BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 11
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  1. Assuming that the French polls close around 8:00PM local time, the first results would start coming in in the small hours tomorrow morning East Australian time. I expect that the results would be known by breakfast time tomorrow unless it’s very close (no preferences to distribute).

  2. Anyway, just caught up with the real suffering of people.

    BH, my sincere condolences to you and your family on the loss of your, I think, youngest son. I’m sorry to hear that his battle has come to an end. But I’m glad his pain has passed. I hope you and your family are okay. I’m thinking of you. Fondest regards to you and your family

    And to Fiona, my erstwhile friend, there’s nothing quite like the loss of a mother (or a father). My thoughts are with your, despite your stoicism.

  3. confessions @ #241 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    The ban on official Long Tan commemorative memorials extended to include Anzac Day this year.
    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/asiapacific/2017/04/23/vietnam-anzac-memorial-ban-remains.html

    This is an issue that really annoys me. It is the height of Australian arrogance to think that we can dictate terms to the Vietnamese on how we will commemorate ANZAC day in THEIR country. They have every tight to dictate terms as they see fit for ANZAC commemorations in their country.

    Australia and its allies (“we”) started the Vietnam war on the basis of a lie, we trashed the country and we cut and run after we got our arses kicked leaving our supposed allies in the south to their fate with the north, and left an impoverished country to deal with the impact of being trashed by some of the richest countries in the world.

    The Vietnamese don’t have to get over it, they don’t have to forgive or forget and they certainly do not have to entertain the boorish behaviour of Australian’s who are visitors in their country towards the commemorations for a war we started in their country.

    What exactly would Australia’s attitude be if the Japanese wanted to hold a commemoration in Darwin over the bombing of that city? And if the visiting Japanese were allowed to hold their own commemoration and then behaved the way some Australians do when visiting war sites overseas then we’d be hearing the howls of outrage for years afterwards.

  7. grimace:

    It’s only official memorials that are banned, people can still have their own private commemorative activities at Long Tan, just without media and officialdom.

  8. Grimace

    What exactly would Australia’s attitude be if the Japanese wanted to hold a commemoration in Darwin over the bombing of that city? And if the visiting Japanese were allowed to hold their own commemoration and then behaved the way some Australians do when visiting war sites overseas then we’d be hearing the howls of outrage for years afterwards.

    We allow the Japanese to commemorate their dead, in a dignified way!

    But Abbott thought it was fine. Yee hah: “Tony Abbott’s praise of Japanese submariners delivers a blow to nation’s psyche”: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-praise-of-japanese-submariners-delivers-a-blow-to-nations-psyche-20140715-zti06.html

    But the Press didn’t.

    Thankfully, Malcolm Dumbell, is now PM, replacing the idiot Abbott. Yet, Malcolm Dumbell’s now hand-in-glove with the most incompetent US administration since I don’t know when. Up you China, seems to be the go.

    Pity about China winning the 2nd World War.

  10. G
    Australia has gone a bit troppo in relation to war.
    It is pervasive and potentially extremely dangerous.
    We still have many people in Australia who resolutely refuse to acknowledge that the Russians killed more germans and that the Chinese and Americans killed more Japanese than did the British.
    They use sentences like, ‘Britain won the war.’
    Some Australians are also largely deluded about the actual difference Australia made during the two world wars.
    Confronted with the view that neither war was shortened by a day as a result of Australia’s efforts they appear to be confused.

  11. confessions @ #257 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    grimace:
    It’s only official memorials that are banned, people can still have their own private commemorative activities at Long Tan, just without media and officialdom.

    My wife’s family have a long history of military service and have had plenty to say on this issue, and lost a family member in the Vietnam war and have some strong opinion on what is going on in Vietnam over this issue.

    My wife is the resident leftie in a family full of conservatives and there is an unspoken mutual agreement that keeps the peace on these matters. Pointing out that “we” don’t have the right to dictate terms on commemorations would start quite a battle. I’ve been under strict orders from the wife to have absolutely zero participation in these conversations due to the significant gaps in our points of view.

  12. grimace
    #261 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    My wife is the resident leftie in a family full of conservatives and there is an unspoken mutual agreement that keeps the peace on these matters. Pointing out that “we” don’t have the right to dictate terms on commemorations would start quite a battle. I’ve been under strict orders from the wife to have absolutely zero participation in these conversations due to the significant gaps in our points of view.

    You display great wisdom. More power to you. ☮ ✌

  13. Our war dead are comestibles to current strategic and trading needs.
    We construct edifices of lies on their graves.
    Japan is a friendly country.
    Japanese Government ministers worship the spirits of convicted Japanese war criminals at Yasukuni Shrine.
    The Yasukuni Shrine gives a treasured place to locomotive C5631.
    This locomotive pulled the first train to go end-to-end on the Burma Railway.

  15. Boerwar

    This NYT article says it

    A plucky Britain refusing to bow to the Luftwaffe’s blitz, Patton and Rommel dueling in the North African desert, the D-Day invasion and the Battle of the Bulge — these tend to dominate American’s conception of the Allied defeat of Nazi Germany.

    But as important as the episodes were, military historians have always known that the main scene of the Nazis’ downfall was the Eastern Front, which claimed 80 percent of all German military casualties in the war.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/21/arts/a-job-for-rewrite-stalin-s-war.html

  17. Grimace @ 4:15pm
    I am with you 100%.
    Same goes for Iraq – if we ever want to commemorate our invasion of their country on their soil.

  19. Grimace @ 4.48pm

    I did a reply, lost, never to return.

    I know it was your point. I wasn’t contesting that.

    Still, BW has an enormous chip on his shoulder about the Allies (read, Australia & England), and he doesn’t want to give England, nor Australia, any kudos for their effort in WWII, because his Dutch family suffered, in Singapore.

    Yet, he found shelter here. And still he can’t forgive. Nor our fauna

  21. The Pope could do a far better thing by opening the Vatican’s archives to civilian prosecutors in several hundred countries around the world.

  23. grimace:

    I never attend Anzac memorials in Australia so can’t ever see the day I’d be moved to attend one in another country. 🙂

  24. Hola Bludgers! Tapping back into Bludgerville via my ‘new’ 5yo Dell i7 laptop with Windows 10! The afternoon has been spent frustratingly but productively transferring all my old data to my new lappie. Plus setting up all my accounts again. 🙄

    I might even be able to access a whole new sweet suite of emojis now. Ha! 😛

  25. This quote mistakenly attributed to Stalin is a good summary re WWII
    “the British gave time, the Americans gave money, and the Russians gave
    blood”.

  26. I hope Melenchon and Le Pen are the two candidates who get through to the final round of the French presidential election. Another neoliberal centrist as president would accelerate the painful decay of France and Europe. Genuine progressives should be hoping for a Melenchon versus Le Pen contest.

    Just as a Sixth Republic elaborated by citizens will permit the establishment of truly democratic institutions, the institutions of Europe must be rebuilt to finally serve the people, not finance and the dominant economic powers.

    It should be added that the beautiful humanist project of a people’s Europe, ruined and disgraced today by the democratic deficit of the EU, austerity policies, and the shameful treatment of refugees, must imperatively be rehabilitated: by a generous policy of welcome and of cooperation with developing and emerging countries, and by a pitiless struggle against all racist discrimination.

    Finally, a policy of clear independence from the great powers, whatever they may be, appears every day more necessary when world peace is in danger.

    Of the candidates, only Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the L’Avenir en commun program have formulated proposals that meet these different objectives and, more still, engage a coherent collective approach that can give them substance and not betray voters once again.

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/french-presidential-election-first-round-melenchon/

  27. I do want to say, that I had the worst feeling come over me today when I was out and about in the car and I heard the 12 o’clock news say Dutton was thinking about releasing footage of the Manus Island incident to prove that his assertions are correct. All I have been able to think about is that he might be trying a Reith/Howard Children Overboard ‘proof’ move. I would hope that we won’t get fooled again by it if he does.

  28. c@tmomma @ #274 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    Hola Bludgers! Tapping back into Bludgerville via my ‘new’ 5yo Dell i7 laptop with Windows 10! The afternoon has been spent frustratingly but productively transferring all my old data to my new lappie. Plus setting up all my accounts again.
    I might even be able to access a whole new sweet suite of emojis now. Ha!

    And Microsoft will have access to all your personal data now. Ha!

    Here’s how to fix it – https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/08/windows-10-doesnt-offer-much-privacy-by-default-heres-how-to-fix-it/

  29. Dutton’s problem is that over 100 rounds were fired at and into HIS responsibility and that Australian contractors sought refuge… amongst the refugees.

    If he release ALL of the footage of course.

  32. kezza2 @ #269 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 5:01 pm

    Grimace @ 4.48pm
    I did a reply, lost, never to return.
    I know it was your point. I wasn’t contesting that.
    Still, BW has an enormous chip on his shoulder about the Allies (read, Australia & England), and he doesn’t want to give England, nor Australia, any kudos for their effort in WWII, because his Dutch family suffered, in Singapore.
    Yet, he found shelter here. And still he can’t forgive. Nor our fauna

    Geography and history were not my strong points at school, and popular culture movies are a poor substitute, so I’ll refrain from passing judgement on who did the most heavy lifting during WW2.

  33. N
    Doesn’t dialectical materialism indicate that the best way to expose the opium of the people for what it is, is to ensure that Le Pen wins?

  34. Trump Reaches Beyond West Wing for Counsel
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/us/politics/donald-trump-white-house.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Those 20 people listed as those he’s reaching out to include his two idiot sons, Rupert Murdoch, Sean Hannity, Chris Christie for goodness sake, and a raft of ageing 80+ year old white super rich businessmen.

    Is it any wonder his govt is hell bent on governing in the vested interests rather than the interests of Americans.

  35. boerwar @ #268 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    G and B
    Falluljah would be an appropriate location to celebrate Australia’s unprovoked invasion of Iraq.
    I suggest that the celebrations be led by Howard.
    They would lynch him.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallujah

    Ok with me so long as we can guarantee those born grossly deformed as a result of their parents exposure to depleted uranium munitions are kept out of sight and out of mind. I don’t want my gauche display of patriotism to be disturbed by exposure to the consequences of that which I am there to commemorate.

  36. Will we see the same exertions by Lachlan and James when it comes to News Ltd in Australia?

    The event on Wednesday night was an advertising showcase for National Geographic, which Mr. Murdoch, 44, has doted on since becoming chief executive of its parent company, 21st Century Fox. As a person who cares deeply about “issues related to the environment, conservation, exploration and education,” he told the crowd, “I’m personally grateful for the important work National Geographic does.”

    Across town at that same moment, his 86-year-old father, Rupert — who once called climate change “alarmist nonsense” — was still dealing with fallout at his most cherished channel, Fox News. Bill O’Reilly, the pugnacious and top-rated talk show host, had been ousted that day after allegations of sexual harassment involving multiple women.

    It was James Murdoch — the one looking so unperturbed at the NatGeo presentation, posing for photos as waiters milled about in yellow suspenders and guests ate skirt steak and shrimp cocktail — who had most aggressively moved against Mr. O’Reilly. The same had happened in July, when Roger Ailes, who founded Fox News with Rupert Murdoch, was forced to resign amid his own sexual harassment scandal.

    Continue reading the main story
    This is what generational change at one of the globe’s most powerful media conglomerates looks like.

    With James and his elder brother, Lachlan, 45, who is the executive chairman of 21st Century Fox, firmly entrenched as their father’s successors, they are now forcibly exerting themselves. Their father remains very involved, but his sons seem determined to rid the company of its roguish, old-guard internal culture and tilt operations toward the digital future. They are working to make the family empire their own, not the one the elder Murdoch created to suit his sensibilities.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/business/media/murdoch-family-21st-century-fox.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  39. Hmmm

    The North Korea challenge is now one the US and its allies have no choice but to address. The balance of argument now is for strategic haste.

    The aggressive rogue state is posturing for the ultimate fight. Right now, it has between 10 and 20 nuclear devices and is busily developing the means to convey them. Its ambition is the nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile.

    Pyongyang’s threat of using just that on Australia is nothing less than an invitation to war. Indeed if deemed credible, it carries that obligation. Just as JFK faced a closing window in the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 – with any delay being enough to get Cuba’s soviet-supplied nuclear warheads fuelled and aimed at American cities – the US and its allies are being hurried to a fateful choice.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/north-korean-threats-will-leave-alliance-countries-little-choice-20170423-gvqpxh.html

  47. kezza

    ‘If you really want to give accolades to Russia, China and America, then perhaps you should explain why they were so reluctant to end it more quickly; instead of the hero-worship you award them..’

    Depends which historians you read. The Russians and Americans were really shirty about England, because Churchill was far more focussed on keeping the Empire than he was on defeating Hitler. Some believe D-Day – and the end of the war – was delayed by at least a year because Churchill was quite happy for the Russians to keep fighting – and dying.

  48. I found the article about peer review interesting – one of my friends has been leading the charge on this, exposing fraudulent methods used by those submitting papers.

    In one case, after several requests for data, each one which had to be more and more specific, he found that the original data and that the authors wanted to use in the publication were totally unrelated (as in, made up to suit the authors’ contention).

    When he pointed this out to the authors, he received the hopeful reply: “Can we publish anyway?”

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