Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.

Elsewhere:

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 31
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  1. If money amplifies the voices of wealthy Americans in politics, Seattle is trying something that aims to give low-income and middle-class voters a signal boost.

    The city’s new ‘Democracy Voucher’ program, the first of its kind in the US, provides every eligible Seattle resident with $100 in taxpayer-funded vouchers to donate to the candidates of their choice. The goal is to incentivize candidates to take heed of a broad range of residents – homeless people, minimum-wage workers, seniors on fixed incomes – as well as the big-dollar donors who often dictate the political conversation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/07/democracy-vouchers-seattle-politics-low-income-homeless?CMP=soc_568

  4. Frednk
    I was not comparing Snowy 2.0 so much with the 100MW SA battery, as making the point that any sort of centralised storage is at a disadvanrage to behind the meter storage because of trnsmission costs and the cost of having to deal with another party. Snowy 2.0, or any source of energy on the grid, will always be at a cost disadcantage to that generated or stored on site. Once the cost of electricity generated on site is less than the cost of transmission, then even grid electriciy generated at 0 cost has no attraction. That is what makes the distributed energy model so disruptive.

  5. For what Musk wants to do ( and this may have been posted on a site like renew economy), he would require many gigafactories around the globe, so why not sit one in Australia?
    I do suspect these factories would be highly automated which is bad, as there would be fewer jobs, but good because the wage differential between here and Asia wouldn’t be as significant.
    I assume quality of the local mains power wouldn’t be as significant for him compared to other manufacturers.

  6. John Reidy
    Why not put it in South America ? Half of the world’s Lithium is in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia and el cheapo labor to boot.

  8. John, the problem with Australia is we are such a tiny fraction of the world’s population.
    Same problem we have with cars.
    We need to go more high tech.

  9. The problem with Musk is he grew up in the land of corporate welfare. When he goes to build factories elsewhere he’ll also be looking for “special deals” there too.

  10. Here is the biggest communications challenge ahead of the next election:
    Conveying to ordinary punters the fact that electricity prices have gone up, and will continue to go up, because of industry uncertainty over energy policy.
    What it needs, bizarrely, is an Abbott-like mind-numbingly simple, repetitive slogan that conveys this truth. The challenge is, of course, that it’s a somewhat complex and somewhat counter-intuitive proposition.
    But I would wager that if Labor could successfully prosecute that single message, then climate/energy policy will be centrestage in a way that advantages Labor. What I would like to see if relentless ads with business leaders demanding certainty and explicitly blaming the likes of Abbott for driving up power prices.

  11. Was that Renew Economy article on CCS quoted by mark Butler this one?

    ‘ Coal CEO admits that ‘clean coal’ is a myth’

    While many clean energy analysts have long been dubious of CCS for economic, environmental, and practical reasons, the coal industry has touted “clean coal” as the long-term saviour of the industry in a carbon-constrained world.

    That’s why it’s so stunning a top coal CEO like Murray would now say that clean coal isn’t a real thing.

    “It is neither practical nor economic, carbon capture and sequestration,” he said last week. “It is just cover for the politicians, both Republicans and Democrats(and LNP Members), that say, ‘Look what I did for coal,’ knowing all the time that it doesn’t help coal at all.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-ceo-admits-that-clean-coal-is-a-myth-69570/

  12. I’ve been watching live coverage of the G20 on The Guardian website. Haven’t seen hide nor hair of Trumble yet. 🙂

  13. Oh yes I have!

    ?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=30a0e1190f4918192a5fbd3e5d4ec0a4

    Plus, if you look at the photo you’ll see that Trump was not put front and centre with Angela Merkel. 😉

  15. Alias,

    I guess the simple message to the punters should be along the lines of supply and demand. Build more power stations and price will go down. Then say that a Labor government will build more renewable power stations.

  16. c@tmomma @ #1213 Friday, July 7, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    Oh yes I have!
    ?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=30a0e1190f4918192a5fbd3e5d4ec0a4″ rel=”nofollow”>?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=30a0e1190f4918192a5fbd3e5d4ec0a4
    Plus, if you look at the photo you’ll see that Trump was not put front and centre with Angela Merkel.

    It looks like they Macron next to Trump probably to keep him under control. 🙂

  17. BiGD,
    I think they put Trump next to Macron and the leader of the world’s biggest Muslim nation, Indonesia, to discombobulate him. 🙂

  18. Evidently the 100MW battery will only power 13000 homes for 24 hours in a blackout. That’s hardly a game-changer.

  19. I know this will not end the PB Energy Wars…because what would a certain subset of posters have to write about if so? However, Dr John Hewson resolves them in one easy to understand paragraph:

    But, equally, the Renewables industry has also been its own worst enemy, by exaggerating the cost and emissions advantages of sun and wind, without acknowledging and costing backup from coal, or open cycle gas.

    And with this paragraph, provides the solution:

    Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has correctly recommended, and the government has agreed, that the focus must be on “dispatchable power”, where the backup/storage is also recognised and costed. Indeed, I suggest, and declaring an interest in the development of effective storage, that the government should go further and insist on retrofitting existing wind and solar farms with storage.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-must-take-on-abbott-over-renewables-20170706-gx6cna.html

    Now, isn’t everyone content to declare a truce in the Energy Wars? 🙂

  20. Diogenes

    Is there any point to the G20 protests

    Yeah , resistance is futile, best we all lay down and get screwed by the banksters and neoliberal orcs eh ?

  21. Dio,
    Evidently the 100MW battery will only power 13000 homes for 24 hours in a blackout. That’s hardly a game-changer.

    No, it’s likely the first of many more to come. Also, for a neat solution, see Dr Hewson’s suggestion above. 🙂

  24. @ Cud Chewer

    A big part of the problem with the debate on “electricity” prices is that most of the price is made up by things other than the generation cost, the biggest individual component of a bill is the grid costs, and the capacity charge is nearly as much as the generation cost.

    A doubling of the generation cost is not going to do anything like double the retail price of electricity, and we need to have an honest discussion about all the components of an electricity cost.

  25. “Yeah , resistance is futile, best we all lay down and get screwed by the banksters and neoliberal orcs eh ?”
    Are they protesting against bankers? No-one even reports what they are protesting against. Do you think they are actually helping their cause?

  27. I think they are protesting against “globalisation” but I’m fairly sure Trump
    is taking care of that side of things.

  29. Dio,
    According to Dr John Hewson, it would be smart to put battery storage attached to every solar and wind farm.

  32. The reports I read on the batteries in SA today suggested it was a very significant outcome, if you are Chris Uhlmann or have invested your entire retirement in coal, you’d obviously be downplaying it, if on the other hand you are an intelligent human concerned in anyway about the future it is indeed a game changer.

  33. WWP
    Depends on lots of things.
    Lifespan
    Cost
    CO2 cost of building it and disposing of it
    How effective it is
    How reliable it is

  34. There is lots of information on this weird new untried renewable energy thing, you’d be surprised that they can kinda work out the wind profile and weirdly even when the sun is likely to be up at a location, really really odd but you put when the sun it usually up (hint it is the day time) and when the wind blows (it is a bit harder than the whole day / night mystery but apparently you can look at records etc and predict it) and for example you can know at a particular site whether sun and wind is complimentary (ie sun during the day and wind at night) or whether the sun is gonna shine during the day when the wind is likely to blow. Unsurprising when you put this together with other factors well FMD you can begin to work out how much storage you need.

  35. There really aren’t all that many things, it reminds me of when there was a paid tour of Australia by the nuclear industry, you could pick the weak impressionable minds by how fast they were to adopt unquestioningly every single bit of spin that had been shovelled at them direct from the bulls bottom during the paid tour. It was like they confused a paid promotional tour with intelligent impartial analysis.

  37. wewantpaul @ #1235 Friday, July 7, 2017 at 11:41 pm

    There really aren’t all that many things, it reminds me of when there was a paid tour of Australia by the nuclear industry, you could pick the weak impressionable minds by how fast they were to adopt unquestioningly every single bit of spin that had been shovelled at them direct from the bulls bottom during the paid tour. It was like they confused a paid promotional tour with intelligent impartial analysis.

    But WWP, nuclear is so cheap!*

    *If someone else (i.e., taxpayers) are on the hook for a huge chunk of the construction costs, laws are changed to reduce/eliminate the otherwise applicable liabilities that the plant operator would have to insure against at huge cost and someone else (i.e. taxpayers) guarantee the decommissioning costs of the plant.

  38. wewantpaul @ #1235 Friday, July 7, 2017 at 11:41 pm

    There really aren’t all that many things, it reminds me of when there was a paid tour of Australia by the nuclear industry, you could pick the weak impressionable minds by how fast they were to adopt unquestioningly every single bit of spin that had been shovelled at them direct from the bulls bottom during the paid tour. It was like they confused a paid promotional tour with intelligent impartial analysis.

    You should also realise that the nuclear industry is just 5 years away from some advance in technology that will enormously drop cost and risks, and only if {insert the latest excuse here} would happen, nuclear would be so much cheaper.

  39. I’m glad we have accepted that we need to be able to store renewable energy rather rely on it for baseload power.

  40. WWP, one nice thing is that wind and sunshine tend to anti-correlate.
    Weather that brings less sun often brings more wind.

  41. Putin And The Russians Look Delighted To Be Meeting With Their Trump Puppet

    The Russians could barely hide their joy and were all smiles as Putin met Trump at the G20.

    Trump looked exhausted and did not try one of his power game handshakes on Putin. The Russians looked very happy, while Trump played the part of the junior partner or conspirator as the evidence may someday show. If there was enough doubt raised about the Trump/Russia relationship, this meeting where the Russians can barely hide their giddiness of the weak US president made what has long been suspected obvious.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/07/putin-russians-delighted-meeting-trump-puppet.html

  42. Russia Scandal Fires Grow As Trump Holds Two Hour Plus Putin Meeting With Staff Kept Out

    Trump met with Putin with no notes allowed for more than two hours and also demanded that staff be kept out to avoid information about the meeting being made public.

    The fact that Trump is trying to keep his meeting with Putin secret suggests that this president has something to hide, as he managed to take the Russia scandal and turn it into an inferno because he refuses to be transparent.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/07/russia-scandal-fires-grow-trump-holds-hour-putin-meeting-staff.html

  43. Russian FM: Trump Accepted Putin’s Claim That Russia Didn’t Interfere in US Election

    Sergey Lavrov told reporters that Republican President Donald Trump accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assurances that Russia didn’t meddled in the 2016 presidential election.

    More big talk as Russia spits in the US President’s eye and the US President does nothing except have his people lamely deny- maybe sort of but not really – the charge that he took Putin’s word on Russia’s meddling. This is called rolling over and playing dead. A green light, as suggested, to continue the theft of democracy.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/07/russian-fm-trump-accepted-putins-claim-russia-interfere-election.html

  44. ‘Clearly she failed’: Tillerson says Melania was sent in repeatedly to break up Trump-Putin meeting

    First Lady Melania Trump was dispatched to break up the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin when it ran over its allotted 30 minutes.

    The First Lady was reportedly sent in at the one hour mark and the meeting only ended after Trump and Putin spent two hours and 16 minutes together.

    Aides have fretted about leaving Trump alone with the Russian president, who is known as a cunning manipulator. Former spies said earlier this week that Trump’s ego would be Putin’s biggest ally in bending the U.S. president to his agenda.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/clearly-she-failed-tillerson-says-melania-was-sent-in-repeatedly-to-break-up-trump-putin-meeting/

  46. Predictably amusing, that Frydenberg immediately downplays Musk batteries.
    “Call that a knife? This is a knife.”

  47. FRom John Hewson:
    Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has correctly recommended, and the government has agreed, that the focus must be on “dispatchable power”, where the backup/storage is also recognised and costed. Indeed, I suggest, and declaring an interest in the development of effective storage, that the government should go further and insist on retrofitting existing wind and solar farms with storage.
    How about the next ALP govt. provide a rebate to all those with existing solar panels to add battery storage? That would be a fast way to get homes less reliant on the grid.

  49. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Plenty to keep you occupied today.

    Peter Hartcher tells us that Rudd has reversed the position he held in office, saying that North Korea’s newly demonstrated ability to reach northern Australia meant it was time to consider homeland defence. Well there you go!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-should-consider-missile-defence-to-counter-north-korea-kevin-rudd-20170707-gx6t0u.html
    John Hewson is right. Turnbull HAS to take on Abbott over renewables. And he says it’s not all Abbott’s fault but he does write “Abbott is driven only by personal ambition and revenge. He is prepared to trash our international standing a la Paris, and create and exploit disunity in the Liberal Party for his personal ends. I didn’t see any evidence of his recently acquired religious zeal for “direction” or for the party’s grassroots throughout his time as a minister or as leader.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-must-take-on-abbott-over-renewables-20170706-gx6cna.html
    Laurie Oakes writes “A chill should have run down the spines of Liberal MPs on Thursday when they read that Tony Abbott wants them to trust his judgment. He was criticising the government, he said, because he had made the judgment that he should “stand up for those Liberals feeling a bit let down”. And he would use his judgment to decide when to abandon divisive activities and throw his support behind efforts to win the next election.” He then goes on to show just how bad Abbott’s judgement really was. Google.
    /news/opinion/laurie-oakes/liberal-mps-should-be-wary-as-tony-abbotts-record-shows-the-value-of-his-judgment/news-story/f86a665c884410b6ec8a5172901c13f0
    Karen Middleton on the planning for Abbott’s exit.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/07/08/planning-tony-abbotts-exit/14994360004895
    Tony Wright suggests that Turnbull must be bricking himself in Hamburg with worry over what either or both of Abbott and Joyce might get up to while he’s away.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sketch-barnaby-joyce-and-tony-abbott-haunt-malcolm-turnbull-to-hamburg-20170707-gx6r5d.html
    Paul Bongiorno with his take on Abbott’s escalated mischief making.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/07/08/tony-abbott-keeps-the-fight/14994360004889
    Jim Pembroke writes about Malcolm’s and Barnaby’s extraordinary prenuptial agreement.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-and-barnabys-bizarre-prenuptial-agreement,10479
    This snub of Trump by Poland’s First Lady was magnificent!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/06/donald-trump-snubbed-by-polands-first-lady-agata-kornhauser-dud_a_23019910/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Anne Summers contrasts the behaviour of New Yorkers with that of Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/in-a-terror-scare-americans-display-the-wisdom-that-eludes-donald-trump-20170706-gx6ah1.html

  50. Section 2 . . .

    In an interesting contribution Wendy Squires looks at the concept of “outrage fatigue”. She has a point. It’s quite a call to arms actually.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/beware-of-outrage-fatigue-there-are-good-reasons-to-be-angry-20170706-gx64nj.html
    Ross Gittins – In search of the American Dream. It’s not going too well.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/in-search-of-the-elusive-american-dream-20170707-gx6kdt.html
    More trouble for Bellamy’s as it hits another Chinese trade obstacle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/bellamys-australia-hits-another-roadblock-in-china-as-export-licence-suspended-20170706-gx6gi5.html
    Richard Ackland looks at the slew of recent Coalition legal appointments.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/07/08/the-coalitions-legal-appointments/14994360004894
    A few good economic indicators and Coalition disunity are distracting us from fundamental structural weaknesses in the Australian economy, writes Ian McAuley.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/07/07/a-bad-party-in-good-times-is-hiding-the-truth-about-our-fragile-economy/
    Employment department says it cannot guarantee PaTH interns will not be asked to work shifts that would normally go to paid staff. Well there’s a surprise!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/07/path-internships-could-be-used-to-avoid-paying-penalty-rates-department-admits
    Mike Seccombe describes the PaTH program as another example of intergenerational theft.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/ir/2017/07/08/path-and-intergenerational-theft/14994360004885
    Adele Ferguson has more on the retirement village issues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/retirement-village-residents-are-happy–probably-perhaps-maybe-20170707-gx6rr3.html
    Has Dominies Pizza put itself into the cost accounting death spiral?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dominos-pizza-pulls-out-all-stops-to-cut-costs-but-soft-drink-swap-dangerous-20170707-gx6vxl.html

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