BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 11
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  1. This was written in February, but still relevant, if the Welfare Card is mentioned in the Budget. How do the LNP constantly get away with this stuff?

    The Liberal National Party (‘LNP’) Welfare Card programme is really a LNP rort for the benefit of the Liberal and National Parties and their members, donors and supporters. Indue Pty Ltd, the corporation awarded the contract to manage the Welfare Card programme and to operate its underlying systems, is a corporation owned by Liberal and National Party members and that donates to various Liberal and National Party branches around Australia.

    The Liberals have shown a propensity to manipulate electoral donation laws as their recent dealings with the various electoral commissions in ‘the Arthur Sinodinos Affair’ and Joe Hockey’s ‘North Sydney Forum Affair’ indicate. Likewise, previous Liberal scandals involving the use of tax payers money to attract donations to the party and its candidates include Turnbull’s $10 million tax payer funded grant in the Rainmaker deal to a supporter who donated to Turnbull’s personal Wentworth Forum and John Howard’s and Julie Bishop’s involvement with the Austrade grant for donations deal in the Firepower affair. More recently we have seen the Liberals embroiled in electoral allowance scams which evinces a flagrant disregard for proper management of, and accountability for, public financial resources under their stewardship. Moreover, it is common knowledge that the Liberals also need to repay their current parliamentary leader, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, the $1.8 million he loaned to them for the 2016 election campaign – not to mention other loan amounts he has advanced to them in the past. The Liberal Party is reported to be in debt to the tune of approximately $39 million.

    4.The contract for the issuing and management of the card was awarded before the trials for the card programme’s operation were completed and before the merits and outcomes of the card programme were assessed.

    https://theaimn.com/lnp-welfare-card-true-facts-exposed-corruption-disguised-philanthropy/

  2. Sky News Australia
    4 mins ·
    North Korea says it is ready to sink a US aircraft carrier to demonstrate its military might.

    This is getting out of control.

  3. I wonder what the Chinese are going to do about North Korea. Can’t see them wanting a hot war on one of their borders.
    Besides, the US would just smash NK to smithereens.

  4. My pick for news poll is for the government to pick up one point on primaries from the minor (read right) parties, but the 2pp unchanged.

  5. fess
    The NK’s last missile launch blew up on take off. Also as I said above, I can’t see the Chinese allowing a hot war on their doorstep.

  6. ML
    The NK hostage is Seoul.
    There is virtually nothing the US can do to stop the NK from detonating a nuke in one of the tunnels they have under the DMZ.
    Something like a quarter to a third of Seoul would suffer an immediate and monstrous artillery barrage, come what may.
    Regardless of the damage, the SK economy can be expected to suffer an immediate and disastrous reduction.
    The flow on impact on world (and Australian) trade are large.
    Not that Trump cares.
    If he even knows.
    Turnbull is an utter and culpable idiot for encouraging Pence to come and rattle nuclear sabres in Australia.

  7. Zoomster
    Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    Depends which historians you read. The Russians and Americans were really shirty about England, because Churchill was far more focussed on keeping the Empire than he was on defeating Hitler. Some believe D-Day – and the end of the war – was delayed by at least a year because Churchill was quite happy for the Russians to keep fighting – and dying.

    It does depend, doesn’t it.

    I have no truck for Churchill. And I guess you, like BW, have skin in the game.

    Say what you like, but whatever won the war, it was an Allied effort, not the pick and choose, among those allies, that you and BW like to present.

    Everyone suffered, on all sides. And I prefer to blame the aggressors, not those who took up arms against it, however miniscule their role.

  8. Good evening all,

    Mark Kenny and the rest of the MSM need to take a deep breath and tone down the rhetoric. Alas, they will not and will continue to pump out bullshit.

    Cheers.

  9. The nationalistic rhetoric pumped out by Turnbull this past week and the visit by Pence are not mutually exclusive coincidences.

    Cheers.

  10. We were concerned that with Tony in charge, we might ‘accidentally’ be drawn into a war. Turnbull is proving that his hands are no more safe than Tony’s. 🙁

  11. kezza

    Well, my father fought for the wrong side, so I think that means I can be fairly objective about the other!

    (Although, it must be noted, my great uncle was a ventriloquist in the Australian Air Force, something which not everyone can claim…)

  12. Boerwar
    I realise that Seoul is hostage and vast damage could be done there militarily and in trade flow on.
    I guess my question is about what China can and will do, as I’m sure they won’t do something in this situation. WWII and all that, plus Seoul is not that far from their border as well.
    Trumble poncing with Pence is just about what I’ve come to expect from him.

  13. socrates @ #248 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 4:02 pm

    Bemused
    “Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:09 am
    Hey Socrates, did you see what I posted Friday night about Box Hill in Melbourne?
    Buildings up to 30 storeys planned.”
    Sorry I went out just after you posted this and only read the article now. Sadly that is the sort of thing I was warning about – intense high rise plonked into the middle of a low rise area. This smacks of a developer dominated process. You do not need 30 stories to make offices or public transport viable. Large areas of central London, Paris and Berlin, with superb amenity and services, are around six stories, no more. Anyone in a house downsun of a 30 story tower will feel like they are living in a cave.

    Thanks Socrates. They do seem to be confining the taller buildings to a central area with progressively lower limits as you move out from the centre.
    It is a reasonably good transport hub at present but needs to be improved to keep pace with population growth, not just in Box Hill, but further out.

  14. Monica,

    I agree re China but I also think the forgotten player in the area is Russia. Putin would not be comfortable with the developments occurring atm.

    Cheers.

  15. Monica L:

    What Boerwar said, but also the way this has escalated to the point it has now is because of the dangerous, careless rhetoric being deployed by Trump and now our govt. We already know that Republicans are stupidly wedded to the illogical idea that escalation rhetoric without active intent leads to de-escalation of intent among our enemies when nothing is further from the truth. I can’t see this North Korea folly by the US and now Aust ending any way other than in tragedy.

  16. ML
    Trump seemed to be talking as if there was an agreement between Trump and Xi following their meetings. China would sit on NK and Trump would no longer call global warming a ‘chinese hoax’, would no longer call the chinese ‘currency manipulators’ and would no longer wage a trade war against China.
    But, also since the Xi/Trump meetings, Pence has been poncing around SEA lining up the ducks for a possible nuclear war against NK.
    Whether this is consistent with the apparent agreement between Xi and Trump is anyone’s guess.
    Whether anyone has any sort of immediate control at all over KIY is moot, IMO.
    BTW, NK has a huge history of posturing and threatening without them coming to anything much at all.
    The problem is that no-one quite knows whether this bellicose theatre of the insane will run off the rails.
    The odds of an accidental error going hugely wrong must now be very large indeed.

  17. Lizzie:

    To be fair to Turnbull, Abbott had an adult contemporary in the White House during his tenure as PM, whereas Turnbull does not.

  18. zoomster
    I don’t think that your experience can be determined as “fairly objective”, despite the fact you have decided your father was on the ‘wrong’ side. Sounds like you’re lucky to be here.

    And I’ll challenge anyone to beat my great uncle, known to all and sundry as Strawb, the Tussock Jumper, as an asset to Australia’s WWI effort.

  19. doyley @ #310 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    Good evening all,
    Mark Kenny and the rest of the MSM need to take a deep breath and tone down the rhetoric. Alas, they will not and will continue to pump out bullshit.

    Kenny’s simplistic view that china is not trying hard enough so the US may have no choice but for preemptive military action is lazy analysis. Rather scary that he’s putting out such a view without much qualification.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/north-korean-threats-will-leave-alliance-countries-little-choice-20170423-gvqpxh.html

  20. I didn’t know the Chevron case which the ATO won last week was based upon law which Labor brought in and which the Coalition fought against at the time. Wayne Swan explains it here:

  21. grimace @ #253 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    confessions @ #241 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    The ban on official Long Tan commemorative memorials extended to include Anzac Day this year.
    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/asiapacific/2017/04/23/vietnam-anzac-memorial-ban-remains.html

    This is an issue that really annoys me. It is the height of Australian arrogance to think that we can dictate terms to the Vietnamese on how we will commemorate ANZAC day in THEIR country. They have every tight to dictate terms as they see fit for ANZAC commemorations in their country.
    Australia and its allies (“we”) started the Vietnam war on the basis of a lie, we trashed the country and we cut and run after we got our arses kicked leaving our supposed allies in the south to their fate with the north, and left an impoverished country to deal with the impact of being trashed by some of the richest countries in the world.
    The Vietnamese don’t have to get over it, they don’t have to forgive or forget and they certainly do not have to entertain the boorish behaviour of Australian’s who are visitors in their country towards the commemorations for a war we started in their country.
    What exactly would Australia’s attitude be if the Japanese wanted to hold a commemoration in Darwin over the bombing of that city? And if the visiting Japanese were allowed to hold their own commemoration and then behaved the way some Australians do when visiting war sites overseas then we’d be hearing the howls of outrage for years afterwards.

    Well said Grimace!
    I have made similar comments before although not as eloquently.

  22. Monica,

    Putin and Russia are getting pressured on numerous fronts. Ukraine and the push by NATO to expand its presence on Russia’s borders are a huge issue. Having a major push by the USA into possible major conflict on his eastern border is not something Putin would be sitting back and relaxing about. Putin is the dark dark horse in all this and his interactions with China on the matter would be very very interesting.

    Cheers and a good night to all

  23. kezza

    Why ‘lucky”? Dad didn’t choose where he was born, and he didn’t get much choice in who he fought for. He, like other Balts, were seen as THE most desirable immigrants available after the war. (It’s everyone afterwards who are lucky to be here, they wouldn’t have been if there’d been enough Balts…)

    In a multicultural society, we’re all ‘lucky’ – and we’re all (equally) Australian.

    Poops me off no end when I have to justify my existence here by pointing to five generations on the other side, as if that somehow gives me more legitimacy.

  24. Boerwar and fess
    I’ll admit I’m worried about Korea and the potential for catastrophe. Perhaps I’m vainly clutching at straws that major powers such as China and Russia would do everything they could to avert such an outcome, though an accidental trigger can never be ignored.
    I remember the Cuban crisis only too well and this time we’ve got total morons in the NK and US in charge. I keep recalling Trump asking 3 times, why if we’ve got nukes, why don’t we use them, at a briefing.

  25. Whilst Dutton as PM sounds far fetched to anyone who isn’t a flat earther recent experience would tend to warn against writing it off.

    So pleeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaseeeeee Liberal Party room, make it so.

    We know Liberal voters will hold their nose and vote for any old raving lunatic with a blue tie, but PDuddy might just be too far for a more than significant number to stomach. I reckon the leadership change bounce alone would be worth 4 points to Shorten.

    To see Trumbles humiliated by being replaced by a tuber would be delicious. To see the carnage that would follow would be pure bliss. Fingers and toes crossed.

  26. Zoomster

    Why lucky? Because, according to you, your father fought for the “other side”; meaning the enemy.

    And that’s why I said it sounds like “you” are lucky to be here.

    It might “poop you off” but you’re the one who keeps mentioning you roots.

  27. Monica L:

    I’m incredibly worried about recent developments simply because Trump is such a wild card who cannot be relied upon to embody rational, calm thought. Add Kim Jung Un into the mix and it’s anything goes.

    I thought George W was reckless and irresponsible but Trump is in a category all his own.

  28. If US Replicans can vote for Trump and Liberals over here can fawn on him, “Liberals” will have no problems voting for Dutton. I find his personna repulsive and not just a little diturbing, but he will be attractive to the “Liberal” base and to those who would consider voting One Nation. Meanwhile the “Pharasee” branch of Christianity, the IPA/Business types and the “Howard Tradies” won’t have a problem with him. Most of the few remaining liberal “Liberals” will put a peg on their nose and vote for him. After all, they voted for Abbott.

  29. Just on ANZAC and war reflections, the propensity to glorify is sad and misguided.

    One grandfather was gassed on the Eastern Front in 1917 at 18 and managed to live another 42 years though with failing lungs. His brother aged 20 was not so lucky. Chemical weapons were evil then and now.

    Both my parents were civilians interned by the Japanese and witnessed cruelty which would make ISIS blush, like beheadings for failing to bow to Japanese soldiers.

    So the defence of Australia (despite Churchill and the poms best efforts in 2 wars) is to be immensely thankful for. We would not be here without it. But not to be glorified, and if at all possible, not to be repeated.

  30. Zoomster

    Some believe D-Day – and the end of the war – was delayed by at least a year because Churchill was quite happy for the Russians to keep fighting – and dying.

    ‘Some might’, but others will think that D-Day was delayed because the Americans, despite the ‘Europe First’ policy, used more of their resources and effort in the Pacific, rather than Europe, until mid-1943.

  31. kezza2 @ #269 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 5:01 pm

    Grimace @ 4.48pm
    I did a reply, lost, never to return.
    I know it was your point. I wasn’t contesting that.
    Still, BW has an enormous chip on his shoulder about the Allies (read, Australia & England), and he doesn’t want to give England, nor Australia, any kudos for their effort in WWII, because his Dutch family suffered, in Singapore.
    Yet, he found shelter here. And still he can’t forgive. Nor our fauna

    As I said earlier today…

    bemused @ #97 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:58 am

    I see the renowned Anglophobe, Borewar, is in full moral sanctimony mode seeking to demean and diminish anything British.

  32. How tall is Peter Dutton? Looks about 6’4

    Pretty formidable. And a cop, to boot. You don’t often query a bloke like that. He’ll sit you on your arse quicker than a wink.

    He seems to me to be a cop of the “take all prisoners” type. And, one who has accrued a massive property portfolio from petty earnings, of the afraid kind.

    I think Malcolm Turnbull is afraid of him.

  33. Some believe D-Day – and the end of the war – was delayed by at least a year because Churchill was quite happy for the Russians to keep fighting – and dying.

    The other side to this is that Stalin and his Generals used Soviet troops in such a way that it maximised causalities. This wasn’t just the way the troops were very poorly equipped, feed and armed but the virtually suicidal way they were deployed.

    Stalin played his Generals off against each other, increasing the aggressiveness with which the Generals used troops.

    But one order from Stalin caused massively more Soviet deaths then anything else – the “Not One Step Backwards” directive – which was backed up by political troops who shot anyone who hesitated/ failed to press home attacks etc.

    Hence the saying – there was only one thing more dangerous then being part of Soviet attack – failing to attack with the speed and vigour dictated by Stalin.

    Same with Soviets taken prisoners of war who were stripped of citizenship and shipped to Gulags if they survived the war. One to cop this treatment was Stalins son.

    A common theme of Stalin at the various “Big Three” Conferences during the war was his demand that those who shed the most blood would get the most ‘spoils’ after the war – even though his actions massively increased the deaths of his own troops.

    His intention right from the start was to never withdraw from countries captured from Germany. His intention was that the Germans would be slave labour, stripped of industry and reduced to an agrarian society.

    The Soviet people bore a huge burden in winning WW2 but Stalin’s actions increased that burden massively.

    Stalin also killed as many Soviet citizens (some estimates say even more than) as died in WW2 by his successive purges from the 1920’s.

    There are estimates that between Stalin and Mao they killed about 100 million of their own people, combined.

    In Stalins final days he wrote wtte, “I am finished (health wise) and cannot even trust myself”.

    He got that right!

  34. Sprocket:

    Thanks for sharing your family history. I personally do not get involved with Anzac commemorations but don’t oppose those who do.

  35. CTaR1
    Yep. You get the sense that the early successes of the Japanese caught the US off balance enough for them to push more stuff into the Pacific than they had planned originally.
    Apart from that, the Pacific was ‘their’ war in a sense that the European war was not.

  36. fess,
    Well, when a huge number of US mental health clinicians have declared Trump mentally unstable, you can add my voice to that.
    Malevolent narcissistic personality disorder.
    Ghastly creatures.
    A bit like vampires.

  37. Kezza:

    There was a cartoon from back in the Abbott era when his govt was going hell for leather against Gillian Triggs. Showed Abbott, Brandis and others in a vehicle, with a laid out Triggs knocked out on the ground behind the car, and Dutton, sleeves rolled up having laid her out, stalking back to the vehicle.

    That cartoon for me perfectly embodied everything the Abbott Liberals embraced: thuggery, misogyny, sexism, anti-liberalism and anti free speech. It has stuck with me since the day I first saw it in BK’s dawn patrol.

  38. When Malcolm hands his hereditary fiefdom, also known as the Wentworth electorate, to his son-in-law, that will show truly spectacular contempt for voters in the area. I wonder if they will cop it, particularly after Malcolm has soiled his brand. Will be fascinating.

  39. ML
    Which makes Turnbull’s recent assertion that he ‘trusts’ Trump and believes he has ‘wisdom’ very weird stuff indeed.

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