BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 22
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  3. Swamprat, what you have said pretty much sum up what is said in this article:

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/uk-election-the-poll-theresa-may-should-easily-win-but-may-live-to-regret-20170418-gvncjj.html

    One poll put the lead over Labour much closer, at 9 per cent. And polls show the public generally like Labour’s policies, though they don’t see them as a credible government. Labour is in a dire position but a lot of its remaining seats are fairly safe, while many Conservative seats are held on small margins.

    Another potential hiccup for May is that the public is more than a little sick of politics right now, which could provoke a backlash or voter apathy.

    There is some disappointment with voters being dragged back to the elections. This is third national elections in 3 years.

    Labour may not be able to capitalise on it, but the minor parties will use it as a second referendum against brexit.

    And this election is likely to see a resurgence of the Liberal Democrats, who will campaign hard against Brexit – alongside the Scottish National Party.

    May is aware of this. The biggest anti-Brexit constituency in the country is the 18-24 age demographic, and May has called the election right in the middle of exam time. Coincidence? Perhaps not.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s the lowdown on the latest Essential poll that comes in at 54/46 for Labor. Many crossbenchers did not fare well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/19/more-voters-oppose-use-of-super-for-housing-than-support-it-guardian-essential-poll
    Paul Bongiorno writes about Abbott being in full attack mode as the budget nears.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/18/tony-abbott-attack-mode-budget-2017/
    Has Theresa May made a “courageous” decision to call a snap election?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/uk-election-the-poll-theresa-may-should-easily-win-but-may-live-to-regret-20170418-gvncjj.html
    Mark Kenny analyses Turnbull’s motives over the 457 visa announcement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-bends-to-populist-onslaught-over-457-visas-20170418-gvn1yc.html
    Katherine Murphy has a good piss take on it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/18/turnbull-swerves-from-mr-globalisation-to-australia-first-but-will-voters-buy-it
    James Massola explains the details of the visa changes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-to-abolish-457-immigration-work-visas-20170418-gvmw34.html
    Laura Tingle is not entirely convinced. Google.
    /news/politics/malcolm-turnbulls-457-visa-crackdown-shifts-politics-and-moves-the-economy-20170418-gvn6hm
    Michelle Grattan says that eyes will be on whether the government puts any squeeze in the budget on the general immigration program, which has been coming under attack from some critics in a housing affordability debate that’s run increasingly out of the government’s control.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbull-talks-tough-on-foreign-workers-deer-farmers-and-historians-off-welcome-list-76322
    And this law professor says that there is a big hole in Turnbull’s 457 visa plan. Employer-conducted labour market testing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/there-is-a-big-hole-in-malcolm-turnbulls-457-visa-plan-20170418-gvn3rx.html
    Anna Patty has a similar view.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/worst-of-old-457-visa-system-will-carry-over-into-the-new-20170418-gvn0yg.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    Elizabeth Knight wonders just who did kill off the 457 visa.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/who-killed-457-visas-20170418-gvn3a8.html
    Andrew Street has a look at Abbott’s sniping and wrecking and his right to do so.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/tony-abbott-has-the-right-to-needlessly-demolish-the-government-20170418-gvmozt.html
    David van Gogh says that we need a “soft decline” in house prices before it’s too late.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-need-a-soft-decline-in-house-prices-before-it-is-too-late-20170418-gvmr8p.html
    APVMA has handed its public servants scripted lines, to be recited in “BBQ conversations” and other “social settings”, about its controversial move out of town. Getting a bit sensitive? And for good reason.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/apvma-public-servants-given-scripts-for-bbq-conversations-over-move-to-armidale-20170418-gvmwzn.html
    Stephen Koukoulas writes that based on the performance of the economy since the last fiscal update in December 2016, the budget is likely to confirm that this is a big-spending, big-taxing government with a strategy for continuing budget deficits and rising debt as it funds some of its pet projects.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/19/the-australian-budget-is-likely-to-confirm-this-is-a-big-spending-big-taxing-government
    Heath Aston on Turnbull’s tough talk on gas supply before the showdown with the industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-talks-tough-on-gas-supply-before-showdown-with-industry-20170418-gvn6bf.html
    The IMF reckons we are in for an improvement in growth and employment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-economy-to-boom-as-unemployment-drops-imf-20170418-gvnd6x.html
    Turnbull government MP Stuart Robert says he bankrolled two of his staff members to run for the Gold Coast council to prevent the Labor Party and unions getting a “foothold” on his political turf. After all he only tossed in a lazy $60000 for a council election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-mp-stuart-robert-defends-30k-donations-at-corruption-hearing-a-labor-foothold-was-not-appealing-20170418-gvn36d.html
    Religion is being further politicised as Indonesia heads into elections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/religion-politicised-as-tense-jakarta-election-goes-down-to-the-wire-20170418-gvn2in.html
    Donald Trump’s aides have abruptly postponed a meeting to determine whether the US should remain in the Paris climate agreement, with an unlikely coalition of fossil fuel firms, environmental groups and some Republicans calling on the president to stick with the deal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/18/trump-paris-climate-agreement-climate-change

  6. Section 3 . . .

    The growing divide between urbanites and rural residents is shaping politics everywhere, from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-urbanrural-divide-shaping-politics-around-the-world-20170417-gvmknk.html
    Australia’s best and brightest public servants are being poorly utilised in policy responses to key issues including housing affordability, a former high-ranking official has warned.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-poorly-used-in-policy-and-governing-former-pmc-deputy-secretary-20170418-gvmopt.html
    Can a solution to the housing affordability crisis be found by looking back to what happened post WW2?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/weve-had-a-major-housing-crisis-before–and-this-is-how-they-fixed-it-20170418-gvmsoe.html
    Meanwhile the Reserve Bank has warned regulators could take drastic action to slow Sydney and Melbourne’s runaway housing markets.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/reserve-bank-warns-regulators-could-take-drastic-action-to-cool-sydney-melbourne-housing-market-20170418-gvmszs.html
    Rob Burgess on the battle between the banks and the economy.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/04/18/kpmg-negative-gearing/
    Malcolm Turnbull’s trip to India has netted taxpayers a $1 billion gift to mining giant Adani and zero free trade deals, but there are some neat holiday snaps with India’s PM Narendra Modi says Mungo MacCallum.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-turnbulls-1-billion-non-trade-deal-in-india,10213
    Well-known Australian fashion companies are keeping their overseas supply chains cloaked in secrecy, with the likes of Wish, Oxford and Roger David refusing to detail their efforts to stamp out exploitation and sweatshop conditions.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/oxford-wish-and-roger-david-slammed-for-their-silence-on-their-supply-chains-20170415-gvlg9w.html
    Is this elite spiv behaviour?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-schools-push-for-separate-indigenous-campuses-to-cash-in-on-federal-funds-20170418-gvmoa3.html
    Will terrorists be doing something nasty in the lead up to the French elections?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/two-arrested-in-france-planned-violent-attack-ahead-of-elections-minister-20170418-gvncl4.html

  7. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    New research shows almost one in four young Australians are likely to have a serious mental health problem.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mental-illness-rates-rise-in-young-people-mission-australia-and-black-dog-institute-20170417-gvm93y.html
    Why Turkey and the Muslim world need Erdogan – according to an Australian Islamic organisation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-turkey-and-the-muslim-world-needs-erdogan-20170418-gvmpyw.html
    This SMH editorial thinks otherwise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/turkey-is-a-lesson-in-how-democracy-can-end-as-if-we-needed-it-20170418-gvmt9r.html
    Safety concerns about rides at the Rye Carnival were raised months before a young boy was critically injured at the annual event on Easter Monday.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/boy-remains-in-critical-condition-after-falling-from-ride-at-rye-carnival-20170417-gvmkcb.html

    Ron Tandberg with APVMA’s scripted lines.

    A great effort from Broelman here with a missile threat to the government.

    David Rowe with the skills test.

    John Shakespeare with the North Korean suicide bomber.

    Jon Kudelka doesn’t think there is much to the 457 visa announcement.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/89ab43397c2b059f7a1cb58a21eedc9b

  10. I’m getting a bit pissed off by many from “teh left” writing off UK Labour’s prospects in the UK election. They may in the event be correct but chortling over it at this stage is at the best unnecessarily nasty and at the worst may be positively damaging to those prospects.

    Personally I wouldn’t be surprised for them to do surprisingly well. There is a strong possibility for May to emerge with DECREASED authority to deal with Brexit.

  11. It will be good to see neoliberal Labour MPs, who keep getting comprehensively rejected by Labour members and the wider public, fail to capitalise on imminent election. The next Labour leader will either be Corbyn himself of somebody with substantially the same policy approach. Third Way neoliberal insanity is finished within UK Labour.

  12. Trump Show Signs Of Mental Deterioration By Getting Paul Ryan’s Name Wrong In His Hometown

    While speaking in Paul Ryan’s hometown of Janesville, Wisconsin, the President repeatedly got Ryan’s name wrong and tried to cover up his mistakes by spewing some nonsensical gibberish to the befuddled crowd. This is a president who may not be holding up well under the demands of the job.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/18/trump-show-signs-mental-deterioration-paul-ryans-wrong-hometown.html

  13. Impotent Trump White House Lied About Sending An Aircraft Carrier To Deter North Korea

    Remember that aircraft carrier that Trump sent to deter North Korea? It turns out that was all a big lie, as the aircraft carrier was never going to the Sea of Japan and was traveling 3,500 miles in the opposite direction.

    “The problem was, the carrier, the Carl Vinson, and the four other warships in its strike force were at that very moment sailing in the opposite direction, to take part in joint exercises with the Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/18/impotent-trump-white-house-lied-sending-aircraft-carrier-deter-north-korea.html

  14. Trump Scheme Backfires As Millennial Women Can’t Stand Ivanka Trump

    The woman who is supposed to be President Trump’s “in” with women is not so much. Especially among millennial women. They really, really disapprove of Ivanka.

    Among women age 18-34, only 21% have a favorable view of Ivanka Trump, while 52% have an unfavorable view according to a Survey Monkey poll.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/18/ivanka-trump-positioned-champion-women-millennial-women-buying.html

  15. AJM

    Given the pretty even divide between pro and anti brexit in UK, there is ample opportunity to cause an upset. If they mobilised the young people a campaign against brexit may succed or deplete the Tory majority.

  16. Some earliier news n ot quite as it seemed.

    Aircraft Carrier Wasn’t Sailing to Deter North Korea, as U.S. Suggested

    The problem was, the carrier, the Carl Vinson, and the four other warships in its strike force were at that very moment sailing in the opposite direction, to take part in joint exercises with the Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/aircraft-carrier-north-korea-carl-vinson.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1

  18. In May there will be local council elections in UK. It is expected that Labour will be significantly removed from its last toehold in Scotland.

    Of 32 councils, labour controls or shares control of 21. The SNP only 11, i think.

    Polls have Labour support in Scotland down to around 15%. Glasgow, where once Labour totally dominated, is expected to strongly go SNP. It will be the end of an era.

    It was the Labour Party’s choice to choose blairism and unionism over Scotland. They will get their just rewards.

  20. I’m sure ScoMo and Cormann would scoff at this, even though it reduces Centrelink staff. .

    It might seem that giving the age pension to everyone is inherently unfair if millionaires are getting it too.

    But this could be fixed by winding back some of the super tax breaks, which disproportionately benefit the wealthy.

    You’d want to tackle family trusts while you’re at it, because financial advisers are already touting this as a tax-effective alternative to super.

    You’d also fund it through tax. Whiteford says this is how it’s done in New Zealand and parts of Europe; you have a universal age pension, but it’s taxable.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/a-universal-age-pension-could-benefit-younger-generations-too-20170418-gvn0sq.html

  21. Stephen Koukoulas writes that based on the performance of the economy since the last fiscal update in December 2016, the budget is likely to confirm that this is a big-spending, big-taxing government with a strategy for continuing budget deficits and rising debt as it funds some of its pet projects.

    All Labor have to do in Question Time during the Budget session is start singing out across the chamber:

    ‘Hey Big Spenders!
    Spend a little money on me!’
    🙂

  22. A comment left at the Grauniad article on Truffles’ 457 crap mentions something else the arsehole Howard did to screw Australia.

    ……………………here are two major points that seem to fail attracting
    attention if this jingoistic pronouncement is to succeed.

    1. The re-forming of a Labour Market Analysis branch within Govt.

    To support the massive immigration programs up until the late 1990’s
    (the beginning of the Howard reign) Govt. resourced such an entity
    that had a rudimentary “skills inventory” of the Australian workforce
    and a reasonable understanding of industries needs both current and
    future. Whilst it had failings, this entity was largely able to match
    skills needs to recruitment needs and was used to inform not only
    migration but also vocational training incl. trade indentures,
    technical and university courses and the relocation support for
    labour.
    This branch was closed down and industry bodies became the arbiter
    of such information to Govt…….any concept of planning has since been
    a complete shermozzle based on guesswork and partisan data.

    2. The evisceration of vocational training in Australia……………..

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/18/turnbull-swerves-from-mr-globalisation-to-australia-first-but-will-voters-buy-it

  23. Good to know that there are varieties of “Spivs”.

    The “Elite Spivs” at the “Users and Abusers” ball (held in conjunction with the LNP “Masque” at Christmas; would see the downmarket Spivs in a separate corner to their better class of conmen cousins.
    I fancy that old fashioned double breasted pin stripe suits would abound with many a “Mandrake the Magician” cape with red silk lining.
    The hat check guys and dolls are just beyond my imagination.
    Methinks I need to consult with the regimental bear and perhaps his friend Bobo.
    I did ask Brown Bear what he thought of Hon. Julie Bishop MP on the advent of her warning of danger, danger Will Robinson – that lot over there are out to get us. Brown Bear (alias the regimental bear) gave me the dumb insolence stare and declined to answer. A very reasonable attitude.
    Ms. Bishop’s next announcement may well be to tell us that the sun will rise again tomorrow.
    Thanks BK for the dawn patrol, and in particular, the cartoons.
    Fresh coffee, I must have fresh coffee. ☕

  24. Cat

    Yes I agree. About time to attack the economic myth. Labor should also have the debt truck as a stunt as well. It seems the Media political pundits understand that stunt.

  25. Also on this story,

    Donald Trump’s aides have abruptly postponed a meeting to determine whether the US should remain in the Paris climate agreement, with an unlikely coalition of fossil fuel firms, environmental groups and some Republicans calling on the president to stick with the deal.

    We have this contribution from The Washington Post:

    President Trump has reversed himself on a lot of campaign promises lately, and some have rushed to credit him with learning on the job. While one hopes he is capable of this, his reversals also reflect the less admirable factor that his original campaign agenda was mostly fraudulent — and is now colliding violently with reality.

    One excellent illustration of this is Trump’s vow to pull the United States out of the Paris climate deal. And that’s why it’s good news that Trump is now seriously considering remaining in the accord, now that some of his most senior advisers are apprising him of the folly of withdrawing from it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/04/18/trump-may-be-about-to-break-another-big-promise-thats-very-good-news/?tid=hybrid_collaborative_2_na&utm_term=.c0b4564d0d87

  27. PhonexRED

    as the aircraft carrier was never going to the Sea of Japan and was traveling 3,500 miles in the opposite direction.

    Well, not directly.

    A new ‘batch’ on Marines arrived in Darwin recently so the task force will be exercising with them first.

    It will take them 5 days to get to Korea. The 25th is the anniversary of the formation of the SK Army. I expect the task force will be around for it.

  28. Talking of debt, who are these people that loaned money to the Australian government? Who is getting the $48m a day in interest that Australia pays for having this debt?

  30. The best explanation for not knowing where the Vinson TF was heading is that, since Trump has apparently not cheated anyone in a business deal in Australia, he probably does not know where it is.

  31. The great gas lie rolls on.
    There is no shortage of gas in Australia. There is no need for fracking, disturbing water supplies and creating methane leaks.
    There is no shortage of gas in Australia, only a shortage of cheap gas.
    What has happened is this:
    1) Gas suppliers were price takers before they could export to Asia
    2) They invested billions in gas liquefaction, to exploit the export market – good business
    3) Now all pricing is set by export markets
    4) There is an abundant supply of gas, despite the lies of gas suppliers. You can get as much gas as you like in Australia. All you have to do is pay the price, set by the suppliers, which is underwritten by export pricing.
    The only way to overcome this is to create a state owned oil/gas company. When Turnbull puts the blame back on state government’s regulation of gas exploration, he is simply supporting his donors in the fossil fuel industry.

  32. This is also interesting to note on the Georgia Special Election today to replace Trump’s Health and Human Services Minister:

    WHITE HOUSE WILL CLOSELY WATCH TODAY’S GEORGIA ELECTION: Axios reports that the White House is taking a keen interest in today’s special election in Georgia, in which Democrat Jon Ossoff is likely to win easily but may not reach 50 percent to avoid a runoff:

    Why Trump cares: Whether he likes it or not, the media will portray this election as an early verdict on his presidency. The year’s first special election, in Kansas’ usually reliable deep-red 4th district, was way closer than it should’ve been. A loss in Georgia would further weaken Trump and make his legislative agenda — which relies on him holding his popularity like a knife over recalcitrant Republicans — a fair bit tougher.

    And as we’ve seen, Trump’s “popularity” already has totally cowed congressional Republicans into doing his bidding. (Not. And today could make it worse.)

  33. From the Democrats’ perspective:

    WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN GEORGIA: Nate Cohn notes that turnout will be very unpredictable, as this is a special election, but the early voting turnout should boost Democrats’ confidence more generally:

    Democratic turnout [in the early voting] was impressive by any measure. It’s much higher than it was in the early voting in the 2014 midterm election. … Even if Mr. Ossoff falls short, a strong showing — over 45 percent of the vote — would suggest that he would be very competitive in the June runoff.

    As Cohn notes, polls suggest Ossoff will fall short of 50 percent to avoid a runoff, but the possibility that Ossoff could win outright can’t be ruled out, given how hard it is to poll special elections.

    * WHAT DEMOCRATS HOPE FOR IN GEORGIA: David Drucker gets the readout from Democratic operatives monitoring the race:

    Democratic insiders will be watching how close Ossoff gets to 50 percent. Privately, they concede he is headed to a runoff. But operatives say that in a district where the Democrat typically ends up in the 30s, they’ll be satisfied with anything north of 40 percent, hopeful that it will position Ossoff to compete in the runoff.

    The Republican (Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price) won here by nearly 24 points in 2016, but Trump won it by only 1.5 points, so the question is whether Trump’s awful performance puts it within Democrats’ reach.

  34. Good morning,

    The timing of the Turnbull announcement yesterday is interesting.

    It looks like housing affordability being the centrepiece of the upcoming budget has been dropped. A bit of turbulence must have been floating around the corridors of government. I can just see Malcolm calling around to his ministers asking if they had anything in their bottom drawer he could now use. Lucky his new best bud, Dutton, had just the thing.

    I am sure Scott will be happy as well. Looks like he has now been demoted to the cheap seats. 24 or so days to go until budget night and Morrison has been benched.

    Things must be dire especially if Turnbull is now supping with Dutton.

    Meeting with the gas companies today so it will be interesting what, if anything, comes out of that for Malcolm.

    Cheers.

  35. Trump, on the other hand, with one of his classic Fake Tweets, is trying to swing it the other way:

    TRUMP TRIES TO JUICE TURNOUT IN GEORGIA RACE: Good morning, Mr. President:

    Follow
    Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
    Democrat Jon Ossoff would be a disaster in Congress. VERY weak on crime and illegal immigration, bad for jobs and wants higher taxes. Say NO
    8:38 PM – 18 Apr 2017
    11,672 11,672 Retweets 41,064 41,064 likes

    This pretty much ensures that Tuesday’s results will be widely read as a referendum on Trump’s tenure thus far. (In my view, we should avoid overinterpreting the outcome, no matter what happens.)

  36. Hmm Malcolm Trump trumpets “‘Straya First” as his new war cry and by strange coincidence as MT was 457ing Trumpenstein was to do virtually the same.

    US President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order which will make it more difficult for US companies to bring in foreign workers.

    Trump is expected to sign the order while visiting the Snap-on tool company in Kenosha, Wisconsin on Tuesday.

    The order will overhaul the H1-B visa program which tech companies should use to hire high-skilled workers, but they recruit low-skilled, low-wage workers to replace working-class domestic laborers instead.

    Its “original intent (was) awarding visas to the most skilled and highest paid applicants — crucially, at such time as these reforms are eventually implemented, it will prevent the program from being used to displace American workers,” a White House official said.

    “For too long, rather than just allowing the best to come (…), the H-1B program has been applied in a bad way for US workers,” the official added.

    Some 85,000 H-1B visas are issued annually and many of them, in recent years, have been snapped…

    http://rinf.com/alt-news/newswire/trump-to-sign-executive-order-targeting-foreign-workers/

  39. The “new “rolled gold skilled visa programmes start today. Jobs for Aussies etc etc as from today.

    I wonder if Turnbull has considered that any future fu*kup or rorting that is uncovered will be under his watch, his rules. He has taken ownership so he must now carry the responsibility. Yes, he will still blame labor but Turnbull is making so much of a song and dance about how great he is and how great the changes are that any attempt to shift blame will look pretty desperate. Labor will on very strong ground in its attacks on Turnbull over rorting of this ” new” system. I am sure the unions will be into it as well. Every little screwup or misuse will be jumped on by labor and the unions.

    As well, if the budget does not include very significant increases in funds for school education, universities and TAFE then Turnbull will be even more exposed.

    As I posted yesterday I really think Turnbull, in his haste to be seen to be going something, has opened the door for labor. Huge opportunity for Shorten and labor.

    Despite all the short term fawning by the MSM and commentators over this I think Turnbull has really lost the politics.

    Cheers.

  43. This snippet, from today’s Essential poll, tells you all you need to know about why we are well on the way to global extinction …

    Voters nominated terrorism as the greatest threat to global stability and world peace (49%) with US aggression on 15%, climate change on 11%, Russian aggression on 8% and Chinese aggression on 5%.

    Are we all really that stupid?

  44. Poroti

    Hmm Malcolm Trump trumpets “‘Straya First” as his new war cry and by strange coincidence as MT was 457ing Trumpenstein was to do virtually the same.

    One of our former PM’s used to specialise watching what security laws the US Executive were proposing and then rushing the same through here before the US had done it. Let behind a mess of overlapping law that it going to have to be sorted out sooner or later.

  45. Labor has just announced that it will put the question about dual citizenship of the Bob Day replacement to the High Court. I just heard it on ABC24.

  46. player one @ #893 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 9:05 am

    This snippet, from today’s Essential poll, tells you all you need to know about why we are well on the way to global extinction …

    Voters nominated terrorism as the greatest threat to global stability and world peace (49%) with US aggression on 15%, climate change on 11%, Russian aggression on 8% and Chinese aggression on 5%.

    Are we all really that stupid?

    Right wingers COUNT on it!

  48. People respond to what they see and read. Perception is reality. It should be remembered that PB posters ( myself definitely included ) are not ” normal ” voters. We are political animals. What we pick over every day means little to the ordinary voter.

    What I find interesting about the Essential polling is US aggression is in the top three concerns, well above Chinese aggression.

    I think US aggression is sub titled Trump aggression in voters minds.

    Cheers.

  49. The story about Trump’s armada actually sailing away from North Korea exposes serious communication defects within the Pentagon and Trump’s office. As commander-in-chief, Trump is theoretically responsible for this stuff up but of course we know it will all be the fault of others.

    (CNN)As the White House was talking about sending a naval “armada” to the Korean peninsula, the very ships in question were on their way to participate in military exercises in the Indian Ocean, some 3,500 miles in the opposite direction.

    A senior administration official blamed a miscommunication between the Pentagon and the White House over reports that the aircraft carrier has not made its way to the Sea of Japan as an expected show of force to North Korea.

    The official blamed the mixup on a lack of follow-up with commanders overseeing the movements of the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier.

    On April 8, US Pacific Command, which oversees military operations in the region, issued a statement saying that the USS Carl Vinson and an accompanying strike group would leave Singapore and head to the Western Pacific, with a US military official telling CNN that it was a “show of force” in response to North Korea’s provocations.

    Following the announcement, President Donald Trump and some of his top aides highlighted the deployment as part of the administration’s response to Pyongyang’s recent missile tests.

    “We are sending an armada. Very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier, that I can tell you,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

    And the announcement that the Vinson had been dispatched to the region increased tensions with Pyongyang, with its official Korean Central News Agency calling the carrier’s deployment “nothing but a reckless action of aggression to aggravate the tensions in the region.”

    But soon after the Pacific Command statement, US military officials clarified to CNN that the strike group would first complete a previously scheduled military exercise with the Australian navy.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/carl-vinson-korea-trump/index.html

  50. Gas reservation policies do not necessarily force price reductions, they only guarantee supply.
    They only reduce prices if they are sufficiently aggressive to force price lowering on the local market. Supply and demand.

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