BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. I live this from the science march:

    Sign I saw today: “This march is actually twice as big. The control group had to stay home.”

  2. Retain this.‏ @brayshawjb · 3h3 hours ago

    If they want to nuke us after listening to Julie Bishop, imagine if they had to listen to Michaelia Cash #auspol

  3. Just thought of a job for Tony Abbott. Malcolm could make him our special emissary to North Korea. What could possibly go wrong?

  4. ” Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party may be wiped off the map in the surprise British election. What the hell went wrong? ”

    Asked and answered. It’s Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.

  5. “Just thought of a job for Tony Abbott. Malcolm could make him our special emissary to North Korea. What could possibly go wrong?”
    I reckon Tony and Kim Jong-un would get on fine.

  6. A statement of the bleedin obvious, so obvious you have to wonder why it even needs to be made at all.

    The “harsh reality” is West Australians will always face a “very small” risk of being attacked by a shark when they enter the ocean, Premier Mark McGowan said as he ruled out a cull to protect human life.

    After he was accused of not doing enough to protect ocean users, Mr McGowan said helping those most vulnerable — surfers and divers — “protect themselves” from sharks was “the best way of dealing with the problem we face”.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/sharks/premier-mark-mcgowan-says-shark-attacks-a-harsh-reality-of-ocean-use-ng-b88453898z

    Unfortunately while there are idiots around like Andrew Hastie and Josh Frydenberg these facts need to be reiterated.

  7. confessions @ #208 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 1:42 pm

    A statement of the bleedin obvious, so obvious you have to wonder why it even needs to be made at all.

    The “harsh reality” is West Australians will always face a “very small” risk of being attacked by a shark when they enter the ocean, Premier Mark McGowan said as he ruled out a cull to protect human life.
    After he was accused of not doing enough to protect ocean users, Mr McGowan said helping those most vulnerable — surfers and divers — “protect themselves” from sharks was “the best way of dealing with the problem we face”.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/sharks/premier-mark-mcgowan-says-shark-attacks-a-harsh-reality-of-ocean-use-ng-b88453898z
    Unfortunately while there are idiots around like Andrew Hastie and Josh Frydenberg these facts need to be reiterated.

    It needs to be made because a shark attack is highly emotive, which is compounded by the victims generally being very photogenic.

    Conversely, falling out of bed is boring and deaths on the road are so common that they are a statistic and nobody is really interested unless they are personally impacted.

  8. The “harsh reality” is West Australians will always face a “very small” risk of being attacked by a shark when they enter the ocean, Premier Mark McGowan said as he ruled out a cull to protect human life.
    ________________________________________________________________
    One of the most sensible and truthful utterances from a politician in recent times.

  9. ‘The Australian’ has been running a shark campaign for well over a year.
    In relation to the WA attack, Fred Pawle – their go-to shark expert and occasional writer on the topic (and who has yet to declare any possible conflicts of interest) announced that his opponenents had ‘blood on their hands’.

  10. There have been 11 shark deaths in WA over the last 6 years . So in raw numbers and per capita that sort of number means the issue gets a regular work out in the Wild West. It’s a hardy annual as they say.

  11. To be fair, a politician who uses their accommodation allowance to buy a property in Canberra instead of renting one/hiring a motel room, is making a very wise decision.

  12. poroti @ #213 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    There have been 11 shark deaths in WA over the last 6 years . So in raw numbers and per capita that sort of number means the issue gets a regular work out in the Wild West. It’s a hardy annual as they say.

    As Deming would say, “There is a stable (ie predictable) system for people to be attacked by sharks”.

  13. BK:

    The full comment is even better:

    “The harsh reality is we live in a part of the world where there are great whites and when you go in the ocean there is a very small chance of something happening to you. That’s something no government can ever escape from, that will always be a reality.”

    Here’s some more quotes, and a dig at Frydenberg and Hastie:

    “The Federal Government intervening on this issue in the way they did was inappropriate, I thought it was the time for being kind to the family,”

    “I have avoided trying to politicise this issue. You haven’t seen me on TV yelling and screaming about it because I thought it was unnecessarily painful and tawdry to do so.”

    The Premier said he accepts scientific advice “that there hasn’t been a great increase” in the white pointer population, but would take advice on reopening the metropolitan shark fishery. “I’m not an expert, I’ll accept the advice of the scientists,” he said.

    “We haven’t gone down the culling route because it was tried and it didn’t work,”

  14. [Steve777
    Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 1:18 pm
    Just thought of a job for Tony Abbott. Malcolm could make him our special emissary to North Korea. What could possibly go wrong?]

    He could take his Pollie Pedal mates on a tour of North Korea. They seem to have a lot of bicycles for them to choose.

  15. In relation to the WA attack, Fred Pawle – their go-to shark expert and occasional writer on the topic

    He isn’t that surfer they pull out every now and then to tell readers that he’s been surfing at X spot for decades and can say categorically that sea levels are not rising, is he?

  16. BK
    WA has a lot of areas where seals lob in to breed that are pretty close to the coast. Great Whites love em, So I wonder what happens when people swim/surf while wearing their seal impersonation suits, I mean wet suits, or paddle lying on their boards, hands and feet dangling so as to look even more like a seal from below where the Great White lurk ? 🙂

  17. Smartphone=1; Bob Katter=0

    MAVERICK MP Bob Katter has been caught on camera saying he doesn’t want “any Muslims” in Australia before immediately backtracking on his own comment.

    The Federal Member for Kennedy was in a NSW pub when a Sydney man, who introduced himself as Kev, bailed him up on film and accused the MP of “racist vibes”.

    “You don’t like much, do you really?” Kev asked the Federal Member for Kennedy.

    Katter replied: “We’re nice to you white blokes, I think we are.”

    Kev then asked Mr Katter if he was “in bed” with One Nation to which the MP replied “I don’t want any Muslims coming here”.

    The MP quickly tried to retract his statement adding “I shouldn’t say that”.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/bob-katter-filmed-saying-i-dont-want-any-muslims/news-story/88c4589ffcb2c0c95344cb2842473df9

  18. boerwar @ #212 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    ‘The Australian’ has been running a shark campaign for well over a year.
    In relation to the WA attack, Fred Pawle – their go-to shark expert and occasional writer on the topic (and who has yet to declare any possible conflicts of interest) announced that his opponenents had ‘blood on their hands’.

    What is it about News Corp and their insistence on elevating obscure pet issues to hysterical levels which are out of all proportion to their impact on anybody who doesn’t want to engage in hate mongering or wanton destruction with impunity.

  19. I wonder if one of our other gifted cartoonists were to shuffle off the mortal coil, there would be the sort of calls for canonisation that we’ve had for Bill Leak.

  20. For anyone following the AOC election Tracey Holmes has just published a piece on the ABC online.
    “Death threats, bullying, intimidation and blackmail — that’s what Australia’s most senior Olympic official is dealing with two weeks out from an election in which he hopes to retain his position.”

    Will be a non event in my opinion even though it is probably time for some new blood. The voting rules heavily favour the incumbent John Coates, who also has Mark Arbib and Graham Richardson in his corner who know a thing or too about manipulating elections.

  21. ‘The Australian’ prefers to talk about any other minor environmental issue rather than global warming.
    So, they jump the shark with serial drivel about sharks.
    ‘The Australian’ almost never mentions global warming records.
    It has been mute on what is happening to sea-ice globally.
    It never refers to the impact that global warming has had in destabilizing the ME.
    It never refers to the 60,000 jobs that depend on the Great Barrier Reef.
    OTOH, it loves talking about how wonderful coal is.
    Given that the dying Reef is a major environmental disaster that has already commenced, ‘The Australian’ only once did a major piece on it. And then only when it had been challenged on how silent it was on the state of the Reef. Naturally the piece was heavily qualified and set in the general framework of contested science.
    The dying hand of Rupert Murdoch and his dying rag are dragging the Reef to death with them as they go.

    Join the dots.

  22. zoomster:

    Some of those signs are really good. I esp like the one ‘build this wall’ with a wall depicted between the White House and a church.

  23. WA has had 11 shark deaths in 6 years. That is terrible for the victims, their families and friends. The rate of shark deaths come in at about 0.7 per million people per annum, somthe odds are comparable to that of winning a grim Lotto. It compares with about 40 drownings per annum (16 per million) in WA and about 120 road deaths per annum (just under 50).

  24. P
    I tried to listen to it but my stomach started heaving.
    In his last years, following what seems to have been an ABI, Leak took to kicking the weak and the vulnerable in the guts.
    In his last years he never took on Murdoch, the miners, the coal burners, or the banks.
    That is all anyone needs to know about Leak.
    That Murdoch hagiographers sanctified him dots the ‘i’s, crosses the ‘t’s and underlines Leak’s true value: paid hack in harness to power.

  25. If you know any genuine hard-working scientists, you’ll know why this is amusing.

    Fake peer reviewers often “know what a review looks like and know enough to make it look plausible,” said Elizabeth Wager, editor of the journal Research Integrity & Peer Review. But they aren’t always good at faking less obvious quirks of academia: “When a lot of the fake peer reviews first came up, one of the reasons the editors spotted them was that the reviewers responded on time,” Wager told Ars. Reviewers almost always have to be chased, so “this was the red flag. And in a few cases, both the reviews would pop up within a few minutes of each other.”

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/107-cancer-papers-retracted-due-to-peer-review-fraud/

  26. I went and checked over at the thread on the British and French elections, but no comments for 17 hours, so I’ll ask here if anyone knows when we’ll start to see some results from France.

  27. I went and checked over at the thread on the British and French elections, but no comments for 17 hours, so I’ll ask here if anyone knows when we’ll start to see some results from France.

    Exit polls will be published 4am EST, and the actual result should be clear about three hours after that, unless it’s particularly close. And yes, you’re encouraged to discuss it here:
    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/04/21/see-england-see-france/

  28. Bemused
    “Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:09 am
    Hey Socrates, did you see what I posted Friday night about Box Hill in Melbourne?
    Buildings up to 30 storeys planned.”
    Sorry I went out just after you posted this and only read the article now. Sadly that is the sort of thing I was warning about – intense high rise plonked into the middle of a low rise area. This smacks of a developer dominated process. You do not need 30 stories to make offices or public transport viable. Large areas of central London, Paris and Berlin, with superb amenity and services, are around six stories, no more. Anyone in a house downsun of a 30 story tower will feel like they are living in a cave.

  29. Thanks, William.
    Best for this thread to stick with faux Spanish style housing and whether or not Trump is going to blow a gasket with the science marches being bigger than his inauguration and whether George Trumble could possibly be any more obsequious to Pence, and the like.

  30. Jeezus you’re a rude prick, BW

    The English – only suffered, during WWII? No casualties.? None worth mentioning.?

    What about the Dutch? They gave up after 5 days; didn’t even bother defending their colonies.

    But let’s cheer the real victors, the Russians, the Chinese & the Yanks, for winning WWII.

    I’m sorry your family ‘suffered’ during WWII, in Singapore, but let’s be clear here, England did its bit to win the war, when no other fcker would help.

    If you really want to give accolades to Russia, China and America, then perhaps you should explain why they were so reluctant to end it more quickly; instead of the hero-worship you award them.

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