BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 22
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  1. ext time you go to a restaurant that’s a little better than your local Maccas, ask yourself who’s doing the cooking and what visa are they on?

    If you think that there aren’t enough Australians willing and able to become chefs, what is the evidence for that claim?
    The fact that employers are exploiting an immigration system that gives them access to temporary foreign workers with limited knowledge of their rights does not demonstrate lack of local capacity to do those jobs.

  3. It is highly likely that Brexit will cause the breakup of the UK. The tories are getting in while they can before the disaster that brexit will be becomes apparent to the kippers and the dumb tory voters.

    The EU is going to demand the UK meets its full obligations before leaving. There will be no trade deal before agreements finalised and obligations met. EU agencies on banking and medicines currently in London will be moved to Europe costing 1,000 jobs. And so on.

    Northern Ireland will have to cone to an accomodation with the Irish Republic and Scotland will choose Europe over being ruled by an entrenched English Tory government.

  4. Bernard’s theory on why Super is a renewed right-wing target. Article paywalled.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/13/why-the-split-on-super-for-housing/
    Apr 13, 2017
    Why the split on super for housing?
    The push to allow superannuation to be used for housing is part of a wider right-wing attack on super, a sector deeply hated by many Liberals.
    Bernard Keane Politics Editor

    The government split over the idea of allowing people to use their superannuation to buy houses has turned into yet another divide within the government along moderate/right lines. Behold the list of backers of the idea, at least according to The Australian: Tony Abbott, Michael Sukkar, Zed Seselja, Craig Kelly, Angus Taylor. All from the Liberal’s right faction. Right-wing LNP minister Matt Canavan backs the idea too.

    …………..

    This handily gives away exactly why the right is lining up to back an idea that is universally regarded as a dog: it’s not just about the war on Turnbull, but about the long-term Liberal war on superannuation. For many Liberals, mention superannuation and a red mist descends, they start frothing at the mouth and screaming about “venal unions”. So irrational is the hatred that they ignore the fact that industry super funds are equally run by both unions and their own allies, employer groups, as well as ignoring that those employer/union funds oufperform funds run by the big banks. You’d think the Liberal party would be playing up the remarkable and consistent contribution of Australia’s businesses to a retirement incomes system that is well-regarded around the world in spite of its high fees — but no.

  5. C@Tmomma

    Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:03 pm
    I, for one, am quite sad that Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t been able to transform the enthusiasm for his election by the rank and file members of the UK Labour Party into momentum in the political sphere.</blockquote.
    As am I BUT we need to take into account the Feral UK RW press, hello Dirty Digger, Daily Mail, Torygraph etc, The election of Corbyn elicited the most hysterical OTT headlines since the Scottish referendum. It was up there with articles about how Scotland voting to leave would threaten world peace !! I kid you not those papers published such claims. I knew and still know SFA about Corbyn and what he proposes but the OTT told me he had the right people worried.

  6. Grimace,
    Good on WA Labor! Feeling what a groundswell movement is like. It’s how Labor started, by getting out into the paddocks, the workplaces and the homes of the voters. It’s how we’ll stay connected to them too. All we need is the commitment of good people like you and briefly and the over 2000 other volunteers in WA to keep up the good work and the momentum. 🙂

  7. Poroti,
    I agree with your sentiments, however it seems that Corbyn was unable to translate his momentum in the streets to killer blows against the Tories. I think Bill Shorten is probably the best example of how, to succeed against Mordor and his minions and the Tories, you have to absorb all their blows whilst at the same time floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee. 🙂

  8. Thanks for posting the excerpt of Keane’s article on super Leroy, I read it at the time and it explains the rights antipathy to super, especially super linked with unions.

    The reason why unions are linked and the origin of the Libs dislike, is that the first industry super schemes were linked to awards, you had to be employed under a particular award , and forgone a wage increase, to qualify for the original scheme.

    It was only some years later (around 1990) that it became a universal scheme.

  9. I am not sure what the UK Labor party stands for these days. Does Corbin have any main issues that would make a difference in the coming election, I fear not? Tony has a lot to answer for.

  10. C@Tmomma

    I blame the Poms, they seem to like being whipped by Eton bred Toffs but then the French did call masochism ‘The English Disease’ 🙂

  11. And that’s the thing with Tony Abbott. He couches the Tory antipathy to Super in a seeming concern for Young People who cannot afford to buy a house. When he knows that the ‘remedy’ he is suggesting will just drive prices up further. He could have done something about Housing Affordability when he was Prime Minister but he didn’t and he was happy to just let prices keep rising and rising. The man is a toad.

  12. c@tmomma @ #806 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

    Grimace,
    Good on WA Labor! Feeling what a groundswell movement is like. It’s how Labor started, by getting out into the paddocks, the workplaces and the homes of the voters. It’s how we’ll stay connected to them too. All we need is the commitment of good people like you and briefly and the over 2000 other volunteers in WA to keep up the good work and the momentum.

  15. bemused @ #812 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    c@tmomma @ #806 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

    Grimace,
    Good on WA Labor! Feeling what a groundswell movement is like. It’s how Labor started, by getting out into the paddocks, the workplaces and the homes of the voters. It’s how we’ll stay connected to them too. All we need is the commitment of good people like you and briefly and the over 2000 other volunteers in WA to keep up the good work and the momentum.

    :sigh: I give up! Continually ambushed by emoticons.

  18. Ides
    If the NI parties can’t form an executive in 3 weeks the options are another election or direct rule. The deadline has already been extended and there does not appear to be much hope. Direct rule may well be imposed to prevent NI disrupting Brexit but what if there is a decision to hold another assembly poll on the same day as the General election?
    We would have a unique experience of two polls being held on the same day using the same constituencies but one would be counted first past the post and the other by modified Hare-Clarke. Would there be any differentiation in issues or would the main issue for both be Brexit – the only major party supporting Brexit is the rapidly declining DUP

  23. Not that anyone asked, but I learned today that I just got offered a paid internship that I applied for a month ago. Only problem is it will require me moving from Sydney to Melbourne. Don’t currently own a car or have very much disposable income and the move is pretty daunting, but I’m thinking I might go for it.

  31. Think I’m gonna love watching Corbyn-loving Aussie Greens voters who tried to tell us ALPers how good he was get smacked upside the head with reality come the UK election.

  37. Certainly if I were Scottish I would be wanting an opportunity to vote to leave a union with an entrenched Tory regime, probably until 2027.

  38. https://www.thenation.com/article/in-south-korea-war-hysteria-is-seen-as-an-american-problem/
    In South Korea, War Hysteria Is Seen as an American Problem
    The big issue here is the May 9 presidential election, which is expected to bring a progressive to power.
    By Tim Shorrock
    Yesterday 1:52 pm

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/despite-talk-of-a-military-strike-trumps-armada-was-a-long-way-from-korea/2017/04/18/e8ef4237-e26a-4cfc-b5e9-526c3a17bd41_story.html
    Despite talk of a military strike, Trump’s ‘armada’ was a long way from Korea
    By Simon Denyer and Emily Rauhala April 18 at 7:53 AM

    Korean Politics Viewer’s Guide: I. The Lay of the Land
    https://askakorean.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/korean-politics-viewers-guide-i-lay-of.html
    II. The Parties
    http://askakorean.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/korean-politics-viewers-guide-ii-parties.html

  39. Whisper @ #809 Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 – 9:50 pm

    I am not sure what the UK Labor party stands for these days. Does Corbin have any main issues that would make a difference in the coming election, I fear not?

    I assume he’d turn it into a Brexit do-over. There was plenty of buyer’s remorse on that one. He doesn’t even have to go full “No Brexit”, just campaign on the basis of keeping the EU close and force May’s position as far to the right as possible and then point out how her plan will destroy trade and jobs and livelihoods.

  42. Think I’m gonna love watching John McTernan and his factional fellow travellers, after all those years lecturing Kevin Rudd and supporters about party unity and solidarity, engage in however much whiteanting and undermining they deem appropriate in order to make sure Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t become Prime Minster.

  44. Steve777 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 9:24 pm

    The voices calling a housing bubble are getting louder, more frequent and more credible. Soon it will become accepted wisdom that the market is seriously out of whack. Then, suddenly one day, maybe as a result of adverse economic news, overseas developments, or even seemingly out of the blue, a rush for the exits.

    I doubt that the crash could be held off until the next election, no matter what the spivs do. If I were a young person now with a good job, I’d rent and try to save as best I could until the crash comes. Then, if I still had a job afterwards, I’d consider buying then. Now I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking it.

    Generally speaking, timing the markets is something only successful in retrospect.

    Many years (decades) ago I remember Paul Clitheroe on Money saying something to the effect that those who bought shares six months before the October 1987 share market crash were still ahead at the bottom of the crash. So someone who held off or exited the market at the start of 1987, because they thought the market was overheated, would have been worse off than someone buying at that time. Of course, those buying in September were probably not so happy. Clitheroe’s advice was basically to buy when you had the money and sell when you needed it.

    Something needs to be done about house prices, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. But, with the exception of apartments, the Australian housing market is different to what we saw in Ireland, Spain and the US. There developers build housing estates which they then sell. Companies were getting finance to build without any customers having signed up. Here, the developer only sells the land, it’s up to the buyer to then build.

    If investors leave the domestic property market, and I don’t think they will in droves even if there are cuts to negative gearing and the CGT discount, then there will probably be a cooling or small drop in prices. However, I don’t see property prices halving.

    Many people don’t understand sunk cost – if their investment houses drop in value but they’re still earning rent and able to cover the mortgage money will hang on. A real reduction in house prices and improvement in affordability is going to take a long time.

    Mind you this is all just my opinion, and you know how much opinions are worth.

  45. itsthevibe Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:14 am

    Think I’m gonna love watching John McTernan and his factional fellow travellers, after all those years lecturing Kevin Rudd and supporters about party unity and solidarity, engage in however much whiteanting and undermining they deem appropriate in order to make sure Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t become Prime Minster.

    I don’t think John McTernan and his factional fellow travellers need to do anything. I think Corbyn is more than capable of ensuring a Tory win all by himself and won’t need any extra help.

    The people who know Corbyn best are the ones who work with him. They made their opinions of him known last year.

  50. In my work we get basic wages, but the half the job is paperwork, the other half is Labour work, when it’s holidays time like now, we have to work this Saturday with no overtime etc.

    Complete ripping the employees off, with basic wages, and often train new employees.

    And employees say they lowest in the sector!

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