BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

  1. I’m not actually bagging Corbyn for being a Brexit supporter – I can understand the reasoning on both sides – but let’s not fantasize that in Corbyn’s heart of hearts he can be a fierce warrior in this election for some mythical Bremain scenario that is no longer a possibility.

    I also acknowledged that in the earlier post. I think Europe would allow them to remain. To say it is some mythical impossibility is Murdoch Speak.

  2. I am sure the LNP have been getting feedback that their drifting ways and laid back attitude are not going down well with the electorate, and so they have had a nice fireside chat with themselves to come up with ideas to ‘galvanise’ the electorate.

    But being idiots they have decided to go for ‘announceables’ over substance. They truly have the stink of the last term of the NSW Labor govt about them. Not quite got the Obeid level of open corruption nor the Tele spending every day tearing them apart. But the same focus on announcing something everyone knew was going absolutely no where; if they even bothered to notice; which they didn’t. Fiddling around with leadership, riven by factions, incapable of doing the basic job of governing. Dead for years before the election as the populace waited impatiently to cremate the rotting remains.

  3. Should have been clearer. The bit I acknowledged in the earlier post was that Corbyn didn’t appear to be a very strong “remain” advocate.

  4. Question –

    To say it is some mythical impossibility is Murdoch Speak.

    Good grief.

    I’m not talking about the immutability of article 50 activation or whatnot.

    Bremain is not a possibility because of the politics. That thing that you seem to just wave away.

    Nothing is ever set in stone – even when Brexit is complete the door is not necessarily completely shut forever. Future Brits may decide they want to change their minds and go cap-in-hand begging to be let into the European club again. The EU itself may dissolve. The EU may dissolve and a new European entity may be formed learning the lessons of the EU failure, and Britain may hop on something that doesn’t require freedom of movement. The EU may reform itself to be a much looser structure.

    The future in general is not written in stone (well, except for climate change, that is pretty much written in stone now). But Brexit is going to happen now. Short of black swan events it is a certainty, and I say that without reading a word that Murdoch or his minions have put out about it.

    What happens for the UK and the EU after Brexit … who knows.

  5. JReidy
    “Michael Moore talked of towns in the Midwest where the Democrat votes were in single figures. And then on the other hand there is Washington DC.”

    There a great many counties where the Dem vote is in single digits, especially in rural areas. If you can tack a huge swathe of these underpopulated rural counties onto a piece of suburbia of the nearest city, you have a fairly safe Republican seat. This is the way Repugs gerrymander (when they can): seats that are not wholly rural (which would be ultra-safe) and not wholly suburban/exurban (which might be marginal).
    Meanwhile, the Dem voters are ‘herded’ into seats in the densely populated centre of the city.

  6. Jackol,
    Many here have said that if Corbyn did make it about Brexit, it could make the election very interesting. I happen to agree.

    That doesn’t mean it is going to happen, or that I (or others) think it will. You are a bit quick to patronise me about certainties that exist only in your head.

  7. It seems strange to me, the idea that Britain would vote in a Tory majority in 2015 and in 2017, but sprinkle in a Brexit vote in 2016 to stick it to the establishment.

  8. Andrew Leigh‏Verified account @ALeighMP · 3h3 hours ago

    Funnily, Barnaby Joyce’s talking points on the APVMA move don’t mention that it’ll cost more, deliver less & disrupt hundreds of workers.

  9. Bonza,
    As many have suggested, May going to the polls when she already has a working majority suggests she can see Brexit is going to be a complete train wreck and wants to push the next election as far back as she can.

  10. Question
    What do you imagine will happen to the value of the GBP£? May’s announcement gave it a boost (which is good for me). Is it still headed for a cliff or do you think it will improve further?

  11. What is it with Aussie IT?

    All Australian states and territories have now abandoned a trial of online NAPLAN tests this year due to technical glitches that could disadvantage students.

    A pilot of the online literacy and numeracy test is in disarray, with the Victorian, Western Australian and ACT governments announcing on Wednesday that they would withdraw from the trial and South Australian and Queensland ditching it earlier this month.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/all-australian-states-abandon-online-naplan-due-to-glitches-20170419-gvnj6j.html

  12. Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    Dan Gulberry
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    First Dog On The Moon’s guide to preparing for nuclear war. Are you ready?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/first-dog-on-the-moons-guide-to-preparing-for-nuclear-war-are-you-ready

    I don’t know you youngins, what do they teach you at school.
    Please both feet firmly on the ground;
    Put you head between your legs in the full brace position;
    And kiss your A** good buy.

  13. Bonza,
    I would not pretend to know. Ask Soros : )

    I personally think Brexit itself (forgetting elections) would not be great for the UK economy, or the currency in the long term.

  14. Lizzie
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:57 pm
    mari

    Email support@crikey.com.au
    I questioned them about a subscription and got a reply within 2 days.

    Thanks Lizzie
    Found that email about 10 minutes after I posted my cmoment. A very nice lady called Jess replied almost straight away all sorted now. She is also following up on the 2 telephone numbers

  15. I notice that all the crims drive expensive cars. It would hurt their pride to be seen in a common —, I suppose.

    Oueida, one of Australia’s most influential organised crime figures when he was arrested in 2011, has been described in court as the “new Tony Mokbel”.

    Police describe him as highly charismatic, intelligent and influential. At the time of his arrest, police alleged he had $6 million in a Swiss bank account, a light plane, a $2.8 million mansion, a Ferrari, and suspected property and business interests in Lebanon, the Solomon Islands, Abu Dhabi and Pakistan.

    Senior police feared Oueida’s release from prison would disrupt the delicate balance of power between warring factions in the city’s north-west, the epicentre of Melbourne’s soaring gun crime.

    Fairfax Media is not suggesting Oueida is linked to the shootings.

    He is an associate of the Comanchero bikie gang, and the notorious Haddara and Kheir crime families.

    Police now fear there will be reprisals, potentially ramping-up the tit-for-tat shootings over control of the drug trade after key players were jailed.

    Shooting the 41-year-old outside a mosque where he prayed regularly broke what little was left of an unwritten code between the factions, in which shootings were not permitted in front of families and children.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/major-crime-kingpin-mohammed-oueida-shot-as-he-leaves-melbourne-mosque-20170418-gvnhdd.html

  16. Bonza.
    May’s crystal Ball on Brexit (and she has had to go into the detail) would concentrate on the political. I’m not sure we can extrapolate that to the currency.

  17. Lizzie

    Oueida, 41, sustained a single gunshot wound to his abdomen and he was taken to hospital by his two associates – aged 41 and 53 – in a 1998 LS400 Lexus sedan.

    That he was taken to hospital in a 30 yo car is a strange detail to include!

  18. mari @ #1072 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    Lizzie
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:57 pm
    mari
    Email support@crikey.com.au
    I questioned them about a subscription and got a reply within 2 days.
    Thanks Lizzie
    Found that email about 10 minutes after I posted my cmoment. A very nice lady called Jess replied almost straight away all sorted now. She is also following up on the 2 telephone numbers

    Thanks for that. I will keep a lookout for changes.
    The numbers I have at present are:-
    1800 985 502 and
    03 8623 9900
    The email address is as given by Lizzie
    support@crikey.com.au
    These requests come up from time to time and I have made business cards with the information (for my own benefit mostly) .
    (◐.̃◐) Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  19. Sorry I couldn’t give you some bad certainty : )
    I saw Trump talking down the US$ recently. Most governments see a lower currency as a desirable way to make exports more competitive.

  20. CTaR1
    ‘Corbyn simply comes across as totally gormless.’
    Not enough gorm to be totally gormless.
    I would rate him at around 90% gormless, 5% utterly vacuous, and 5% grim determination to hang onto the nothingness of Opposition.

  21. I still maintain that if Abbott gets Turnbull’s goat too much then Turnbull will just walk.

    His ego has already been sated (he got to PM, after all), but if it all gets too much of a bloody effort then he’ll cite “wanting to spend more time with the grandkids” or whatever, and leave all those ungrateful bastards to fend for themselves.

    I also still maintain that, in this event, they will go back to Abbott. Two reasons: firstly, they don’t have any other ‘tried and true’ leader and, secondly; they know that Abbott wants it and he’ll continue to snipe and undermine until he gets it back.

    I still believe this will happen before the next election, which will be fought between Shorten and Abbott. Shorten will be our next PM 😀

  22. Good Morning

    I just heard a presser on citizenship changes from Turnbull and Dutton. It sounded to me like resurrecting the white Australia policy. Am I wrong?

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