Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Section 3 . . .

    The Washington Post reports on the Trump-Putin meeting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/vladimir-putin-denies-election-hacking-to-donald-trump-rex-tillerson-says-20170707-gx77wf.html
    Some experts reckon the High Court challenge on David Gillespie’s eligibility to be elected into parliament may well succeed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-could-win-high-court-bid-to-unseat-minister-say-experts-20170707-gx6xlv.html
    The Green Institute says that Elon Musk’s agreement to build the world’s largest battery for South Australia isn’t just an extraordinary technological breakthrough that signs coal’s death warrant. It’s potentially a game changer in the way we do politics, reinserting the importance of basic reality into a debate which has been bereft of it for too long.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/07/elon-musks-big-battery-brings-reality-crashing-into-a-post-truth-world
    Five men have nominated to fill the West Australian Senate vacancy, including two former state MPs, official nomination papers leaked to Fairfax Media reveal. Not a woman insight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/not-a-woman-in-sight-leaked-nomination-papers-reveal-five-male-nominees-to-fill-liberal-senate-role-20170707-gx769l.html
    Peter FitzSimons wonders where Steve Smith is when we need him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/fitz-files-20170707-gx6j57.html
    The SMH editorial wants the cricket battle to be back on the pitch.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-cricket-battle-needs-to-be-back-on-the-pitch-20170706-gx693q.html
    The drug industry is spending $72 million a year “educating” doctors, with one company splashing $750,000 on a weekend conference. Why?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/drug-companies-spent-287-million-in-four-years-on-educational-events-for-doctors-20170706-gx688a.html
    South Australia will attempt to ease pressure on its crisis-prone electricity grid with a world-leading battery station more than three times the size of its nearest rival, to be built by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. How long before Abbott says the batteries are ugly?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/massive-tesla-battery-should-reduce-power-prices-but-wont-prevent-crippling-sa-blackouts-say-experts-20170707-gx6sg3.html
    Crispin Hull says we should have a good look at the NZ political system to get over our own dysfunction. More MP’s is the answer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/more-mps-could-help-solve-the-current-political-dysfunction-in-australia-20170706-gx5xp7.html

  2. Section 4 . . .

    Jack Waterford has different idea – uncouple Senate elections from the HoR’s.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-case-for-an-outofsync-senate-election-20170707-gx6kn2.html
    Australia’s broadband network is a dog’s dinner that disappoints many customers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/07/australian-internet-slow-and-plagued-by-disconnections-survey-finds
    A taskforce has come up with a range of interesting recommendations to rein in the burgeoning cash economy. Google.
    /business/banking-and-finance/biometric-business-passports-needed-to-beat-black-economy-says-taskforce-20170706-gx68wm
    The Grenfell Tower fire inquiry hopes to hold its first public hearings into the cause of the disaster in September as it prepares to seize council planning archives. But there are still calls for wider terms of reference.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/07/grenfell-tower-inquiry-aims-for-first-public-hearings-in-september
    Shame causes many actions. Like this attempt.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-pollution-up-data-released-after-foi-struggle-reveal-20170707-gx6qy8.html
    Tim Costello has his say on the G20 agenda.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/with-a-lion-behind-and-the-sea-in-front-g20-leaders-head-to-hamburg-20170706-gx60wz.html
    Trump is the bull in the G20 China shop.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/07/07/trump-bull-in-g20-china-shop/
    What can Australia expect from the summit?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-trump-and-turbulence-what-australia-can-expect-from-the-g20-20170707-gx6hl4.html
    Phil Coorey writes that at the G20 there is a palpable sense that the influence of the US has diminished. Google.
    news/politics/at-the-g20-a-palpable-sense-that-us-influence-has-diminished-20170706-gx6b34
    On this very point Jonathan Freedland writes that it’s little wonder that Trump is Putin’s favourite – he’s making America weak again.

  3. Section 5 . . .

    On this very point Jonathan Freedland writes that it’s little wonder that Trump is Putin’s favourite – he’s making America weak again.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/07/trump-putin-america-soft-power-g20-summit
    Now Christine Milne gets into the act with the Greens’ problems.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/08/nsw-greens-exercising-veto-powers-over-national-party-says-christine-milne
    What is Elizabeth Farrelly trying to say here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/child-sex-abuse-is-no-reason-to-reject-religion-but-to-raze-church-hierarchies-20170706-gx6aw8.html
    Pontificating Pal Kelly goes in even stronger in defence of Christianity, the saviour of all things. Google.
    /news/inquirer/blessed-be-the-egoistic-individuals/news-story/49de39a232f038a03100cb967a4f4967
    Martin McKenzie-Murray,as someone who has reported on all manner of child abuse, can’t abide sophistic deflections. The defences of the Catholic Church prefer the invocation of culture wars to the acceptance of facts. And those facts – which are entirely separate to the charges against George Pell – are clear, damning and insist upon atonement. He has a good look at those defending Pell.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2017/07/08/the-people-defending-cardinal-george-pell/14994360004893
    Martin Hirst has read the book “Cardinal” and has this to say.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/cardinal-the-story-of-abuse-cover-up-and-arrogance-in-the-catholic-church,10480
    The bikies feud has spilled over into the ACT.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-policings-bikie-taskforce-investigating-car-fires-shots-fired-in-kambah-20170707-gx6nsv.html

  4. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir turns the tables on Trump.

    Here’s yesterday’s ripper form Alan Moir. So, so good!

    Broelman gives us Tomic the Tank Engine.

    Mark Knight gets more to the point with Tomic.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f27de6c73e09817770a792d6b0d1e6c2?width=1024
    Reg Leahy at the G20.

    David Rowe cruels Trump yet again!

    Ron Tandberg with an alternative to nuclear war.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Pat Clement with Turnbull’s coaching session in preparation for the G20.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d3b83b5d4dd28f591562c046a9902787

  5. I don’t think it makes sense for the Government to subsidize personal batteries on grid connected homes on the basis given. If you wanted to maximize the ability to use storage as pseudo-baseload it makes more sense to store power pumped back into the grid, since that allows more flexible dispatch based on need.

    The benefits for personal storage would be more for the owner by eg maximizing the profit of selling excess power / minimising loss by avoiding drawing from the grid during peak. The primary grid benefit would be the rarer case of supply shortages where it allows greater option in brownouts and greater flexibility in power restoration for outages (assuming the system can function when off grid).

    You’d need a far more peer to peer energy distribution model than currently exists for personal storage to be generally beneficial to the public.

    Actually given the potential for smart dispatch from local storage and peer to peer exchange , the last thing you want is people to go off grid before then.

  6. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Interesting paragraph in the Laurie Oakes article:

    TURNBULL himself should demand that faction leaders and party officers do more to ensure and demonstrate Abbott’s isolation. And he should be more careful with appointments. Several prominent Victorian Liberals warned that promoting Sukkar would be a mistake.

    My spidey senses were correct. Sukkar is not to be trusted. He’s on the make and would likely give Brutus a run for his money should the opportunity arise.

  7. Five men have nominated to fill the West Australian Senate vacancy, including two former state MPs, official nomination papers leaked to Fairfax Media reveal. Not a woman insight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/not-a-woman-in-sight-leaked-nomination-papers-reveal-five-male-nominees-to-fill-liberal-senate-role-20170707-gx769l.html

    Yes I posted about this last week, although back then it was only 4 men from memory. It’s unbelievable that knowing the party has woman problems more effort isn’t made to encourage more women to nominate.

  8. Nice to see Theresa May and Brian Trumble bonding at the G20 over the deep unpopularity and inevitable electoral destruction of the parties they lead. They must be the two loneliest people in the world.

  10. Morning all. Thanks BK. That story by Paul Kelly about the dangers of egoism and defending the catholic church is laughable. Does anyone think that George Pell, cardinal living in a vatican mansion, has no egoism? Or Abbott?? ROTFL.

  13. c@tmomma @ #1256 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:11 am

    Good Morning Bludgers
    Interesting paragraph in the Laurie Oakes article:

    TURNBULL himself should demand that faction leaders and party officers do more to ensure and demonstrate Abbott’s isolation. And he should be more careful with appointments. Several prominent Victorian Liberals warned that promoting Sukkar would be a mistake.

    My spidey senses were correct. Sukkar is not to be trusted. He’s on the make and would likely give Brutus a run for his money should the opportunity arise.

    How can Malcolm demand factional leaders do anything, when according to him they do not exist. 🙂

  14. The COALition’s pathetic attempts to block action on climate change descend to all areas of government. In transport planning you can calculate the impact of a road project in terms of extra driving and greenhouse gases when you model the demand. But we have no carbon price now. So guess which country has one of the lowest valuations on greenhouse gases calculation guidelines in the OECD? Yep, we do. It helps all these dubious freeway projects the Libs are promoting everywhere scrape over the line and get a benefit cost ration above one, justifying federal funding. Its easy when you do not properly count the losses they cause.

  15. Five men have nominated to fill the West Australian Senate vacancy, including two former state MPs, official nomination papers leaked to Fairfax Media reveal. Not a woman insight.

    No Woman insight either.

  16. ‘They must be the two loneliest people in the world.’

    Don’t know about May, but Trumble has his massive ego to keep him company, so he’ll never be alone.

  17. The person most missing in action in the present cricket dispute is Mark Taylor, former Australian captain, who now has his far arse on the Board. Come on Mark, tell us what your position is.

  19. BiGD,
    How can Malcolm demand factional leaders do anything, when according to him they do not exist. 🙂

    I was also thinking, how can Malcolm Turnbull demand the Conservatives stop their undermining, when he has made a Faustian pact with them? He’s a puppet on a string, a mere plaything, dangled in front of the nation as they bide their time until they jettison him overboard like political flotsam and jetsom and replace him with…maybe another ‘Moderate’ whose overweening ambition also compels him (because it will always be a ‘Him’), to make a similar deal. Or maybe Toned Abs might think he can do the job if he practices putting on his ‘Moderate’ face for the electorate? However, today’s Oakes’ column might just be the kiss of death. It was savage!

    On the other hand, Abbott probably has visions of being the next, ‘Lazarus with a Triple Bypass’ and believes in his God-given right and destiny to lead the nation again. Or the Opposition. 🙂

  21. The WA Nationals have joined Australia’s biggest miners in calling for a quarter of mining royalties to be quarantined from the GST, despite likening BHP’s efforts on tax reform to a “wet lettuce leaf”.

    Their agreement on the GST issue follows their fight over the Nationals’ push for a substantial tax increase on BHP and Rio Tinto – which the mining lobby criticised as benefiting other states through GST distribution.

    The Productivity Commission is reviewing whether the system of horizontal fiscal equalisation used to allocate GST revenue so all states can provide an equal level of services is benefiting the economy.

    Both sides of WA politics want an overhaul of the distribution system which currently gives the state 34.5 cents for every dollar of GST it collects.

    In their submission, the WA Nationals echoed BHP and the Minerals Council of Australia in suggesting a quarter of WA’s mining royalties be exempt from the GST formula.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-08/wa-nationals-back-miners-calls-for-gst-quarantine/8690420

  23. I was also thinking, how can Malcolm Turnbull demand the Conservatives stop their undermining, when he has made a Faustian pact with them?

    Exactly. That he is constantly being undermined by them and having to kowtow to them just shows what little authority he has in the partyroom anyway. He has no authority to demand they pull their heads in.

  24. Diogenes

    Friday, July 7, 2017 at 11:11 pm
    Evidently the 100MW battery will only power 13000 homes for 24 hours in a blackout. That’s hardly a game-changer.

    And to quote that figure is to miss the whole point. When it comes to system stability it is what it can do in seconds that matters. When it comes to getting extra generation capacity online we are talking minutes not 24 hours.

  25. Thanks BK – a sterling effort as usual.
    Interesting to look at The Australian – not much about the Tesla battery -has been relegated to the backblocks below the fold. But we do have a puff piece on the increase in power disconnections.

    Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg sheeted home responsibility for the rise in disconnection rates to Labor’s carbon tax, which ­went into force in July 2012, and was ­repealed in July 2014.

    LOL

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation yesterday wrote to the Prime Minister calling for a moratorium on residential power disconnections until the government abolished the Renewable Energy Target and binned the Finkel ­review. Senator Hanson, who warned this week that pensioners were “living by candlelight”, said the rise in disconnection rates was “more proof” that the government had embraced the “left-wing climate and energy policies of Labor and the Greens”.

    LOL again.
    What we need is the raw intelligence of Malcolm Roberts on the job:

    One Nation Queensland senator Malcolm Roberts called for an emergency meeting of the Council of Australian Governments and warned the “flawed and erroneous” assumptions in the Finkel review would result in jobs and industry destruction.

    Nothing remotely factual. Nothing.
    e.g.
    – the privatisation and gold plating of the grid leading to huge increases in transmission charges
    – lack of policy certainty leading to near zero investment in new gas ( a good thing in my view)
    – rorting of the 30 minute rule by generators
    – failure by both Labor and Liberal governments in managing gas exports
    – rorting of the retail markup by privatised gentailers.

    Google
    Australian residential power disconnections have risen by as much as 140 per cent in six years.

  27. Frednk

    And to quote that figure is to miss the whole point.

    Exactly. The 100 MW battery can hold the fort for an hour or so, and that will cover a lot of contingencies. Of course it won’t help if something happens to the transmission line between Jamestown or Adelaide, and it won’t cover long outages if gas generation backup fails to come on line, but it is a great first step. It will also prove the value of batteries in providing ancillary services, which will assist the roll-out of more and more batteries SA and Australia wide.
    The beauty in the whole thing is that Coalition- and a bit of Labor with the gas export thing – gross mismanagement of energy policy leading to price blowouts, has set the scene for a rapid transition to renewables and battery storage, on both sides of the meter.

  28. Trog Sorrenson

    Does The Australian realise that its reputation will not be enhanced by quoting these dingbats? Or perhaps their supporters are now the only readers!!

  30. What is ‘Senator’ Hanson’s solution to all the alcoholics, gambling addicts and junkies who have their electricity disconnected due to failure to pay their bills? Because they make up the vast majority of those who suffer that fate. Not little old grannies shivering by candlelight, that’s for freaking sure! Free drugs, alcohol and an unlimited tab at the club!?! Just so they can pay their bills? And how does usurious levels of rent factor into this inability to pay the electricity bill situation?

    Getting rid of the RET and ‘binning the Finkel Review’ (oh such emotive colloquial use of the language to trivialise it), neither of those things will make one iota of difference to these people’s behaviour. Anyway, I’d bet London to a brick that there would be more than 1 or 2 pensioners who have lost their pension down the club and that’s why they can’t pay their darn electricity bills!

    However, isn’t it interesting that these Fossil Fool troglodytes, like Hanson, Roberts and her enabler, Ashby, always try and tug at the heartstrings in order to push their grubby agenda.

    Yeah, nah, guys. Too obvious. Piss off.

  31. Interestingly the DT dead tree front page has a large image of Musk titled ION MAN (looking like comic book superhero Iron Man).

    The sub-heading is also interesting: “$22B Playboy Builds World’s Biggest Battery to Solve Australia’s energy Crisis”. Not SA’s energy crisis? What would Frydenberg say?

  32. Today’s PvO:

    One thing that is certain is when Howard and Costello retired from politics the Liberal Party lost its ideological way. And while it briefly was able to master the politics of dismantling Labor during Tony Abbott’s stint as opposition leader, that was an exercise in wrecking, not building.

    The Liberal Party’s years in opposition from 2007 to 2013 before returning to government saw limited renewal, modernisation or thought about what the party’s ethos is or should be; what should be retained from the Howard years, what needed to be jettisoned. The reform can was kicked down the road.

    The factions brawled, leaders curled up into small policy balls and fights worth having in the name of liberalism — on industrial relations, for example — were avoided. Little has changed.

    Abbott was a disappointment to conservatives as prime minister and now seeks to rectify that by hardening up his conservative credentials. But everything he spruiks is seen through the prism of instability, and it’s questionable whether Abbott’s brand of conservatism would share Howard’s appeal to mainstream voters.

    Look at who’s left in the upper echelons of this government and you will see the senior ranks are filled with names Howard — fairly or unfairly — never much rated.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/peter-costello-greatest-successor-the-liberals-never-had/news-story/818498f9426db0c8dbfcc70fde9432ab

  33. Trog
    I will probable disconnect the farm from the network in the next couple of years; but I don’t agree with regard batteries behind the meter. They have a limited life and they have to be maintained. The nice thing about the network is someone else maintains it. Time will tell.

  34. This shooting is going to turn into a big drama once the full-story comes out. All but confirmed the gun was a prop / part of a costume by witnesses now. We can expect lot’s of debate about whether the polices behaviour was justified. Personally I still think the guys an idiot and people should not be drunkenly playing with prop guns in nightclubs in this day and age, especially in light of recent events in Melbourne and abroad. Even the guys who dress up as these characters at comic con have it drilled into them not to carry the things around outside of the convention centre and communicate with police beforehand about the fact that people will be carrying prop weapons. This was straight up stupidity on this guys behalf.

  35. C@t

    I have taken to watching A Current affair lately. It is as crap as always. And you can bet your bottom dollar that on a regular basis they have a segment on Pauline Hanson. This past week they had her at Fish and Chip shop imparting her wisdom to help the current owners make money. Enough said…………

  36. Frednk
    Understand why you would not want batteries straightaway. I also have a small farm and my power bill is off the planet – equivalent to half a mortgage. First step, as soon as I can afford it, is to install at least 10 KW solar panels in the paddock and move as much demand as possible to daytime.
    Even though the power bill is crippling, I rejoice in the fact that the fossil fuel incumbents and their lackies are about to go out of business.

  37. Adam Schiff Devastates Trump’s Version Of The Putin Meeting With A Point By Point Destruction

    House Intel Committee ranking member Rep. Adam Schiff didn’t hold back on his skepticism as he destroyed all of the major points in the White House’s version of Trump’s meeting with Putin.

    The Secretary of State wants the American people to believe that the same president who refused to say that Russia hacked the election when asked by the press yesterday, now is Mr. Tough Guy.

    This White House lies to the American people on a daily basis, and since they didn’t allow notes to be taken at the meeting, there is no reason to believe that they are telling the truth about the Putin meeting.

    Adam Schiff is a former prosecutor who can spot BS a mile away. He isn’t buying the Trump White House’s description of the meeting and neither should you.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/07/adam-schiff-buying-white-house-version-trump.html

  39. Elaugaufein et al
    I was reading an article saying if we really wanted a stable, cheap power supply, the aim should be for all of us to go “off the grid” presumably using solar combined with storage like the lithium battery.
    BTW the media keep saying it’s the largest battery in the world but Chinese have a vanadium flow battery which is bigger

  40. Trog
    You make some good points about the coverage of SA’s gamechanging energy announcement. Assuming the mad uncle brigade are too scientifically illiterate to come up with their own criticisms, here are a few suggestions:
    1. Bird strikes hitting the wind turbines will cause micro-fluctuations in the power generation and destabilise the grid.
    2. Coriolis effects mean that the wind power generated in the SA turbines (southern hemisphere) will be incompatible with storage in the Tesla batteries made in the northern hemisphere.
    3. Heat from so many battries in close proximity will cause a fire. The resulting explosion will devastate the SA mid north.
    4. Competition from the battery power will reduce Orogin and AGL profits, leading to mass unemployment in the Adelaide cbd.

  43. Grimace @ #1224 Friday, July 7, 2017 at 11:18 pm

    @ Cud Chewer

    A big part of the problem with the debate on “electricity” prices is that most of the price is made up by things other than the generation cost, the biggest individual component of a bill is the grid costs, and the capacity charge is nearly as much as the generation cost.

    A doubling of the generation cost is not going to do anything like double the retail price of electricity, and we need to have an honest discussion about all the components of an electricity cost.

    Tks, Grimace. Good post.

    Much of the general discussion on the ‘electricity price’ is like taking the total of some ones last bill from AGL and comparing it with how much a salesman told them it would cost to put a few solar panels on their garage roof.

    I think most standalone houses in a town or city location will stay connected to the Grid. If the householder has installed enough Solar to sustain them even 95% of the time they will still want Grid connection as backup.

    And they will need to pay for that.

    Clear separation of the cost of the energy supplied and the costs of getting it to the home is needed.

  44. Fess

    Thanks for reminder. Bill Maher said he needed to recharge his batteries. The Trump imbroglio has drained him!!

  45. Victoria:

    The Trump imbroglio has drained me and I’m not even living in the US where you see it on a daily basis!

  46. Good Morning

    I see the right is still in shock. No counter narrative to the reality that Labor in South Australia has sliced and diced the last ten years of LNP narrative that Labor in pursuing climate change policy has caused power prices to rise.

    The problem for the Right is that Elon Musk is the personification of their neo liberal dream. A private citizen using his fortune to make a difference. The bad luck for them is that Elon Musk is for the future and has no qualms about the reality that the era of fossil fuels is drawing to a close.

    This is the dilemma for the right. Reality is biting and even their own beloved model of neo liberalism entrepreneur is embracing collective action by the community even as he uses his fortune to advance humanity.

    What a pity the neo liberal model entrepreneur sees the benefit of the social in community. You also see this with silicon valley giants like Apple and Google. Their whole business model is the social in community.

    This is why neo liberalism is dead. The technologies of the future depend on the social to work.

  48. ‘Abbott was a disappointment to conservatives as prime minister and now seeks to rectify that by hardening up his conservative credentials.’

    I’m struggling to understand this. Abbott tried to institute a conservative agenda, and the Australian people – and thus the Senate, and his own party – rejected it. Abbott hasn’t changed, he’s still spruiking now what he spruiked then.

    ‘I utterly reject economic criticisms that Howard baked in unsustainable middle-class welfare via family tax benefits. They were affordable then but not now. Any modern government worth its salt would win the argument to remove them now that the fiscal going is tough. That’s not Howard’s failure.’

    Dear PvO, there is a difference between affordable and sensible. I might be able to afford an ocean going yacht, but it also might be more sensible for me to invest the money in something which will be of greater benefit in the long term, rather than waiting until a crisis hits and then trying to sell the yacht.

    ‘Where Howard did fail, which brings us back to the problems Liberals have had since his departure, is via a lack of succession planning. He honestly believed Costello was young enough, and ambitious enough, to continue in politics on the opposition benches as leader, despite missing out on the prime ministership via an orderly handover. ‘

    We all ‘honestly believe’ things when we want to believe them. It was blindingly obvious to anyone in the lead up to the 2007 election that Howard should step down and hand the job to Costello. He didn’t because he didn’t want to.

    ‘Instead, Costello put lifestyle, family and financial security first, departing politics soon after the 2007 defeat’

    This is a polite way of saying Costello couldn’t be arsed. And Costello couldn’t be arsed because he always wanted to be given things, on the basis that he deserved them. He was never a fighter, and thus would never have made a half competent Opposition leader.

    (It turns out PvO and I are largely in agreement, particularly when he admits he might be viewing Costello through rose coloured glasses…)

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/peter-costello-greatest-successor-the-liberals-never-had/news-story/818498f9426db0c8dbfcc70fde9432ab

  49. On the disconnection issue. ABC News Radio today has been reporting record levels of disconnection from the grid in unregulated markets. The glaring exception is the ACT where regulation has seen connection maintained an even rising slightly

  50. Dio
    There has been a failure (one of many) in Australia to install grid stabilising technologies in new energy sources here. But they are possible. See this article.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/neoen-aims-1gw-wind-solar-2020-hornsdale-3-financing-54773/

    As for costs, a large collective battery connected to the grid will be cheaper than a battery storage in every home. The former might cost $100 million, $200 per SA household. A battery pack in every home would cost several thousand $ per home.

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