Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll finds less than no evidence for the Coalition bounce recorded by Newspoll.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:

• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.

• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.


• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.

Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.

• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.

I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,927 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. I see the Green’s Rex Douglas has succeeded in getting the RGR wars going again. Why don’t the ALP supporters accept that both Rudd and Gillard had both positives and negatives and move along like adults. Or would you rather like Rex to win?


  2. Actually, the percentage of the USA voting population who supported Trump was approximately 25%, not 50%. Clinton would have won the Electoral College narrowly if the turnout % had been as high as 2008. Unfortunately, too many Sanders supporters and other long-term Clinton haters didn’t vote. There was also significant voter suppression operating in some marginal states, despite the repeated decisions of judges to obviate the most egregious suppression schemes.

    Now there are clearly three Americas; the progressive West Coast/Northeast states in opposition to the Deep South/Wild West states with the fate of the country being decided by a dozen marginal Midwest/Southeast states. I have resided in all these regions except the Southeast (where my RWNJ brother resides) and the vast chasms among their socio-cultural attitudes are beyond the imagination of many Australians. Just one obvious example: my current voting residence is in California where inclusiveness is a prime objective, and all its absentee ballots are printed with a Spanish side and English side as has been required for decades.

  3. monica lynagh @ #1761 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:29 pm

    I don’t know if you saw my comment over the page in response to PhoenixRED about the hard core lot wanting to exclude maternity care from insurance, but I concluded that’s how you know they’re crazy.

    I did miss it, I’ve been in an out all afternoon and however much I’d like to spend my Sunday dedicated to politics, I can’t.

    I’ve heard the desire to exclude maternity from insurance first hand from ordinary people who are 100% sincere in their view. When you see it from their point of view, excluding maternity from insurance makes sense. There is a culture of extreme individualism in the US and they view getting pregnant as a choice that you make. Their view is that when you make that choice, part of their insurance premium is used to pay for your choice to get pregnant and have a baby, so they are suffering higher insurance premiums than would otherwise be the case because of your choice to get pregnant.

  4. It’s okay. Rudd went on to prove he was what he is. What he denied this country can never be reclaimed, but such is the legacy of his kind.

  5. Doyley:

    Cheers. 🙂 Strong result for Labor who is apparently taking primary votes off the coalition. Great news!

  6. Gramice,
    That is why insurance-based healthcare is wrong.
    Our Medicare is good, but the UK’s NHS is better.

  7. So with the penultimate Newspoll, Essential and now Ipsos at 55/45 it would suggest the last Newspoll must be an outlier.

  8. Julie Bishop in denial mode

    She also dismissed as “fake news” a report that Defence Minister Marise Payne could be sent to New York as Consul-General, and denied Attorney-General George Brandis was headed to the High Commissioner’s post in London.

    If i was betting man … actually I reckon Brandis is too damaged.

  9. She was loyal enough to get him out of the mess he made of his leadership. Did him a favour, in fact. He should have sent Julia choccies and flowers.
    Typical man, too bloody emotional for his own good.

  10. Turnbull still overwhelmingly preferred as PM over Shorten. 45/33.

    A meaningless beauty metric when it comes down to it.

  11. Gillard would still be PM had Rudd played the team game. The Abbott Govt’s destruction would not have happened.

  12. bemused

    You’re right; if Rudd was only listening to and talking to one member of caucus, no wonder he was able to be ambushed. He was obviously far more isolated and out of touch than I thought.

  13. zoomster @ #1879 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:36 pm

    You’re right; if Rudd was only listening to and talking to one member of caucus, no wonder he was able to be ambushed. He was obviously far more isolated and out of touch than I thought.

    The Whitlam / Barnard team is the exemplar of what a leader and deputy should be.

  14. So with the penultimate Newspoll, Essential and now Ipsos at 55/45 it would suggest the last Newspoll must be an outlier.


  15. The last newspoll was massaged. William will disagree but it is 3 points adrift of everyone else.
    What’s the point of owning all those newspapers, networks & the like if you can’t rig a little polling now & then?

  16. Ispos sample size is 1,400, so margin of error is 2.7%.

    The 16% for Greens doesn’t look realistic, but then 34% for Labor (up from 30) looks low.

  17. So illustrative how ridiculous the commentary was because Newspoll came out with a less shit than the last really really shit result for the government.

    This is an ex-government. But damn don’t the commentariat desperately want it not to be so. It is ‘led’ [sic] by a gutless fraud who would rather die on his knees than anything. But damn don’t the commentariat desperately want to pretend that they see signs of life.

    He’s bleedin demised you turnips. Replacing him with a slug named Trevor would be a massive improvement.

  18. Airlines:

    For as long as bemused is tolerated here there will always be the RGR wars. The moron cannot help himself.

  19. No worries, Puff.
    I found it interesting that in most Congressional districts within the Los,Angeles Metro region, Clinton actually polled higher percentages than either of Obama’s victory margins there. Furthermore, around 10 progressive statewide Proposition measures were passed and a couple of Volpine corporates-in-sheep’s clothing Propositions were defeated.

  20. Also LAP primary higher than LNP is significant.

    And consider than many just think Turnbull caved on 18C for the purposes of Party Unity. What are they going to want next…

    Will the new Malcolm continue to give up voter support for the sake of party unity, or will the new Malcolm keep the party together and remain leader and continue bleeding voters.

    Either way, the ALP will be able to campaign on the stability of the ALP under Bill Shorten.

  21. poroti @ #1773 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 6:01 pm


    I found most Americans were decent folks who would give you the shirt of their backs

    My American experience has been up and down the West Coast. I am permanently perplexed and confused at the disconnect between the wonderful people I met from so many different walks of life and the @#$%$#%$$#!!!!! governments the US elects.

    I agree on both counts here.

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