There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.
Any, educating a know-it-all like Bemused, is a waste of time.
adrian @ #632 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:41 pm
Unlikely, none of their other brain farts have had any positive effect on the polls.
Oh look Phil Coorey on the PMO drip again.
trog sorrenson @ #640 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:09 pm
Fair go Trog, there was a fair bit that Jebus didn’t get around to in the book of fairytales that Hastie bases his world view on.
Adrian,
Only a myopic Greens voter would call ending the 457 program “racism”. Go get an education in how hard it is to find work at any workplace that can access the labour-market rorts – sorry, I meant the “457 visa program”.
Farewell to the 457 visa program, and good riddance too – finally, Truffles does something I can agree with!
Mission accomplished. Watch the LNP poll figures improve on the back of this.
Because it’s Newspoll week.
Regarding Hastie I know we all disagree with him but this last Facebook post? Its not really something to get that worked up over.
It all depends upon who is benefiting from the subsidy that you are recommending be removed.
1. If its anyone who is disadvantaged or associated with a trade union or any constituency that tends to vote left (Labor, Green), then its cutting a wasteful handout to leaners.
2. If it affects miners, fossil fuels, banks, multi nationals / other big business, property investors, high income earners or other constituencies inclined to vote right, then removing or reducing that subsidy is the most monstrous act of class warfare and the greatest injustice since the Crucifixion.
Wild speculation about an early election in the UK, announcement pending
matt @ #655 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:34 pm
Yeah right. Renaming something and moving the goalposts slightly is really fixing the problem. Unscrupulous employers are still going to find a way to game the system.
No-one has asked Gina what she thinks of this. If she doesn’t get on the back of a truck with a megaphone whinging and moaning, we can assume that fundamentally nothing has changed.
Mark Kenny isn’t convinced by Turnbull’s 457 move:
Malcolm Turnbull bends to populist onslaught over 457 visas
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-bends-to-populist-onslaught-over-457-visas-20170418-gvn1yc.html
Matt, I’m sure you’ll love Peter Dutton dog whistling on 7.30, and go tell Pauline about these so called rorts. You’ll get a much more receptive audience.
Like the rest of them, I’ll judge you by the company you keep.
Ides of March
Hastie’s notion of the supreme dominance of humans is the same concept that says it’s ok to trash the planet, so long as we have jobs and growth, profits and a nice lifestyle. They have no understanding of science, ecology or broader ethics, because their education finished at Sunday school.
Dan & C@t: There is certainly that aspect to it. In the unfortunately likely event that it’s just window-dressing, my agreement will vanish.
Mark Kenny is correct on this occasion.
The rorts that do exist could be addressed quite easily, but this is racism pure and simple.
Ides:
It’s the christianist attitude that dominates the coalition partyroom that has left us with no mechanism to abate our GHGEs. It’s the same christianist attitude that sees Republican controlled states permit churches to form their own law enforcement entities, and the national govt winding back environmental protection regulations.
I hate this intrusion of religious numptyism and fundamentalism into our govt. Hastie’s facebook post is absolutely something to get worked up about in my view.
How would you like to be involved in this NSW court case?
The state’s highest court has rebuked a Sydney judge for reading aloud an epic 17-hour judgment over four days, costing taxpayers and the parties thousands of dollars in court and legal fees.
District Court Judge Garry Neilson – who courted controversy in 2015 after making comments about incest, paedophilia and homosexuality – raised the ire of two Court of Appeal judges for delivering a lengthy judgment on the bench rather than publishing written reasons.
Justice Ruth McColl, the acting president of the Court of Appeal, said Judge Neilson read aloud a 138-page judgment over four days in a Sydney courtroom last year after hearing a six-day negligence case in Wagga Wagga in May.
The case concerned a man who sued for compensation after he was thrown from a horse which bucked after a car drove past.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-judge-garry-neilson-rebuked-over-17hour-judgment-20170418-gvmu0j.html
Matt,
I hate to rain on your parade but the 457 scheme has not been dealt a death blow. It has simply had a change of name.
Many of the occupations removed are now very rarely or never used so in one respect it is just a weeding of the garden.
As well, employers continue to be reponsible for advertising vacancies in Australia prior to applying for 457 placements. As such, rorting will continue. The unions have long called for a independent body set up to oversee any and all domestic advertising for Australian workers.
Much more will be revealed over coming days as to the extent of the Turnbull fraud.
I hope someone as smart and as tuned in as you will not get caught up in the ballons, fairy floss, smoke and mirrors being pushed by Turnbull ? ( smiley face ).
Cheers.
Of course Trog puts it much better and more succinct than I, but still. You get the point 🙂
adrian @ #649 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:23 pm
My friends work in IT.
If thee is a shortage of Thai Chefs, then they should be on the migration list rather than brought in as 457s open to exploitation.
I’ve been out all day, so don’t know if these thoughts have already been posted.
Two points.
Firstly, the reason there were 20,000 more 457 visas issued by the previous Labor Government is that there was prosperity in this country under Labor, with near full employment and a need to attract temporary skilled immigrant labour.
Under the Liberals, and their asinine and destructive policies, many Australians have been reduced to subsistence living and to becoming near mendicants themselves, scrambling for whatever casual, part time and low paid menial jobs available.
Potential 457 applicants have been turned off by what they see here. They may as well starve in their own country as subject themselves to the rampant racism that abound here without any financial benefit as compensation
Secondly, the Prime Galah, has announced that future temporary work visa applicants will be subject to criminal record investigations. Why?
How many of past and present 457 visa holders have been convicted of criminal offences whilst on those visas? What percentage is that of all 457 visa holders during their visa tenure? How does that percentage compare to the percentage of criminals who are Australian born and permanent residents, compared to the rest of Australia’s population?
This criminal record nonsense is just puffery and bombast, appealing to the basest elements of Australian society; the racists, the rednecks, and the Liberal Party’s own constituency.
adrian @ #651 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:24 pm
You are a very sad person Adrian.
IMO if the Abbott/Turnbull government is to be remembered for anything it will be a sense of “confusion”. Without doubt every policy they float is greeted with this emotion. 457’s changes are just the latest. Depressingly this might be their intent.
Trog and Fess:
I dont disagree with the main thrust of your arguments. I just dont think Hastie posting on FB is really that important for us to get our nickers in knots.
Adrian,
Given that you keep company with rorters and thieves like 7/11 owners – who just loooove the 457 visa program as is – you’re in no position to pass judgment upon anyone! I’d call you a useful idiot, comrade, but to be useful, someone would actually have to believe you.
My detestation of the 457 visa program isn’t born of the least animosity toward the workers who come here under it – even including the high incidence of wage-theft and other abuse by 457 visa sponsors, it’s a rational decision on their part to take their chances and earn the extra money. Just as it’s a rational decision on our part to decide to reserve that labour pool for our own workers until we no longer have a whopping great labour surplus.
Anyone who can’t “get” that must be either an idiot or a Greens voter. But I repeat myself.
Doyley,
I hadn’t done any particular level of research on it yet; thanks for flagging the razorblade in this batch of fairy-floss Truffles is trying to sell me on.
By the way – flattery will get you everywhere with me, you smoothie 😛
Ides:
Why would you characterise the disparaging remarks about Hastie’s ignorance getting our “knickers in a knot”?
I can assure you my undies are very much not knotted. 🙂
‘This criminal record nonsense is just puffery and bombast, appealing to the basest elements of Australian society; the racists, the rednecks, and the Liberal Party’s own constituency.’
So very true.
Only the extremely gullible, the ignorant and the racist among us will be conned by this little exercise in dog-whistling.
This article tells you all about the nuts and bolts of the Visa changes. It also has quotes from the Business lobby. And great graphics:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/business-welcomes-457-visa-changes-warns-on-red-tape-20170418-gvn0rm.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
Theres May ‘to call general election on 8 June’, BBC reports.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39627690
May presser on what is expected to be calling an election in about 20 minutes.
Ides:
Whereas, just looking at some of the comments directed at others involved in the 457 visa thing I’d say represented very much people getting their knickers in a knot!
‘Adrian,
Given that you keep company with rorters and thieves like 7/11 owners…’
WTF! You have no idea who I keep ‘company with’, and it certainly isn’t 7/11 owners or anyone of that ilk.
I suggest you withdraw that remark.
Steve777:
Wow I had no idea a general election was even due in the UK.
I think with everything that’s happened, our election, Brexit, the US and WA election I’m totally electioned out!
Ides of March
It’s important to call them out.
‘You are a very sad person Adrian.’
Yeah bemused, sad when confronted by unmitigated ignorance like yours that only fuels the racism that already exists in this country. Just ask Pauline.
UK election not due until 2020.She might be resigning.
Fess:
Figure of speech used obviously in jest. Also UK General Election isnt until 2020, this is an early election (maybe) to capitalise on good polls (tory 44% lab 23%) and before Brexit gets rough.
Matt,
Read the business section article I posted. It has a 6 page Scribd list of all the categories that have been scrubbed by Turnbull. You’ll be able to see if anything that is relevant to your neck of the woods is on it. Or not. 🙂
She hasnt been PM long.Election was in 2016 I think.
May presser now.
June 8 for election.
And Jones and Co on SkyNews has a special guest on tonight…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9r-EwiVoAAxY_n?format=jpg&name=large
Trog Sorrenson
Straight from the bible Hastie bashes. Still have not heard him answer if he, like his dad, is a creationist.
cupid, ides:
Thanks. An early election makes sense given all the uncertainty following brexit and Cameron’s resignation.
A general election in UK has just been announced by Therese May for 8 June.
The ” 457 policy” announcement today has Duttons DNA all over it. Turnbull is just along for the ride, reading off the script. A willing participant but a passenger just the same.
It would be interesting to know if Morrison and Senators Cormann and Cash ( for starters ) had any input. The silence is deafening.
Cheers.
More verbal diarrhoea and publicity for Abbott. Go Tony!!
So, May announcing an election while having a reallllllly bad hair day. 🙂
poroti:
It wouldn’t surprise me at all to learn he was a creationist.
Must be a good reason to go to election after 2 years-ish