Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest result from Newspoll lands slightly at the upper end of the government’s recent form.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest result from Newspoll records Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the last poll (which was three weeks ago rather than the usual two, owing to Easter). Labor and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 35% and 9%, with the Coalition and One Nation steady on 36% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 32% and down two on disapproval to 57%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 33% and down one to 53%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-32 to 42-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Correct, DG.
    The headline article in The Oz should read:
    “Despite the truly desperate best-efforts of PM T, the LNP, and all the Murdoch Rags, the average Australian remained completely unimpressed. The primary vote of both the LNP and PHON remained stuck at a pathetic 36% and 10% respectively. ”
    Call the removalists, Malcolm, for you are yesterday’s man.

  2. The movements in primary votes for Labor and Greens, and the various approval ratings, are so tiny they could be called statistical noise.
    The cheer squad’s attempts to paint it as a new dawn should be treated with ignore, as the populace has ignored them these past weeks.
    The people want real solutions to the housing crisis we watch our children struggle with each day.
    Offering $1B to an Indian coal miner to help build his railway doesn’t help my adult kids find a tiny apartment they can afford to rent in Sydney within commuting distance to work.
    Lived experience trumps BS every time Malcolm.

  3. Didn’t I predict 52-48?

    I think though, like Rocky and Bullwinkle, Malcolm Turnbull is going to find it increasingly hard to pull things out of his top hat before each Newspoll. Eventually the tiger he tries to pull out of his hat when the rabbits aren’t working for him anymore will bite him, hard. Remember what the other journos said today on Insiders when Niki Savva intimated Newspoll would be better for Turnbull? They said it would just make Tony Abbott more determined to bring him down because of the death roll they are in together.

    And this Newspoll may be an improvement, but the Coalition still aren’t the ones with a ‘5’ in front of their 2PP and their Primary Vote is still woeful and One Nation are the tiger that is biting 10% of them off on their Right flank.

    As the Chinese are probably saying tonight, after Turnbull tried to do his Little Big Man impersonation and chide them when Pence was around,
    ‘May you live in interesting times, Mr Turnbull’.

  4. Well the ABC are spinning Newspoll as a big positive for the government with this line:
    ‘The Coalition have maintained their Primary Vote lead over Labor, 36% to 35%, in the latest Newspoll and Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead over Bill Shorten in the Preferred Prime Minister rating.’

    *Sigh*

  5. Trump Pal Sean Hannity Accused Of Sexual Harassment As Fox News Scandal Grows

    A former Fox News contributor has accused Sean Hannity of sexual harassment after he invited her back to his hotel room and then never booked her for his show again after she declined.

    The Fox News sexual harassment scandal isn’t limited to Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly. People need to keep asking questions because it is clear that there is an entire culture of sexual harassment and illegal treatment of women at the network.

    People need to take a closer look at Sean Hannity because the scandal at Fox News is showing no signs of slowing down.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/23/trump-pal-sean-hannity-accused-sexual-harassment-fox-news-scandal-grows.html

  6. Trump Is Having A Real Time Breakdown Over The Collapse Of His Mexico Wall

    America is watching Trump have a real time meltdown as the President sounded unstable while demanding that Congress fund his collapsing Mexico wall plan.

    Mexico isn’t paying for the wall, and neither is Congress.

    Trump’s wall lies are collapsing around him, and we are witnessing a president who is melting down.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/23/trump-real-time-breakdown-collapse-mexico-wall.html

  7. Is it just my jaundiced view, or has the vacuousness of all the MSM reporting of political events reached peak inconsequentiality? With luck, the koala will piss on Pence, The Dutton-the-Terrible-Tuber will declare war on PNG, May will invade the Shetland Islands and Macron will bore Le Pen to death. MT will still spin each of these events as victory over the Best Opposition Leader Ever (no, not Bill – the re-cycled one) every Thursday before Newspoll, while his electile dysfunction gently weeps.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    So it looks like Macron and le Pen will face off on 7 May for the French presidency. Apparently lthe Euro has surged after the release of the exit polls.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/macron-wins-french-election-first-round-20170423-gvqwex.html
    The elimination of the two mainstream French parties from the first round of presidential elections on Sunday showed the deep malaise of French society, a member of centrist Emmanuel Macron’s campaign said on Sunday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/macrons-victory-shows-deep-malaise-in-french-society-20170423-gvqwik.html
    In a cracker of an article Katherine Murphy looks at the duelling prime ministers within the Coalition.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/22/duelling-prime-ministers-turnbull-and-abbott-locked-in-a-coalition-death-spiral
    There’s just one man standing between Tony Abbott and a return to the prime ministership. That man is Mathias Cormann says Pula Matthewson.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/21/mathias-cormann-tony-abbott/
    Here’s Urban Wronski’s weekly column.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/04/23/turnbull-dog-whistles-on-aussie-values-while-trump-bluffs-and-blusters/
    The Australian’s David Crowe is on to the government’s “management by Newspoll” game. Google.
    /opinion/newspoll-coalition-must-break-cycle-or-itll-break-them/news-story/6a250e1901e1215becf547a6aa9015b5
    Adam Gartell on Dutton’s stellar performance on Insiders yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-have-facts-you-dont-immigration-minister-peter-dutton-stands-by-manus-claims-in-fiery-interview-20170422-gvqhxd.html
    Michelle Grattan says how Dutton comes out of this dispute about facts is particularly important, because it goes to the character of the conservative Liberal from Queensland who is touted as a possible future leader.
    https://theconversation.com/how-dutton-comes-out-of-dispute-about-manus-claim-goes-to-the-question-of-character-76562
    Trump nears the 100-day mark of his administration as the least popular chief executive in modern times. Rather unsurprising.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trumps-approval-at-record-low-in-first-100-days-20170423-gvqw12.html
    Is the US heading for one of their government shutdowns?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/paul-ryan-tells-congress-colleagues-that-us-government-shutdown-will-be-avoided-20170423-gvqjdc.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    Mark Kenny says that in the absence of decisive progress by Beijing, which has allowed this situation to reach crisis point, the US may be left with no choice but to act pre-emptively. In all of our interests.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/north-korean-threats-will-leave-alliance-countries-little-choice-20170423-gvqpxh.html
    Labor is demanding that the immigration minister Peter Dutton apologise for “irresponsible and outrageous” commentary about the origins of a violent disturbance on Manus Island.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/24/labor-demands-peter-dutton-apologise-for-outrageous-comments-on-manus-violence
    Our teachers are being burned.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/teachers-burning-out-as-they-take-on-classes-outside-expertise-acer-report-20170422-gvqi08.html
    No wonder people don’t like dealing with lawyers!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/judge-blasts-cynical-sydney-law-firm-in-court-battle-over-legal-bill-20170421-gvpfgv.html
    How does Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull expect migrants to achieve functional standards of speech when most Australians can’t even pronounce the name of our own country? Dean Frenkel puts an interesting point forward.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-should-immigrants-speak-perfect-english-when-australians-cant-20170420-gvoohq.html
    Law expert George Williams looks at what might flow from the recent High Court decisions on MP disqualifications.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/more-mps-could-be-caught-in-disqualification-trap-20170423-gvql1i.html
    Michael West examines the Chevron/ATO decision.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/hornswoggler-chevron-hit-by-historic-court-case/
    Eryk Bagshaw looks at the big elephant in the room when it comes to education. There are private schools that are clearly overfunded from the public purse. He uses health funding to make his point.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/the-upsidedown-school-funding-debate-is-hurting-students-20170418-gvmqkj.html
    Network Ten goes further into the doldrums.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/network-ten-market-cap-falls-to-170-million-20170421-gvpyve.html

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Home battery sharing can have great benefit but it could lead to further inequality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-power-generation-home-battery-sharing-could-build-virtual-public-utilities-20170416-gvlvnr.html
    Mark Metherell from Concerned Catholics writes that in the wake of the truths exposed by the Royal Commission the church must change its ways.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/royal-commissions-truths-demand-that-we-catholics-must-change-our-church-20170423-gvqkq3.html
    The Australian Olympic Committee is in need of a good clean out – starting from the top.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/time-for-culture-change-at-australian-olympic-committee-20170421-gvpjph.html
    Why Morrison is playing down the budget.
    https://theconversation.com/the-real-reason-scott-morrison-is-playing-down-the-budget-76311
    There was plenty to admire about the scientists’ protest. But it’s increasingly clear that their greatest skill – unearthing the truth – is not enough to win a culture war.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/23/scientists-truth-culture-war-donald-trump-pope
    Oh oh! Now the Fox News “harassment cleanskin” Sean Hannity has been accused.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/23/trump-pal-sean-hannity-accused-sexual-harassment-fox-news-scandal-grows.html
    Amanda Vanstone goes in to bat for the rich.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/before-you-go-hating-the-rich-get-your-facts-straight-20170421-gvpiuu.html
    Nick O’Malley examines the Australia Institute’s study of PHON’s performance in the WA election. It’s not good news.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-institute-examines-pauline-hansons-one-nations-performance-in-wa-20170423-gvqolt.html
    The Turnbull government has abandoned plans to slash millions of dollars in funding from community legal centres after coming under intense pressure from lawyers, Labor and the states. Of Course Soapy blames Labor for the cuts he made last year!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-budget-2017-george-brandis-to-reverse-community-legal-centre-cuts-20170423-gvqlmj.html

  11. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    This ice crim’s wife is about to lose her lifestyle as prosecutors seek to seize the proceeds of crime.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/drug-kingpin-rocco-arico-could-lose-10-million-in-unexplained-wealth-20170422-gvq9mf.html
    Jobs ageism is thriving – a personal account.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/it-appears-that-i-am-on-the-workforce-scrap-heap-20170420-gvowud.html
    Doctors and the medical community need to take vaccination hesitancy seriously, or risk seeing immunisation rates fall, researchers have found.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/address-vaccination-concerns-to-keep-immunisation-rates-up-20170422-gvq85v.html
    By the end of the year, NIB — which insures more than one million people — plans to expose overrated medicos by making charges and outcomes public. We are beng ripped of by a lot of medical professionals. Google.
    /business/doctors-are-charging-some-patients-based-on-perceived-wealth-according-to-nib/news-story/38da9a02ad9c5a50388e0cd1e772695d
    Michael Gordon and Alex Ettinghausen have visited Manus Island for this special feature.
    http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2017/waiting-for-america/
    Another NSW Liberal spiv goes down the drain!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-ryde-councillor-artin-etmekdjian-resigns-from-liberal-party-over-tax-fraud-conviction-20170421-gvpv90.html

    Cathy Wilcox goes after Potatohead.

    And so does David Rowe!

    WWIII toupées.

    Jon Kudelka eaves drop on North Korea after Mesma’s statements.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b433bf0cfa4cbe64fbbb296fd9f5a2e6

  12. “‘Well the ABC are spinning Newspoll as a big positive for the government with this line:
    ‘The Coalition have maintained their Primary Vote lead over Labor, 36% to 35%, in the latest Newspoll and Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead over Bill Shorten in the Preferred Prime Minister rating.’”

    Well who woulda thought!
    Was it ‘outside’ the margin of error? That’s normally the case when the move’s towards the government.

  13. It does seem like a pretty good result for the government, they havent had a better newspoll since the 2 polls immediately after the election.

    And that Turnbulls personal approval rating improved is good for the government considering it all looks like its falling apart around him, maybe he can hold it up for a bit longer.

    But having a good week doesnt mean much when they have been on the back foot for 6 months.

  14. the conservative Liberal from Queensland who is touted as a possible future leader.

    Who’s touting him, and on what possible grounds does Potatohead qualify as potential PM? That’s what I want to know. Was it started as a joke and the MSM are repeating it until it comes true?

  15. Ag0044

    From my own experience, luck and contacts count for more than qualifications. Ironic that we are all going to live longer, yet young recruiters think a person is over the hill at 40.

  16. Morning all. Thanks once again, you have to question if the 457 visa waffle was all to influence this Newspoll. You have to think Turnbull is being given the polling dates. Also once again, Malcolm’s numbers will decline once people realise the reality that the Liberals presided over the visa rorting, and are rebadging the scheme more than fixing it, while potentially deterring people with genuine skills.

  17. Fran on the LNP media morning show doing her best to cover for the Spud. It’s only​ some “locals” who have “questioned” the Spud’s account.

  18. I think Malcolm could still make small tactical gains on issue specific gesturing like the visas saga. But again, the sugar hit wears off when people see the substance.

    The budget will be the real test of Turnbull’s ability to run the country and fix problems like housing. There is no evidence he will pass that test. Have a good day all.

  19. Oakeshott Country
    #380 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 7:52 pm
    People laughed when Brandis said that neutering 18C was what the Anzacs fought for but he was correct.

    At the end of the war PM Hughes famously addressed the troops and said that through their sacrifice they, as distinct from the wobblies and shirkers who opposed conscription,

    The Japanese wanted New Guinea ceeded to them after WW1 to go with the Northern Marianas (Guam etc) but Hughes persisted and ‘got’ New Guinea.

    A good move by Hughes given subsequent events in WW2.

    Billy Hughes was ‘…cold as sea-ice, vain as a peacock, cruel as a butcher bird, sly as a weasel and mean as cat shit’ according to Tom Hungerford his private secretary later in life.”

  20. Peter Dutton follows the Peter Reith tradition of outright fabrication and cover-up. Does that qualify him as a future Lib Leader?

  21. Dave

    The Japanese wanted New Guinea ceeded to them after WW1 to go with the Northern Marianas (Guam etc) but Hughes persisted and ‘got’ New Guinea.

    The Japanese were on a loser with this claim.

    What would make them think the US would give up any of their 1898 ‘wins’ from the Spanish.

  22. The Newspoll obviously hasn’t influenced Bolt’s view of Turnbull (DT headline):

    Sorry Mal, you’re the real problem
    THIS war can’t go on. Either Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott must go, or the distracted Liberals will be smashed, writes Andrew Bolt.

  23. The Turnbull government has abandoned plans to slash millions of dollars in funding from community legal centres after coming under intense pressure from lawyers, Labor and the states.

    And so the pre-budget leaks are starting.

  24. When you’re a PM and a Treasurer in deep doo doo, arrange with Murdoch to do a front page on “dole bludgers” (DT headline)

    Crackdown to strip bludgers of welfare
    EXCLUSIVE: Layabouts who refuse to work for the dole or look for jobs will finally be stripped of their welfare payments under a federal Budget crackdown to stop bludgers ripping off taxpayers.

  25. Well one up for the polling pre French election, if anything, some ‘shy lefties’ with the ‘shy tories’ now out loud and proud post Brexit/Trump.

    From 45.15m voters (93.84%l): Macron 23.77%, Le Pen 21.70%, Fillon 19.98%, Melenchon 19.40% – French Interior Min at 00:31am #France2017

  26. ‘THIS war can’t go on. Either Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott must go, or the distracted Liberals will be smashed, writes Andrew Bolt.’

    Of course, what this should read is:

    “Both Turnbull and Abbott must go and the distracted Liberals will be smashed.”

    They (the conservatives who are presently driving, or trying to drive, the Liberal party) don’t get it: their ratings have very little to do with disunity, or with poor performance, but with what they are trying to achieve.

    Indeed, if either leader had performed ‘better’ in implementing the conservative agenda, the polls would probably be worse for the Liberals then they are. To some extent, the government is being cushioned by its own ineptitude.

  27. Oh, Crikey.

    A week of sprouting “Aussie values” and a crackdown on 457 visas appears to have paid in the polling, at least.

    Two things wrong with this:
    1. Polling change just MoE.
    2. It’s ‘spouting’, not ‘sprouting’.

  28. CTar

    What would make them think the US would give up any of their 1898 ‘wins’ from the Spanish.

    The Battle of Tsushima in 1905 probably when they thrashed the Russian navy. Their ambition for empire, resources etc ramped up from there but they had been leeching/ occupyingparts of China, Korea and Formosa even before that.

    Interestingly Woodrow Wilson was fairly anti Hughes and even his being at Versailles in the first place having asked publicly “what is he (Hughes) doing here anyway”.

    To which Hughes replied he ‘represented the 60,000 dead Australians’

    US had 53,402 killed in WW1.

    But your point is still correct.

  29. KRudd on CNN re’ NK:

    KRudd numbering things. No.2 is work with our ‘Chinese friends’ (aka the ‘ratf#ckers’).

    Starve NK of oil and pressure the Chinese to secure a diplomatic solution is about all he had to say..

  30. Good Morning

    Given all the effort put into governing for Newspoll thats an abysmal result for the LNP.

    Its very last year of the Gillard minority government territory.

  31. lizzie @ #33 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 9:08 am

    Oh, Crikey.

    A week of sprouting “Aussie values” and a crackdown on 457 visas appears to have paid in the polling, at least.

    Two things wrong with this:
    1. Polling change just MoE.
    2. It’s ‘spouting’, not ‘sprouting’.

    And you accuse me of being picky… 😉

  32. IMO, the core issue with the aftermath of WW1 is that it reinforced the Japanese notion of partial rather than total war to the finish.
    WWI repeated the pattern where the Japanese went to a war and gathered some territory in the resolution of the war.
    They went into the Pacific War with the same mind set.

  33. For a Monday morning giggle (if you can stomach it) Read Dolts latest contribution and the cooments that follow. Google
    /news/opinion/andrew-bolt-on-the-liberals-either-tony-abbott-or-malcolm-turnbull-must-go/news-story/d82f9008e057108700c4e96d192d7707

  34. MarkTregonning: @Thesismis @Forthleft2 #LestWeForget to capitalise on a marketing opportunity to recruit for the next pointless war

  35. zoomster @ #31 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 8:50 am

    ‘THIS war can’t go on. Either Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott must go, or the distracted Liberals will be smashed, writes Andrew Bolt.’
    Of course, what this should read is:
    “Both Turnbull and Abbott must go and the distracted Liberals will be smashed.”
    They (the conservatives who are presently driving, or trying to drive, the Liberal party) don’t get it: their ratings have very little to do with disunity, or with poor performance, but with what they are trying to achieve.
    Indeed, if either leader had performed ‘better’ in implementing the conservative agenda, the polls would probably be worse for the Liberals then they are. To some extent, the government is being cushioned by its own ineptitude.

    Agree Zoomster,
    The Senate has saved them some pain in this area.
    For all their whinging , it has provided a buffer for them by not passing the more odorous measures in past Budgets.

  36. boerwar @ #43 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 9:30 am

    …. the Japanese …. went into the Pacific War with the same mind set.

    Yes. They wanted and needed the resources of Asia in general and were progressively seizing them.

    FDR responded to their aggression in China, Korea and Formosa with what we call today trade sanctions. Japan was also making plays on taking Vietnam at the sametime.

    Japan responded to FDR with even more aggression and WW2 started.

    With the benefit of hindsight both Hitler and Japan were allowed to go too far without being challenged although in Europe people still had the slaughter of WW1 in their minds.

    How do you make the right call about taking action in such circumstances – a question as valid today as it was back then.

    A starting point might be to have the leader of the world’s dominate superpower as reasonable sane and competent.

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