Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest result from Newspoll lands slightly at the upper end of the government’s recent form.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest result from Newspoll records Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the last poll (which was three weeks ago rather than the usual two, owing to Easter). Labor and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 35% and 9%, with the Coalition and One Nation steady on 36% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 32% and down two on disapproval to 57%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 33% and down one to 53%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-32 to 42-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #1012 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 1:48 pm

    Simon Aussie Katich @ #1008 Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 – 1:38 pm

    **Channel Nine urged by financial analysts UBS to drop loss-making cricket broadcast coverage – ABCNews**
    This is a bad thing?

    Simon,
    I read yesterday that Channel 9 were gearing up to take the BBL coverage from Channel 10. So, I guess it’s two fingers to UBS from Channel 9.

    That would be a shame, 10’s coverage of BBL and the commentary is an order of magnitude better than the 9 commentary.

  3. phoenixred @ #1038 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 3:16 pm

    For us on Fixed Wireless NBN : needed now
    NBN Co achieves superfast broadband speeds with fixed wireless in a demonstration of capacity not yet available
    NBN Co has trialled a superfast broadband in Ballarat, that delivered speeds 20 times faster than normal fixed wireless — but it won’t be available anytime soon.
    Achieving 1.1 gigabits per second, that would allow you to download a high quality Blu-Ray movie in just five seconds.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-04-26/nbn-achieves-superfast-broadband-speeds-with-fixed-wireless/8473024

    That’s great in a laboratory somewhere. What can it do with a couple of thousand people connected to it in real world conditions (hills, trees, bad weather, concrete)?

  4. I’ve never been religious. I can recall, as an 11-year old, having refused to go to Sunday school, being sent to the big church by my mother, she being a devout believer then and ever since. There was I, sitting in the back row, watching the grown-ups, aching with boredom, reading the psalms and the prayers, listening to the lesson…and thinking no-one in their right mind could believe any of that nonsense. Can’t they see, I asked myself, that it is all just make-believe; that it’s all just story telling?

    I thought the adults were all play-acting. Largely, I still think they are doing just that.

  5. An apology by the ABC to Peter Dutton:

    “…We would like to express our profound regret that the facts conveyed by our journalists upset the Minister’s fragile sensibilities to such an extent. It was never our intention, when reporting on the incident on Manus Island, to expose an upstanding member of the Australian Cabinet as a crybaby of such disturbing magnitude.”

    And so on… https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/26/abcs-official-apology-to-peter-dutton/

  6. I have a frien in inner north Brisbane who recently moved from Telstra cable to NBN FTTH.

    Download speed went from 113 to 94..

    BUT upload went from 1.4 to 36 AND much lower ping time.

    Subjective experience: faster

  10. Briefly
    Aching boredom is a frigging understatement.
    I’d never been to church/chapel till I became a boarder at school in the UK in the mid 70’s. Having no idea of what I was mean’t to be doing/saying/singing and worse being an Australian I soon fell foul of the “masters”. In winter I’d wear my flano pjs under my suit, it was freezing in those old stone buildings. Often I was caught, no doubt because I looked like the Michelin man & sent to weeks in detention. It least it was warm there.

  11. Oh dear, once again Dutton’s utterances have backfired:

    A Papua New Guinean politician, whose account of a shooting at the Manus Island detention centre was rejected by Australian Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, has been reinstated as a Member of Parliament by the PNG Supreme Court.

    This week, his comments about what led to the Good Friday shooting at the detention centre were at odds with Mr Dutton’s view.

    The Immigration Minister said Mr Knight was a “discredited witness” and incorrectly said he had been “convicted of fraud”.

    Mr Dutton demanded an apology from media outlets — including the ABC — that had interviewed Mr Knight.

    But PNG’s Chief Justice Sir Salamo Injia found there were no allegations Mr Knight obtained a personal benefit from the boat purchase and said there were serious concerns with how he had been cited by the PNG Leadership Tribunal.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-26/manus-island-shooting-mp-reinstated-following-dutton-claims/8473676

  15. citizen @ #1161 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 7:03 pm

    Oh dear, once again Dutton’s utterances have backfired:

    A Papua New Guinean politician, whose account of a shooting at the Manus Island detention centre was rejected by Australian Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, has been reinstated as a Member of Parliament by the PNG Supreme Court.
    This week, his comments about what led to the Good Friday shooting at the detention centre were at odds with Mr Dutton’s view.
    The Immigration Minister said Mr Knight was a “discredited witness” and incorrectly said he had been “convicted of fraud”.
    Mr Dutton demanded an apology from media outlets — including the ABC — that had interviewed Mr Knight.
    But PNG’s Chief Justice Sir Salamo Injia found there were no allegations Mr Knight obtained a personal benefit from the boat purchase and said there were serious concerns with how he had been cited by the PNG Leadership Tribunal.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-26/manus-island-shooting-mp-reinstated-following-dutton-claims/8473676

    The potato is the only one in this episode who seems to have been discredited.
    But what would you expect from a rooted vegetable?

  18. Sky News Australia
    41 mins ·
    Former Foreign Minister Bob Carr: US President Donald J. Trump is not learning a key lesson about foreign policy: you shouldn’t taunt your enemies, especially if they are ‘maniacs’ like the current North Korean regime. MORE: http://bit.ly/2pfVnUB

  23. The interests of rich old white guys in the Liberal Party trumps the public interest every time. With modest super tax reforms, Kelly O’Dwyer dared to cross them:

    “They’re the reason we are doing nothing about climate change, the reason why we are now a laggard in the west on same sex marriage, the reason why we have created a housing affordability nightmare in our major cities. And super may well be the last time this government dares to upset them.”

  25. darn @ #1058 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 3:56 pm

    abba88
    Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 3:35 pm
    bemused: re your #935
    What was exposed last night was your narcissistic personality disorder, and your incapability of understanding when you had been gratuitously and deliberately offensive to another contributor to this blog.

    Without wanting to buy into the argument on either side, isn’t it one of the unwritten rules on this site that we don’t attribute mental illness to other bloggers? If it isn’t, it should be.

    The real problem is that the Bludgers are getting restless from anticipation:
    The Liberals in WA have just been given the biggest hiding in that state’s election history, and I think the third biggest in Australian history;
    There isn’t an imminent election anywhere in Australia;
    The Federal L/NP are one byelection or defection away from minority government, and;
    The Federal L/NP are heading for a hiding that is going to rival the one given to the WA state Liberals.

    In short, unable to burn energy on the campaign trail, we’ve forgotten who the real enemy is and we’re sniping at each other.

  26. The interests of rich old white guys in the Liberal Party trumps the public interest every time.

    Remember the Big Swinging Dicks from a few years ago, gunning then for JBishop?

  29. I have question for one of the more electrically knowledgeable bludgers than me on electrical vehicles. We’ve heard all sorts of hype about EV’s achieving a significant market share in the next few years. Current EV’s have battery capacities upto 110kW (a Telsa vehicle not yet available in Australia), which is enormous amount of electricity compared to what an average house uses in Australia in a day (about 20kW).

    Lets assume for a moment that owners of EV’s are going to recharge their vehicles during off peak times, which in WA is 10pm – 8am Monday – Friday and all weekend. Having even a few hundred people on any given distribution substation drawing anyting upto 110kW in the space of a few hours on week days is going to put a massive strain on the grid.

    Has anyone thought through how the electricity grid is going to cope with this massive increase in demand?

  33. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/as-chechnya-tortures-and-kills-gay-men-putin-shrugs/2017/04/24/12f6a9b0-2697-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?utm_term=.94ca93fec636

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/jean-luc-melenchon-germany-putin-french-presidential-race

    https://qz.com/961177/french-election-2017-marine-lepen-and-emmanuel-macron-lead-but-the-big-winner-in-the-french-election-will-be-vladimir-putin/

    Melenchon, Le Pen, Putin….the enemies of free Europe.

  34. Well there you have it, straight from the horse’s mouth, and a very direct and categorical statement that she has no plans, never did and won’t challenge O’Dwyer for Higgins.
    https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/10154514958921728/

    Credlin also takes a swipe at the party’s going backwards when it comes to women representatives, but insists the party can meet its target of 50% women in parliament in just 8 years, even though they only have something like 16% now.

  35. Grimace

    Given the difference between the amount of power which can be generated at full peak and offpeak usage, I don’t think electric cars being charged at those times would put a strain on the system.

    Of course, if it did, that would change our definition of ‘off peak’ . This would alter the pricing structure for electricity, which would mean that car owners would no longer charge their cars at those times…

  36. fess,

    The Libs usually pre-select their women candidates in marginal seats. That means whenever the electoral voting tide goes out, the Libs lose their women MHRs. So, women never get to build that base of experience that makes them promotable to the Ministry, Cabinet or PM.

    Sure there are a few exceptions like J Bishop. Credlin’s view seems to be that promoting more women in to Liberal Party parliamentary ranks is not achieved by knocking off women candidates in safe seats. She’s probably interested in being pre-selected. But, it’s more likely to be in another safe seat like Menzies (Kevin Andrews is the current Memeber).

  37. [Lets assume for a moment that owners of EV’s are going to recharge their vehicles during off peak times, which in WA is 10pm – 8am Monday – Friday and all weekend. Having even a few hundred people on any given distribution substation drawing anyting upto 110kW in the space of a few hours on week days is going to put a massive strain on the grid.

    Has anyone thought through how the electricity grid is going to cope with this massive increase in demand?]

    IIRC a typical household single-phase circuit is capable of delivering at most 30kW.

    But you certainly don’t charge a EV at 110kW. Heck, you only briefly discharge them at 110kW, when you want to accelerate real fast…

    Other than that, yes, there is lot of work being done on controlling the current drawn by EVs on distribution networks. A particularly neat approach is to use local voltage measurements (i.e. at you home) and knowledge of the background load at the zone substation (from historical data, freely available) to estimate the current flowing through transformer. Even linear regression is remarkably accurate!

  38. God damn the firewall.

    To recap;

    If you need 110 kwh, and the average household supply can deliver 30 kw, let’s assume 20 kw, that would mean that the flat battery could be recharged in less than six hours, as far as I can tell.

    Is there something I am missing?

  39. The Libs usually pre-select their women candidates in marginal seats. That means whenever the electoral voting tide goes out, the Libs lose their women MHRs.

    Yep, and the stark reality is that they will never achieve that 50% target by 2025 without quotas, which they continue to shun.

  40. Sky News Australia
    15 mins ·
    #BREAKING Treasurer Scott Morrison will sell his budget to voters on #pmlive from Gosford on Monday May 15th.

    300 people in a people’s forum, but first in first served. So central coast PBers, here’s your chance to be among those who get to question the Treasurer about the budget.

  41. don @ #1188 Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 – 9:17 pm

    If you need 110 kwh, and the average household supply can deliver 30 kw, let’s assume 20 kw, that would mean that the flat battery could be recharged in less than six hours, as far as I can tell.

    Is there something I am missing?

    For starters, I think it would be generally uncommon for EV users to be fully discharging their battery-packs every day (a Tesla Model 3 has a range of 300+ km, which should be well above the distance traveled by the average person on your typical day). If the battery pack isn’t fully discharged, then you don’t need to put 110 kWh back into it. I’d venture a guess that ~30 kWh/day would be more typical (if not still towards the high end).

    The ‘garage charger’ offered by Tesla uses a 14-50 NEMA outlet, which can deliver a maximum of 12kW to the vehicle and would need a little over 9 hours to charge a fully depleted 110kWh battery pack (assuming no efficiency losses; so realistically allow at least 10 hours).

    Also, a nice graphic here:

    https://www.teslaowners.org.au/charging

    It looks like apart from supercharger stations, Tesla owners are limited to a maximum charging rate of 11kW per vehicle.

  42. grimace @ #1181 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    Sorry everyone, in my post above kW should be kWh

    You are assuming a discharged or nearly discharged battery being charged. That is consistent with people filling up with petrol when their tank gets low.
    But if you can just plug in each night you may not draw all that much to top up your battery.
    Also, if you have the car parked at home during the day at any time, you may simply draw on otherwise unused solar power for which any feed-in tariff you would otherwise get is minimal.

  44. Religion survived the discovery that the Earth was round; that it wasn’t at the centre of the Universe (which has no centre anyway); the theory of evolution and it’s acceptance as truth and common sense; that humanity is part of the animal kingdom, descended from apes; the big bang theory… and so on and so on. It will have no trouble with alien life. Various branches would incorporate it into their philosophy/mythology or deny it. Some (e.g Buddhism) will have less trouble than others (fundamentalist Christianity).

  45. Religion is great at selectively denying historical fact whenever it suits the prevailing ‘fashion’ of belief. It’ll find a way to deny that it ever believed in human exclusivity.

  47. Electric vehicles are expected to increase our total electricity consumption by up to 40%. Obviously, if the take up of electric vehicles is too fast then most of this increase will have to come from burning more coal, or (if we are lucky) possibly gas, leading to increases in C02 emissions. So electric cars are not such a “green” alternative – at least not in a country that generates so much of its electricity by burning coal. It would be a different story in a country where electricity was mostly generated by renewables … but that ain’t Australia anytime in the next 30 years or so.

    Fortunately, those who forecast that electric vehicles will replace fossil-fueled vehicles at such a dramatic rate are just dreaming – the actual take up rate will be far, far less, and it will probably be slow enough for the growth in renewables to just about cope.

    Or at least we can hope so.

  48. LU,
    It would be better if home power systems, including EV chargers talked directly to the power network’s servers rather than making rough estimates. And that ties in nicely to other forms of control.

  49. those who forecast that electric vehicles will replace fossil-fueled vehicles at such a dramatic rate are just dreaming

    And you’re just bullshitting as usual P1. There are actually people who make a living doing the estimates. They may of course be wrong, but you’re not even wrong.

  50. cud chewer @ #1199 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 11:23 pm

    those who forecast that electric vehicles will replace fossil-fueled vehicles at such a dramatic rate are just dreaming

    And you’re just bullshitting as usual P1. There are actually people who make a living doing the estimates. They may of course be wrong, but you’re not even wrong.

    LOL … if you are not careful you will go on the trolls STFU list.

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