BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  3. JimKilbane: Why people are marching for science: ‘There is no Planet B’ – The Washington Post #ScienceMarch apple.news/AUoeKyoPWTQaXb…

    Did I miss comment on this by Insiders mob?

  4. Barney – I was talking PMship (not Lib party) when I wanted someone to tell Abbott & Turnbull they weren’t suitable

  6. Dutton: “”They have to return back to their country of origin.”

    I hope Dutton doesn’t set standards for good English: “back” is superfluous.

  7. I’ve been jumping up and down saying that Malcolm will pull the pin before the next election. Totally wrong. Why? Because he’s obviously angling for his son in law, James Brown to replace him in the seat. That means that Malcolm will have to fight the next election and then tell the party that they owe him one and should shoe-horn Brown into the seat.
    In case there is any doubt, here is the front page of the Wentworth Courier last week with a huge promo on, you guessed it, James Brown (and I’m not referring to the Godfather of Funk).
    http://newslocal.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

  10. Barney In Go Dau

    Dutton is well-rehearsed in Qld cop-speak, but to move upwards, has had to adopt bureaucratese and repeat himself endlessly.

  14. Barney In Go Dau

    Dutton hates Twitter, because he can no longer insist he is the only one with the ‘facts’, but he’s bunkering down, all the same.

  15. Grog,
    After events this week it is hard not to conclude that Australia would have been better off had Malcolm Turnbull never become prime minister.

    The truth really can be so succinctly put sometimes.

  18. Shellbell
    That was a gratuitous comment on a fair comment about sporting officials.
    But don’t worry.
    I won’t make a gratuitous comment on ignorance not being an unsuitable basis for gratis gratuitous commentary.

  20. As per my earlier post re the Trump saga. Here is little excerpt of Carter Page on CNN. I noticed he looked down at one point. My experience when someone does that it means they are bullshitting. Hence my strong vibe that may in fact be a US intelligence asset

    30

    110

    11h
    Olga_nyc ✨‏ @olgaNYC1211
    Insane!! Carter Page who was involved in #Trumprussia plot thinks the bigger issue is that Intel meddled in his life…Get him off the air!
    CNN Politics‏ @CNNPolitics
    Former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page does not say whether possible Russian election interference “bothers” him (link: http://snpy.tv/2po1B81) snpy.tv/2po1B81

  22. Confessions
    The link works but you have to select a publication. There’s a right arrow to the right of the words “Select publication”.
    If you keep pushing the arrow eventually you get a list of publications. Select Wentworth Courier.

  30. zoomster Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 10:14 am

    I’m impressed at how many Americans were the first on Omaha beach.

    ************************************
    A heart rending account of the tragedy at Omaha Beach on D-Day is in the book :

    The Bedford Boys – One American Town’s Ultimate D-day Sacrifice – by Alex Kershaw

    Out of around 30 soldiers from the town of Bedford, Virginia ( population 3000 ) were in the first wave of American soldiers to hit the beaches in Normandy – and within the first minutes 19 of the Bedford boys were killed.

    An accurate figure for casualties incurred at Omaha on 6 June is not known; sources vary between 2,000 and 4,700 killed, wounded, and missing,

  31. Player One
    Nash: yes we know the climate is changing but the science isn’t settled.

    What on earth does that mean? “I’m hedging my bets so that I can keep my position”???

  32. Marches for Science Outdraw Donald Trump’s Inauguration

    The American people have rejected Donald Trump’s rejection of science and global warming. And they have done it in overwhelming numbers

    Donald Trump claimed God stopped the rain for his inauguration. That didn’t happen. It rained. It probably didn’t keep the crowds away from an event nobody wanted to attend anyway, but the rain certainly hasn’t kept crowds away from Science March

    Donald Trump is less popular than science. The American people rejected his candidacy on Election Day and they rejected his inauguration. Now they have rejected his rejection of science and global warming. And they have done it in overwhelming numbers.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/22/science-march-dc-outdraws-donald-trumps-inauguration.html

  35. Marcus Strom‏Verified account @strom_m · 21h21 hours ago

    This riot police officer told me he was filming all people on @ScienceMarchSyd “for their records”. #keepingstreetssafefromscience pic.twitter.com/N41XnugesU

    Scientists are known for their rebellious nature?

  36. Some gossipy magazine stuff from Vanity Fair – for anyone interested :

    Melania Trump profile says she’s ‘frosty’ with Ivanka and ‘never had any interest’ in First Lady job

    A profile of First Lady Melania Trump in Vanity Fair magazine paints the former model as bored and disinterested with the duties of First Lady and sources close to Mrs. Trump say that she has been fairly dragged along behind her husband’s political ambitions against her will.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/melania-trump-profile-says-shes-frosty-with-ivanka-and-never-had-any-interest-in-first-lady-job/

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/donald-melania-trump-marriage

  37. Marches for Science Outdraw Donald Trump’s Inauguration

    Oh dear. Wonder if Comical Ali will spin using ‘alternative facts’.

  39. In regards to that illustration on Nick Clegg and “his lack of a spine”, it’s a shame the AV referendum went down because of people’s anger at the Lib Dems. Preferential voting would work so much better in the UK.

  40. PhoenixRED

    She could create a (charity?) job for herself, as others FLs have – unless she’s only interested in herself. Can’t blame her for keeping her distance from Trump, however.

  41. North Korea: ‘US has now gone seriously mad’

    US strike group to arrive off Korean peninsula in days amid concerns the North is ramping up for a sixth nuclear test.

    North Korea reiterated its vow to launch “full-out war” with nuclear weapons on Saturday as an American naval strike carrier was set to arrive off the tense Korean peninsula in a matter of days.

    Tensions between the United States and the North have soared in recent weeks as a series of North Korean missile tests have wrought ever-more bellicose warnings from President Donald Trump’s administration about curtailing its nuclear weapons programme.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/north-korea-mad-170422145639890.html

  42. Lizzie
    I did not say that the British did not suffer during WW2.
    Everyone suffers during wars, except maybe psychopaths who, as a group, tend to thrive on war for obvious reasons.
    What I did say is that, statistically, the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans won the war.
    Like the Australians, the British were smaller players in a bigger game.

  43. Lizzie; just think what the cost must be for the US police to keep all those photos?
    And how do they categorise & file them in order to get easy and accurate access at a later time?
    And this at a time when most US cities are really short of funds for roads, education and lots of other more socially important things.
    Not very rational, and touching on paranoia.

  44. L
    ‘Nash: yes we know the climate is changing but the science isn’t settled.
    What on earth does that mean? “I’m hedging my bets so that I can keep my position”???’

    It means that Nash rejects the science on global warming.
    Possible reasons for her statement, none of them mutually exclusive, are: utter scientific ignorance, gross stupidity, personal greed, psychosis, and uncontrolled ambition.

  46. If the US/North_Korea confrontation really hots up, I cannot see China just standing idly by and letting the US+South_Korea ‘invade’ or occupy the North and start deploying all sorts of missile systems along the Chinese border..
    Rather I would expect them to move in swiftly; initiate regime change and take control of the North.

  47. Booleanbach

    Someone tweeted to say that the photos are destroyed if nobody plays up (or whatever expression you prefer). You may believe that if you like.

  48. Raaraa

    In regards to that illustration on Nick Clegg and “his lack of a spine”, it’s a shame the AV referendum went down because of people’s anger at the Lib Dems.

    Just one part of a large package of legislation that he was given responsibility for. Most of it not nearly as contenious as this part. He f#cked just about all of it up. He was really good at blaming others for his inability to achieve much.

  49. Lizzie
    I may have believed that once upon a time in a world a long way from the present one; but I do not believe it applies to our world.

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