIRANCY’ – ‘Trumps taking instructions from Putin’.

    My concern is that Putin is smart enough to do what Netanyahu did with Trump and flatter him enough so that Trump will think that their ideas are his original ideas …

  22. guytaur @ #1319 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:28 am

    This is well worth a read

    Periodically, a fact is so self-evident that to state it can make its obviousness seem startling. This, for example: There is no force in public life more destructive than Tony Abbott.
    For almost a decade, since he first became opposition leader, Tony Abbott has held Australia to ransom. He has trashed four parliaments. None were better for his presence in them.
    His solitary skill is damage. He has wrecked institutions, torn down careers. He has ridiculed the rule of law and coarsened the realm of debate. He has governed against minorities and indulged himself at the expense of duty.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/07/08/force-abbott/14994360004886

    YES! YES! YES!

    And from that editorial:

    That one man could do so much damage is testament to his corrosive gift for harm.

    It is also testament to the extent and speed to which ostensibly good people can jettison all ethical, patriotic and honourable considerations in a desperate lunge for power.

    Turnbull was part of Abbott’s opposition and then government from 2010 onwards. He continues to implement Abbott’s destructive agenda. Shame.

  23. Confessions
    Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:18 am

    Yes I posted about this last week, although back then it was only 4 men from memory. It’s unbelievable that knowing the party has woman problems more effort isn’t made to encourage more women to nominate.>/i>

    Truly, it’s not unbelievable. It is completely predictable, given the reactionary views that dominate the WA Liberal Party. They are as out of touch as it’s possible to be.

  24. Gt / TPOF

    The current version of Turnbull is just a amalgam of his urbane manner when talking publicly and whatever conservative agenda items he needs to support / push to stay leader of the Liberal Party.

  25. Turnbull showed his colours by doing Abbott’s wishes in wrecking the NBN. His current continuation of that agenda with softer rhetoric is no surprise.

    Abbott was the wrecker was chosen as leader for a reason. The party of climate deniers and vested interests over public interest are in control and they may have put the iron fist in a velvet glove, its still an iron fist. Just ask those losing penalty rates or centrelink robodebt victims

  26. Sob. All my comments on ‘The Fair Go” have now been deleted and I’m blocked from commenting. I wasn’t abusive in any way.

    Apparently the answer to free speech is to silence anyone who disagrees with you.

  28. Zoomster

    Fair-go obviously not into conversation. They want servile agreement, no arguments.
    That’s why their policies are bundles of poo.

  29. guytaur @ #1319 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:28 am

    This is well worth a read

    Periodically, a fact is so self-evident that to state it can make its obviousness seem startling. This, for example: There is no force in public life more destructive than Tony Abbott.
    For almost a decade, since he first became opposition leader, Tony Abbott has held Australia to ransom. He has trashed four parliaments. None were better for his presence in them.
    His solitary skill is damage. He has wrecked institutions, torn down careers. He has ridiculed the rule of law and coarsened the realm of debate. He has governed against minorities and indulged himself at the expense of duty.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/07/08/force-abbott/14994360004886

    Absolutely spot-on. But why are we only hearing this from the media now? Have they finally realized that Abbott is actually more dangerous to the LNP than to the ALP?

  31. Lizzie

    As P1 points out the media is openly talking about this now. Credit to the Saturday paper for doing this. Its the start of the media waking up to the reality. There is only so much denial of science based reality you can get away with.

    Factual analysis of Abbott brings the inevitable conclusion The Saturday Paper Editorial has made.

    Read it. Celebrate. Finally the politics is a changing back to evidence based policy as reality bits

  33. P1

    Have they finally realized that Abbott is actually more dangerous to the LNP than to the ALP?

    Probably, but they haven’t quite got to the point where they understand that ‘Abbott thinking’ lurks in many conservative politicians and that Abbott and his mates are a danger to the nation.

  35. As to Abbott the wrecker,

    David Marr was saying this years ago. The Saturday Paper has pretty much been saying it since day one, because its one of the most left-leaning papers around. The Guardian has really only really started with it since he was deposed. As for Fairfax, they seem to be having a crisis of identify and trying to move right. During the 2010 and 2013 elections they seemed to be missing a lot of proper analysis of Abbot + and the Libs when it was bloody obvious they were promising everything to almost everyone and there was no way they could make the numbers work – hence 2014 budget. Pretty much Fairfax, and the commercial tv stations missed the boat and threw away their proper critiques. As did the ABC from about 2014 onwards.

    News Limited is a different kettle of fish entirely. No comment needed.

    So yes I am finding this sudden mea culpa from most of the media ironic. They didnt do their proper job in 2010 and 2013 (or 2016)

  36. Guytaur

    Hasn’t anyone got the courage to face Abbott directly? Soft words from his friends don’t work. Instead of wrecking the Liberal Party, why doesn’t he take his courage in his hands and create a Party for himself? We know the answer, of course, he’s basically lazy, but loves to make a big man of himself by spouting outdated nonsense.

  37. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/muslim-attacks-terrorism-lone-attacker-mental-health-problems-excuses-finsbury-park-mosque-chairman-a7828641.html

    If terrorism is about the deliberate incitement of fear then much of the violence directed against Muslims – or Jews, Sikhs, Buddhists and people of colour – should be construed as terrorism even if it does not result in the loss of life.

    Verbal expressions of hate, such as those prohibited under the RDA, should be construed to be incitements to terrorism.

  39. Briefly

    Brexit: France to cut income tax and open international schools to entice London’s bankers to Paris

    The French Prime Minister on Friday laid out a raft of measures aimed at boosting Paris’s attractiveness to high finance in order to cash in on Britain’s exit from the European Union, including cutting income tax for high earning bankers and opening international schools.

    France continues to make eyes at London’s bankers and on Friday the Prime Minister Edouard Philippe laid out a raft of measures to attract financiers who may have to leave London when the UK leaves the EU.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20170707/paris-to-open-three-more-international-schools-to-entice-brexit

  40. CTar1
    Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 12:08 pm
    Briefly

    Brexit: France to cut income tax and open international schools to entice London’s bankers to Paris

    The French Prime Minister on Friday laid out a raft of measures aimed at boosting Paris’s attractiveness to high finance in order to cash in on Britain’s exit from the European Union, including cutting income tax for high earning bankers and opening international schools.

    France continues to make eyes at London’s bankers and on Friday the Prime Minister Edouard Philippe laid out a raft of measures to attract financiers who may have to leave London when the UK leaves the EU.

    The calamity is just beginning.

  41. Murdoch’s Advertiser reckons opposition leader Steven Marshall had a good week because he came out against the state bank tax. Jay Weatherill only saved the city of Whyalla and the state’s power system.

  43. Murdoch’s Advertiser reckons opposition leader Steven Marshall had a good week because he came out against the state bank tax. Jay Weatherill only saved the city of Whyalla and the state’s power system.

    It’s also been certain that the State Labor Government is terminal and on the eve of a 1993-esque landslide defeat since 2010.

  45. Rational Leftists
    Wasnt the general consensus that Labor was supposed to loss the last state election in South Australia but sandbagged well + Abbot helped + the states electoral distribution? (and that byelection win surely helped)

  46. Ides

    Yes, the money was on a Liberal win.

    Most of those factors were at play (the electoral distribution thing is Right Wing spin. It’s the responsibility of political parties to win seats, not ECSA’s to give the seats to them. The fact that they have to have the state gerrymandered heavily in their favour to win shows the SA Liberals have the problem, not the system.)

  48. What about the coming election? Whats the consensus there?

    The Tesla thing might be too soon to factor in I’d imagine? Its normally a done thing for a government in trouble to pick a fight with the Feds or for a fed to pick a fight with a state.

  49. Bk

    I have just watched the first two episodes of “The Handmaid’s Tale” streamed by SBS.

    A laid back Saturday morning out in the hills? {evil}

  50. Honestly,
    It will be a 16-year-old government at the election. Hard to resist that kind of entropy for change. Also, as I already alluded, the seats have been redistributed to give the Liberals a strong default advantage this time. And, as you know, the state of the economy here is not that great compared to the rest of the country. So I would say Libs are the slight favourites.

    Emphasis there on “slight”. Problem is the SA Libs are very lazy and textbook “born to rule” attitudes keep making them underestimate their opposition. They also seem to be stuck in some echo chamber (fed by RW media bias) that leads them to focus on issues that aren’t really relevent or don’t really change minds and ignore those which do. Adding to their drama is NXT (or SA Best, I think it will be called) is putting its toes in the electoral waters next year and is attracting disaffected voters from both parties but seems to be more appealing to the disaffected centrists/centre-right who oppose Labor but hate the direction the Liberals are going (state and federal) and if they see that as the more viable (and not as dysfunctional or nutty) non-Labor option, could jump ship permanently. Bernardi’s conservatives might be a factor from the far end of the spectrum but until I see some evidence of a surge of support, I will just assume, at best, they will continue to fill the same niche that FF did.

    In short: Libs maybe but it’s too early to tell. Although, the fact that it’s not “all over, red rover” for the Government by now should be of deep concern to the Libs.

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