Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)

More evidence of a solid swing to Labor in the electorally sensitive state of Queensland, and a decline in One Nation support from its peak earlier in the year.

The Courier-Mail today has federal results from the Queensland poll by Galaxy, for which state results were published on Saturday. It has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, which represents a 4.1% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election, and a one point shift to Labor since the previous such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is at 35% (steady since February, down from 43.2% at the election); Labor at 33% (up four since February, and up from 30.9% at the election); and One Nation at 15% (down three since the last poll; comparisons with the federal election are not meaningful as did not run in a majority of the seats). The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)”

  1. Ha, ha Poroti. How do you think Le Pen will pay her French Workers when she ringbarks their jobs off from the EU? Those changes to their pay and conditions will come thicker and faster than Macron could ever dream of.

    Macron is simply acknowledging the reality that jobs in France are being lost to Low Wage countries. His solution is to face this reality and propose a new system that is not as generous as the current one. Has Le Pen outlined any details of her IR policy? Other than French Workers will have jobs? Yes, but under what sort of pay and conditions? Please point me to the specifics of her IR policy if you have access to them.

  2. bemused @ #599 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    rex douglas @ #574 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    I hope Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten is are taking note of Daniel Andrews’ Vic state budget ‘with a heart’.

    Goodness me Rex, you are a monument to education under a Liberal Govt!
    Only one of the two you mention is in a position to bring down a Federal Budget. Be patient grasshopper, Bill will be PM all in good time.

    A ripping budget, bemused, don’t you think ?

  3. boerwar @ #545 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 1:04 pm

    Hard Right Ideologues in the Tory Party favour the nuclear option.
    Simply, do no deal at all on anything and walk out in two year’s time.

    …….

    Well the Germans seem to be making noises that they intend to make it as hard as possible for the UK as possible and then still expect them to 50 B Euros or so in ‘contributions up to 2020’ anyway and then nothing special regarding export access – so why pay the EU anything ?

    Then you have the likes of Belgium etc almost opening salivating at how hard they intend to make it for the UK ?

    So why pay them anything ?

    Hopefully calmer heads will prevail all around by I wouldn’t count on it.

    Putin must love it all.

  4. C@Tmomma

    whoever laughed at the suggestion that macron pay for the workers, is no different to whoever cut them in the first place.

    Like for e.g the LNP right wing nutters here, cut wages, cut super, cut conditions, cut welfare, cut the economy etc etc with trickle down economics.

    To the extent the unemployment numbers not really changed.

  5. AR
    Apart from limited bandwidth, the big issue with satellite is latency i.e. the time it takes for a signal to travel from the earth to the satellite and back again. These orbits are 36000 kms above the equator, and the resulting time lag means a Skype session, for example, will always be out of sync.
    When you are trying to communicate, or remotely control a device, this is a huge issue.
    The amounts of data available for NBN satellite plans are also grossly inadequate.
    The solution for many regional areas is to run out more fibre backbone to fixed wireless.
    This can cover, or be relayed through, any point that is line of site to the fixed wireless antenna at very low cost.

  6. “Not sure if this segment will make the CH10 Stephen Colbert show tonight ???”

    Why are all Australian ‘satirists’ on TV so bloody piss-weak?

    If they had 10% of the satiric skills of a Colbert, with the daring to match, I’d be happy.

  7. a r @ #597 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    There’s some discussion (and a nice graphic) here:
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/ten-cool-facts-about-nbns-forthcoming-sky-muster-satellite-service-20160202-gmjpow.html

    I had to laugh at this bit …

    The satellite broadband connection at the testing facility in Brunswick recorded download speeds of around 25Mbps and upload speeds of around 4Mbps.

    Theoretically, I pay for these speeds. But the fastest speeds I actually get on a good day are about 1/3 of this – i.e. about 8-9Mbps download and 1.3Mbps upload.

    In other words, the satellite is already overloaded.

  8. If calmer heads were going to prevail, they wouldn’t have farmed economic policy out to the masses, while allowing politicians to get away with telling people they could have their cake and eat it too.

    Calmer heads will not prevail with anything Brexit related.

  9. rex douglas @ #603 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    bemused @ #599 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    rex douglas @ #574 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    I hope Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten is are taking note of Daniel Andrews’ Vic state budget ‘with a heart’.

    Goodness me Rex, you are a monument to education under a Liberal Govt!
    Only one of the two you mention is in a position to bring down a Federal Budget. Be patient grasshopper, Bill will be PM all in good time.

    A ripping budget, bemused, don’t you think ?

    Andrew’s budget? I haven’t had time to read up on it yet.

  10. “Turnbull has gone for the full bells, whistles, froth and bubbles announcing the new schools funding policy.”

    Expect this to be lapped up by the usual suspects, especially the ABC, who will use it as yet another excuse to interview a govt minister.

  11. C@Tmomma

    See there’s the problem. The workers keep getting shoveled shit and are expected to keep sucking it up because the other lot are worse. It is not going to end well.

  12. adrian Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:29 pm
    “Not sure if this segment will make the CH10 Stephen Colbert show tonight ???”
    Why are all Australian ‘satirists’ on TV so bloody piss-weak?
    If they had 10% of the satiric skills of a Colbert, with the daring to match, I’d be happy.

    *************************************************
    Its kinda funny Adrian but seeing as I posted Stephen’s takedown of Trump – I was concerned about the language he used and debated with myself what is acceptable to use on a forum of today ….. and its hard to know these days what can be said without offence – both here and in many social situation – there is such a wide variety of what is acceptable in an era of free speech ……the recent Anzac Day controversy springs to mind

    I still remember George Carlin’ s – “7 words you can’t say on TV” – and I’d still be hesitant to list some of them here ( google it if you need to know )

    Any thoughts ??????

  13. Regarding the French Presidential Election and the lack of enthusiasm for Marcon in some quarters due to his lack of charisma and policy, I can recall reading reports of the 2002 French Presidential Election.
    Jacques Chirac, well known to be corrupt, was facing off against Jean-Marie Le Pen, more of a fascist than his daughter.
    Confronted with this choice, many voted for Chirac under the slogan ‘Better the Crook than the Fascist!’.
    The vote was approached with such disdain by some that they wore gloves to handle the ballot paper and some even used tongs!
    Perhaps they could go to the poll this time with the slogan ‘Better Bland than Mad!’ to overcome their lack of enthusiasm.

  14. poroti,
    Purgatory or Hell? Hmmm.

    I guess there would be one growth industry under Le Pen. The French equivalent of ICE.

  15. The French people missed an opportunity by not endorsing Mélenchon as President. They’re now stuck with either dumb or dumber.

  16. PhoenixRED, it’s not so much the words – most people seem inured to most bad language these days.
    It’s just that satire seems to be a dying art form in Australia, especially anything that dares to question the powerful and the wealthy in any substantial way.

    Imagine the Colbert spray on Trump getting aired in Australia if the target was Turnbull.

  17. C@Tmomma

    It will be a baguettes lead economic recovery.

    French shoppers would be paying for their baguettes in francs within a year if far-right candidate Marine Le Pen wins the presidential election

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20170501/french-will-be-buy-baguettes-in-francs-after-le-pen-win-says-party-deputy
    On a slightly more serious note. The French worker has a bit of a stereotype of being somewhat slack. Turns out for productivity they rank ahead of even the Germans and are 15% ahead of Australian workers.
    http://time.com/4621185/worker-productivity-countries/

  18. ctar1 @ #593 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    DG
    This usually works for me if I run into trouble with Crikey’s firewall.
    Put what you’re trying to post into a plain text editor like Windows Notepad. If there are any square brackets get rid of them or replace with curly brackets.
    Putting it in a text editor will get rid of hidden characters in the text. Then copy and paste that into the ‘leave a comment’ box.
    Good luck!

    All I was trying to post was one sentence of text (no characters or emojis) and one link.

    It just wouldn’t work.

  19. Poroti, C@t….the French economy needs to be even more deeply and finely integrated with the German economy and with those of its nearest moons, Holland, Belgium, Luxembourg and Austria. The German economy exhibits higher growth in labour productivity, higher export potential, higher rates of capital accumulation, higher national savings and, thanks to its immigration policies, higher growth in its workforce and lower unemployment. Germany has been able to grow its per capita incomes at a rate that has consistently eluded France. The French can reverse this anytime they choose.

    Le Pen is a bigot. That should make her unelectable. She is also a chauvinist – a neo Imperialiat. This is just as dangerous.

    France needs to modernise. Instead it has been tempted by nostalgia. Really, they should stop feeling so sorry for themselves and take advantage of the opportunities that await them. This is all the more to be embraced because of the stupidities of the English, who are about to forfeit their access to the EU.

  20. The French people missed an opportunity by not endorsing Mélenchon as President.

    Yes, you’d love it if people voted for a guy who could barely bring himself to endorse a Centre Left candidate over a fascist. In fact, he couldn’t even do that much. The best he could come up with was to tell his supporters to not vote for Le Pen. What a slimebag.

    And the vote for the Socialists coming in at 6% told you everything you need to know about what the French people thought of Far Left policies.

  21. This is all the more to be embraced because of the stupidities of the English, who are about to forfeit their access to the EU.

    So it’s no wonder Theresa May wanted to run to an election. Before the Brexit merde hit the Brits fair in the face.

  22. Adrian

    Imagine the Colbert spray on Trump getting aired in Australia if the target was Turnbull.

    The next day I would buy a copy of The Telegraph, The Australian and listen to 2GB the whole day. So much spittle and apoplexy to enjoy 🙂

  23. poroti,
    So no actual specifics about Le Pen’s IR policy. Only a reference to nostalgia, i.e. the French Franc.

    Thought so.

  24. adrian Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:54 pm
    PhoenixRED, it’s not so much the words – most people seem inured to most bad language these days.
    It’s just that satire seems to be a dying art form in Australia, especially anything that dares to question the powerful and the wealthy in any substantial way.

    Imagine the Colbert spray on Trump getting aired in Australia if the target was Turnbull.

    *****************************************

    Thanks Adrian – you are right. America has Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, Samantha Bee etc etc laying into Trump & Co on a regular basis, using pretty strong language ……. when anyone in Oz makes a crack about right wing figures or an Asian, Muslim, Waleed …..opens their mouth – people like Bolt, Jones, Joyce, The Australian, Daily Telegraph ……. go ballistic …….

  25. C@t…”so it’s no wonder….”

    Yes. Whichever way it’s diced, the next few years will be tough in UK politics.

    May is incredibly fortunate to have such a feckless opponent as Corbyn.

  26. poroti Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 4:00 pm
    Adrian
    “Imagine the Colbert spray on Trump getting aired in Australia if the target was Turnbull.”

    The next day I would buy a copy of The Telegraph, The Australian and listen to 2GB the whole day. So much spittle and apoplexy to enjoy

    ********************
    Thanks Poroti – we are on the same page ….

  27. c@tmomma @ #621 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 3:57 pm

    The French people missed an opportunity by not endorsing Mélenchon as President.
    Yes, you’d love it if people voted for a guy who could barely bring himself to endorse a Centre Left candidate over a fascist. In fact, he couldn’t even do that much. The best he could come up with was to tell his supporters to not vote for Le Pen. What a slimebag.
    And the vote for the Socialists coming in at 6% told you everything you need to know about what the French people thought of Far Left policies.

    Mélenchon was only a whisker away from the 2nd run off. (1.72% I think). Hardly unpopular.

  28. Dave
    ‘Well the Germans seem to be making noises that they intend to make it as hard as possible for the UK as possible and then still expect them to 50 B Euros or so in ‘contributions up to 2020’ anyway and then nothing special regarding export access – so why pay the EU anything ?’
    The Brexiteers’ premise was that getting out of the EU just HAD to be better for GB. The logic was that this was axiomatic. The reality is that it is based on a huge pack of lies.
    Take just one small example: the City has used Britain’s EU membership to cream global capital flows into, through, and out of the EU.
    This forms the basis for an annual 65 billion quid’s worth of taxes into Britain’s Treasury.
    Most of that will now be internalized in the EU, making the one-off 50B in dispute mere chicken feed. It is less than one year’s worth of City taxes.
    ‘Then you have the likes of Belgium etc almost opening salivating at how hard they intend to make it for the UK ?’
    It does not seem to have occurred to the Brexiteers that not a lot of people on the continent actually like the British all that much. Choosing Boris Johnston, who made a career out of making nasty, sarcastic and often untruthful and bombastic lies about Europe, as Foreign Minister is, let’s say, sublimely contemptuous behaviour by May. That his contribution to the Brexit debate was completely contradictory, also laced with lies and exaggerations, and underpinned with genuine contempt for Europe was icing on the cake.
    ‘So why pay them anything ?’
    Once the terms of Brexit are sorted then the new negotiations start around a partial trade Breturn.
    If the Brits want anything like a set of rational trade negotiations they had better start thinking that beginning from a base of having ratted on their previous commitments to the EU is a very silly approach indeed.Why would a single European trust them anymore than they trust the Syrizans?
    ‘Hopefully calmer heads will prevail all around by I wouldn’t count on it.’
    The calmer heads were asleep at the wheel during the Brexit referendum.
    ‘Putin must love it all.’
    Indeed. But I am sure that the Brexiteers had that front of mind when they went feral with the truth.

  29. Second attempt:

    poroti @ #623 Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 4:00 pm

    The next day I would buy a copy of The Telegraph, The Australian and listen to 2GB the whole day. So much spittle and apoplexy to enjoy

    They’d be joining in. If it was Our Tony or Saint Potatohead however, First Dog’s Outrageomatic would go into meltdown.

    Taking the wizz out of the Fizza is safe territory though.

  30. Until this problem with emojis is fixed, can people please stop adding them to the end of their posts, and replace them with something more generic like (insert whatever emoji here).

  31. C@tmomma

    Re Macron ” a Centre Left candidate” . A bit hard to call someone wanting to cut wages and conditions, cut government services, cut public servants and dish out a tax cut to business “centre left “.

  32. Why buy when you could just get on Facebook and read Turnbull’s verbose rebuttal straight from the horse’s mouth?

    Which reminds me. Has anyone checked twitter for Trump’s inevitable rant?

  33. **Mélenchon was only a whisker away from the 2nd run off.**
    Didnt he refuse to deal with Hamon leading up to the election. That would have him in the runoff. But instead he lost and is trying to extract concessions from Macron to stay relevant.

  34. One of the beauties of Brexit is that Britain will once again have the freedom to provide its beachgoers with the faeces-laded water quality that they enjoyed on many beaches pre-EU and its nasty set of fascist environmental fascist.

  35. Dan Gulberry

    I think you are right. It would be perfect to use a “proof” that Truffles has to go and it being time for the return of an old hand or a new potato.

  36. The ALP always poll better on health and education than the conservatives. It’s their core. Gonski funding was at the heart of their message since Julia’s time. Today’s announcement by Malcolm – standing with Gonski – was described by David Speers this afternoon as a masterstroke.
    He is right. It won’t change long or short term polling on the issue, but it will change the political dynamic. Malcolm will say he does give a Gonski – and the numbers and the images will be on his side.

  37. a r Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 4:12 pm
    Why buy when you could just get on Facebook and read Turnbull’s verbose rebuttal straight from the horse’s mouth?
    Which reminds me. Has anyone checked twitter for Trump’s inevitable rant?

    ********************************************
    Trump seems to be getting a fair bullocking on the Internet for his twisting of history on the Civil War ……. and on the regular newstreams for his ‘support’ of dictatorial thugs like Duterte, Putin etc

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-keeps-praising-international-strongmen-alarming-human-rights-advocates/2017/05/01/6848d018-2e81-11e7-9dec-764dc781686f_story.html?utm_term=.df2b27b54855

  38. I can’t stop thinking about that poor girl who is in prison in Bogota, and who is unlikely to get back home for a long time.

    Cassie Sainsbury’s story appears to be that she decided to go by herself to Colombia for a 9 day “working holiday” – albeit without a working visa (for which she was allegedly not eligible) – and there she met a nice, trustworthy local man who acted as her interpreter and who helped her buy on the black market a box of $20 headphones to bring back to Australia as presents for her wedding guests. It then turned out that the box also contained $1 million or $2 million (reports vary) worth of cocaine which someone was happy to put in there without giving her any detailed instructions as to what she was to do with the drugs when she got back to Australia: which suggests that they must have had an elaborate plan somehow to steal it from her when she got back. (I notice that a family member has put forward the theory that it was a decoy shipment to detract attention from a larger amount of drugs someone else was taking through. Which I guess is conceivable, but you’d have thought that up to $2 million worth of cocaine was rather a lot to use as a decoy.)

    I’m afraid that her family’s version of events will not prove to be a particularly compelling story in the Colombian court, which is more likely to conclude that – whether she knew what was in the parcel or not – her short trip to Colombia was not for a working holiday but was conducted on behalf of someone back in Australia. And it’s conceivable that such a person, if they exist, might be tracked down in due course by Australian law police, which will make Ms Sainsbury’s position even worse.

    But, whatever the true story might be, I feel really sorry for her, as I do for all people arrested for being drug mules. They are by definition incredibly naive people: some because they haven’t asked enough questions about what they have been persuaded to do, and some because they are not sufficiently clever or worldly to grasp the extent of the risks they have taken.

    Australian courts have been gradually becoming more lenient in their sentencing of these people – at least if they are first offenders – and I think this is the way to go, because, in my view, most of them are accessories to crime – sometimes unwittingly – rather than conscious and callous perpetrators.

    And, as a parent , I can’t think of anything worse than knowing that my child – whatever they might have done – was locked up indefinitely in a place like El Buen Pastor prison or Kerobokan. So I truly hope it does turn out that Ms Sainsbury is innocent and was set up, although I don’t fancy her chances on what we’ve heard so far.

  39. Re: Payne’s gifts – looks like a bit of a nothingburger on the strict merits of it. Per the register’s page at aph.gov.au, only 1-2 of the gifts are worth more than….oh, $100 or so – and those by not all that much, either. It’s just one more instance of the Coalition’s frontbench thinking the rules don’t apply to them!

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