BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 22
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  1. No election is due in the UK. They are just two years into a five year term with a comfortable majority. The Conservatives, whatever excuse they give, just want to take advantage of the Opposition’s weakness to restart the 5 years. A secondary objective would be to avoid having an election in 2020 just after the two year Brexit negotiation period expires.

  2. fulvio sammut @ #671 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    I’ve been out all day, so don’t know if these thoughts have already been posted.
    Two points.
    Firstly, the reason there were 20,000 more 457 visas issued by the previous Labor Government is that there was prosperity in this country under Labor, with near full employment and a need to attract temporary skilled immigrant labour.
    —

    Sorry? When was this golden era? I must have slept through it.

  3. PM May says she needs an election to better prepare for Brexit.

    What she should have said is latest opinions polls have

    Conservative 46
    Labour 23

  5. sprocket:

    Yep, totally taking advantage of Labour’s weakness with a poor leader and poor polling.

    Latika M Bourke
    2 mins ·
    BREAKING! Britain’s prime minister Theresa May has called a snap election for June 8. Tories are 21 points ahead of Labour led by Jeremy Corbyn according to latest polls.

  8. Adrian,
    You accused me of keeping company with Dutton, with zero evidence that I feel anything but the utmost contempt for him. Now you’re whining and playing the victim, despite your…vigourous defense of the gift to rorters & thieves that is the 457 visa program. Typical Greens wilting!

  12. If Corbyn is smart he will team up with SNP and claim its no time to go for an election. That May claiming political games is not good enough for her political play of the year in calling for an election.

  15. Predictably Price and Bolt are pouring cold water on Mal’s 457 announcement.

    I reckon Pauline Hanson will have plenty to say about it too. after she works out what a sham it is.

  16. UK General Election is now be default Brexit Vote V2.

    I wonder if there will be divergent swings. Ie London swings Labor/Lib Dem while regional goes heavily in favour of conservatives. Plus where MP voted against their constituents votes would be interesting to see. SNP might lose 4 or 5 seats but still hold vast majority of seats north of Hadrian’s.

  20. Not exactly Matt, but shoot your mouth off all you like, and now you know how I vote as well!
    I would never defend ‘rorters’ and have never suggested this.

    About time you pulled your head in.

  25. Current polling in the UK:

    Con – 44%
    Lab – 23%
    LD – 12%
    UKIP – 10%
    Other – 10%

    I am expecting Labour and UKIP to get flogged. Lib Dems will gain some votes, considering they are the only party to fight against Brexit.
    Can’t believe UK Labour rolled over to the government during Brexit negotiations. They should have stood their ground, arguing it is against national interest and the exit will be messy.

  27. sprocket_ @ #721 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    It would seem Corbyn’s only hope is to declare if he wins, Brexit gets the boot. It might just work..

    I agree.
    That should rouse all the younger people who didn’t bother voting in the referendum.
    There may also be a lot of others experiencing buyers remorse.
    But we are assuming the Tory’s continue to support Brexit. They may not. Their backers in the City of London are not impressed.

  33. No surprise May has called a early election. Easy decision.

    It will be a huge bonus long term for labour as well. Yes, labour will lose a significant number of seats but realistically that collateral damage is a necessary kick up the arse and will hopefully put a stop to the slow death by a thousand cuts currently under way as labour implodes.

    The election will hopefully result in the end of the failed lurch to the left experiment currently been overseen by Corbyn.

    Yes, the election will be nasty for labour but necessary.

    Cheers.

  35. Gorkay King:

    Tories need Labour for a 2/3 majority to vote for a early election and override the lock on calling them.

  36. I suspect if May treats the snap election as a second referendum on Brexit then she is likely to suffer significant losses. Seems to be a lot of buyer remorse out there.

  39. Ides Of March
    Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 8:30 pm
    Gorkay King:

    Tories need Labour for a 2/3 majority to vote for a early election and override the lock on calling them.

    Very interesting. There’s going to be a lot of egg on May’s face if she has to announce that it’s all off.

  42. The question that should be asked but never is of a Government with a secure majority that calls an early answer: “What are you afraid of?”

  47. grimace @ #621 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:27 pm

    barney in go dau @ #620 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    lizzie @ #599 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    Ending 457 visas & at same time underfunding education, skills & training risks skills shortage. Need to lift the skills side to avoid that

    Kouk nails my thoughts on 457s.
    Any jobs listed under 457 should have their education funding assessed to address the shortfall and once the shortage is addressed the job should be removed from this category.
    If you’re not going to address the education side then the shortfall should be addressed through skilled migration.
    Of course it’s not an either/or situation as you could use both together to reduce the shortfall.

    Except that employers have demonstrated themselves to be completely uninterested in training people. They want someone else to pay and for a worker to turn up on day one with 110% of what the employer requires without any actual work done by the employer.

    You put a huge fee on 457s which goes towards training. A discount if the employer can demonstrate they are supporting training in the shortfall area.

  48. Labour and Lib-Dems should make it hard for May. May wants to push the 5 year term forward to allow more time for Brexit to settle down in time for the next elections.

  50. There’s going to be a lot of egg on May’s face if she has to announce that it’s all off.

    Will it really though?

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