Courtesy of The Australian, the latest result from Newspoll records Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the last poll (which was three weeks ago rather than the usual two, owing to Easter). Labor and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 35% and 9%, with the Coalition and One Nation steady on 36% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 32% and down two on disapproval to 57%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 33% and down one to 53%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-32 to 42-33.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/poll-roundup.html
Poll Roundup: Recovery, Or Just Turbulence?
2PP 52.4 to Labor (-1.1)
Player One @ #1197 Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 – 10:35 pm
Burning more coal and/or gas, but less petrol and/or diesel. You only get a net increase in CO2 emissions if small ICE engines are more efficient than large-scale coal/gas generators, in terms of grams of CO2 emitted per usable kWh produced.
So you’d have to put some numbers to it. You need the typical efficiency of a small petrol engine, which appears to be around 35% for modern models. And the typical efficiency for coal-fired plants, which runs from 36% at the low end to 48% at the high end, so probably about 40% is a fair average (sidenote: gas generation is up to 60% efficient, so yes, would be better than coal by far). Then you need the energy density of both fuels, which is ~9 kWh/liter for petrol and ~8 kWh/kg for coal.
Then you can work out how much of each you’d need to produce the equivalent of the 110 usable kWh you’re putting into the EV. Which I get as ~35 liters of petrol vs ~34 kg of coal. Which appears to give ~82 kg of CO2 emissions for the petrol engine vs. ~78 kg from the coal.
So in other words, it’s basically a wash (in the worst-case, where all the power is coming from relatively inefficient coal-fired generation). And edges towards favoring the EV as more efficient generation sources are used (even if they’re fossil-fuel based, and even if the chosen fossil fuel is coal).
With an energy mix that includes even a small (5-10%) proportion of renewables, the EV gains a clear advantage. Moreso if you have rooftop solar (and timeshifting batteries, since you’ll probably want to charge your EV at night).
I think the concern about EV’s leading to a massive spike in CO2 emissions is unfounded.
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