Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll finds less than no evidence for the Coalition bounce recorded by Newspoll.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:

• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.

• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.

Elsewhere:

• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.

Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.

• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.

I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,927 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Copied from last thread:

    [Antonbruckner11
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 9:03 pm
    Would I be right in saying that most of the polling for Essential would have been done before the snowjob (Tuesday to Thursday) and most of the polling for newspoll afterwards (Thursday to Sunday)?]

    Peter Lewis’ article in the Guardian today says the snowjob happened too late to be included in the Essential mix.

  2. poroti, sirgit:

    Thank you, and what an MPI by Burke.

    I’ve also caught up with Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:

    As for what exactly the change would do — in the unlikely event it ever makes it into law, given the opposition of NXT in the Senate — we had a taste from that vile Q Society dinner earlier this year where the murder of LGBTI people was seen as fit material for “jokes” and failed politician and failed broadcaster Ross Cameron made a goose of himself (again). Changing 18C is unrelated to the practical world of free speech in Australia. The big threats to free speech in this country are defamation laws, the enthusiasm of the legal industry for suppression orders and other forms of censorship that infantilise the community, the lack of media diversity, the dearth of independent, well-resourced civil society bodies that act to protect freedoms, and the lack of a rights-based legal framework that would enable them to do so.

    Advocates of the repeal of 18C — Derryn Hinch excepted — have never shown any interest in addressing these real threats to free speech. Indeed, advocates like News Corp and the Institute of Public Affairs actually want to make them worse through media ownership deregulation, opposition to any form of a bill of rights and even expanding the powers of corporations to litigate against critics.

    That’s because, as powerful participants in public debate — media companies, politicians (especially senators, who don’t have the odious task of dealing with actual constituents like their House of Reps colleagues), corporate-funded thinktanks — they already have all the free speech they need. What motivates them, instead, is the idea that there is any impediment to using their power against those they wish to attack: people who criticise them, and particularly people who are different to them and who have the gall to challenge them. There’s a reason why nearly all the advocates of changes to 18C are powerful white conservatives, and why their preferred targets are Indigenous Australians, and LGBTI Australians, and Muslims.

    Doesn’t that just sum it all up perfectly!

  3. WB
    A gold koala stamp for this LOL 🙂

    77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button

  4. Gold koala stamps are very rare and valuable.
    A bar to this award has never, so far, been awarded.
    Goodnight all. ♡♡

  5. citizen @ #903 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    Up until a few years ago, I travelled several times on Rex Saab aircraft of the type that lost the propeller. I’ve also used Qantas propeller aircraft and have occasionally been seated right beside the spinning prop on both airlines.
    Sometimes I wondered what would happen if a piece of the spinning blade broke off and pierced the fuselage and embedded itself in a passenger. Then I thought “this can never happen”.
    It seems that the prop headed away from the aircraft without impacting the fuselage, wings or tail. If the prop had headed in another direction there may have been material for an episode of ‘Air Crash Investigation’.

    If the prop is intact and spinning it would only go one direction forward.

    Remember the prop is pulling the plane along behind it and if it is no longer attached it would travel forward faster as it’s only pulling itself.

    If the prop broke up that would be a different matter.

  6. 55-45. That’s more like it. Maybe Newspoll was a rogue.

    Labor hasn’t actually achieved anything like that number since WW2.

  7. I bet Malcolm Turnbull is itching to copy some of Trump’s Anti Muslim moves. He may as well, considering he jumped the shark well and truly today with his capitulation to the Culture Warriors in the Coalition over 18C.

  8. Labor hasn’t actually achieved anything like that number since WW2.

    After Labor regained govt in 2007 there were numerous poll results with ALP polling 56% and beyond 2PP throughout 2008 and 2009.

  9. The Federal Libs look like suffering a lot from the wacky deal with PHON in WA. PHON has been supporting just about all major LNP legislation in the Senate. Now that they have discovered that a cosy deal with Libs might be a bit toxic with their supporters it’s a pretty fair bet that we will see PHON grandstanding and voting against more LNP proposals in the Senate. For example on 18C, what is the likelihood of PHON voting it down the LNP proposal on the basis that it is too weak?

  10. Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust 38m38 minutes ago
    More
    #BREAKING @TurnbullMalcolm is set to split the omnibus bill into a savings bill and childcare bill. #pmlive #auspol

    A Savings Bill and a Childcare Bill. Different combinations of Senators will end up getting BOTH packages through.

  11. Now that they have discovered that a cosy deal with Libs might be a bit toxic with their supporters it’s a pretty fair bet that we will see PHON grandstanding and voting against more LNP proposals in the Senate.

    Erm, no. See my last post. Obviously PHON have decided to support the government’s Savings Bill. Which includes unfair Welfare changes.

  12. C@

    ‘A Savings Bill and a Childcare Bill. Different combinations of Senators will end up getting BOTH packages through.’

    I put my faith in Malcolm. If anyone can balls up a sure thing, he can.

  13. You’ve got to hand it to Mal the Magnificent, the Jews and Muslims have been fighting 1,000+ years and today Mal has united them.

  14. William – reading the Esential polling explanation, it looks like they no longer use the 2 week rolling average method but have moved to a weekly sample only. Can you confirm if this is the case.

  15. Remember the prop is pulling the plane along behind it and if it is no longer attached it would travel forward faster as it’s only pulling itself.

    Only very briefly. Once it’s no longer attached it won’t be getting any more power from the engine and will rapidly lose both rotational speed and forward momentum due to air resistance. Especially since it’ll tend to tumble and be unable to maintain an aerodynamic profile once on its own.

    It won’t take long before the prop ends up behind the plane. A collision is still very unlikely though.

  16. Pauline is basically a rogue (or maybe rouge) Liberal, but other One Nation candidates aren’t necessarily. And many One Nation voters would probably like 1950s style Labor policies, including White Australia.

  17. C@t – didn’t someone post that PHON weren’t happy with the omnibus bill because they thought more money should come from multinationals, not the people currently targetted. So they may well vote against “savings” bill.

    Splitting does ensure that the Childcare Bill will be past – perhaps with only PHON opposing – apparently they oppose the extension from 18-20 weeks.

  18. ‘For example on 18C, what is the likelihood of PHON voting it down the LNP proposal on the basis that it is too weak’.
    This is a possibility, PHON did vote against the maternity allowances because they were too soft (unmarried women getting pregnant just to get the allowance).

  19. Zoomster,
    As Peta Credlin rightly observed, if Turnbull can basically get the Omnibus Bill through parliament, even if he has to do it 2 ways, then that will be a big achievement.

    ALL the draconian stuff!

  20. Wamkefield,
    I imagine PHON are supporting the ‘Savings’ but not the Childcare because it’s too lenient, according to them, as you say. However, the draconian ‘Savings’ measures, no problem!

  21. [A Savings Bill and a Childcare Bill. Different combinations of Senators will end up getting BOTH packages through.]

    Would this be right? It seems a majority of senators would vote for increasing childcare subsidies but most senators seem opposed to cutting welfare payments.

  22. You’ve got to hand it to Mal the Magnificent, the Jews and Muslims have been fighting 1,000+ years and today Mal has united them.

    LOL!

  23. William, spending time on yourself for study and teaching is so self centred of you!! Aren’t we more important? 😉

    Seriously, you are doing a great job. Don’t sweat too much about Bludger track – we are fully capable of arguing amongst ourselves with or without Bludger track! (you may have noticed) 🙂

    Tom.

  24. Citizen,
    Would this be right? It seems a majority of senators would vote for increasing childcare subsidies but most senators seem opposed to cutting welfare payments.

    Not PHON.

    So a majority is crafted with Liberals + Nationals + Liberal Democrat + PHON + Hinch?

  25. However, the draconian ‘Savings’ measures, no problem!

    That wouldn’t matter if X is opposed.

    Lab/G/+3 is a block. Trumble needs both X and PHON on board before he can even think about passing anything.

    More likely that he’s decided to let the Senate pass the childcare stuff and the rest will stay amongst the walking dead for the duration.

  26. barney in saigon @ #6 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    citizen @ #903 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    Up until a few years ago, I travelled several times on Rex Saab aircraft of the type that lost the propeller. I’ve also used Qantas propeller aircraft and have occasionally been seated right beside the spinning prop on both airlines.
    Sometimes I wondered what would happen if a piece of the spinning blade broke off and pierced the fuselage and embedded itself in a passenger. Then I thought “this can never happen”.
    It seems that the prop headed away from the aircraft without impacting the fuselage, wings or tail. If the prop had headed in another direction there may have been material for an episode of ‘Air Crash Investigation’.

    If the prop is intact and spinning it would only go one direction forward.
    Remember the prop is pulling the plane along behind it and if it is no longer attached it would travel forward faster as it’s only pulling itself.
    If the prop broke up that would be a different matter.

    But that is not what happened. The co-pilot saw it fly back over the wing.

  27. Re Hanson and the omnibus savings bill… Pauline is getting positively bolshie!

    In a statement on Tuesday Hanson linked the proposed welfare cuts in the omnibus bill to the issue of multi-national tax avoidance, saying the government needs to realise companies must “pay their way … before those with the least are asked to tighten their belts”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/21/one-nation-set-to-block-the-governments-omnibus-welfare-bill

  28. Thats the best thing Hanson has said for weeks.There is no justification for the poor being targeted about welfare until the corporates pay their proper share.

  29. The L/NP have (unfortunately) been saved from themselves by their inability to get the childcare and zombie measures through the Senate.

    Their polling is disastrous now, it would be considerably worse once the childcare and zombie savings passed Parliament.

  30. @ Bemused I think his point was that the propeller would briefly go faster than the plane before shooting off in some random direction. In this case it has accelerated forwards before shooting upwards, slowing down and going over the wing as it lost speed relative to the plane.

  31. grimace @ #36 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    @ Bemused I think his point was that the propeller would briefly go faster than the plane before shooting off in some random direction. In this case it has accelerated forwards before shooting upwards, slowing down and going over the wing as it lost speed relative to the plane.

    I am only going by what the co-pilot was reported as saying.
    It is interesting that it travelled as far as it did from the point where it detached. Approx 20km by my reckoning.

  32. In the Senate, we have the following on the Dark Side:

    – Liberal / National / LNP / CLP: 29
    – LDP, Bernardi: 2
    – One Nation: 4

    So that’s 35. They need to get to 38. The vacant Don Day seat would have been another reasonably sure vote, but at the moment they need three more votes among X, Hinch, Lambie. X would get them there.

  33. Evening all. With the added detail on responses to issues this poll feels closer to reality than the Newspoll was. I do not think Newspoll was a rogue. Turnbull deliberately timed his Snow Job hydro announcement to get a poll sugar hit and he got one. Once people realised it was just an idea with no details and implementation would take 4 to 7 years, with gas shortages in the mean time, the polls soured.

    I do not actually have any technical criticism of either the Weatherall or Turnbull power plans. Both make sense, though the Turnbull one is too late. The problem has been the three years of federal policy inertia that have gotten us in this mess.

    Obviously after killing the carbon tax the COALition assumed more coal plants would be built. They forgot that privatised energy suppliers will not put billions of private cash into an uneconomic long term investment. Even if they were building one, coal power plants take 5 to 7 years to design, build and commission. So if Tony Abbott had understood the consequences of what he did three years ago and subsidized new coal power plants immediately, there would still be power shortages over the next 2 to 4 years before they came on line. This is really such a large policy failure that there must be reports and briefings floating around that cabinet had been given over this time. It would be interesting to see when they landed on various ministers’ desks, and who decided not to do anything.

  34. steve777 @ #38 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    In the Senate, we have the following on the Dark Side:
    – Liberal / National / LNP / CLP: 29
    – LDP, Bernardi: 2
    – One Nation: 4
    So that’s 35. They need to get to 38. The vacant Don Day seat would have been another reasonably sure vote, but at the moment they need three more votes among X, Hinch, Lambie. X would get them there.

    Or the Greens. No way of knowing what they will do.

  35. Before the WA election Hanson was all for the savings measures, looks like she is better than the Libs at judging which way the wind is blowing….then again the Libs know that wind drives those evil turbines and I’m sure Turnbull has ‘masses of evidence’ that wind hurts poor adorable kittens

  36. Wakefield
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 10:18 pm
    William – reading the Esential polling explanation, it looks like they no longer use the 2 week rolling average method but have moved to a weekly sample only. Can you confirm if this is the case.

    Hi Wakefield,

    The footnote in the “Federal voting intention” of the Essential Report says that it is a 2 week average. The other questions are for a single week.

  37. This looks like a completely humiliating backdown by the government. They will pass the childcare measures comfortably by separating them from the savings. I strongly suspect this means they have given up on the savings measures and that they will be defeated.

  38. Citizen
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 9:26 pm
    Copied from last thread:

    [Antonbruckner11
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 9:03 pm
    Would I be right in saying that most of the polling for Essential would have been done before the snowjob (Tuesday to Thursday) and most of the polling for newspoll afterwards (Thursday to Sunday)?]

    Peter Lewis’ article in the Guardian today says the snowjob happened too late to be included in the Essential mix.

    Again (see link in William’s post at the top of this thread) the Essential PDF says that the polls was taken 17th to 20th (Friday to Monday). Pretty much the same time as Newspoll.

    Peter Lewis may mean that there hasn’t been time for it to “sink in” or he maybe confused by the 2 week average? If it’s the later, the fact that the poll has jumped 2 points away from the government suggests the new sample was even worse than 55-45.

  39. steve777 @ #46 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 11:32 pm

    Regarding the Rex flight that lost the propeller, I think that it might have been closer to Sydney Airport than Camden. This report says 19km:
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/regional-express-lauds-exceptional-skills-of-captain-after-plane-loses-propeller-20170320-gv1vcz.html
    Others say ‘about 20km’ or ‘about 10 nautical miles’. That would be fairly close to where the propeller was found, maybe a few km up the flight path.

    19 or 20 km would put it somewhat further out than Revesby, but certainly not as far as Camden.
    There is a flight path goes over the southern end of Revesby close to the Georges River and over the National Park where the propeller was found. It may have followed that flight path descending behind and under the plane.

  40. Myself
    the fact that the poll has jumped 2 points away from the government suggests the new sample was even worse than 55-45.

    If you are like me that should read “even better”. : )

    Anyway the point is that Newspoll and the new Essential sample (which was probably better for the ALP than 55-45) are for the same period.

    Does anybody really think the government can get to 48% on anything other than a kind sample?

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