Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)

More evidence of a solid swing to Labor in the electorally sensitive state of Queensland, and a decline in One Nation support from its peak earlier in the year.

The Courier-Mail today has federal results from the Queensland poll by Galaxy, for which state results were published on Saturday. It has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, which represents a 4.1% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election, and a one point shift to Labor since the previous such poll in February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is at 35% (steady since February, down from 43.2% at the election); Labor at 33% (up four since February, and up from 30.9% at the election); and One Nation at 15% (down three since the last poll; comparisons with the federal election are not meaningful as did not run in a majority of the seats). The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland (federal)”

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  4. This article is good fun.

    It was the first Saturday evening of a changed world. A day earlier, Barack and Michelle Obama had flown away from Washington by helicopter, leaving us to our fate. Trump had been sworn in as the 45th president and delivered an inaugural address that was like a mouth full of broken glass. “That was some weird shit,” George W Bush, suddenly regarded with nostalgia, reportedly said afterwards.

    Trump, the reality TV candidate who trampled electoral norms, proceeded to trample presidential norms just as surely. There were the same bogus assertions, impetuous tweets, petty spats, brazen conflicts of interest, bilious attacks on the press (“the enemy of the people”) and a distinct whiff of authoritarianism. There was also a missile strike ordered over the “most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve seen”.

    I have seen God’s gift to satire up close 10 times during the first 100 days – at press conferences, at ceremonies, at a rally (yes, he still doing them four months after the election), hosting an Easter egg roll and taking a tour of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture (looking at a stone auction block used to sell slaves, he apparently said, “Boy, that is just not good. That is not good.”) He does have stage presence: 6ft 2ins tall, an imposing build, that still puzzling hair. Usually he wears a red tie that shouts: look at me. By virtue of being president, seas part to make way for him.

    But when Trump speaks, the English language runs for cover. There is also the dubious thrill of uncertainty, a giddy sense of danger in not quite knowing what the arm-waving man with the nuclear codes might do or say next. As on a rollercoaster, euphoria can very quickly turn to nausea.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/30/donald-trump-100-days-press-briefings-spicer?CMP=soc_568

  6. Can I add my thoughts and sympathies to BK and family in their sadness, exaggerated
    by the cruelty of no more babies.

  8. Sebastian Gorka out of White House after controversies over neo-Nazi connections and phony Ph.D.

    Controversial White House adviser Sebastian Gorka is stepping down from his role in the Trump administration to take an unspecified position in “the war of ideas,” said TheHill.com on Sunday.

    The announcement comes after Gorka’s Ph.D. was revealed to be fraudulently awarded and his connections to a Hungarian neo-Nazi group were exposed the Jewish Daily Forward.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/sebastian-gorka-out-of-white-house-after-controversies-over-neo-nazi-connections-and-phony-ph-d/

  9. Barry R

    I like this para:

    PAULINE HANSON WARNS OF INVASION

    Senator Pauline Hanson has condemned the British escapees from Brexit immigrating to Australia.

    “We are in danger of being swamped by English,” she said. “They have their own culture and religion. They form ghettos. They do not assimilate with the peaceful and productive Asians who swamped us in the 90’s.”

    Ms Hanson refused to eat a British sausage. “We don’t know what’s in it,” she said with absolute accuracy.

  10. lizzie @ #39 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 7:31 am

    Don
    Yes, I know all the reasons why ‘gotten’ is ‘English’, but I was encouraged never to say ‘got’, either.

    Only the vulgar classes use it?

    I guess it’s no surprise to anyone that I put myself in that class. I use whatever words are appropriate.

    I can remember my future and present wife being gobsmacked when we went to a hardware store for some major purchases and I started talking Strine. It got me the tradies discount, but, so she decided that was good business sense.

  13. BK, I am really sorry to hear of your daughter’s loss. My best wishes to you and your family in such a terrible time.

  14. Thanks Lizzie for deputising in BK’s absence.

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    54 mins ·
    First home buyers would be able to withdraw money from super for a deposit on the condition they put it back later, under proposals being considered for next Tuesday’s budget.

    Such shortsightedness. Who is going to police people returning the money to their super?

  15. BK
    I am truly shocked by your news and wish to express my sincere sympathy to your daughter, son-in-law, you, Mrs BK and wider family.
    The impact of such a tragedy on the parents is obvious and widely appreciated.
    Less well appreciated is the impact on grand parents who not only feel their own loss and grief at the loss of a grandchild, but also experience another layer of grief at the suffering of their child.
    Look after yourself and Mrs BK as well as your daughter. My thoughts are with you all.

  19. First home buyers would be able to withdraw money from superannuation for a deposit on the condition they put it back later
    Of course they will promise to put it back later, just as TA promised no cuts to health, education and thee ABC.
    Further, if they put it back a lot later then their super will be way way less than it would have been otherwise.
    Not a good idea in my opinion.

  20. A lot of leftie types (including in the ALP) are reacting to Trump, Brexit and PHON by concluding that our present economic system isn’t working.

    Well, newsflash. Our economic system is a bit like democracy – it hasn’t really ever worked. But it might still be – like democracy – the best we can do.

    And, again like democracy, making it work better by tinkering around the edges might (again) be the best we can do.

    When Adam Smith wrote about capitalism, he wasn’t inventing it. He didn’t lay down a set of unalterable laws. He was simply describing what happens when people sell things to other people.

    So capitalism, at its most basic, is simply what happens when people sell things. It’s an organic growth, if you like, and any human society which buys and sells things will naturally end up capitalistic. (I’m not aware of any human society which ‘evolved’ into communism, for example; in every case, it had to be imposed; most communist countries shift towards capitalism).

    We’ve made democracy ‘work’ by hedging it around with all sorts of rules, regulations and conventions which ‘true’ democracy would not have – and we make capitalism work the same way.

    People are really good at coming up with ideologies which are beautifully logical and workable on paper, but no ‘-ism’ works in the real world without modification, because the real world consists of human beings, who are not and never will be perfect and thus do not and never will behave according to the assumptions of a particular ‘-ism’.

    Clinton – and others – get criticised for not going out and presenting a new economic agenda. But perhaps that’s because they were being truthful – there is no other economic agenda which will work in the real world, and all we can do is fiddle with what’s already there.

  21. If new home buyers are capable of making a firm guarantee that they will be able to put money back into their super fund later, they should be being given a loan for that amount, rather than drawing down on their super.

    If they can provide a firm guarantee that they will be able to repay a certain amount of money within a certain timeframe, and they’re not being loaned that amount of money by the banks, then the problem is with the banking system.

  26. Victoria

    I notice that the Fed Libs thought they would corner State Labor.

    It has been reported that the federal budget on May 9 could contain as much as $1 billion for rail to Melbourne Airport, even though it is not a confirmed state government project.

    Another opportunity for a cage fight over infrastructure. 🙁

  27. Listening to ABC radio this morning until I turned it off when Morrison came on AM for the umpteenth time, I was subjected to ‘respected’ economist Chris Richardson not once, not twice, but three times.
    Once ‘interviewed’ by Robbie Buck, once on the news, and once on AM. All of course with the same basic message. Rising debt is a revenue problem, and the government has done pretty well in curbing spending in light of the senate, but must go further.

    I knew he was a ‘respected’ economist because Sabra Lane told me so.
    In ABC world, respected obviously means uncritically towing the government line, just as ‘rising star’ in Murdochese obviously means complete dickhead.

    Needless to say, I concluded that their ABC is a disgrace when it comes to political reporting and doesn’t even adopt the pretence of impartiality.

  28. My sincere condolences BK to you and all your family, especially your daughter. The loss of a child, born or unborn, is such a tragic event.

    And thanks to Lizzie and C@t for stepping into the breach at short notice and providing the dawn patrol.

  29. Lizzie

    State Labor announced a billion dollars worth of infrastructure of rail for the regions, to be funded from the assets recycling funds the Feds have to pay them. Liberal luvvie was on Msm yesterday saying wtte that state labor can’t count on this money being used in this way.
    The feds are just as per usual playing politcal games. They want The Andrews govt to be damaged in any way possible. How else do you explain the CFA interference by Turnbull. They disgust me

  30. BK
    So very sorry to hear of the sad loss of your grand child. If appropriate, condolences to your daughter and family.

  32. May Day.

    With all its implications depending on who and where.

    Or in the case of Third Rock From The Sun – M’aidez –> ‘May Day!’ ‘May Day!’

  33. Adrian @ #77
    There are so many other economists they could go to for a more varied take on our current situation: Bill Mitchell, John Quiggin and others.
    But they never do.

  34. No doubt it’s much the same in Australia.

    “Sell by.” “Use by.” “Best by.” These terms and their many variations have probably caused you to toss perfectly good food just because the date on the label has passed. Nearly 85 percent of consumers have thrown out food based on these designations, contributing to a widespread food waste problem in the United States. A recent report from ReFED, a coalition of businesses, NGOs and other organizations fighting food waste, calculated that date labels alone cost American consumers almost $30 billion annually.

    Not only is this rampant food waste appalling in a nation where 42.2 million people live in food-insecure households, the USDA notes that food waste has far-reaching impacts on resource conservation and climate change.

    Food waste is the largest component of U.S. municipal solid waste. As uneaten food rots in landfills, it releases the potent greenhouse gas, methane, which is a cause of global warming. That’s not to mention the sheer amount of labor and precious resources such as water, land and fuel that goes towards cultivating, packaging, transporting and processing food that’s ultimately never consumed.

    http://www.alternet.org/environment/how-supermarket-sales-gimmick-has-become-major-driver-climate-chnge

  35. BK
    Very sorry to hear your of your daughter’s misfortune.
    My thoughts are with her and your family.

  36. booleanbach @ #83 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 9:57 am

    Adrian @ #77
    There are so many other economists they could go to for a more varied take on our current situation: Bill Mitchell, John Quiggin and others.
    But they never do.

    Well I have heard both Bill Mitchell and John Quiggin interviewed on ABC radio on many occasions, mainly in relation to their specialities. I have also seen both appear on ABC TV. Neither are media tarts like some others.

  37. Adrian

    I have heard Chris Richardson a few times recently and as I had previously decided to be ‘against’ him, have been surprised to find that he seems to vary his information according to the program (or perhaps the interviewer). Recently he has certainly not been completely supportive of the Libs.

  38. All Morrison can talk about is getting spending “under control”. No mention whatsoever about revenue!
    Plonker!

  39. Treasurer Scott Morrison says governments can build infrastructure projects more cheaply and effectively than the private sector, justifying the “good debt” focus of his second budget that next week will foreshadow a turning point to “better times” for Australian households.

    Hang about. Isn’t that a complete reversal of the private investment policy that the LNP has supported for years?
    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/government-can-build-better-cheaper-infrastructure-than-private-sector-morrison-20170429-gvvkdo#ixzz4fmW7VWOi
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  41. Lizzie
    He was pretty supportive today, but it was more his ubiquitousness (if that’s a word) that got me, on a news organisation that should be providing for a diversity of views.

    Couldn’t have one of the economists mentioned by booleanbach on, that might actually be critical of the government.

  43. Hang about. Isn’t that a complete reversal of the private investment policy that the LNP has supported for years?

    Along the lines of, ‘Government( i.e. if it’s Labor), should get out of the way and let the experts in Private Industry get on with the job!’

    Or, ‘That is not core government business!’

    Flaming hypocrite.

  44. With various comments against Brexit. I wonder if Australians had entered into a similar arrangement with one or more of our neighbors and after some years it was by referendum found it was not in our best interest. Would the same position be taken.

  45. bk @ #88 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 10:15 am

    All Morrison can talk about is getting spending “under control”. No mention whatsoever about revenue!
    Plonker!

    It’s obvious the Liberal text book on economics has the expenditure section before the revenue one.

    It’s a shame that, unlike Brandis (not that it’s done him much good), both Hockey and Morrison are obviously not prolific readers and never got that far. 🙂

  46. “All Morrison can talk about is getting spending “under control”. No mention whatsoever about revenue!
    Plonker!”

    That was Richardson’s basic line. Anyone would think it’s co-ordinated. ;).

  47. lizzie @ #89 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Treasurer Scott Morrison says governments can build infrastructure projects more cheaply and effectively than the private sector, justifying the “good debt” focus of his second budget that next week will foreshadow a turning point to “better times” for Australian households.

    Hang about. Isn’t that a complete reversal of the private investment policy that the LNP has supported for years?
    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/government-can-build-better-cheaper-infrastructure-than-private-sector-morrison-20170429-gvvkdo#ixzz4fmW7VWOi
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    This is sounding a bit like an argument for Big Government. 😮

  48. whisper @ #94 Monday, May 1, 2017 at 10:23 am

    With various comments against Brexit. I wonder if Australians had entered into a similar arrangement with one or more of our neighbors and after some years it was by referendum found it was not in our best interest. Would the same position be taken.

    Ask WA. 🙂

  49. Adrian

    a news organisation that should be providing for a diversity of views.

    Maybe the ABC has to find the cheapest ‘experts’, or the ones who don’t expect payment, such as the IPA, or pollies looking for publicity.

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