BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. OC
    It is not just you. The glorification of war has reached new depths this year.It seems to have morphed into a sort of nationalistic voyeuristic death porn.

  2. That cartoon for me perfectly embodied everything the Abbott Liberals embraced: thuggery, misogyny, sexism, anti-liberalism and anti free speech. It has stuck with me since the day I first saw it in BK’s dawn patrol.

    The sadder thing is that in the 21st century there are still Australians willing to vote for a party who embodies those ‘values’.

  3. Boerwar
    I think Turnbull has some “issues”.
    He’s certainly narcissistic, will do anything for perceived power, sell out any principle for another that suits the right wing tail wagging the dog, bow down to the US masters.
    He’s an empty suit.

  4. Why is Turnbull passing on his proposed hereditary title to Wentworth to his son in law?
    Isn’t his daughter good enough?

  5. Oakeshott Country
    Been ever increasingly so since !@#$#$##!! Howard arrived on the scene. Best summed up by an old school journo from The Australian back in about 1997. He related that he had been observing PMs at ANZAC parades since the days of Chifley and how they walked/slouched along as they reviewed the troops and how good and “Australian ‘such an attitude was. All except Howard who as he said “Puffed out his chest and strutted like a banty rooster” .

  6. I was in New Zealand recently and, after visiting the Gallipoli exhibition in Te Papa in Wellington, I chanced to have a discussion with several En Zedders on the ferry trip from Auckland to Waiheke. On the way out one of them pointed out three or four grey painted ships. ‘That’s our whole navy right there,’ he chortled.
    They were interested to know what I thought.
    I made the observation that the use of gigantic figures did give a sort of classical heroic feeling to the exhibition and that the terrible suffering was faithfully represented.
    I then made the point that the main problem I had with the exhibition was that it lacked almost all context except for a highly NZ-centric and personalized view of what had happened. For example, I asked, ‘Do you know which country sustained the most casualties on Gallipoli?’ They got Turkey right. ‘And after the Turks?’
    They were absolutely clueless. They had no idea that the French had even fought on Gallipoli and much less that, of the Allied countries, the French suffered most casualties on Gallipoli.
    I pointed out that New Zealanders and Australians shared this lack of contextual knowledge about Gallipoli.
    The conversation was friendly.

  7. Bw

    Which makes Turnbull’s recent assertion that he ‘trusts’ Trump and believes he has ‘wisdom’ very weird stuff indeed.

    A madness statement if there ever was one!

  8. Re WW2, apart from rebuilding their pacific fleet, I think the US in the early war years took longer to mobilize their industry than they anticipated. The US and the U.K. also sent a lot of war materials to the USSR.
    An evaluation of US weapons when they entered the war was that they only lead in one category across the army navy and air forces – the weapon: the infantry rifle.

  9. Monica L:

    Yes I’ve noticed that the govt’s line du jour is that the Nth Korean govt needs to spend more effort on its people rather than nuclear war seems to be an effort to strike that happy medium between supporting a mental patient in Trump and putting itself out there in lock step behind the US. But then Pence arrived and smashed that tightrope walking to smithereens.

  10. Monica Lynagh,
    What worries me about Turnbull is that he is embracing the Military. AntonBruckner11 linked to a front page article in Turnbull’s local newspaper today which featured his son-in-law, James Brown, former Army commander, in all his medallioned ‘glory’, and the suggestion was that Turnbull is attempting to create a dynasty in the seat of Wentworth by grooming James Brown to take over after him.

    I just find it uncomfortable, myself, to see so many former military and police types, like Dutton and Andrew Hastie recently, moving into our parliament. Of course they have as much right as anyone else to be there, but it’s the political parties who pre-select them to run first, and it just shows how the Liberal Party are trending that they seem to do it the most.

  11. Fess

    That’s exactly what I’m trying to say; Peter Dutton, to me, is nothing less than a thug.

    You have to wonder why a brute like him would want a place in parliament.

    We (Australia) often regale our democracy, yet with fckers like Dutton, you wonder who’ll be in charge.

    This is one person all of us need to stop.

  12. JR
    US subs (and associated doctrine) were superior to Japanese subs. But the Japanese torpedoes were far superior.
    US carriers as ships were superior to Japanese carriers but their carrier-borne aircraft were inferior to those of the Japanese.

  13. All except Howard who as he said “Puffed out his chest and strutted like a banty rooster” .

    And his wattle broches he wore each year kept getting bigger until THAT year when it was simply so enormous you could barely see him for the shrubbery attached to his breast. All the comedy programs and talk shows were mocking him with it, it was hilarious.

  14. Fulvio – I’m with you. I think the electorate must have a gutful of Malcolm’s games (including his newspoll games). This poll could be dreadful for the libs.

  15. Journalists haven’t asked Gotcha question of a Liberal since Hewson demonstrated he didn’t know how to eat a birthday cake.

  16. Cotmomma – Any officer who only reaches the rank of captain in the army must be a spectacular dud. They only really start weeding them out at major/lieutenant-colonel.

  17. Howard came to adulthood having missed the most significant event in his lifetime. There was a view abroad several decades ago that Howard felt inadequate for not having participated.
    Especially when he pumped petrol.
    I don’t know.

  18. kezza:

    Dutton is more of an empty suit than even Abbott was. If the Libs turn to him to replace Turnbull as leader then stay tuned for more of the same idiocy he served up to Insiders this morning.

    Besides, Labor are coasting towards electoral victory anyway. Another leadership change by the Libs would only cement that outcome.

  19. People laughed when Brandis said that neutering 18C was what the Anzacs fought for but he was correct.
    At the end of the war PM Hughes famously addressed the troops and said that through their sacrifice they, as distinct from the wobblies and shirkers who opposed conscription, had achieved 3 things:
    1. Reparations with interest
    2. the Australian empire would extend into the Pacific by gaining the German colonies
    3. The new world order would not recognise racial equality and the White Australia Policy was secure
    100 years later not only do we continue to mindlessly celebrate this but the distant from reality gets larger each year

  20. One of my mates, a nasho who served in Vietnam, was venting about Turnbull the other day.
    While it was sort of music to my ears, Lucy may have found it rather distasteful.

  21. C@t:

    I reckon Turnbull is only embracing the military because that’s where the Lib base is and if any Liberal leader needed to connect with the Lib base it’s Malcolm.

    If I were a Lib member I’d be more concerned at the lack of diversity, gender and otherwise manifesting in my parliamentary party at the federal level.

  22. Menzies had to bear the shame of missing out on WW1 (though his brothers went). Eddie Ward loved to get up in Federal Parliament and say that Menzies had a glorious military career cut short by the outbreak of war. Now that must have hurt.

  23. Speaking of Anzackery, did I ever mention that my dear departed granddad supplied a lot of the Portland cement, essential for the construction of fortifications and bunkers for the North African campaign in WW2 to the British army, from his Cairo cement works?

  24. Here is an extract from an article by PvO on the topic:

    ‘Credlin and O’Dwyer do not like each other. When Credlin was Tony Abbott’s chief of staff she expressed negative sentiments about O’Dwyer’s skills to others. O’Dwyer has long questioned Credlin’s self-stylised role as a champion of women within the Liberal Party.

    If either women found a way to walk on water across Sydney Harbour, the other women would point out that when doing so she neglected to pay the toll. This is why Credlin was the perfect puppet for the superannuation group angry at O’Dwyer — they knew she couldn’t help but fuel the story.

    Liberals wanting clean air have every right to be angry at Credlin for kicking along a distracting story which really has no prospects of morphing into a tangible challenge. Credlin seriously challenging O’Dwyer for Higgins is a fantasy, as she would well know.’

  25. Monica – Turnbull has a particularly vicious strain of narcissism. Anyone who gets in his way, who thwarts his ambition, is subject to the most cruel and thuggish bullying. He can’t even stop himself on national TV.

  26. Boerwar,
    As I remember it, Howard was unable to enlist in the Military, as much as he wanted to, due to a congenital hearing problem.

  27. Boerwar:

    Sky News Australia
    3 mins ·
    Peta Credlin has denied she has been approached to run for the safe Liberal seat of Higgins in Victoria.

  28. Oakeshott Country

    And, of course, there hasn’t been a war since Hughes was PM.

    And that makes Brandis right, and Boerwar, stupid.

    I mean, how dumb are you?

  29. ‘Fess,
    If I were a Lib member I’d be more concerned at the lack of diversity, gender and otherwise manifesting in my parliamentary party at the federal level.

    Sigh. And even when they do choose a woman, she’s sometimes a former Military officer,such as WA’s Linda Reynolds!

  30. Buggered if I know, but apparently it’s one of the ingredients required to make concrete.
    Family history, probably all bullshit, is that he found a mountain of the basic material in the Saharan desert between the wars, raised capital to build a railway to ship it to Cairo, and started a cement factory.

  31. When Joe Lyons died in early 1939, Earle Page the leader of the Country Party became acting PM and spent his 20 days in office trying to get anyone other than Menzies to be the new UAP PM, largely because of Menzies treachery against Lyons and his cowardice in WW1. He spilt the beans in the house when it became obvious that Menzies would be PM:

    Sir EARLE PAGE – I come now to the third incident: Some 24 years ago the right honorable member for Kooyong was a member of the Australian Military Forces and held the King’s Commission. In 1915, after having been in the military forces for some years, he resigned his commission and did not go overseas.
    Mr James – That is dirt!
    Sir EARLE PAGE – I am not suggesting that the right honorable gentleman had not the best possible reasons for his action.
    Mr JOHN LAWSON (MACQUARIE, NEW SOUTH WALES) – Then why did the right honorable gentleman mention the matter ?
    Sir EARLE PAGE – I am not calling into question the reason for the right honorable gentleman’s action, nor would I question the reason of any other individual in similar circumstances. All I say is that the right honorable gentleman has not explained, to the satisfaction of the very great body of people who did participate in the war, his reasons, and because of this I am afraid that he will not be able to get that maximum effort from the people of Australia to which I have referred.

    I love Rowley James (Hunter) shouting “That is Dirt!” Rowley and his son Bert were the greatest mud slingers in the house in the history of the Federation. They were also among the
    most left wing. Bert was recently exposed as being a Soviet person of influence/agent.

  32. C
    ‘Sky News Australia
    3 mins ·
    Peta Credlin has denied she has been approached to run for the safe Liberal seat of Higgins in Victoria.’
    She is not exactly truthing.

  33. Fulvio

    I had cause to see your Egyptian connections, at one stage of my genealogical travels, and it was a wonderful travel indeed. More power to your arm.

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