BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. To be honest I often feel a bit of an Anglophobe around Anzac day myself. My maternal grandfather’s elder brother died at Bullecourt, aged 19, in 1916. It was the first of two battles there, botched by British high command and a futile failure, costing thousands of Australian lives for no lasting gain.

    I respect the sacrifices soldiers make, and defending the country is legitimate. But I oppose any foreign military adventurism, from Iraq to Vietnam, and I think I have good reason for doing so. We should have a law like ancient Sparta, where any leader starting a foreign war had to go there and lead the army from the front rank. It would certainly put the John Howards of this world in their place.

  2. Morning all

    It doesn’t take a health professional to know that Trump is mentally ill equipped to be the leader of the free world!
    In meantime I managed to see Carter Page (one of Trump’s former campaign advisors and now under FBI investigations) do another interview on Cable tv yesterday.
    I have been puzzled by his public pronouncements.
    I am starting to have a strong feeling he is actually a mole for the Intell agencies!
    Watch this space

  3. I love how American Republican politicians wear their red ties everywhere, even in Australia. It makes them look like they support Labor. 🙂

  4. bk @ #101 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:03 am

    barney in go dau @ #94 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:53 am

    Greg Jericho lays into Turnbull and illogic of the 457 changes amongst other things.
    Good read as usual.

    That is an amazingly good contribution.

    The thing I like about Grog is that he uses facts and logic to support his arguments, and with his background he has an understanding of policy formation and implementation.

    A refreshing change in the media especially when he wanders away from economics.

  5. As you can tell, I’m not much interested in listening to Mr Potato Head’s contribution on Insiders right now. 🙂

  6. “It doesn’t take a health professional to know that Trump is mentally ill equipped to be the leader of the free world!”

    Yes it does. 60 million Americans didn’t recognise the symptoms and identify the problem, much less act on the diagnosis.

  7. Its all clear now. Potato Head has just clarified the elevated situation problem at Manus. “It was all Labors Fault”
    Stuff me, I need a flogging. I should of known that shouldn’t of I.

  8. Dutton’s says the ‘brand’ of 457 visas was trashed … so his achievement is to ‘rebrand’ them.

    Just a PR exercise.

  9. Anyway, you can tell this whole thing is just a political exercise because all Dutton wants to keep doing is keep referring back to ‘Bill Shorten’.

  10. Dutton’s says the ‘brand’ of 457 visas was trashed … so his achievement is to ‘rebrand’ them.

    So it was just a political stunt trumped up as policy change. Honestly, this mob are frickin hopeless!

  11. Coorey on the bad Abbott polling:
    ‘ …. get Hadley and Jones to ‘do a job’ on the independents’.

    That’s how they work these pricks

  12. Sounds like Insiders should become a fortnightly show.
    The week off seems to have allowed Barry to reflect and refocus.
    Eagerly awaiting the podcast. 🙂

  13. Dutton is a slimey grub. If he starts going down in the Fibs Party structure than rest assured he won’t go down without a fight and will take down as many as he can with him.

  14. Dutton has never been quick witted so it really shouldn’t be a surprise that someone like Barrie Cassidy can expose his hollowness.

  15. The thing about Greg Jericho is that unlike most commentators, he actually knows what he is talking about when it comes to immigration policy.

  16. Boerwar

    PB is a surprising venue for gratuitous attacks on sporting officials.

    Viewing sport at almost any level in Australia is spoilt by loud mouth blokes in the bleaches who never had the guts to walk on a court or a field to make a decision.

    Every weekend I run the line for my children’s soccer teams and I get to meet teenage boys and girls’ referees who are on the beginning of a path and already have the guts.

  17. Shellbell

    The umpiring in the AFL has been bad. However I blame the rule changes every year. Umpires are only human and changing the rules all the time is just bloody confusing. To umpires just as much as anyone else.

    The Umpires are the cannon fodder for the bad policy decisions of the AFL.

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