Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll finds less than no evidence for the Coalition bounce recorded by Newspoll.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:

• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.

• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.

Elsewhere:

• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.

• Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.

• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.

I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,927 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. Bali has lots of big planes and several airlines flying there.

    Um, Sydney has lots of big planes and several airlines flying there too, but it doesn’t mean that flying to Sydney from Perth (which I’d have to do in order to get to Lord Howe) is necessarily cheaper than flying from Perth to Bali.

    Air travel is ridiculously expensive in this country.

  3. ML

    I must admit I was somewhat gobsmacked by Pyne saying Trump was not “business as usual” and perhaps we needed to think about the relationship with the US.

    Pyne just trying to defend his seat by pushing defence industry in SA.

  5. I must admit I was somewhat gobsmacked by Pyne saying Trump was not “business as usual” and perhaps we needed to think about the relationship with the US.

    I suppose it’s the realisation that Trump isn’t just a ‘normal bad’ President like George W Bush but a very dangerous and incompetent crackpot. Even the L/NP had to rethink their usual stance of unconditional support for the policies and positions of the USA while the Republicans are in power.

  9. Ctar1
    Obviously. Ain’t going to help though.
    Anyway I’m orf for more dystopia. The Walking Dead as the current narrative for the US.

  10. poroti:

    I’d prefer not to go to Bali because all you see are brash Aussies, and even in the more remote places like Ubud. But seriously, Australia needs to get serious with its airfare charges so more Australians can holiday at home.

  12. confessions @ #1792 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    JR:
    Obviously not many people go there seeing as no PBer could answer my passport question.
    Plus the airfares are ridiculously expensive. For the cost of travelling to Lord Howe I could have a fortnight in Bali.

    I thought you were trying to have us on.
    No Confessions, you don’t need a passport to travel within Australia. You don’t even need a visa to get into Qld.

  14. Nah, bemused: he p*ssed off so many of his colleagues that he cancelled having a vote on the leadership because he didn’t want to be embarrassed by it.

    It takes a special kind of talent to achieve that.

  16. Nah, she rammed it home until the point showed out of his chest, then Julia bent the point over with a mallet. It still wasn’t enough to knock out the zombie.

  21. rex douglas @ #1818 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:49 pm

    bemused @ #1815 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1814 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    Nah, bemused: he p*ssed off so many of his colleagues that he cancelled having a vote on the leadership because he didn’t want to be embarrassed by it.
    It takes a special kind of talent to achieve that.

    He was ambushed. Pure and simple.

    You cannot re-write history.
    He was sacked due to incompetence.

    I understand you know a lot about incompetence. And stupidity.

  23. It still wasn’t enough to knock out the zombie.

    If you need an eg of how destructive Rudd was, consider the objective fact that since he’s left the Caucus the party has been well and truly united, with those divisions clearly dead. Even those idiots Fitzgibbon and Husic have toed the line and locked in behind the leadership, something neither did while Rudd was undermining Gillard.

  25. grimace @ #1753 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:06 pm

    – In a conversation with one of them on the topic he said wtte “how about you pay for your own stuff and I’ll pay for my own stuff”

    In other words, ‘ I’m alright Jack, you can get stuffed.’

    The US as a whole don’t seem to understand the concept of a social contract. That a decent society looks after those members of it who do not, or can not, look after themselves, for whatever reason.

    I pay taxes so that (I hope) the poor, the indigent, the sick, the old, the frail, can get some sort of relief from their misery. In other circumstances, I would be one of them.

    We have but a short time on this earth, it would be evil not to have society look after those who need help.

    Unless you are a RWNJ in the US.

  28. CTar1
    That would be just a quiet weekend in Chicago .
    “More than 40 shot in Chicago over the weekend … Chicago recorded 92 murders in August”
    .
    12 Killings in Chicago Over Christmas Weekend.
    .
    A violent Christmas in a violent year for Chicago: 11 killed, 50 wounded
    .
    Weekend marks deadliest of year with 17 fatally shot – Chicago Tribune

  29. don @ #1825 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    grimace @ #1753 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:06 pm

    – In a conversation with one of them on the topic he said wtte “how about you pay for your own stuff and I’ll pay for my own stuff”

    In other words, ‘ I’m alright Jack, you can get stuffed.’
    The US as a whole don’t seem to understand the concept of a social contract. That a decent society looks after those members of it who do not, or can not, look after themselves, for whatever reason.
    I pay taxes so that (I hope) the poor, the indigent, the sick, the old, the frail, can get some sort of relief from their misery. In other circumstances, I would be one of them.
    We have but a short time on this earth, it would be evil not to have society look after those who need help.
    Unless you are a RWNJ in the US.

    free market libertarians are a cancer on society

  31. confessions @ #1823 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    It still wasn’t enough to knock out the zombie.

    If you need an eg of how destructive Rudd was, consider the objective fact that since he’s left the Caucus the party has been well and truly united, with those divisions clearly dead. Even those idiots Fitzgibbon and Husic have toed the line and locked in behind the leadership, something neither did while Rudd was undermining Gillard.

    One could also observe that all those things occurred after Gillard’s departure.

  34. Just like Julia then?

    Gillard was not incompetent, evidenced by the fact that she as leader was responsible for seeing most of Labor’s policy platform transformed into legislation.

  39. Apparently there’s an Ipsos poll out showing more bad news for the Tories. Anyone got eyes they can share here?

  44. Rex the one sure thing in politics is that there are always some treasonous rats working to bring you down. If they go on to success then they become party icons ( at least until the new set of treasonous rats do their work). Some players get to to play both parts more then once. Fake outrage from audience members is of course part of the fun in these pantomimes. Sadly there are always one or two children who take it all to heart and leave feeling hurt.

  45. Rex:

    Unchanged:

    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 11m11 minutes ago
    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 33 (-3) ALP 34 (+4) GRN 16 (0) #auspol

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