There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.
According to the BBC, Labour have said they will vote with the government:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603
Confessions
Nope. For that to happen Labour has to oppose the calling of an election.
Thats very hard for a political party to do. No matter how much you think they should.
Regarding Trump. Short of him causing nuclear warfare, what seems to me most important is the Democrats regaining the ability to block in the Senate, if not the Congress.
Is that possible in 2018? If so, is it possible for Trump to do us all a favour and go down slowly, kicking and screaming and doing the maximum damage to the Republicans possible in the process? I know some here want him to be gotten rid of, in favour of Pence. But the best hope we have is that the shit storm causes so much distraction that the Republicans just can’t progress any of their insane agenda. Getting rid of Trump sooner, in favour of Pence means yet more progress on fcuking the poor and the sick.
Corbyn and Labour to vote for an election.
Into the valley of death ……..
Old Mayhem may get a shock
Rhttp://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/04/18/breaking-jeremy-corbyn-backs-snap-general-election/?utm_source=PNT&utm_medium=SocialTwitter&utm_content=TwitterBB&utm_campaign=PNTwitter
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/04/18/breaking-jeremy-corbyn-backs-snap-general-election/?utm_source=PNT&utm_medium=SocialTwitter&utm_content=TwitterBB&utm_campaign=PNTwitter
Sorry
So the turkeys are going to vote for Christmas.
I have no real knowledge as to the political smarts of the current UK PM but she does not gone across to me as a stupid woman.
Therefore, it would be very surprising and a ” huge oversight ” on her part if she had not considered all of the road blocks being suggested in stopping this early election call from her actually going ahead.
Cheers.
Jeremy Corbyn is supporting the early election..
Sorry, what does this refer to?
Well, there you go. She had her ducks in a row.
Cheers.
Confessions
Your question is a general election going to happen.
We now know it is.
If this hastens his demise, then every Labour supporter and member should get behind him. 😀
Yes, eons ago. Why are you only responding to that question now, when it’s been revealed beyond doubt that a UK general election is happening?
Confessions.
As that Pink News headline put it. Jeremy Corbyn could be PM in 51 days.
Confessions.
It only appeared on my page recently.
I agree Doyley. I suspect May would have consulted Corbyn before making the announcement.
Guytaur,
Is Corbyn standing for election in ” Puff the magic dragon land ” ?
Cheers.
That’s a fair statement it seems. Otherwise it’ll be an egg-face incident.
Doyley
Corbyn may be a good campaigner. All the complaints I have seen have been he has not campaigned. No excuses now he has to campaign with the MP’s campaigning with not against him.
I, for one, am quite sad that Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t been able to transform the enthusiasm for his election by the rank and file members of the UK Labour Party into momentum in the political sphere. Lord knows he’s been gifted issue after issue by the Tories but just doesn’t seem to have the political smarts to create the alchemy that bewitches the electorate in general. Shame really because I think that the 3rd Way is the wrong way now. Paul Keating and Sally Macmanus recognise that it is dead and that the world needs a new social compact for the 21st century. I thought Corbyn realised it too. Maybe he did. Maybe he just hasn’t been able to translate it into policy form.
It will be a brexit election in Scotland. Tories v SNP.
https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/10154492378291728/
Why has this not only taken hold but being pushed by conservative reactionaries all of a sudden? Is it a Spiv Central hat tip to donors, or some kind of proxy movement to whiteant Turnbull? Or both maybe?
Guytaur, I think even if Corbyn is as good as some people say he is, it is a very uphill battle with most of the popular media aligned against him.
cud chewer @ #753 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 8:46 pm
To be blunt about it, the poor and the sick voted for Trump, and now they are getting what they voted for. Unfortunately for the poor and the sick in the US things are going to get a lot worse for them before they get better. Hopefully Trump & Co will be the kick in the guts while they are down to plot a more sensible political course. I remain pessimistic of this though.
Guytaur,
It will a interesting campaign from labour. Do the everyday punters in the UK have the UK have the same priorities as the left wing UK unions and Labour Party members ? Who is actually out of touch ? The Corbyn wing of the party or the Corbyn is a complete prat wing of the Labour Party.
Huge election for the future of the U.K. Labour Party.
Cheers.
This doesn’t answer my question but I’ll give you that deflection play since we know now you been caught out. But in any case I’ll eat my hat if Corbyn is PM in 51 days.
And you can take that to your pink news feed.
Im more interested in the UK election to see how the other parties go. I think the Tories will be returned will a comfortable but smaller majority.
I wonder if the Lib Dems will regain seats they lost in 2015 (particularly in the South East). I wonder if The Greens will finally get beyond Bright and Cove and win East Brighton. Will UKIP win a general election seat? (Given Brexit chances are probs low). Given SNP holds all but three seats in Scotland, will they gain or lose any?
Raaraa
I do agree. However we thought Trump could not win too.
I don’t like Labour’s chances but Corbyn could surprise.
Thats the essence of the surprise bit.
@Bemused
If you are referring to Why Turkey and the Muslim world needs Erdogan by Kuranda Seyit; I have just read it and it just reads like what you would see in a low circulation pro-government propaganda rag in Turkey. It’s the same type of propoganda you see in Turkey, how Turkey will become superpower, if we only could get rid of X,Y,Z internal and external enemies.
While Turkey has grown economically, over the long term it is an average economic performance. Most developing nations have continued to develop and grow similar to Turkey. The idea that Erdogan has made Turkey some economic powerhouse is laughable.
There are no good reasons for the current referandum. Executive presidency achieves nothing. Erdogan’s party already control legislation and he can rubber stamp laws. He already has some control over the judiciary. For the last 6+ months he has been ruling in the emergency rule. Just like a sultan or king. This new referendum just formalises the existing regime. He just wants to be supreme leader, unquestioned. He has already let go a number of his close aides and prime minister had to resign because he fell out with Erdogan. He just wants to take control of his party so he can have even more control over his subordinates.
The only reason coup has happened because he let military be infiltrated by his Islamist allies over many years until he fell out with his old allies in late 2013, which began with a corruption scandal (involving Erdogan and his sons). Most coup plotters were mid-level officers that didn’t have enough time to rise through the ranks. Erdogan was very happy to work with last year’s plotters against secularists and Kemalist officers.
Erdogan is very popular in Islamist circles and world wide a lot of Muslims like him. He was seen to stand up to Israel during their attack on Gaza after a well publicised exchange with Israeli leader. He was also a champion for Egypt’s Mursi and Muslim brotherhood and invested in places like Somalia. He has hosted millions of refugees under the pretext they are fellow Muslims. He has also supported ISIS and other Islamist groups against Kurds and Assad in Syria.
This will end in 3 ways ;
Another, successful coup.
Assassination.
Civil war.
Well if I was a Labour MP in anything but the safest seat I’d be updating my CV right now.
confessions @ #775 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:04 pm
It is without a doubt a Spiv Central hat tip to donors, it may also be other things.
From the L/NP’s point of view, allowing superannuation money to be accessed for the purchase of a first home is intended to forestall the bursting of the housing bubble beyond the next federal election which they know they will almost certainly loose. When the bubble inevitably bursts, probably on Labor’s watch, the L/NP intention is to use the bursting of the bubble as a stick to beat Labor with for decades to come with WTTE:
– See!!! We told you that Labor couldn’t be trusted with the economy!!!
– We told you that Labor’s negative gearing and/or CGT policies would trash the housing market!!!
– We told you that the instant a Labor government was elected that investor confidence would leave the economy!!!”
Labor need to be VERY careful here.
Would people be hammering May on her promise that there wasn’t going to be a snap election prior to 2020?
Adrian, 4,226 cooks, 3,295 cafe and restaurant managers, 684 bakers and pastrycooks and 2,051 chefs have entered the country under the 457 visa program since 2014.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/business-welcomes-457-visa-changes-warns-on-red-tape-20170418-gvn0rm.html
Tom
Guytaur
If anything pollsters in the UK need to take a hard look at themselves and figure out where they went wrong in the last few elections.
Raaraa
American media is. So will UK press take any notice? I doubt it since Corbyn has agreed.
I’m not sure if anyone has posted this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/17/tony-abbott-launches-new-attack-on-turnbull-but-says-pm-shouldnt-be-replaced#comment-96696729
Vert clever and so apt.
I imagine with an election pending, Westminister wont be getting involved in Northern Ireland given its deadlocked devolved parliament. Can it even? Would they be in caretaker mode now?
Vert clever and so apt
cleverer than I am.
gorkay king @ #782 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:11 pm
Thanks Gorkay, I am sure I am not the only one who appreciates you sharing your knowledge.
Three unpalatable choices.
I meant the comment not the article.
grimace:
You may be right, but the housing bubble bursting is unlikely to do so in a uniform way.
Plus I don’t credit the Liberal brains trust with foresight the kind of which you’re intuiting to them.
Speaking of 457 visas, someone brought up that the Netherlands have an equivalent visa, however employers taking on workers on this visa needs to pay workers 150% of what the equivalent local worker is paid. Incentive to hire local before taking overseas workers.
The voices calling a housing bubble are getting louder, more frequent and more credible. Soon it will become accepted wisdom that the market is seriously out of whack. Then, suddenly one day, maybe as a result of adverse economic news, overseas developments, or even seemingly out of the blue, a rush for the exits.
I doubt that the crash could be held off until the next election, no matter what the spivs do. If I were a young person now with a good job, I’d rent and try to save as best I could until the crash comes. Then, if I still had a job afterwards, I’d consider buying then. Now I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking it.
In April, May calls June election.
Steve777:
Im a young person holding out. Im waiting for a crash to then swoop in and buy.
Earlier today I got an email from WA Labor asking me to take a survey about why I volunteered for the Labor party. For those who are interested in the volunteer statistics from the election:
“We made over 500,000 calls, doorknocked nearly 200,000 houses and recruited 2000 new volunteers.”.
Those numbers do not include the trade union phone banking and door knocking effort.
An amazing effort on behalf of WA Labor, and I’d like to give my thanks to those on here from the east who phone banked for us and helped kick Colin out.
I read in one of the articles about the L/NP’s review of the 2016 federal election campaign an anonymous comment from a senior L/NP that they were living in fear of what the progressive ground campaign was going to achieve in the next federal election.
The next federal election campaign is going to be an exciting time to be alive.
Someone needs to send Mal a copy of Colin Barnett’s concession speech so that he can learn what a dignified concession speech looks like. There will be plenty of L/NP blood to clean off the floor of L/NP HQ on election night.
Great one, Dan.