BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 11
1 2 … 11

  1. Meh.
    A job snob is a job snob is a job snob.
    We have around 760,000 job snobbers snobbing around 10 job vacancies.
    We also have around 1,000,000 partial job snobbers who are snobbing no extra work at all.
    They are all complete and utter slackarses living high and mighty off the hard-working negative gearing property mogul Australian Coalition MP working families who are snow jobbing…
    Oh, wait.

  2. c@tmomma @ #989 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 12:19 pm

    Speaking about The Lolstralian’s topic du jour today, that being ‘job snobs’, can I just call bullshit on it?
    My son, who is long-term unemployed, through no want of trying, has been hoping his (Private) Job Provider could provide him with a job, any job, so he could start earning. He’s done his learning, he trained in an area of expansion in the job market. So what’s the problem you may ask?
    Where we live.
    On the Central Coast of NSW, now that the federal government and NSW Coalition State governments have defenestrated TAFE and Public job training opportunities, as mentioned above, a giant pool of unemployed and underemployed young people has been created. Do you think they care? Of course they don’t because it creates pressure on those who are employed to accept any wages and any conditions, or else they’ll be sacked and someone who does want to work for that pay, and those conditions, will willingly take their place, because up here a job, any job, is better than the stultifying boredom of joblessness.
    Also, if you don’t take a job, any job, which is offered to you then your Youth Allowance or Newstart Benefit is cut off immediately, for a minimum of 6 weeks.
    So there’s no ‘Job Snob’ about it.
    The Australian has gone into the Fake News business. But I guess you knew that already.
    .
    .
    .
    I call bullshit on it too. Its the type of bullshit that is peddled by people like Turnbull and Porter who have never had a job in their lives which wasn’t in some way, shape or form facilitated by family, friends or the old boys network.

    They have zero experience of having to get a job via traditional means of responding to a job and then going through the interview process as a cold contact, so they have no idea what it is like to be on the receiving end of any combination of (WTTE):
    – No response to a job application
    – You are underqualified
    – You are overqualified
    – You lack sufficient experience
    – You have too much experience
    – Someone like you would not want this job
    – We’ve considered all the applicants and while your experience and qualifications are suitable, we don’t think you’d be a good fit for our organisation

    When you look at it from Turnbull and Porter’s world view and life experience anyone without a job either doesn’t want one, or is a job snob. Turnbull and Porter come from a world where all it takes is a few calls to family, friends and/or associates and your path to a job is facilitated via those same connections.

  3. zoomster @ #1032 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    I don’t think the test of a public transport system is whether it takes people everywhere they might possibly want to go. It would almost be impossible to design such a system, and it would almost inevitably be unnecessarily expensive.
    Most people living in the city want to go to the CBD, so it makes sense that that’s where most public transport should also be focussed.
    The number of people, for example, who want to travel from Box Hill to Eltham by public transport would be minuscule. Of course, if you did improve transport between those points, it would increase – but the question would be whether it increased enough to be worth the cost.

    There is a circle route bus in Perth which connects most of the major universities, a number of major shopping centres and bus interchanges on all 5 major railway lines. Its a heavily patronised service and I used it a lot when I was going to uni to get from the nearest train station to the campus.

  4. I’d be delighted if Corbyn were to win, but sadly he won’t come within cooee.
    May’s broken promise not to have an early election should help him but Labour’s future is bleak, particularly under a first-past-the-post voting system.

  5. With the seat projection showing 4 seats moving to ALP in WA would that be Hasluck, Swan, Pearce and Stirling?

    Pearce that has never had a Labor sitting member!

  8. There is a circle route bus in Perth which connects most of the major universities, a number of major shopping centres and bus interchanges on all 5 major railway lines.

    Is it still free to catch the CAT buses? I agree it was (is) a fantastic service for the CBD and Fremantle.

  9. Bemused – re the Dambusters and your comment.
    I live in a very small coastal town in CQ. Last Tuesday I took up a long standing invitation to go around to a persons place to check out his large collection of Live Steam, model trains, and railway memorabilia etc. The bloke lives about 400m from me as the crow flies. Long story short I never knew he had such a collection horded in four large sheds. But everyshed had huge surprises for me. He had 3 live steam model engines that run on a 5 inch guage track he had built on his 5 acre property. He is in the process of expanding the track. He just has a large oval track at the moment.

    During my visit he got talking about his library of books and things. He had in his collection hundreds and hundreds of war and airforce books and memorabila. He had all of these in a specially built dwelling. He then showed me what he considered was one of his prize possessions. His Uncle Ken Morieson was a pilot/navigator of bombers involved in the Dambusters. He had his flight diaries in mint condition and showed me the pages that showed some of the missions he flew and the targets with Dam Names etc. He also told me that there was a very large contingent of aussies amongst the Dam Busters.

    This ‘neighbour’ told me that when his uncle returned after the war that he was heavily decorated with numerous medals but from his (the neighbours) memory his Uncle Ken was always reluctant to talk about his war exploits. He did say one of the medals was the highest you could get in the airforce at the time.
    He went on to say that when his Uncle returned to Aus from the European campaign he was a chief instructor in teaching new airforce pilots and getting them as conditioned as possible and as quickly as can be. His Uncle was killed in a training air crash.

    Crikey the neighbour had some gear stashed too. A 1930 roadster for restoration, an old Jag sports car that had only 700 miles on the speedo (I know little about cars mind you)/

    Near a week after seeing it I am still blown away with what was in his sheds.

  11. I’d be delighted if Labour under Corbyn wins.

    I’d also be delighted if my chooks started laying golden eggs. Not sure which is more likely.

  12. confessions @ #5 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 4:36 pm

    With the seat projection showing 4 seats moving to ALP in WA would that be Hasluck, Swan, Pearce and Stirling?
    Pearce that has never had a Labor sitting member!

    Its a seat that over time has gone from rurul, to semi rural, and will soon be totally outer suburban. In 1990 none of the suburbs that made up its population were in existence, fast forward to 2016 and the urban sprawl of Perth has resulted in Pearce being substantially outer suburban population wise.

    Overlaying the booth results from the 2016 state election onto Pearce result in a hypothetical devastating loss for Porter.

  13. jeffemu @ #9 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 4:44 pm
    Sounds like some amazing stuff there!
    My father was in the RAAF as an Airframe Fitter in 450 Sqn. His best mate was selected for aircrew training and ended up on Lancasters as a Flight Engineer.
    He survived the war and went on to fly for Qantas.
    Unfortunately I never got to talk to him about his experiences.
    Dad had a small collection of memorabilia including an Iron Cross, a couple of other bits and pieces including a 20mm canon shell rendered safe and loads of photographs. He also had extensive diaries which I never saw until relatively recently. I think I will give them to the War Memorial in Canberra if they are interested.
    I have the utmost respect for my father’s generation and what they went through.

  14. Grimace:

    Yes that makes sense. Also at a state level parts of the Hasluck electorate have been held by WA Labor – when I first moved to the Hills the ALP sitting member was a young woman whose name escapes me.

    The polls also indicate Stirling is in the mix for Labor. And while Stirling has in the past been held by ALP sitting members, Keenan has been the elected representative for yonks so this presents as a greater challenge to my way of thinking. I’d love it if fed Labor’s seat haul next election amounted to greater than the coalition’s btw. 😀

  16. confessions @ #8 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    There is a circle route bus in Perth which connects most of the major universities, a number of major shopping centres and bus interchanges on all 5 major railway lines.

    Is it still free to catch the CAT buses? I agree it was (is) a fantastic service for the CBD and Fremantle.

    The Perth ones are, don’t know about Fremantle.

  17. The majority of those killed in the Dambusters raid consisted of Allied civilians working as slave laborers and French POWs.
    There was no appreciable impact on German war production.

  18. Porter losing his seat would be swell. He comes across as arrogant and mean. It would be icing on the cake for Labor given a uniform swing would have given them government in the East already.

  19. confessions @ #14 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    Grimace:
    Yes that makes sense. Also at a state level parts of the Hasluck electorate have been held by WA Labor – when I first moved to the Hills the ALP sitting member was a young woman whose name escapes me.
    The polls also indicate Stirling is in the mix for Labor. And while Stirling has in the past been held by ALP sitting members, Keenan has been the elected representative for yonks so this presents as a greater challenge to my way of thinking. I’d love it if fed Labor’s seat haul next election amounted to greater than the coalition’s btw.

  20. Friggen emotions!!

    confessions @ #14 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    Grimace:
    Yes that makes sense. Also at a state level parts of the Hasluck electorate have been held by WA Labor – when I first moved to the Hills the ALP sitting member was a young woman whose name escapes me.
    The polls also indicate Stirling is in the mix for Labor. And while Stirling has in the past been held by ALP sitting members, Keenan has been the elected representative for yonks so this presents as a greater challenge to my way of thinking. I’d love it if fed Labor’s seat haul next election amounted to greater than the coalition’s btw.

    Briefly and I had an extended discussion about Labor’s prospects in Stirling in the last thread. I have my doubts that Labor will hold it again due to blue ribbon Liberal territory west of the freeway and gentrification east of it. Its an interesting seat which combines some of Perth’s richest suburbs and what were formally Perth’s poorest suburbs.

  22. Credlin to challenge O’Dwyer? It simply won’t happen. The Toorak mob haven’t got a clue about the reality of politics. It’s an amusing tale for the junkies and insiders and that’s all it is.

  24. Boerwar

    There was no appreciable impact on German war production

    The most effective hit was a kiwi fluck up. The crew bounced the bomb over the top of the damn wall but by luck it hit the turbine hall .
    In more NZ news a thought to be extinct bird may well be alive and kicking over there. They have audio and reports, now need visual.

    http://www.greystar.co.nz/sites/default/files/kQ-0730_240317_rough_remaster%20-%20single%20call.mp3
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11842771

  26. The Australian’s article about “Job Snobs” is billed as an “exclusive”, which is Murdoch-speak for some crap they made up or, as is likely in this case, a drop from the PM’s office (so maybe some crap they made up).

    Expect an attack on the unemployed in the Budget.

  27. Al Pal:

    The Credlin-O’Dwyer story apparently centers around some grouchy very wealthy Lib members in Toorak who are unhappy about some policy decision related to O’Dwyer’s portfolio that negatively impacts them.

    The concept of Big Swinging Dicks comes to mind with this. I agree it’s highly unlikely to go anywhere.

  29. Did anyone else notice the comment by Turnbull in the Guardian Australia report t0day on his meeting with Pence, to the effect that he trusted the wisdom of Trump and Pence?
    Even given one would expect over the top schmoozing, this is insane.

  32. I see that the Bulldogs still excel at throwball.
    The fundamental rules principle with handballing (these days) is that at some time in the movement of the ball by hand both hands have to be in contact with the ball.
    What the bulldogs do is a travesty.
    What the umpires do is tainted.

  35. This joke was used originally in England because the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg sold out on most of their promises. I think its highly relevant to Turnbull right now:

    Todays sucking up to Trump and Pence was pretty bad.

  36. BW

    Judging by my Twitter feed, last night there was controversy in the Rugby League match about one side passing the ball forward which the refs let go.

    It seems that both codes are being let down by poor officials. Perhaps there should be a new category of 457 visas for sporting officials with working eyesight and a working knowledge of the game they’re officiating.

    Or perhaps they should swap jobs. AFL umpires overseeing RL matches, and RL referees overseeing AFL matches. That couldn’t work out nay worse than what is happening currently.

  37. confessions @ #25 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 6:05 pm

    Grimace:
    I’m doubtful of Stirling too. If we can win Hasluck, Swan and Pearce I’ll be very happy.

    I think Labor will have penciled in holding its existing seats plus wins in Hasluck, Swan and Pearce, which takes them to 8 of the 16 seats in Perth.

    A strong campaign should see the back of Hastie in Canning now that the mining boom is well and truly over, and the L/NP will be vulnerable in Durack for the same reason.

    The L/NP incumbents in Hasluck, Swan, Pearce, Canning and Durack will no doubt have overlaid the results from the state election onto their Federal electorates and will be very nervous.

    Long term, the urbanisation of Bunbury, Busselton, Margaret River and surrounds should bring Forrest into play for Labor.

  38. Well that’s a new bit of digital prestidigitation by Mr Bowe. He puts the ‘New Thread’ link up at the bottom of a page, then if you make a comment you go to next page, where you can’t see his link! Fooled me for 2 hours. 😳

  39. Peoples be kind to the Truffles. It is a Liberal Party tradition .Whether it be “I did just see her passing by” or an “All the way with LBJ” or “”Drive over the bastards” . Truffles is compelled by the Borg to be that way.

  40. UK changes to fiscal and tax policies (e.g. 3% increase in stamp duty and negative gearing on interest reducing to 20% by 2021 on investment properties) have significantly reduced investor property purchases freeing up property for first time buyers.

    Investor specialists squeal that rents will rise as rental properties dry up. Well, they would. As was pointed out here on PB recently, the new home buyers were once renters – the net effect is sum zero as properties available decrease the same as the number of renters decrease, now minus the new buyers, all other things being equal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/22/buy-to-let-slump-first-time-buyers-drivers-seat-lenders-loans-landlords

    (The effect on prices will be interesting. Price rises have slowed, but the effect of rush buying by investors last year might be a factor.)

  41. Poroti
    Yep. Every straw is worth clutching at. Zealandia was great, inspiring even, BTW. Well worth a visit if anyone is visiting Wellington.

  42. I
    Investment more generally, apart from the tens of billions of Government stimulus measures, has hit the wall after Brexit.

  44. DG
    My view is that there should be an exchange program. Every recalcitrant ref should be exchanged for a Manus Island refugee. The latter could be trained to do something useful: like officiate with competence.

  48. SA Chapter Knees Up.
    The usual suspects please check your junk folder for your VIP invites.
    If you want an invitation please email me via tuckerboxdog at hmamail dot com
    Cheers
    Puffy.

  50. For as much as it is worth, in relation to British 2WW movies, I thought The Cruel Sea was much more evocative movie than Dam Busters. Of course, the latter movie has been chopped to hell over the years on FTA TV as it is quite a long movie. The fact that the spinning bomb was still “Top Secret” long after the war was over, has always been a mystery to me. However, the classic line from the DBs is when the inventor, Barnes Wallace, is seeking a Wellington Bomber to do some trials and the Civil Servant asks…………wtte……….”And what possible reason could I give for letting you have a Wellington?” to which the reply came, “Do you think that if you tell them I designed it might help?” It is a wonder the British ever won the war………….a brilliant piece of understatement however……….

Comments Page 1 of 11
1 2 … 11

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *