The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:
• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.
• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.
Elsewhere:
• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.
• Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.
• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.
I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.
As much as I like 55-45 to Labor, IPSOS is useless. I’m not sure why they bother.
Cant believe people still on about RGR.Its nearly 7 years ago from when it first began FFS.
bk @ #1866 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:26 pm
An outlier or an out-and-out liar?
Savva claimed on Insiders before the election that the LNP had an extra special dirt file on Bill. Full of shit then, full of shit now.
I picked side and have stated it here – Gillard. My opinion, thousands/millions disagree. But that’s all in the past. Either is miles ahead of PM Abbott, Turnbull or whatever horror will replace him. But the future is what matters. Looking forward to PM Shorten.
Well that Ipsos made me feel a whole lot better! 🙂
Off to hand out HTVs tomorrow at the Pre Poll for our Gosford State By-election.
The Liberals have either given up or are on the bones of their arses because I haven’t seen one corflute for their candidate in my travels around the electorate but heaps for Labor’s candidate.
They’re obsessed. And irrelevant.
C@t:
Best wishes to you tomorrow!
Using the Zoomster Theory of Poll Percolation, I’m thinking that Malcolm’s full-throated support for the Sunday Penalty Rate cuts, as opposed to beating around the bush about them, is taking it’s toll now.
A rich man saying the poor just need to take their lumps is never a good look. 🙂
I am having a bit of fun.
I am having a bit of fun.
Cupid
never heard of the 100 years war?
There’s also his equally full-throated support of his changes to Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act.
You can’t carve out whole demographics and expect to go up in the polls by the action of appeasing your base.
confessions @ #1907 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 9:21 pm
Says she who is constantly raising it.
Yes C@t, keep up the good fight.
New thread.
Massola’s story in SMH/Age says 55:45 ALP:COAL, but the accompanying graph clearly shows 56:44 At first glance, the scale markings are a little confusing, but he clearly states November 2016 was 51:49. Using those numbers to interpret the y axis scale means that the current poll is definitely 56:44, unless, of course, they have simply plotted the points incorrectly.
‘Fess,
Best wishes to you tomorrow!
Thanks. 🙂
Best wishes to our candidate, Paralympian, Gold, Silver and Bronze medalist, Liesl Tesch too!
Though I imagine it may be a little easier for us because the Liberal Premier promised a $1 Billion tunnel to the other seat having a By-election, North Shore, but took away $100 Million from the seat of Gosford for our Level Crossing remediation, even after an old pensioner was killed by a train recently as he tried to cross it in his motorised wheelchair!
poroti @ #1785 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 6:40 pm
I wish I could agree with you here Poroti. The approach you are suggesting has been tried before and it doesn’t work because the science denier spews out a continuous stream of crap and the actual expert simply can’t keep up. The end result of this is the denier ends up looking credible, the actual expert looks like a fool and further damage is done to the cause.
A good example of this tactic being very effective is the ability of Andrew Bolt to claim that the stolen generation is a myth because nobody can even “name ten” of them. The truth behind the origin of this claim:
In June 2006 Bolt wrote a column arguing that the Left was frightened of engaging in argument with the Right. In response, I sent a letter to the Herald Sun pointing out the hypocrisy. Five years ago, I argued, Bolt had fled from a debate on the stolen generations. In a private email, Bolt now argued that the reason he would not debate me was that he had not been sent a copy of the Quarterly Essay. He apparently forgot that this contradicted the public reason he had offered in 2001 for pulling out of the debate at the last moment.
The day after my letter was published, I was invited onto 3AW in Melbourne. Bolt challenged me to name ten stolen children. This was, I must admit, a cunning move. Unless one is prepared for a challenge of this kind, lists of names of the victims of a policy do not trip off the tongue. I doubt I would have done better if I had been asked to name ten victims of the Stalin terror or the Armenian genocide, matters I have read a very great deal about. Bolt’s “name ten” myth was born.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/robert-manne/2011/10/24/1319413522/name-ten-journalism-andrew-bolt
bemused @ #1796 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 6:54 pm
FFS lets not start the RGR wars again. Neither of them are in Parliament anymore and the ALP rules have changed to make it improbable that it would happen again.
At least the energy debate is current.
That Newspoll had PHON up 2% after they had a shocking 2 weeks. It looked suspiciously like they went looking for a LNP friendly sample.
That Newspoll had PHON up 2% after they had a shocking 2 weeks. It looked suspiciously like they went looking for a LNP friendly sample.
rex douglas @ #1829 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:01 pm
The people I know casually/socially are pretty mainstream and as a group are geographically diverse generally representative of the US.
I work with a few Amercians and I talk with a whole heap more on a dad’s Facebook page I’ve been a part of for years and the subject of healthcare often comes up.
rex douglas @ #1829 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:01 pm
The people I know casually/socially are pretty mainstream and as a group are geographically diverse and generally representative of the US.
I work with a few Amercians and I talk with a whole heap more on a dad’s Facebook page I’ve been a part of for years and the subject of healthcare often comes up.
confessions @ #1810 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 7:31 pm
A few years ago I arrived in Perth international airport one night at the same time as a Jetstar plane from Dempasar. Fuck me I was embarrassed to be an Australian at that point and I’d hate to think that the Balinese view people like as representative of Australians.
‘Christ, I leave PB’s main threads for a year and Rudd-Gillard wars are *still* going.’
Surely you can see the causative link here!
puff, the magic dragon. @ #1870 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:31 pm
As I often said when I was there, immigration and everything else from the former colonies is just our revenge for Empire. 🙂