Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)

More evidence of a solid swing to Labor in the electorally sensitive state of Queensland, and a decline in One Nation support from its peak earlier in the year.

The Courier-Mail today has federal results from the Queensland poll by Galaxy, for which state results were published on Saturday. It has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, which represents a 4.1% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election, and a one point shift to Labor since the previous such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is at 35% (steady since February, down from 43.2% at the election); Labor at 33% (up four since February, and up from 30.9% at the election); and One Nation at 15% (down three since the last poll; comparisons with the federal election are not meaningful as did not run in a majority of the seats). The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)”

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  1. Wrong link William.
    It goes to the State poll thread.
    Any idea what these numbers mean in terms of seat projections?

  2. We can see the reason why the CM has been cagey with these figures:

    QUEENSLANDERS would purge at least seven Federal Coalition MPs from office – including senior Cabinet minister Peter Dutton – to deliver Bill Shorten a decisive and devastating election win, a shock new poll reveals.

    For the first time since the 2016 election, the Opposition has lifted its primary vote in Queensland by winning back disaffected voters who turned to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Greens.

    A Galaxy poll taken exclusively for The Courier-Mail on April 26 and 27 – just days after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced a crackdown on overseas workers – reveals the Coalition’s primary vote has failed to shift from 35 per cent, the same level as February, and remains significantly down from 43 per cent after last year’s election.

    Mr Turnbull, who will be in Townsville today for a Battle of the Coral Sea memorial, will be hoping Queenslanders need more time to digest his tough immigration reforms and have not stopped listening to his Government.

    Labor’s primary vote has increased to 33 per cent, the highest it has been since the election, when it won just 31 per cent of the vote. Since the election, Mr Shorten has embedded himself in Queensland when Parliament has risen, spending time in marginal, regional seats.

    One Nation’s primary vote has slipped to 15 per cent, from its February highs of 18 per cent, but its vote is still significantly higher than the 5.5 per cent it received at the last election.

    If an election were held today, 2016 preferences pit the Coalition and Labor neck-and-neck at 50 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

  3. From the CM article:

    “The revelations will also likely reinforce internal calls to remove rising star Mr Dutton from the Immigration portfolio and promote him to a less divisive position to ensure he holds his marginal seat of Dickson”

    This is a startling admission from the Murdoch press that their rising star will be gone at the next election. There will now be pressure to ensure the rising star be saved from ignominious oblivion.

    Though the CM has evidently forgotton the rising star was previously a black hole when health minister, so I am not sure which ministry will ensure a continuous rise of star.

  4. If uniform: Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Dickson, Petrie, Dawson, Bonner and (just) Leichhardt. So Dutton and Christensen gone. Small changes in Queensland make a huge difference on BludgerTrack, but this result is well in line with what it was saying already (3.7% swing).

  5. A young girl asked her father if all fairy tales begin with “Once upon a time?”
    “No,” he replied. “A whole lot of them begin with ‘If elected, I promise ….”

    Just read this little bit of humour on another site. Seems apt to put it here.


  6. Dutton is a no-talent thug, bully and inveterate liar who fancies himself the next PM. I think I would prefer Abbott. Or Trump. It would be fantastic to see him unceremoniously booted from the House of Reps.

  7. c@tmomma @ #706 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull was functionally-incapable of winning last year’s election handsomely. He did as well as he ever could. I’m sure he planned to have such a long election campaign because he thought he would wear Bill Shorten down and grind him into the dust. Plus everyone would have all that time to bathe in Malcolm’s brilliance.

    Calling a formal 10 week election campaign was a rash act of extreme hubris and misbegotten belief in the L/NP’s and his own campaigning ability that played into the hands of a well organised progressive campaign and badly underestimated just how well Labor and the progressive forces could enhance their historical prowess in field campaigning with the support of big data.

    Mal pissed away a colossal amount of voter support faster than even the most optimistic among us thought possible (notwithstanding all those paying attention to Mal’s history knew it would eventually happen) and took the L/NP from what should have been a comfortable win to within 556 votes (Capricornia) of minority government.

    Even worse from the L/NP’s point of view, loosing another 4,360 votes would have resulted in a Labor majority government, those votes being:
    Forde 532
    Gilmore 752
    Flynn 908
    Robertson 1,090
    Chisholm 1,078

    Having narrowly dodged a bullet in the 2016 Federal election, the dead weight of Mal helped turn the first state election after the Federal election where Labor was genereally considered to be competitive from a likely narrow loss for the L/NP into a catastrophe so bad that not even the most optimistic forecasts of the Labor party foresaw the magnitude of the win – 41 of 59 seats in the LC, with every single one of the tight contests going Labor’s way.

    But wait, there’s more. Mal leads a badly divided coalition that is suffering financial difficulties, has suffered one defection and the L/NP base is being eroded by a ragtag bunch of grievance based nut jobs with the added indignity that a fair chunk of their preferences are heading Labor’s way.

    Based on current trajectory we can expect a thumping loss for the L/NP at the next federal election, and that’s before we factor in the impact of Your Rights at Work mk2 and whatever campaigns Getup! fire up.

    It’s an exciting time to be alive.

  8. So that’s 5 Liberals and 3 Nationals who won’t be sleeping very well tonight.

    Capricornia – Michelle Landry – Nat
    Forde – Bert van Manen – Lib
    Flynn – Ken O’Dowd – Nat
    Dickson – Peter Dutton – Lib
    Petrie – Luke Howarth – Lib
    Dawson – George Christensen – Nat
    Bonner – Ross Vasta – Lib
    Leichhardt – Warren Entsch – Lib

    The good news for the Liberals is that this result would increase their percentage women in the House from 20% to 21.8%;

    however the Nationals would plunge from 6.7% to 0%.

    n.b. The above percentages assume no change in the other states.

  9. Perhaps the election will be called before polls close in WA (providing it’s held during daylight savings time, so there’s a 3 hour difference).

    It’s looking more like 1983 than 2007.

  10. Dawn Patrollers
    Sadly there will be no patrol this morning as just an hour ago our daughter has lost her baby son at 21.5 weeks of gestation. I don’t know what time I will surface in the morning.
    It’s all very sad as now she will now not be having any more babies.

  11. BK, my deepest sympathy to you and your family, and particularly to your daughter. I have experienced the same kind of events and know well how deeply they reach. I will be thinking of you in the coming days.

  12. BK
    Time to be with family. They are far more important than bludgers. Take care of yourself and your loved ones.

  13. Budget 2017: Universities to be hit with funding cuts, student fees to rise

    Funding for our universities is at record levels, but it has grown above and beyond the costs of their operations.

    Funding of salaries and allowances for politicians and their staff is also at record levels and has grown above and beyond the cost of their operations and with no increase in their productivity.

  14. BK Monday, May 1, 2017 at 1:23 am
    Dawn Patrollers

    Deepest Sympathy BK …

  15. BK
    Please, when the time is right, extend our best wishes to your daughter and her family.
    We wish your daughter and all those who love her, peace and love and the warmth of a loving family.

  16. Good morning bludgers. Sorry, no cartoons.

    “And he’s bringing God back. I praise the Lord for that, I really do.”
    The Friedman Liberty Conference brought together leading libertarians from Australia and overseas for a three-day freedom fest, extolling the virtues of guns, drug legalisation and eliminating taxes.
    The EU is striving to ensure that Britain is worse off outside the trade bloc than inside, not least to avoid setting a precedent.
    Premier Daniel Andrews said Victoria was owed the money from the federal government’s asset-recycling scheme for leasing the Port of Melbourne.
    A proposal to build a rail line to Melbourne Airport through a public-private partnership will receive $10 million in next week’s state budget.
    Many Australian owners who have received recall notices have also reported that local dealerships are out of replacement parts, with some predictions that it will take five years to complete the global recall.
    Actual works and associated assaults on the landscape will extend for years before traffic itself will be “ready to go”.
    A cystic fibrosis “miracle” drug that would normally cost patients $300,000 a year and a breakthrough rare cancer treatment will become affordable under new Turnbull government subsidies.
    First home buyers would be able to withdraw money from superannuation for a deposit on the condition they put it back later

  17. State MPs will be banned from taking their spouses on publicly funded junkets as the Andrews government ramps up its efforts to regain public trust in the wake of the Spring Street rorts scandal.
    The Turnbull government will slash university funding by hundreds of millions of dollars in the May budget while hiking student fees and requiring graduates to pay back their loans faster.
    What is striking in this whole “values” debate in which politicians of all stripes are seeking to clothe themselves in populist coats of many colours is the lack of any discussion about what might be done practically to improve people’s understanding of their rights and responsibilities.
    The competition tsar has warned that current laws are “almost unusable” in preventing misuse of market power by dominant corporations.
    “The issue on the table is North Korea. There is nothing right now facing this country and facing the region that is a bigger threat than what is happening in North Korea.”
    Deloitte Access Economics report shows stagnant wages and lacklustre jobs growth will leave budget $1.7bn worse off than projected five months ago
    The question of the night was: “Is it you?” There was even talk of a sweep being prepared with odds on which journalist was the victim.
    “It’s a very rough system,” he said. “It’s an archaic system … It’s really a bad thing for the country.”
    A “one-stop shop” to receive complaints about banks and financial institutions will be a focal point of next Tuesday’s budget in line with the recommendations of an independent review of external dispute resolution schemes.

  18. A classic ‘political correctness gone mad’ effort in the GG.

    Victorian thought police screening schoolbooks

    Victoria’s politically correct thought police and nanny state mentality know no bounds. The Marxist-inspired LGBTI gender and sexuality program is being forced on all government schools,…………………………. it’s no wonder Victoria is once again being ­described as our Albania of the South — a state where cultural-left ideology and group-think rules, and freedom of thought is under threat.

  19. Brexit: UK Tory politicians are having problems coming to grips with the EU negotiating stance and keep going on about trade. The EU are firm that the rights of citizens and the financial settlement will be first discussed, only after these are agreed will trade be considered.

    European Union leaders have listed demands that British Prime Minister Theresa May must satisfy before they will discuss the trade deal she wants, and urged her to be more realistic in her expectations.

    Any doubts about the scale of the task facing Britain in withdrawing from the EU after four decades were laid to rest at a Brussels summit of the region’s leaders on Saturday. A tough negotiating stance was endorsed unanimously, within minutes and to applause. Britain responded by saying it expects a confrontation.

    The first orders of business for the EU will be guaranteeing the rights of citizens and calculating a financial settlement that one leader said would be at least $US44 billion. Only once “sufficient progress” is made on those topics will the EU’s attention turn to trade. That looks unlikely to happen before December.

  20. lizzie @ #580 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    In ye olden days, like when I was a teenager, there was little difference between English and American in books.
    PS I absolutely refuse to adopt “gotten”.

    I use gotten as often as applicable.

    It is in fact a perfectly legitimate word in English, or was at the time the future US was settled.

    It lost favour in England, but kept going in the US.
    It still survives in English in the phrase ‘Ill-gotten gains’.

    No doubt there are other words similar. One that I know of is ‘fall’ for what we now call autumn, it was used back in the 16th century in England.

  21. lizzie Monday, May 1, 2017 at 6:49 am
    Good morning bludgers. Sorry, no cartoons.

    EXCELLENT JOB, Lizzie !!!!!

  22. Thanks for the summary Lizzie. The plan to cut uni fu ding and raises fees is beneath contempt. Once again, pick on the vilnerable when they fail to make the rich pay their taxes and cannot balance the budget. What cross bencher will vote for that?

    The poll is interesting. With Dutton struggling to hold his seat in Qld, and Abbott remaining certifiably unpopular, the Libs are stuck with Malcolm.

  23. A classic ‘political correctness gone mad’ effort in the GG.

    No surprise here. Writer is Kevin Donnelly!

  24. ‘CTar1
    Monday, May 1, 2017 at 7:12 am
    Brexit: UK Tory politicians are having problems coming to grips with the EU negotiating stance and keep going on about trade. The EU are firm that the rights of citizens and the financial settlement will be first discussed, only after these are agreed will trade be considered.’
    I suspect that they might finally be starting to twig. A bit.

  25. Lizzie

    Kevin Donnelly is the proud owner of that piece. He is ” a Senior Research Fellow at the Australian Catholic University ” .

  26. In my own area (once again) there are stories of dubious project selection and funding decisions. Ten billion is to be ploughed into an outer suburban ring road in an uncongrsted area of NE Melbourne, even though no business case is made public. Meanwhile ten million is being spent on planning a light rail link to Melbourne airport, even though the route is heavily congested. Can you spot the inconsistency? Has a road construction company promised lucrative jobs after politics to every treasurer or transport minister in Australia?

    Have a good day all.

  27. Don

    Yes, I know all the reasons why ‘gotten’ is ‘English’, but I was encouraged never to say ‘got’, either. 🙂

  28. Phylactella

    I would love to see Donnelly and Gerard Henderson having a chat about where they see “marxism infiltrating” these days. It would be comedy gold.

  29. From Daily Kos

    By all accounts, Cosby was spiteful, mean-spirited, quick-tempered, greedy, jealous, dull, and a petty tyrant. Too often many of these traits seemed to turn up among colonial governors who, overall, were quite a bad lot. There is a reason for this, according to one historian, who observed that governors consisted “most often of members of aristocratic families whose personal morals, or whose incompetence, were such that it was impossible to employ then nearer home.”
    Also “devoid of statesmanship, seeking money and preferment.” In other words: not too terribly different from the current occupant of the oval office. And like the current president, the royal governor often found himself at odds with individual jurists within the justice system.

  30. Thanks all for your kind thoughts.
    And thanks (again) to Lizzie for the Dawn Patrol and C@t in advance for the cartoons.

  31. BK, As posted by others, my deepest sympathy to you and your family.
    Your efforts here are greatly appreciated and looked forward too.
    But we will see you back here when you are good and ready. Other kind souls (Our first reserves) who can fill in for you with the morning effort. (And they are appreciated too)

  32. No worries, BK. Just got to take my son to the train station to go to Uni, then I’ll be right on it!

  33. The Australian Tax Office continues to honour a secret deal it struck with crime patriarch George Williams that allowed him to keep a second home while owing more than $570,000 in taxes.

    Rather than recouping the tax debt by forcing the convicted drug dealer to sell the house, the ATO agreed in 2013 to become the mortgagee on the Essendon property.

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