Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest result from Newspoll lands slightly at the upper end of the government’s recent form.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest result from Newspoll records Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the last poll (which was three weeks ago rather than the usual two, owing to Easter). Labor and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 35% and 9%, with the Coalition and One Nation steady on 36% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 32% and down two on disapproval to 57%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 33% and down one to 53%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-32 to 42-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 25
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  2. lizzie @ #33 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 9:08 am

    Oh, Crikey.

    A week of sprouting “Aussie values” and a crackdown on 457 visas appears to have paid in the polling, at least.

    Two things wrong with this:
    1. Polling change just MoE.
    2. It’s ‘spouting’, not ‘sprouting’.

    So,

    A week of spouting “Aussie values” and a crackdown on 457 visas appears not to have sprouted results in the polling.

  5. TroyBramston: Coalition primary flatlining at dismal 36% and gaining 1% on 2PP but still behind 48-52% is hardly a sign of recovery #Newspoll @australian

    retweeted by Malcolm Farr.

    So even Newscon are not buying their own spin.

  7. bk @ #11 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 6:58 am

    Home battery sharing can have great benefit but it could lead to further inequality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-power-generation-home-battery-sharing-could-build-virtual-public-utilities-20170416-gvlvnr.html

    This article is little more than a paid advertisement for Sonnen, a German battery manufacturer, and competitor to Telsa. Australia is an incredibly lucrative market for these battery suppliers because of our astonishingly expensive electricity prices. Products that are still commercially unviable elsewhere in the world can profitably be sold here, provided you can just convince enough people to drink the Kool Aid.

  9. BiGD
    within MoE but consistent enough with previous attempts to improve polling by patriotism to say it worked. But piddly enough an improvement to question the long term benefit for this bunch of blithering blundering blaggards.

  12. Simon Aussie Katich

    I hope the miniscule improvement in the poll doesn’t encourage the Coal to think that their immigration policies are popular with the majority.

  15. guytaur:

    In BK’s morning wrap up there is a link to a pre-budget leak that the cuts to legal aid funding will be reversed in the budget.

  19. simon aussie katich @ #59 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 9:57 am

    BiGD
    within MoE but consistent enough with previous attempts to improve polling by patriotism to say it worked. But piddly enough an improvement to question the long term benefit for this bunch of blithering blundering blaggards.

    lizzie @ #62 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 10:00 am

    Simon Aussie Katich
    I hope the miniscule improvement in the poll doesn’t encourage the Coal to think that their immigration policies are popular with the majority.

    SAK,
    But how long will the sugar hit last. Will they need another one for the next Newspoll just to maintain this blip?
    Lizzie,
    I hope they do, it might encourage them, in their desperation, to do something completely batsh!t crazy, 🙂

  20. Lizzie, I fear thats all the Coalition have got.

    Or will Morrison deliver a meaningful, fair and groundbreaking budget that sets the foundation for moving Australia toward an egalitarian and prosperous future?

    boom

    tish

  21. D
    ‘A starting point might be to have the leader of the world’s dominate superpower as reasonable sane and competent.’
    Unfortunately the big battalions are not always on the side of Truth, Justice and Democracy.
    At the start of WWII it was arguable that ALL of the colonial powers were running despotic empires based ultimately on the death sanction. (Australia, despite aspirations to anti-Hitlerite nobility) was part and parcel of this global system of racist economic, social and political oppression. It was essentially profoundly anti-democratic.
    Stalin, our major ally in Europe ran a regime that by the end of the thirties was similar in most major evil respects to that of Hitler. (Once again Australian war hagiographers including practically all the MSM tend to omit the bestial nature of our major ally in Europe). In effect in Europe we were bit part supporters of a war that led directly to the despotic enslavement of half of Europe by Stalin.
    In China the issue was scrambled by warlordism and the communists but it is challenging to argue that we were fighting on behalf of democracy in Asia – particularly when our British, French and Dutch allies were absolutely determined to re-subjugate their colonies.

  23. lizzie @ #68 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 10:10 am

    Guytaur
    And Brandis is pretending that he’s giving extra money this year.

    Bbbbbbbbut he is.
    Classic Liberal back flip with pike.
    Announce a cut in funding in two years time in one Budget and then restore the funding in the next Budget.
    Result, you have increased funding.
    You know it makes sense! 🙂

  24. rhwombat @ #8 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 6:55 am

    Is it just my jaundiced view, or has the vacuousness of all the MSM reporting of political events reached peak inconsequentiality?

    ……

    Well next to no comment from the media regarding Pence looking like he had sucked a lemon when saying the US would ‘honour’ the AS deal but they didn’t have to like it.

    Petulance.

    Pence would have been better off just confirming the intention to honour the agreement and left it at that. Wasn’t ‘goodwill’ one of the reasons for his visit ?

    But if thats the response of the US ‘brains trust’ – of Australia’s ‘great hope’ in times of war & crisis – then look out.

    Then in todays AFR Pence trots out the following garbage, which is allowed to go through to the keeper by a fawning media –

    “US President Donald Trump’s “massive” tax reduction plan, details of which are expected on Thursday, will have direct benefits for Australia, Vice-President Mike Pence says.

    He met privately with the chief executives of Westfield, Macquarie Group, Lendlease and Austral before publicly praising them for helping to fuel a US-Australia economic relationship worth a “staggering” $1.5 trillion.

    “The truth is that a stronger American economy also means a stronger economy for all of our trading partners, including Australia,” Mr Pence said.

    “Rest assured, our tax reform will make the strongest economy in the world stronger still, and it will benefit the American people, American workers, and it will benefit the economy of Australia.”

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/donald-trumps-massive-tax-plan-to-benefit-australia-says-mike-pence-20170423-gvqjcz#

    Yeag right – So we are expect to swallow such nonsense?

    A consequence of too much Australian arse licking and forelock tugging by our political so called “leaders”.

    Where is pontificating Pete Hartcher or Mark Kenny to spin their blarney ?

  26. simon aussie katich @ #70 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 10:12 am

    Lizzie, I fear thats all the Coalition have got.
    Or will Morrison deliver a meaningful, fair and groundbreaking budget that sets the foundation for moving Australia toward an egalitarian and prosperous future?
    boom
    tish

    Or will Morrison admit he has NFI and resign from Parliament to find sanctuary in “La La La Happy Clappingland”? 🙂

  27. Cutting the legal funds would be yet another suicidal move by the LNP. The measures would almost certainly get blocked in the Senate and then the libs would have another black hole in their budget to go along with the one from the 13/14 budget and a few others from subsequent budgets. They would look even more incompetent than they already do.
    Multiple black holes in close proximity do not a stable system make.

  28. Dave
    The forgotten phrase concerning the refugees was that America will accept them wtte “after our usual immigration assessments”.
    Media don’t seem to have picked up on this, and it means that any number might still be refused entry to the US.

  29. That’s enough dealing with the infantile morons that are our Government.

    Time to lift the intellectual standards and go and teach English to Kindergarten kids. 🙂

  31. lizzie @ #78 Monday, April 24, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Dave
    The forgotten phrase concerning the refugees was that America will accept them wtte “after our usual immigration assessments”.
    Media don’t seem to have picked up on this, and it means that any number might still be refused entry to the US.

    The other thing about the vetting process is will they just cherry pick the best who have immediately usable skills.
    That then makes the remainder less attractive to other “buyers”.
    I know, horrible term but it is a kind of slave trade. 🙁

  37. Interesting observation from Nate Silver
    “Nationalist candidates have done pretty badly since Trump won. Wilders & Le Pen faded down the stretch run. Hofer underperformed in Austria.”

    And you can add PHON in the WA election to that too, which performed way below expectations.

  39. Lizzie

    Exactly, all that has been promised was they be considered. Got a lol to see the use of NBN weasel words “up to” when talking numbers.

  40. ‘The forgotten phrase concerning the refugees was that America will accept them wtte “after our usual immigration assessments”.
    Media don’t seem to have picked up on this, and it means that any number might still be refused entry to the US.’

    Unfortunately most of the media doesn’t do detail when it comes to buying government spin. It’s all atmospherics and propaganda.

    It should entirely piss off most Labor supporters because anyone with a half functioning memory would remember that every little thing was picked on to denigrate the government during the Rudd/Gillard years.

  41. Adrian

    No surer sign that Murdoch dominates the way politics is reported in this country. I remember Bernard Keane and some others battling that narrative. They got nowhere.

    Its one of the major reasons I want media regulations changed for diversity in the mass audience publications. To give different viewpoints to Murdoch/LNP right wing agenda a fair go.

  44. I predict the next 12 months will see a see-sawing of bewspoll by one or two points every fortnight. I call it the ‘rhythm method’ – where the libs attempt to drip feed some kind of announcement every fortnight to ‘save’ the furniture hoping that some major international event will push the electorate towards them before the next election.

  46. Victoria:

    If you haven’t seen this you might find it an interesting read:

    But with polls showing Mrs. Clinton holding a comfortable lead, Mr. Comey ended up plunging the F.B.I. into the molten center of a bitter election. Fearing the backlash that would come if it were revealed after the election that the F.B.I. had been investigating the next president and had kept it a secret, Mr. Comey sent a letter informing Congress that the case was reopened.

    What he did not say was that the F.B.I. was also investigating the campaign of Donald J. Trump. Just weeks before, Mr. Comey had declined to answer a question from Congress about whether there was such an investigation. Only in March, long after the election, did Mr. Comey confirm that there was one.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/us/politics/james-comey-election.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  47. Well, lets see how selling his soul went for Turnbull.

    Gained 1% 2PP.
    It’s no longer just PollBludger that has twigged to his ‘announceables before Newspoll’, it’s now the MSM too!
    Successfully managed to distract people from issues that Labor has public support on – gay marriage, Adani, Electricity, Climate Change, the deficit, the budget, housing affordability.

    What he did not get:
    People are now talking about issues that Opposition Leader #2 and #3 want to talk about.
    11 Newspolls down, 19 to go. The leadership speculation will really ramp up when the countdown hits single digits, and when it does, he won’t be able to turn it around.

    So I’d say this was one of his better weeks really.

    It just depends what the Lib backbench took from it – “we do better when talking about foreigners, so lets put someone in who can do it properly” or “hey, Turnbull can trash talk foreigners too, and he has a nice suit, lets keep him”.

  48. It is surprising to read criticisms of the MSM for seizing on a change in the 2PP, that is well within the MOE, while at the same time people on PB do exactly the same and attempt to attribute it to particular Govt actions.

    The reality is that it is meaningless. Nothing to see here folks.

  49. fess

    I have seen similiar reports re the Comey investigation etc. i have been following all the ins and outs of this whole saga.
    i believe that when it all gets dealt with, it will become clear as to why even Obama and Clinton had decided at the time, not to allow full exposure of the whole matter. Remember Clinton spoke in vague terms about Trump having to answer questions regarding his relationship with Putin and the Kremlin.
    The polls indicated up until the last moment that Clinton had the election in the bag and hence why for eg Obama did not want to appear as if the administration was going to meddle with the election. He thought that Clinton was on her way to being President. The cards did not fall that way and now we have this shitshow.
    The whole imbroglio has so many moving parts, I am having trouble connecting all the dots.
    I even posted yesterday that crazily I am really starting to believe that the former campaign advisor to Trump, Carter Page, who had the FISA warrant against him from the middle of last year, may actually be an asset for the US Intelligence agencies. that is how convuluted this whole saga is!!

  50. @ Bemused – if you believe that.

    I will give you $9, and then flip 4 coins and for each that comes up heads, I’ll give you an extra $1.

    In return, you have to give me $10, then flip 4 coins and give me $1 per heads.

    Sounds fair? The numbers agree within MoE.

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