BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 22
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  1. Nicholas, I don’t know if Australians don’t want to do the job, but the asparagus picking around Dalmore east of Melbourne is exclusively picked by Vanuatian workers especially flown in during the 3 to 5 month picking season. I see this as a win win. Australia gets the veggies picked and Vanuatu gets an income. The workers often spend up big on chainsaws, electrical tools etc just before they are return to Vanuatu and take them back with them. These items are very expensive in Vanuatu.

  3. FORMER prime minister Tony Abbott has called on Treasurer Scott Morrison to scrap all new spending, cut deeper, and leave housing affordability to the states in yet another provocative intrusion into policy debates.

    Because the 2014 Budget, that Abbott was at pains to tell everyone was crafted in his office was so popular with the people, eh?

  4. Lizzie,

    Thanks for that tweet.

    Labor has been pushing increased funding for skills training and TAFE in particular.

    The education and training shortfalls that will be continued in the upcoming budget are part of the reason why I think Turnbull, in his rush to be seen to be doing something, has gifted labor a huge opportunity with his announceable today.

    Cheers.

  5. C@t:

    Vic,
    You would think that the FBI would have some willing agents stationed at every airport in the country to catch 45 on his way out.

    Surely Air Force One would be at his disposal should he wish to go to the Cayman Islands or similar? Maybe you were just being mischievous.

  6. Doyley

    More good advice!

    Jenko‏ @7_jenkinson · 4h4 hours ago

    Rebranding the 457visa makes no difference, the only thing that will replace foreign workers is fully funded #tafe training. #pvonewsday

  7. Sean Kelly’s take on today’s 457 Visa announcement by Turnbull:

    Malcolm Turnbull made an announcement today about race. Nominally it was about jobs. But it was really about race.

    Moments after the prime minister announced that 457 visas for skilled foreign workers would be abolished and replaced with a different set of visas, Pauline Hanson tweeted that “The Government will deny their tough talk on immigration & plan to ban 457 visas is because of One Nation but we all know the truth!”

    And we do.

    Hanson wasn’t exactly right, because Turnbull didn’t exactly deny it. When asked that question – an obvious question even without Hanson’s tweet (which came around the time that Turnbull began speaking) – he bumbled through an answer about it being the result of government processes.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/sean-kelly/2017/18/2017/1492498491/race-bottom-race?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Today%20%20Tuesday%2018%20April%202017&utm_content=Today%20%20Tuesday%2018%20April%202017+CID_f932b6d230aff154771f534e675c0d5a&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON#edm

  10. Tony Windsor not impressed, either.
    It still annoys me that Gina’s money helped Barnaby to replace him.

    Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor · 18m18 minutes ago

    Turnbull misses the ball again by playing race and nationalism on 457 visa issue …sad to watch Malcolm trying to outhanson Hanson .

  11. Mungo Maccallum’s latest:

    A pointless passage to India
    Turnbull’s trip to India produced very little except another PR boost for the Adani mine

    It has to be said that Malcolm Turnbull’s passage to India was a bit of a letdown.

    For starters, he played an almost inaudible second fiddle to the country’s wildly popular prime minister, Narendra Modi. Even during his favourite photo opportunity on a (somewhat) public train journey our leader was all but ignored by the rapturous crowds.

    But perhaps more importantly for his Australian audience, both the punters and the party room, he produced almost nothing in the way of announceables.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/mungo-maccallum/2017/18/2017/1492477135/pointless-passage-india

  12. markjs @ #609 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:59 pm

    Turns out Truffle’s plan to re-vamp Temp Work Visas ..is no plan at all:
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/there-is-a-big-hole-in-malcolm-turnbulls-457-visa-plan-20170418-gvn3rx.html
    ..who’dathunkit?!!..

    And the core problem which has dogged the 457 visa is being carried over to the government’s new system – employer-conducted labour market testing.
    Surely the spivs wouldn’t take advantage of this!

  14. Federal Government backbencher Stuart Robert says he bankrolled the campaigns of two independent candidates in last year’s Gold Coast council election to stop Labor gaining power.

    Mr Robert, the member for the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, has denied any wrongdoing while testifying before the Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC).

    The CCC is looking at claims of candidate misconduct during the Gold Coast, Ipswich and Moreton Bay local government elections.

    Mr Robert told the inquiry he helped two former staffers who decided to run as Gold Coast council independents because he feared they would come up against union-backed opponents.

    “$50,000 or $60,000 to two candidates is a lot of money by community standards, I appreciate it,” he said.

    Mr Robert said he did not normally get involved in local politics, but feared “serious implications” for his own political future if Labor came to power.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-18/stuart-robert-bankrolled-independent-council-candidates/8451346

  15. c@tmomma @ #603 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:54 pm

    FORMER prime minister Tony Abbott has called on Treasurer Scott Morrison to scrap all new spending, cut deeper, and leave housing affordability to the states in yet another provocative intrusion into policy debates.
    Because the 2014 Budget, that Abbott was at pains to tell everyone was crafted in his office was so popular with the people, eh?

    Oh please do it!

  16. bk @ #612 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:04 pm

    markjs @ #609 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:59 pm

    Turns out Truffle’s plan to re-vamp Temp Work Visas ..is no plan at all:
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/there-is-a-big-hole-in-malcolm-turnbulls-457-visa-plan-20170418-gvn3rx.html
    ..who’dathunkit?!!..

    And the core problem which has dogged the 457 visa is being carried over to the government’s new system – employer-conducted labour market testing.
    Surely the spivs wouldn’t take advantage of this!

    In IT all they do is advertise a job.
    When an Aussie applicant is interviewed they find that the responsibilities are about 2 levels higher and the pay about 2 levels lower.
    It is just a ruse to get no Aussie prepared to take the job so they can pick up the phone and whistle up a 457.

  17. BK..

    Truffles is doing a ‘Clayton’s’ revamp & name change of Temporary Work Visas for ONE reason only..

    ..to bash Bill Shorten..

  20. lizzie @ #599 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    Ending 457 visas & at same time underfunding education, skills & training risks skills shortage. Need to lift the skills side to avoid that

    Kouk nails my thoughts on 457s.

    Any jobs listed under 457 should have their education funding assessed to address the shortfall and once the shortage is addressed the job should be removed from this category.

    If you’re not going to address the education side then the shortfall should be addressed through skilled migration.

    Of course it’s not an either/or situation as you could use both together to reduce the shortfall.

  21. barney in go dau @ #620 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    lizzie @ #599 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    Ending 457 visas & at same time underfunding education, skills & training risks skills shortage. Need to lift the skills side to avoid that

    Kouk nails my thoughts on 457s.
    Any jobs listed under 457 should have their education funding assessed to address the shortfall and once the shortage is addressed the job should be removed from this category.
    If you’re not going to address the education side then the shortfall should be addressed through skilled migration.
    Of course it’s not an either/or situation as you could use both together to reduce the shortfall.

    Except that employers have demonstrated themselves to be completely uninterested in training people. They want someone else to pay and for a worker to turn up on day one with 110% of what the employer requires without any actual work done by the employer.

  22. I don’t know if Australians don’t want to do the job, but the asparagus picking around Dalmore east of Melbourne

    Fruit and vegetable harvesting are usually seasonal jobs. It isn’t realistic to expect an Australian family to move to a place with little infrastructure and few services so that they can be employed for two months of the year and unemployed for the other ten. Two solutions: 1. The federal government could invest in infrastructure, housing, services, and job creation in those towns so that more people can settle there and have a livelihood there (aka regional development). 2. Rely on backpackers to do those jobs (what we do now).
    457 visas aren’t for for fruit-pickers, and fruit-picking jobs aren’t being avoided by Australians because Australians are “job snobs”. Tony Abbott believes that it is job snobbery, but Tony Abbott is foolish. The seasonal nature of fruit-picking, and the lack of services and infrastructure and regular job opportunities in agricultural towns, precludes Australians from moving to the place where the job exists and building a life in that place.

  24. Bemused

    A place I worked for did just that in their laboratories. The “visa people” were prepared to put up with what they soon realised was crap pay and conditions because they were using it as a pathway to migration. From what I have seen the quality of the place has gone way down as has morale for locals and visa holders. The old Soviet days joke “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work” .

    It was a shame because their first foray into bringing people in worked exactly as it should. They had skills re LNG very few had in Australia at the time and working with them meant I and half a dozen others had the skills passed on to us.

  25. barney in go dau @ #620 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    lizzie @ #599 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    Ending 457 visas & at same time underfunding education, skills & training risks skills shortage. Need to lift the skills side to avoid that

    Kouk nails my thoughts on 457s.
    Any jobs listed under 457 should have their education funding assessed to address the shortfall and once the shortage is addressed the job should be removed from this category.
    If you’re not going to address the education side then the shortfall should be addressed through skilled migration.
    Of course it’s not an either/or situation as you could use both together to reduce the shortfall.

    Australia is training many who later return under a 457!
    Our tertiary education system has been corrupted to become a foreign exchange earner and international students are almost guaranteed a pass. When they come back as 457s they are less skilled than locals whose jobs they are taking.
    I have seen it all.
    It will take a long time to unravel all of this.

  26. poroti @ #624 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    Bemused
    A place I worked for did just that in their laboratories. The “visa people” were prepared to put up with what they soon realised was crap pay and conditions because they were using it as a pathway to migration. From what I have seen the quality of the place has gone way down as has morale for locals and visa holders. The old Soviet days joke “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work” .
    It was a shame because their first foray into bringing people in worked exactly as it should. They had skills re LNG very few had in Australia at the time and working with them meant I and half a dozen others had the skills passed on to us.

    There are undoubtedly special cases where that occurs, but in IT, the majority of the ‘skills’ are bog ordinary, possessed by many Australians including new graduates and others unemployed. It is an absolute disgrace and 4C did a good program on it.

  27. ‘457 visas are supposed to be for skilled jobs. What are the skilled jobs that “Aussies simply won’t do?”’

    Nicholas, next time you go to a restaurant that’s a little better than your local Maccas, ask yourself who’s doing the cooking and what visa are they on?

    The answer may enlighten you, assuming that you have the capacity for self reflection.

  28. If you think that cooks or chefs aren’t skilled you’re going to the wrong restaurant, and if you think that Aussies can or want to work in Thai restaurant for example, try asking.

  29. Reading from the Lib Press Release?

    Grunta‏ @gruntat · 32m32 minutes ago

    #Auspol
    Well foik me #9News opens with “457’s scrapped as PM puts Australians first”
    That’s what called MSM at its worst.

  30. Tones on notice to tone it down.

    Rumblings in Warringah and Abbott risks preselection challenge with one ‘conservative powerbroker’ saying he has marginal control of the numbers in his seat, but that with the situation fluid, and the way he is ‘pissing off more people everyday’, said powerbroker would put his house (or one of them) on a challenge.

    /news/tony-abbott-risks-preselection-challenge-20170417-gvmlia

    Coorey in the Fin.

  33. adrian @ #628 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 6:38 pm

    If you think that cooks or chefs aren’t skilled you’re going to the wrong restaurant, and if you think that Aussies can or want to work in Thai restaurant for example, try asking.

    If we have a genuine shortage of, say, Thai Chefs, then employers should be able to sponsor them through normal migration.

  34. Adrian,

    I think your call re Turnbull improving in the polls may be a tad premature.

    Labor will be working hard on this as we post working through what limited detail is available as will the unions. This announcement is nothing more than a headline looking for a actual policy and will be shown to be nothing more than smoke in coming days.

    I really do believe Turnbull has handed labor a huge opportunity with this. I look forward with a great deal of interest to how labor responds.

    Cheers.

  37. ‘If we have a genuine shortage of, say, Thai Chefs, then employers should be able to sponsor them through normal migration.’

    You don’t have a frigggin clue Bemused. No wonder you’re bemused.

  38. In relation to the woman who was killed by a shark in Esperance yesterday:

    Andrew Hastie
    5 hrs ·
    I’m deeply saddened to learn the name of the young girl who was killed in the shark attack yesterday. We need to act to protect people in Western Australia. My guiding principle is that human life is infinitely more precious than marine life.

  39. ” My guiding principle is that human life is infinitely more precious than marine life.”

    Perhaps humans should keep out of the feeding grounds of marine life. Who’s supposed to be the sapiens species?

  40. Confessions

    My guiding principle is that human life is infinitely more precious than marine life.

    What shit for brains Hastie doesn’t understand, is that without marine life, there is no human life.

  41. Guytaur,
    Definitionally, “protectionism” is the policy of placing higher duties on imported goods than comparable domestically-produced goods, to “protect” domestic manufacturers from competition from importers.
    Leaving aside the feasibility of levying GST on online purchases from overseas, it’s not protectionism. Take the (eternal) economists’ example of “widgets” – items of abstract usage. Currently, domestically-produced widgets are subject to GST (10%) at point of sale. Internationally-produced widgets are also subject to GST, if they are physically brought into the retail shopfront and there sold. However, internationally-produced widgets are not subject to GST when purchased online by Australians.
    As matters stand, that amounts to a subsidy – GST exemption – for online retailers. Still with me? Good, because I’m going to say this in small, easy to understand words:
    Removing a subsidy IS NOT THE SAME as putting a tax on something.
    Write it a hundred times, if that’s what it takes for you to “get” it, but stop pretending that removing the de facto subsidy on online retail is the same as putting a tax on it!
    Geesh, you sound like a regular Liberal…

  42. adrian @ #637 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    ‘If we have a genuine shortage of, say, Thai Chefs, then employers should be able to sponsor them through normal migration.’
    You don’t have a frigggin clue Bemused. No wonder you’re bemused.

    I have friends who migrated to Australia under the regular migration program.
    They are incensed at others from their former country being able to get in via the ‘back door’ of 457s. They faced much more stringent requirements and if it was good enough for them, then it should be good enough for all comers.

  44. Given the internals going on within the liberal party atm it will be interesting to see if any embarrassing leaks emerge to pee on Turnbulls 457 parade.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  47. Regarding commentary on how to get rid of Donald Trump, we should all be familiar with the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution. In short, if enough powerful Republicans decide the President “is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office…” then it is Hasta Lavista Baby.

    So what does Donald need to do or not do to meet this low bar? There are a few options, but losing the confidence of his Republican bretheren is key.

    Amendment XXV

    Section 1.

    In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

    Section 2.

    Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

    Section 3.

    Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

    Section 4.

    Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

  48. adrian @ #646 Tuesday, April 18, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Mind you, when you’re a know-it-all expert on everything, I guess ignorance isn’t an option.

    I am usually either silent or ask questions where I have limited knowledge.
    I have learnt quite a lot from people like Socrates.
    I doubt I will ever experience that with you.

  49. Cook, Thai or otherwise, as an occupation hasn’t been available for ‘normal’ migration for a few years now, whatever your ‘friends’ may say, bemused one.

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