Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)

More evidence of a solid swing to Labor in the electorally sensitive state of Queensland, and a decline in One Nation support from its peak earlier in the year.

The Courier-Mail today has federal results from the Queensland poll by Galaxy, for which state results were published on Saturday. It has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, which represents a 4.1% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election, and a one point shift to Labor since the previous such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is at 35% (steady since February, down from 43.2% at the election); Labor at 33% (up four since February, and up from 30.9% at the election); and One Nation at 15% (down three since the last poll; comparisons with the federal election are not meaningful as did not run in a majority of the seats). The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)”

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  1. “The best QANDAs are the ones without any pollies”.. and the ones without Tony Jones, or any ABC ‘personalities’.

  2. I heard Barnaby Joyce on the car radio the other day being interviewed about Westpac’s decision not to fund poor quality coal investments (which means they won’t fund Adani). He didn’t sound particularly coherent. In fact, that overused word ‘unhinged’ would come closer. He was really upset at the prospect of the whole Adani thing crashing and burning. He was avoiding answering the questions put (e.g. “do you agree that we should boycott westpac?”) and was instead babbling on about how poor people in India won’t have enough power to cook their dinner. Or something.

    The usual question comes to mind, what the * is going on between the Government and Adani that they are so desperate to get this up? I don’t think it’s because the Government or Adani care about poor people, in India or anywhere else.

  3. peebee @ #348 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 8:50 pm

    Poroti, thanks for the link. I believe the passenger beside my relative was a Samoan. It makes sense, light weighted people such as Mrs Bemused could pay less for her flight (or use the savings to do shopping and carry more home – sorry Bemused).

    No offence taken.

  4. Steve777:

    What is going on with the feds and Adani must be the $64,000 question. Malcolm used to bang on about the NBN and lack of cost benefit analysis, yet here he is willing as PM to hand over millions in taxpayer funds when no financial institution wants to touch Adani coal mine with a barge pole.

    Talk about the benefits don’t stack up against the costs to taxpayers.

  5. “The usual question comes to mind, what the * is going on between the Government and Adani that they are so desperate to get this up? I don’t think it’s because the Government or Adani care about poor people, in India or anywhere else.”

    And nothing to do with Gina having a mining licence in the area; nothing at all.

  6. Hello Diogenes. I just looked up that vestibular thing. It looks pretty unpleasant. Hope you’re fully recovered or will be very soon.

  7. QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 39%, ALP 30%, GREENS 12%.

    So they are going with primary votes. Left out others though.

  8. Re Qanda. It has been ages since the Coal have been anywhere near 39%, and the same for the Greens and 12%. They’ve also taken 20% off the Labor vote. Well, it’s their ABC. To be expected, I suppose.

  9. QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 39%, ALP 30%, GREENS 12%.

    Guytaur:

    They haven’t used polling for a while now to determine audience representation. Or at least not since Labor started leading in the polls.

  10. Guytaur,

    How can Q&A be going on primary votes ? All polls have both labor and the coalition around 35 -36 %.

    Not having a go at you but wondering if I am missing something.

    Cheers.

  11. sohar @ #363 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    Re Qanda. It has been ages since the Coal have been anywhere near 39%, and the same for the Greens and 12%. They’ve also taken 20% off the Labor vote. Well, it’s their ABC. To be expected, I suppose.

    Yeah, right. And everyone in the audience told the truth?
    From comments previously made on PB, I suspect a lot haven’t. It is meaningless.

  12. Bemused

    Of course. Have not heard of checking with ABC Compass results or Newspoll etc.

    However even the pretence is wrong

  13. Guytaur:

    Seriously? Qanda is populating its audience based on the 2013 election results, not the 2016 results or even current polling?

    Why bother to audience screen at all, just allow a free for all, first in best dressed scenario. Fascinating the spin our public broadcaster will emit.

  14. Reuters: BREAKING: Hamas removes from a new document its call for Israel’s destruction: Gulf Arab sources

  15. Tricot This would be, at a guess, a city the size of Newcastle!

    This is totally irrelevant to your point, but as a proud Novocastrian I must point out that the City of Newcastle has 150,000 people and the Greater Newcastle area has half a million people.

    So there!

  16. Out of all the MPs named in this recent Queensland poll as at risk of losing their seat, none would be more deserving than Ross Vasta. Complete non-entity that he is.

    Vasta has managed to snake his way through the undergrowth for so many years, without any meaningful contribution to public life. We thought we had seen the last of him in 07, but somehow managed to slither his way back into parliament three years later.

    Along with Dickson, Bonner will be a most satisfying victory for Queensland Labor I am sure.

  17. Bemused – **Yeah, right. And everyone in the audience told the truth?**
    Ye of little faith. Why are you scared of trust?

  18. SandraEckersley: Barnaby Joyce refuses to take tweets seriously? Why then did he condemn Yassmin so vehemently? #hypocrite #auspol

  19. simon aussie katich @ #380 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    Bemused – **Yeah, right. And everyone in the audience told the truth?**
    Ye of little faith. Why are you scared of trust?

    Simon, trust me, I have this great bridge to sell you. Only one previous owner, going for a song!
    Send me your bank details.

  20. Out of all the MPs named in this recent Queensland poll as at risk of losing their seat, none would be more deserving than Ross Vasta.

    I know Vasta is a nonentity, do nothing typical LNP pot plant. But still, I reckon Dutton tops the list of those most deserving to lose his seat.

  21. Bemused,
    what type of bridge? Howe truss?

    I will see if Westpac will spot me a loan. Unless you plan to sell me an Adani

  22. “I know Vasta is a nonentity, do nothing typical LNP pot plant. But still, I reckon Dutton tops the list of those most deserving to lose his seat.”

    They will will both be satisfying for different reasons.

    BTW Confessions, can you ease up on the ‘Qld hick’ rhetoric you touched on in your comment about Barnaby Joyce? It is quite distasteful, and all parts of Australia have a cross to bear with regard to right wing politics.

    Cheers.

  23. The Coalition’s obsession with Adani coal mines seems to be a culture war gambit – a a bloody-minded effort to stick it their perceived enemies (scientists, environmentalists, most people). These culture war gestures are a substitute for a coherent view of how the world should be.

  24. BTW Confessions, can you ease up on the ‘Qld hick’ rhetoric you touched on in your comment about Barnaby Joyce?

    Why would I do that when it’s true?

  25. Briefly

    It will be a miracle if the SNP does not lose some of the 56 seats. It is a FPTP system and in 2015 the unionist vote was split. The Labour Party has lost most of its voters to the SNP but a minority to the Tories. This time the unionist votes will likely be more consolidated with the Tories, increasing their chances in a few seats.
    (The Labour Party is so unhinged it will support Tories over the SNP. Its final bastion the majority of local governments in Scotland will be gone this week. The will finally be turfed out of Glasgow.)

    The Greens may volunteer to not contest some seats to not split the independence vote.

    The SNP will still retain a large majority of Scottish seats in WEstminster. Maybe this will be the last time they go south and waste their time.

  26. “Why would I do that when it’s true?”

    It is actually just your opinion, but clearly I can’t convince to ease up so I will leave it at that.

  27. Fess, Mike H

    ‘So Barnyard is now more eloquent, wow.’

    Barnaby is also ‘much more sophisticated now’.

  28. MarkDiStef: Barnaby Joyce on whether government will stump up money for the Adani coal mine, which won’t come from banks: “I suspect not”

    Well thats the end of Adani then 🙂

  29. MarkDiStef: Barnaby Joyce on whether government will stump up money for the Adani coal mine, which won’t come from banks: “I suspect not”

    Incredible if this is what he said.

  30. Fess

    Joyce talking a lot defending the indefensible.

    Jones interrupts Joyce with comment we have a real scientist on the panel. A nobel laureate no less. Lets hear from him.

  31. Ross Vasta’s wife’s name is Fang. 🙂

    Suffice to say, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree in the Vasta family:

    Angelo Vasta was a judge of the Supreme Court of Queensland. He took office on 13 February 1984 and was removed from office on 8 June 1989.

    His son, Ross Vasta, has been a member of the Australian House of Representatives since 2010, and previously served from 2004 to 2007

    If you want to reacquaint yourself with the infamous Vasta family, read this:
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-bid-to-re-instate-disgraced-justice-angelo-vasta,10096

  32. Guytaur:

    Nobel Laureates don’t amount to a hill of beans on Qanda when the show has a headline generator in Barnaby. Jerry Springer for elites.

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