BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 11
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  1. Just got home to see Mal the super Magnificent playing statesmen with another fraud.

    This will be lapped up by all media outlets and surely be worth a couple of points in Newspoll in conjunction with the Aussie first crap.

  3. Tricot
    No need to wonder at all. Essentially, by any statistical measure you want to use, the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans won the war.
    The British were bit players.

  5. ItzaDream,
    Such a pity that sign couldn’t have been better composed to have Malcolm beside the bit that said ‘Dag’ or ‘Dog’, even better. 🙂

  6. I don’t think the test of a public transport system is whether it takes people everywhere they might possibly want to go. It would almost be impossible to design such a system, and it would almost inevitably be unnecessarily expensive.

    Zoomster,

    The test of a good public transport system is whether choose to use it in preference to using private car transport over medium to longer distances – 15Km+.

    That’s where both Sydney and Melbourne have badly failed. The price of not doing so is increasingly wider motorways. Which per person-Km are far more expensive than implementing fast rail.

    Public transport advocates too often think that all you need is connectivity. That public transport has to reach every nook and cranny. And then ignore that with cities the size of Sydney and now Melbourne, people just don’t use rail for longer distances unless they are forced to by other factors.

    As car usage changes and cars become more autonomous there will be less and less need for local bus services. Rather the connection to the nearest train station will be more uber-like in nature. What this means is that except in the core of the city, we don’t need closely spaced stations. Instead we need much faster transits between stations.

    Ordinary, slow (100Km/hr class) rail is completely pointless in physically large cities. Sydney needs some high speed backbone links. So does Melbourne.

  7. Boerwar
    I did not really get a handle on what “The Great Patriotic War’ meant to the Russians until working with one for a while. The English translation of the Russian term for WWII the “Great Patriotic War” does not quite convey the meaning. The term also has an element of the fight for their very existence. One thing that surprised me was how positive they guy was towards Germans.

  9. cud chewer @ #56 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    I don’t think the test of a public transport system is whether it takes people everywhere they might possibly want to go. It would almost be impossible to design such a system, and it would almost inevitably be unnecessarily expensive.

    Zoomster,
    The test of a good public transport system is whether choose to use it in preference to using private car transport over medium to longer distances – 15Km+.
    That’s where both Sydney and Melbourne have badly failed. The price of not doing so is increasingly wider motorways. Which per person-Km are far more expensive than implementing fast rail.
    Public transport advocates too often think that all you need is connectivity. That public transport has to reach every nook and cranny. And then ignore that with cities the size of Sydney and now Melbourne, people just don’t use rail for longer distances unless they are forced to by other factors.
    As car usage changes and cars become more autonomous there will be less and less need for local bus services. Rather the connection to the nearest train station will be more uber-like in nature. What this means is that except in the core of the city, we don’t need closely spaced stations. Instead we need much faster transits between stations.
    Ordinary, slow (100Km/hr class) rail is completely pointless in physically large cities. Sydney needs some high speed backbone links. So does Melbourne.

    Existing train routes can be used as such if there are sufficient tracks.
    A good example is what has happened with the East Hills line in Sydney. Now linked to the Southern line at Glenfield with track quadruplication as far as Revesby. This allows express services, servicing outer areas, to run in parallel with ‘all stations’ trains servicing inner areas.
    Melbourne simply does not have this except for a half-baked 3 track effort on the Belgrave and Lilydale lines as far as Box Hill.
    Simply inadequate.

  10. Boerwar
    By amazing coincidence I have in the last 10 minutes come across this article/book review. In it the German guy says “I remember once, on Christmas Eve, in Russia, soldiers were throwing presents they’d gotten from home to each other, across the lines.The packages were full of sweets, cakes, cigarettes. A symbol for the holiday.”

    War veterans: Confessions of a Japanese kamikaze pilot, Nazi officer, Russian war hero and more…

    Extracted and abridged from Veterans: Faces of World War II, by Sasha Maslov (Princeton Architectural Press, £19.99), which is published on 2 May.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/war-veterans-confessions-japanese-kamikaze-pilot-nazi-officer/

  11. The seat count i am really interested in for the next election is that of the senate.
    Will we see a few less ONP seats?, what about FF?
    The composition will be sufficiently different that should the ALP come to power they may have enough friendlies to get some strong legislation through; esp. RC into banks, more social support funding esp. for health, education and Aboriginal services; not to mention NDIS.
    Will they tackle pokies & betting on TV?
    Who knows, but i wait in anticipation

  12. I don’t wish to idealise Sydney’s rail service as I know it has lots of problems. But I picked an example of something good that should be replicated in Melbourne.
    For example, beyond Caulfield, there are two tracks to carry the Gippsland freight, Gippsland passenger, Packenham line and Cranbourne line which branches off just past Dandenong as a single track!!! Absolutely absurd!
    A previous Labor Govt proposed adding a third track to Dandenong (half-baked solution) and the then operator pleaded for two more tracks – a proper solution.
    The Pakenham line is hopelessly overloaded.

  13. Bemused

    Come to Perth and check out Westralia’s trains. Not bloody bad at all. Praise be to Brian Burke winning in 1983 else it would never have happened.

  14. poroti @ #63 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    Bemused
    Come to Perth and check out Westralia’s trains. Not bloody bad at all. Praise be to Brian Burke winning in 1983 else it would never have happened.

    Yes, I have heard good things about them and they have some more modern 15KV AC trains whereas Melbourne and I think Sydney, have 1200VDC.
    I was going to take a ride when in Perth on a business trip, but didn’t have the time.

  15. BW—a bit hard on the Brits for WW2 and the losses they sustained, though in the light of some 50 million plus killed back then, I would agree the majority of those deaths/suffering would have been on Russian soil…………………However, was it John Donne who said the death of one person demeans us all………..? I suspect the relatives of the 50,000 or so RAF/RAAF and others who died over Germany felt that they were doing what they could to ‘win the war’. If we were to judge by loss of men/women, then our contribution at Anzac is likely over-shadowed by losses of the British, French and the Turks themselves. I suspect without actually checking the history, that the loss of New Zealanders would have been equally pro-rata heavy. I suspect they all thought they were helping to ‘win the war’

  18. If anyone is considering sending war memorabilia to the War Museum I can heartily recommend it. My father who, when in the RAAF, served in (then) Malaya as part of the response to the ‘Emergency’, donated a diary, flight logs and photos before he died around 10 years ago.
    When there last year I saw a new (albeit, small) display on the Emergency, and I am certain a couple of his photos were featured. Also all of the material is stored safely for anyone who requests to see it, I saw the viewing library and it was very busy.

  19. The story of this government is explained in 1 figure above the -7 for net seats in Queensland, I mentioned this last bludgertrack when it was -6, and I can’t see the government changing.
    I am sure Dutton is one of the magnificent 7.

  20. Given the Law and Order drum the Libs are beating in Victoria, this is an excellent and welcome article.

    Law and Order: When taking the hard line is the weak option

    We all want to be popular, which is why I feel particularly blessed to be the subject of an unending torrent of affection in this newsroom.

    Such as the welcome I receive on returning to Media House after a rare sojourn in the outside world. “Where the hell have you been?” an editor will ask (we have several, they breed like rabbits). “Can you file your bilge soon so we can turn it into English?’

    I know this is just their way of saying, “We miss you and can’t wait to read this week’s quirky column”. Touching, really.

    But for politicians, popularity is more than a warm and fuzzy feeling. It is the lifeblood of their chosen trade.

    Why else would you kiss strange babies that may bring up their pureed-apple breakfast on your designer suit, or wear hi-vis vests that make you look like Mr Bean, if not to endear yourself to the people? Politicians are elected to reflect our views and not impose an order upon us – it is called democracy.

    But democracy can’t be run like a beauty pageant – although sometimes it seems the biggest boobs tend to win in both contests. Elected representatives must develop policies that make sense to the voters or they will be out on their ears.

    In state politics there is no bigger issue than law and order, and with an election next year there have already been hundreds of stories and millions of words devoted to government and opposition promises to curb crime.

    Yet really, the positions of both sides can be summarised in just three words: “Lock ’em up.”

    The government plans to increase police numbers by about 3000 while the opposition promises to introduce mandatory sentencing for repeat offenders in 11 crime categories.

    Consider these facts. In 2006 we had 4000 prisoners, but 10 years later that number had increased by more than 65 per cent to 6500. That will grow to 8000 in the next few years, and with Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s mandatory sentence proposals it will crack 10,000. That is a fivefold jump from 2001.

    We are building the 1000-bed Ravenhall Prison at a cost of $670 million, and on these projections will have to build another. Right now our prisons are full and police watch-houses are packed.

    In 2002, police staff numbers were about 12,500 but under Premier Daniel Andrews’ initiative will pass 20,000 by 2020 – a jump of 60 per cent. And the crime rate keeps rising.

    We are heading down a track with a proven dead end. And we should know, as white settlement in Australia was designed to relieve pressure on overcrowded British jails. It didn’t work then and won’t work now.

    In traditionally tough-talking Texas they have changed direction and invested in rehabilitation and mental health and addiction programs. The result has seen a drop in prison numbers, the closure of three jails and a reduced crime rate.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/law-and-order-when-taking-the-hard-line-is-the-weak-option-20170420-gvoc4y.html

  22. Poroti
    Yep. There were times when the Eastern Front stabilized and soldiers on both sides went about their daily businesses in full view of each other and within easy rifle shot of each other. There was often a tacit agreement not to shoot at each other and make each other’s lives miserable.
    They all knew that preparations were being made for the next big push when thousands of artillery pieces would fire hundreds of thousands of shells in a day or so.

  24. Apologies to Adrian and all the other mindless ABC haters, but this was a great segment on the ABC Science Show today.

    Soil carbon ‘a saviour’ in locking up carbon
    Land clearing and agriculture have stripped carbon from our soils. Carbon exists as complex root systems, in bacteria and in fungi. But much of this has been removed as we have cleared native vegetation, tilled and spread fertiliser about. Globally, more than 60% of carbon has been lost from soils. The estimate is a 66% loss across Australia. Soils contain at least three times the carbon as is found in the atmosphere. So regenerating soils and returning carbon offers vast potential as a carbon sink. Robin Batterham says we need to add more organic material to soils and reduce the inorganic inputs such as urea. Native vegetation needs to be valued higher as it stores carbon and maintains soil biodiversity.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/soil-carbon-%E2%80%98a-saviour%E2%80%99-in-locking-up-carbon/8460928

    You can listen to the audio or download it.

  25. Boerwar
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 7:18 pm
    Tricot
    No need to wonder at all. Essentially, by any statistical measure you want to use, the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans won the war.
    The British were bit players.

    Maybe so. But it was the Brits (and France) who were the first to stand up to Nazi aggression. The Americans were happy to stand by and watch for two years, until the Japanese sank a large chunk of their navy at Pearl Harbour; and the Russians had no choice but to get involved after Hitler attacked them.

  27. A fake conservative like Turdbull didn’t deserve the honour of meeting a real conservative in Pence. Thank goodness Turdbull will be dumped as leader in a few weeks time.

  28. Bree

    A fake conservative like Turdbull didn’t deserve the honour of meeting a real conservative in Pence. Thank goodness Turdbull will be dumped as leader in a few weeks time.

    I am not sure that it would be an honour for anyone to meet a dimwitted creationist like Pence.

  29. Thank goodness Turdbull will be dumped as leader in a few weeks time.

    Whenever they get around to dumping him they’ll only choose another total loser to replace him – that’s all they’ve got.

  30. Bree
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:30 pm
    “A fake conservative like Turdbull didn’t deserve the honour of meeting a real conservative in Pence. Thank goodness Turdbull will be dumped as leader in a few weeks time.”

    Did Lucy meet ‘mother’?

  31. Thanks Turdball for all your arselicking today and for putting us in the North Korean firing line.Fucking idiot.

  32. frednk Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    DamBusters the damage.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/dambusters-true-impact-revealed-70-years-on-1-2932144
    A little more than a few POW’s.

    ******************************************
    The reconnaissance pictures of the water flowing of the broken Mohne dam in the mornings papers gave the raid a great psychological morale boost to many war weary Britons and help impress the Americans who were slowly building up the USAAF in England.

    I remember in one documentary a still living member of the Dambuster squadron saying he could not walk into a pub without free beers being thrust upon him …

    After the raid, the government did what it could to protect someone who had become famous for his bravery. Gibson was sent to America on a lecture tour. One of his tasks was to inspire American bomber crews who had returned to America after a tour of duty – twenty five bombing raids. In one question and answer session, Gibson was asked how many operations he had been on. The Americans were in great awe when Gibson replied that it stood at one hundred and seventy-four.

    However, lecturing was not in Gibson’s blood and he pestered Bomber Command for a return to operational duties. He got his wish in 1944. On September 19th, 1944, Gibson along with his navigator James Warwick, was killed flying a Mosquito over Holland. Subsequent investigation of the wrecked Mosquito showed that his plane had not been shot down but as a result of a faulty fuel selector tank, he had simply run out of fuel.

  33. I was not arguing the toss on why people went to war in World War Two.
    My point is quite simple. Britain was a bit player compared to the contribution of the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans. They won the war. Britain was along for the ride.
    In relation to the contribution of the dams raid, it made no appreciable difference to German war production.
    In the big picture, it was a very minor tactical victory but had no strategic impact.
    Subsequent glorification of the event has served more to hide the truth than to expose it.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A very slow news day.

    North Korea’s foreign ministry has lashed out at Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and warned Australia was “coming within the range of the nuclear strike”. What a wonderful world!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-warns-australia-of-nuclear-strike-over-julie-bishops-comments-20170422-gvqg5e.html
    A family court judge with common sense!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/court-rules-on-parents-dispute-about-sending-their-children-to-private-schools-20170422-gvq68a.html
    Amy Remeikis on Turnbull doubling down on his “Australia First” message.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-doubles-down-on-australia-first-message-20170422-gvqc6s.html
    What’s going on with the Liberal Party and Kelly O’Dwyer?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vexed-liberals-move-to-dump-kelly-odwyer-while-on-maternity-leave-20170422-gvqajr.html
    The French election could be catastrophic for Australia, delivering a greater local impact than Ms May’s almost certain landslide return to Downing Street and the continuity of Brexit.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/04/22/french-election-result/
    Eight hundred mental health professionals have come together to issue a warning to the American people about the dangerous mental state of Donald Trump.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/22/hundreds-mental-health-professionals-warn-america-trump-mentally-ill.html
    Are Amazon and the AWU heading for a big stoush?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/unions-vow-to-take-on-amazon-as-its-harsh-reputation-precedes-it-20170422-gvq8nd.html
    Deliberative democracy at work in Ireland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/22/abortion-in-ireland-committee-votes-for-constitutional-change
    Yesterday’s March for Science delivered some good messages.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/thousands-march-across-australia-for-science-and-reason-in-public-policy-20170422-gvqbbo.html

  35. Section 2 . . .

    Adele Ferguson has a good crack at the cosy arrangement that ASIC had with the big banks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sweating-on-every-word–how-asic-massaged-the-banking-message-20170421-gvp9qt.html
    A US Federal Court judge has given VW another hurdle to jump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/us-judge-sentences-volkswagen-to-three-years-probation-following-emissions-scandal-20170422-gvq67b.html

    Cathy Wilcox sums up Aussie values.

  36. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    A fake conservative like Turdbull didn’t deserve the honour of meeting a real conservative in Pence. Thank goodness Turdbull will be dumped as leader in a few weeks time.

    Because a ‘real Conservative’ woman like Bree supports a man that wants to put her back in her place, barefoot and with a quiver full, in the kitchen, home-schooling, aka brainwashing the young ‘uns, to be just as dimwitted as she and Mike Pence are.

  37. Hundreds Of Mental Health Professionals Warn That Trump Is Mentally Ill

    Eight hundred mental health professionals have come together to issue a warning to the American people about the dangerous mental state of Donald Trump.

    The warnings concerning Trump are coming from professionals and experts who are concerned that this president’s mental condition is dangerous. This isn’t some partisan move to smear a president. It is an alarm bell that is being sounded by people who know trouble when they see it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/22/hundreds-mental-health-professionals-warn-america-trump-mentally-ill.html

  38. Boerwar

    Britain was along for the ride.

    Oh sure, we really enjoyed the bombing, the blackouts, the rationing, the fear of invasion.

  39. Morning all. Thanks BK. The use by anyone in the coalition of the term “job snob” is pretty galling after Joe Hockey, the three hundred thousand dollar a year man, said the solution to housing prices was “get a better paying job”.

    The fact is, the coalitions promises when seeking power of “a million jobs” and “a stronger economy so everyone can get ahead” are being airbrushed from history because they have not been delivered. It is sometimes easy to forget just how many false promises Abbott and then Turnbull have made. Take a look.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbotts-campaign-launch-speech-full-transcript-20130825-2sjhc.html

  42. ” We’ve considered all the applicants and while your experience and qualifications are suitable, we don’t think you’d be a good fit for our organisation”

    I wish someone had said this to both Abbott and Turnbull

  45. jenauthor @ #92 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:42 am

    ” We’ve considered all the applicants and while your experience and qualifications are suitable, we don’t think you’d be a good fit for our organisation”
    I wish someone had said this to both Abbott and Turnbull

    Unfortunately they are.

  46. Lizzie
    I will find out your contact from a mutual friend. I have been intending to for a while!

    Or a search for Phylactella will find my email link at the bottom of certain pages!

  47. I see the renowned Anglophobe, Borewar, is in full moral sanctimony mode seeking to demean and diminish anything British.

  49. phylactella @ #90 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:33 am

    LoonPond has a long reflection on Anzac Day. Recommended!
    http://loonpond.blogspot.com.au

    I really enjoyed the comment shown in the article.
    Had my grandfather known that the freedom he signed up to protect in 1915 would one day allow two men to get married, teach his grandchildren that they are gender fluid, allow his country to be terrorised by people we freely allow here and forcing us to adopt their culture rather than adopting ours, he would never have gone over the top of the trenches. Neither would my father have joined and fought in the air force in WW2, nor would his brother have been the first on Omaha beach one June 6th 1944.
    My kind of guy ☠ . Of course great grandpa may also have enjoyed his freedom to shoot aborigines.
    ABC 24 this morning also great comedy with journalists interviewing journalists to enhance each others esteem while apparently quoting from yesterday’s newpapers and TV news.
    All’s well with the world.
    Mr. Pence advocates creationism and reinforces Einsteins observation about the universe and stupidity.
    I now prepare to revive my flagging enthusiasm with some soul restoring mowing and tree trimming.
    Good morning everybody and many thanks to BK for the dawn patrol, ☮ ✌

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