The latest Essential Research poll, conducted for The Guardian Australia, has two-party preferred steady at 53-47, with both major parties up a point each, to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 37% in Labor’s, and the two biggest minor parties down one, leaving the Greens at 9% and One Nation at 7%. Other findings:
• Compulsory voting has the support of 66% of respondents, which is down five points since the question was last asked in October 2013, with 27% opposed, up two. Eighty per cent say they would have been likely to vote if it were not compulsory, versus 12% for unlikely.
• Economic sentiment has improved since December, with 30% now describing the state of the economy as good (up seven) and 29% as poor (down seven), and 29% thinking it headed in the right direction (up three) against 41% for the wrong direction (down four).
• A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.
• Contrary to expectations earlier in his career, respondents are confident that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver on “tougher citizenship requirements”, “tighter regulations for foreign workers” and “secure borders”, but not a strong economy, jobs and growth, a balanced budget and, most of all “action on climate change”.
In other polling news, there will shortly be a new entrant into the market in the shape of British market behemoth YouGov:
A new nationally representative political poll launches and goes into the field for the first time this week — a partnership between leading international research and polling firm YouGov and Australian engagement and communications agency Fifty Acres.
YouGov is an international online market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Australia …
The poll will be a fortnightly online survey conducted amongst 1,000 Australians aged 18+. The poll sample is nationally representative with quotas based on age, gender and region.
If the WA state government is changing the economics of renewable energy then the problem with this is… what?
trog sorrenson @ #1386 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 1:31 pm
The issue you need to focus on for the start of any project is final investment decision (FID). Talk is cheap, getting investors and financiers to commit is not.
There is a very good reason there are no coal or gas plants in Australia that are anywhere near FID, the people with money to invest and loan all know that the assets will end up stranded and they won’t make their desired return. Only the wilfully blind can not see that the market has already spoken.
chinda63 @ #1646 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 9:49 pm
You had me worried, I thought maybe the town had floated away during the last floods.
I had to double check on a couple maps. 🙂
player one @ #1405 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:11 pm
I work for a company that does maintenance work on coal power plants. It will take a hell of a lot of sticky tape and good luck to have any currently operational coal power plant in Australia still going in 2050, even assuming that some form of carbon pricing, EIS or the continued drop in solar & wind capital costs doesn’t kill them off long before that.
This is true only because you say so, P1. You’ve gone so far down this path you don’t even remember when people took you to task over your most basic claims of fact and were rude and snarky in the process.
Lets repeat for the sake of the still sane. P1 claims that gas is somehow cheaper than renewables plus storage. This is the core error that underlies all of P1s “arguments”.
P1 has not put forward an argument for this apart from P1s wishful thinking that gas prices will fall. P1 denies that solar and batteries are continuing to get cheaper. P1 ignores issues with the economics/investability of gas. Such as the problem of building major gas fired stations that will become stranded assets. Such as the problem of having large slabs of capital being utilised only for short periods. Within the next few years, gas will be uninvestable. When these sorts of issues crop up in the debate, P1 just gets nasty.
jimmydoyle @ #1651 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:17 pm
Don’t mistake me – I have absolutely no problems with directing new plants to be renewables, and in a small state like WA which currently have an oversupply of electricity due to reduced demand, this may be sound policy.
I am merely pointing out that without such direction (or heavy subsidies) it would not yet happen of its own accord, nor would it be feasible in the larger states , or in states like SA which have a need for new power to meet demand … which is what some here maintain.
Grimace has demonstrated the conditions under which it is feasible … and these conditions do not generally prevail in the other states.
After 40 years Labour has lost control of Glasgow City Council. The SNP will be the largest party and hopefully with Green support it can form Government.
cud chewer @ #1655 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:29 pm
You are the master of “nasty”, CC. Which is why I don’t generally bother to respond to your tripe.
The Tories have destroyed UKIP by becoming UKIP.
Notice how P1 has nothing to say to this.. But P1 is always saying how gas would be economic if only they’d have cheaper gas.
cud chewer @ #1660 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:33 pm
What part of “WA has an oversupply of electricity” did you fail to understand?
player one @ #1650 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:12 pm
No my post debunked the rubbish you posted, and now you are trying to move the goal posts:
“Even when your state economy is tanking…” – demonstrably untrue
:…the government had to direct its own state-owned supplier to close its own fossil-fueled power plants…” – untrue based on your post – the plants are old and are being closed down
“New power stations will replace them…” – they are, WA is not far off 800MW of installed PV (small + large scale) & has more planned, has a number of wind farms running & has more planned and the state government have committed support for a large-scale wave energy project.
“…and the state government has decided to force these to be renewables, since otherwise the pure economics of the situation would dictate otherwise.” – demonstrably untrue. Apart from government backed fossil fuel plants, how many private sector plants anywhere near receiving final investment decision? OTOH how many renewable projects are near FID or currently under construction?
Again, P1, all you do is continue to restate something that is factually incorrect, without ever using evidence or forming a good argument.
vogon poet @ #1409 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:18 pm
Molten salt is one of the chemicals that can be used in a solar thermal plant.
Swamprat
Ah, used the John Howard strategy re ‘One Notion’ MkI. Not surprising as they use the Aussie piece of puss Lynton Crosby.
grimace @ #1662 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:36 pm
https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates – April 2017 report:
Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?
Poroti
I should have acknowledged that i was quoting Alex Salmond 🙂
Yes Sir Lynton is in charge again.
This is typical of the kind of intellectual dishonest you employ P1. Its irrelevant and it means you fail to face up to your fundamental error in fact. Your belief that renewables with storage are too expensive and will continue to be so for decades.
I tired politely and calmly to prod you into questioning your own assumptions long ago. But your rude and arrogant responses are what prompted the end of my patience with you. If you cannot even ask yourself “hey, wait a moment here.. what if I’ve got my most basic figures wrong” What if they’re out of date? What would be true then?” If you just don’t have that level of introspection and self doubt then you deserve the term “idiot”. An idiot is someone incapable of self-correction.
cud chewer @ #1663 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:38 pm
I have tried posting evidence. You people seem to have been vaccinated against it. So why bother boring the pants off everyone else here all over again? The evidence is not hard to find if anyone wants to look for it.
Condescending, arrogant and rude. Typical of a lot of your posts P1.
cud chewer @ #1668 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:43 pm
And I have tried to respond, but all you have done is remind me why I stopped responding to you in the first place. I’ll try not to forget again.
Poroti
i note that Plaid Cymru has had an increase of 11 in Councillors, so far!!
Scottish counting is a bit more leisurely…..so far SNP only +5 .. but more to come.
cud chewer @ #1670 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:45 pm
You complain when I provide evidence to back up my assertions, and you complain when I don’t.
I can see I can’t win.
Try me. When I first saw you posting “evidence” it was selectively culled figures from dated reports. This is the thing I don’t get P1. You seem to have no self doubt. No sense of “hey hang on a bit, what if the world has changed since then?”. You see the very first thing I did with you (while on holiday, on a mobile and unable to type much) was to politely suggest your data is out of date. And your response? Scholarly? Cautious? No. You were rude to me straight out.
cud chewer @ #1674 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:49 pm
Just how up to date do you need? The last few reports which I have quoted from are all from within the last few months. Some within the last few weeks, and a few within the last few days.
I’m over this. You are simply ridiculous.
What I’ve complained about is the lack of caution to your approach. The fact that you don’t seem to realise or care that the basic numbers are changing every month. You seem to think “what is, proves what will always be”. And the way you deal with other people’s posts when they point out that yes indeed, renewables are getting cheaper, yes indeed batteries are getting cheaper is quite breathtaking. Intellectually dishonest sleight of hand where you never deny that these things are getting cheaper, but you still rush to the conclusion that this is irrelevant in the time frame that matters (next 15 years). Its not just poor evidence, Its also the lack of coherent, rational, argument. Of course gas is cheaper. Because you want to believe it? And not look at the trends? And not look at real world investment decisions where people who risk hundreds of millions really don’t want to invest in something that won’t be worth much in 10 years time?
One notices the Manchester Guardian has electoral maps only for four parties: Con, Lab, LibDem and UKIP. The third largest party in Westminster, the SNP, is not mapped. 🙂
I’d be happy for you to accept the trend. I’m seeing utility scale solar trending well under $2/W for the entire plant and possibly getting close to $1/W in the near future. I’m seeing batteries trending to below $200/KWhr in the near future. These are entirely investable numbers. What they may ultimately trend towards, the end game is pretty clear. And again and again people refer you to the investability of gas, but you refuse to engage them and it shits me off seeing you do this day in day out. Frankly the cricket coverage is looking good and I hate cricket.
And a thorium reactor. Slightly different salts, mind you.
cud chewer @ #1670 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:45 pm
This is hilarious. P1 is going to have a STFU list including half of PB the way it is going.
I feel a sense of vindication as the first to go on its list after calling it out as a troll and a nasty one at that.
LU,
What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.
cud chewer @ #1681 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:10 pm
One for both of you, is Enviro Mission’s solar updraft tower proposal going anywhere?
Another 24/7 alternative that looked good to me.
player one @ #1666 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:41 pm
I can imagine you don’t want to bother with my post, its a line by line debunking of your post, and done in a way you can’t cry “I’m being abused!!!!”.
Given the track record of Commsec I’d be very hesitant to take anything at all they said on face value, which is why I quoted WA Treasury.
You’ve gone and posted easily debunked rubbish, backed it up by trying to move the goal posts and now you are trying to use an entity with a track record of fraud and dishonesty who operates within a market segment notorious for doing opinions for hire, and somehow you think that discredits second round of debunking that I did of your post.
So yes P1, please address my post.
“Everything’s different after today, folks. Scotland’s choice will never have been more stark: extreme Tories in the UK for years and years to come, or self-governance. Let the chips fall where the people choose.”
https://wingsoverscotland.com/you-can-actually-try-changing-it/
player one @ #1661 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:35 pm
The issue of apparent oversupply of electricity in WA is complicated and you should probably avail yourself of the operation of the WA capacity market before you discredit yourself again by involving yourself in matters outside of your area of expertise or general knowledge.
The amount of coal and gas-fired generation capacity decommissioned by Synergy is roughly equal to the installed capacity of rooftop PV on the SWIS.
The solar updraft tower seems to have been a victim of increasingly cheaper PV. I would have loved to have seen one built if only for the chance to see the view from the top 🙂
Nicholas:
“Austerity is a very great evil, and centrists do far more damage to societies than far-right fringe parties.”
Demonstrably untrue. A casual flick through a history book will tell you that civic society goes out the window when the far-right get into power. I’m not downplaying the damage of “austerity now, austerity forever!” types, but let’s be honest here.
I think the other thing that Nicholas misses is the makeup of the French Parliament will mitigate the outcome.
Much extra value is in the storage, ramping and and synchronous services it can deliver. More so when most of the rest is power-electronics coupled and variable. Steam turbines are basically commodity produced, so the unknown costs are all in the collector and heat storage and transfer parts. Mass production of mirrors will be considerably cheaper than PV, and the towers should last a lot longer.
On the downside, it relies on infrared radiation, not UV, so is much more susceptible to long periods of cloud cover. Gas backup can overcome this.
Short story – it will almost surely be in the mix. We’ll have one or two here by 2025.
Nup, not on my radar.
But it does look great!
Night all!
Just in case you still think the Libs wanting to destroy medicare was a scare campaign, this should remove any doubt. Apparently our Prime Minister thinks it’s great that Trump took healthcare coverage off 24 million Americans so he could give a tax cut to the top 2 percent of income earners.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/05/05/11/14/malcolm-turnbull-praises-donald-trump-on-successful-vote-to-repeal-obamacare
Labor should have a sign of every street corner next election simply saying:
Turnball on Trumpcare:
“It’s great!”
New thread.
CC:
Solar thermal with salt batteries has been bothering me too. Why is it not taking off? It would seem that the numbers don’t stack up, for whatever reason.
There was one proposed for Port Augusta:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-04/solar-thermal-power-station-solastor-plan-port-augusta/7476968
but I have not heard that it was anywhere near FID, or even completely designed and costed.
And also the turbines fed by hot air in the middle of a plain somewhere (MIA ?), with a humungous tower. I remember seeing the concept drawings some time ago. Nothing since.
But solar PV seems to keep setting new records for low price and investor uptake.
Wind turbines seem to have a niche market, and may become more important when the costs for daytime electricity come down significantly with five minute pricing and with the peaks being flattened by solar PV, and night time electricity needs being supplied by wind turbines – but around here (northern NSW), the wind usually dies at night anyhow. For that purpose the turbines would need to be somewhere like the south coast of SA where you get sea winds a lot of the time.
Scrolling through the overnights posts. It can best be said of P1 is that s/he is a commercial gas producer
cud chewer @ #1686 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:44 pm
Sorry, went to bed before you responded.
But PV can’t provide power 24/7. Solar updraft really captured my imagination when I first read about it.
simon aussie katich @ #1456 #1456 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:41 pm
My friend says ‘Isn’t that what we were aiming for?’
lizzie @ #1459 #1459 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:46 pm
Indeed. It is not rocket science. Many people know how many beers/wines/scotches to have to tread the fine line between feeling good and feeling rotten. Some do not, of course.
As Henry Lawson said, ‘Beer makes you feel the way you should feel without beer’.