The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:
• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.
• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.
Elsewhere:
• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.
• Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.
• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.
I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.
rex douglas @ #1740 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:44 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-bank-39m-in-donations-including-600000-from-graeme-wood-20170131-gu2qzm.html
player one @ #1751 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:59 pm
You’ll have to explain to what is ‘suspect’ about those donations ?
monica lynagh @ #1721 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:25 pm
I have an American working for me, and I know a number of them casually.
They have a culture of extreme individualism, and that transcends facts when it comes to healthcare. I’ve had several discussions about healthcare and universal healthcare with them:
– As another poster has already pointed out they believe they already have the best healthcare system in the world;
– Everything they think they know about universal healthcare has been told to them my organisations with a vested interest in them not having it. For example, they honestly believe the government dictates what healthcare you can and cannot receive, probably because this is how it works with many of their private healthcare policies as in many cases they have to get pre-approval before incurring expenses;
– They have an irrational fear of “big government”;
– They believe government is synonymous with incompetence, and;
– In a conversation with one of them on the topic he said wtte “how about you pay for your own stuff and I’ll pay for my own stuff”
rex douglas @ #1752 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:02 pm
http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/greens_caught_out_on_gambling_donations
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/david-walsh-takes-punt-on-150m-casino-development-as-part-of-major-mona-expansion-20151214-glmx1t.html
grimace
Yes, that makes a lot of sense to me, particularly the bit about their managed care as I know about the pre-approval for treatment from my contacts in mental health in the States.
Also, the extreme individualism.
rex douglas @ #1752 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:02 pm
All large donations to politicians and/or political parties are suspicious IMHO. Its the nature of all not for profit organisations that they are beholden to their large donors.
monica lynagh @ #1755 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:16 pm
Some of the things they honestly believe about universal healthcare are so ridiculous that I can’t believe they actually believe them.
There have been a number of times I’ve been tempted to say in response to their questions wtte “that’s so stupid and implausible that I can’t believe that you honestly believe it”, nonetheless I show patience and restraint because they honestly do believe the most ridiculous things about how universal healthcare works, and they are genuinely curious.
Some of the comments that were thrown around when Obama was getting universal health care legislated were outrageous. Death panels FFS, as if universal health care was going to result in your death, not help you get treatment when needed, thereby saving your life.
player one @ #1754 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:09 pm
Again, what is suspect about the greens okaying a high rollers only casino extension proposal which doesn’t harm the local community ?
Monica Lynagh Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:58 pm
PhoenixRED
Thanks.
I believe I read in an earlier report you linked that one of the things the hard core lot wanted was to exclude maternity care. That’s how you know they’re crazy.
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The same ones probability sit glued to Faux News all day ……. and watch/listen to nutters like Sean Hannity like he is a God delivering sermons ….to them …… and to Donald, who tweets Fox/Hannity thoughts as his next new policy 5 minutes later – TOTAL RWNJ’s !!!! ( equate similarly to RWNJ’s here to The Australian, Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones etc etc )
As Trump said , he could shoot someone in cold blood in front of them and they would still support him 100 % ( as Barnaby would say Bat Shit Crazy )
grimace
I don’t know if you saw my comment over the page in response to PhoenixRED about the hard core lot wanting to exclude maternity care from insurance, but I concluded that’s how you know they’re crazy.
rex douglas @ #1759 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:26 pm
Are your comprehension skills that limited?
PhoenixRED
Well, we know whole nations can be led up the garden path, particularly when ill informed or lied to often enough. Seeing reports of some of the beliefs held there or the sheer ignorance of a significant proportion of the population gives me little confidence the US can survive in its present form.
Did you see the report in the Guardian Australia about the fight in California between pro and anti Trump bods?
Sorry, can’t do links.
player one @ #1762 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:34 pm
What is suspect, P1 ?
Shorten did what he had to do.
He took a party that was divided and defeated, saw off the two rivals, got rid of the curse that was Abbott, and very nearly got rid of Turnbull (certainly emasculated him andmuch of his noxious party and platform), keeping Labor ahead in the polls for most of the last three years.
The Australian public couldn’t “forgive” Labor after only one term in opposition. It’s been done before, yes, but only in Queensland, and there are a heap of problems there as a result. They had a hankering after the Renaissance Man Turnbull, swallowing the trope that he needed clear air, a fresh party-aligned Senate, and an election he had won in his own right to shut-up the doubters once and for all.
So Turnbull tried one of those tricky moves he’s supposedly famous for – brought forward the Budget, seduced the Greens into believing they were a just like a “proper party” by voting on things and stuff with the government, threw his weight around a bit with the states – and then went to the election with just one policy: the discredited pot of fool’s gold called “trickle-down economics”. They were doing so badly during the campaign they couldn’t pay their new federal director, so Turnbull had to stump up with nearly $2 million to fund Tony Nutt’s salary, resulting in Nutt’s prompt disappearence from view.
The government is in a mess, as is the country, nothing’s happening except Claude Rains-style manufactured “shock” (Malcolm is “Shocked! Shocked to find there’s a gas crisis in this country!”) Their polling numbers are and have been for some time in the toilet. Labor is united, policy rich and confident. It’sLabor that has its mojo back, not Turnbull.
To have re-elected Labor would have entailed the voting punters admitting they were swindled in 2013, and the CPG refusing to admit they had advised those punters. A 1-term Labor return couldn’t happen and have any other truly beneficial results than schadenfreude.
Shorten has done the best that almost anyone else could have done. He did it by sitting back and waiting, and learning. Despite what the Press Gallery would have us believe (and what Turnbull and too many other politicians and commentators seem to believe) winning is not everything. Politics is not a horse race or a game of footy. It’snot an end in itselfforany but the most cynical. A race or a game is over after the final whistle or the winning post is reached. In politics, winning an election (especially one that that causes a change of government) is just the first step on a long a tortuous journey..
The public and the commentators are going to have to learn their lessons too. As are the voters. Bill Shorten plays a long game and doesn’t waste energy flapping his arms about, waving to the fans or insulting his enemies. He is measured andclam,and has the gift of being aware of his weaknesses – and his strengths.
When he becomes Prime Minister, he will be all the more appreciated as a sober, sensible choice, not a rock star, a thug, or a phoney spiv with a thousand faces… whateverthe fucking polls are saying today. They don’t amount to a hill of beans in the long run.
I know Lord Howe Island is considered part of NSW, but does anyone know if you need a passport to travel there?
Monica Lynagh
Copy and paste on the links and re Shorten my former boss John Faulkner was the only other person in the room re Rudd and Shorten on that night of the coup and let me tell you John never gives anyone anything that is to be kept secret.
BB
Yeah but apart from that what have the
RomansShorten done for us ?Well said Bushfire! I can’t believe people can’t respect what he’s done to unite Labor, so divided and bitter after the R-G-R wars, and so quickly too. Never mind how he’s seen off Abbott and contributed to the nobbling of Turnbull.
Monica Lynagh Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:37 pm
PhoenixRED
Well, we know whole nations can be led up the garden path, particularly when ill informed or lied to often enough. Seeing reports of some of the beliefs held there or the sheer ignorance of a significant proportion of the population gives me little confidence the US can survive in its present form.
Did you see the report in the Guardian Australia about the fight in California between pro and anti Trump bods?
Sorry, can’t do links.
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Monica – I lived in the US for a reasonable spell and I have lots of service friends ……. I found most Americans were decent folks who would give you the shirt of their backs – and they especially liked and held Australians in high ideals – but America is like 2 diverse extreme worlds – you can go to the Billion $$$$$ Disneyland and on the way pass people sleeping in gutters with just a sheet of cardboard to their name …… the gap between rich and smooth is a never accessible chasm ….
There are many folks STILL fighting the American Civil War of the 1860’s and call each other Rebs and Yankees ……. and many lost Native American souls who had their lands stolen from them …….
Like I have said before a quote from Oscar Wilde – America, the only country to go from Barbarism to Decadence without experiencing Civilisation inbetween …
rex douglas @ #1764 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:42 pm
Your comprehension skills, apparently.
Let’s be realistic and acknowledge that Abbott got rid of Abbott and Turnbull is getting rid of Turnbull.
PhoenixRED
My American experience has been up and down the West Coast. I am permanently perplexed and confused at the disconnect between the wonderful people I met from so many different walks of life and the @#$%$#%$$#!!!!! governments the US elects.
I suspect to solve that there needs , instead of mexico, a wall built all along the Rockies and the Appalachians. 🙂
confessions @ #1769 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:51 pm
Rudds rules have shackled the caucus.
Funny, Ruddists think Rudd’s rules have robbed the membership 😉
f*** ……………..between rich and poor
Shorten could lead Labor to 3 straight election victories, and Rex will still be saying,
“If they had a decent leader, they would have won four!”
Okay, with flights Sydney to Lord Howe Isl return coming in at over $1000 I won’t be going there anyways. Why is it so bloody expensive to fly within Australia and so cheap to fly to Asia? Just ridiculous.
One if the issues that I picked up with the healthcare debate in the US, is that they cannot distinguish between the issue of managing health care costs and payment and administering the care itself. It is if they cannot understand any other model rather than fee for service. And that a doctor who charges $2000 for a procedure must be twice as good as one who charges $1000.
Incidentally their model where insurance premiums is paid as part of an employment package is from WWII, the federal government in an effort to contain costs had instuited controls on wages, to prevent the various manufacturers from bidding up wages. To attract workers in the booming economy they promised health insurance, and the additional benefit was kept after the war.
MTBW
In my view, that Shorten and many others were involved in deposing Rudd is not surprising to me, given what emerged publicly after the event and what I’ve been told privately.
However, the Labor team are currently united pretty much under Shorten and if the polls continue to back a Labor win at the next election, Shorten will be the next PM.
Again, speaking personally, I so badly want Turnbull and the Coalition’s RWNJs gone, for the sake of the country, I’ll cut Shorten some slack.
Many years ago, I worked for a Labor council so I have few illusions about how the fighting can get pretty willing.
Wasn’t there a story about some Fed Labor pollie sitting beside a new chum and when the new chum said with glee he was excited to be finally fronting the enemy, the older chap said, no, your enemies are behind you, that’s just the opposition.
More, Shorten made me laugh when after Turnbull had got stuck into Shorten in parliament, Shorten said when questioned if he was feeling a bit bruised, that he was feeling a bit sorry for Turnbull as he seemed to be under pressure from and reeled off a list of Turnbull’s woes.
Thanks Monica for following up we are all different and we will see what we will see.
John Reidy:
I’d always wondered how it came about that health insurance was an employment benefit in the US. Thanks for that.
Niki Savva (Insiders) apparently said there was dirt the Libs could use on Shorten. Presumably not the stuff already tried in the CC.
I would hate to see Labor stooping as low, but I hope they’ve collected a nice little file on Truffles.
Lizzie
Boo to Dr Karl. There is no need to find common ground. It would not be pointless as the point would be to illuminate the stupidity of Robert’s position. If Dr Karl does not go ahead with it then rest assured the ‘Climate Nutter community’ will present Dr Karl not having it as proof climate change is bull dust.
PhoenixRED
I agree with your view about the diverse worlds within the US.
The first time I went, landed in Miami and travelled up to Washington by car. Car was a super fast thing, capable of mach 4 or something, out onto the main 6 lane interstate, into a 3 hour traffic jam, 2 hearses had collided.
It was interesting talking to people from the Deep South along the seaboard and in Washington.
Next time, not long after 9/11, was to Indiana, to the town where the Uni is based, where there was/are extremely intelligent, talented and wonderful people and a church, usually fundamentalist, on just about every corner.
Last year, on cruise in the Med met some very interesting folk from all over the States, and then New York. Whoa! Loved it.
Australia is already quite diverse in some areas, such as Melbourne, but more monocultural elsewhere.
They don’t call FNQ the Deep North for nothing.
Whatever “suspect deals” Labor and the Greens may or may not have with big business, they are sure to be dwarfed by those involving the Liberals.
I think any debate with Malcolm Roberts on the subject of climate change (or pretty much anything else) would be like playing chess with a pidgeon.
Guess who member is that represents Lord Howe Island? Our Tanya Plibersek, the island is part of the electorate of Sydney. I wonder if she has an office there?
How disappointing. It’s been shown in the past that the best way to expose these cranks is to simply debate them in a public forum. Look at how Lord whatshisname from the UK, hosted by Alan Jones crashed and burned in his debate with that bald Aus climate scientist whose name escapes me.
“Copy and paste on the links and re Shorten my former boss John Faulkner was the only other person in the room re Rudd and Shorten on that night of the coup and let me tell you John never gives anyone anything that is to be kept secret.’
Um, Shorten wasn’t in the room that night, either.
JR:
Obviously not many people go there seeing as no PBer could answer my passport question.
Plus the airfares are ridiculously expensive. For the cost of travelling to Lord Howe I could have a fortnight in Bali.
Exactly. He cedes the debate to Roberts and his nutter followers who will simply claim precisely what you’ve said.
I presume that Lord Howe Island has only small planes and only one or two airlines flying there. Bali has lots of big planes and several airlines flying there.
confessions
Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 5:49 pm
I know Lord Howe Island is considered part of NSW, but does anyone know if you need a passport to travel there?
**********************************************************************
No, you do not.
lizzie @ #1730 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:36 pm
Obviously more than one person was involved.
I know Lord Howe Island is considered part of NSW, but does anyone know if you need a passport to travel there?
Lord Howe island is part of NSW just like Rottnest Island is part of WA. It’s just a bit further away.
No passport required.
MTBW
You’re welcome. Just goes to show we can have different perspectives without hurling insults at one another. After all, we don’t know how it’s going to play out in Australia and Trump is such a wild card.
I must admit I was somewhat gobsmacked by Pyne saying Trump was not “business as usual” and perhaps we needed to think about the relationship with the US.
Thanks everyone for replies re Lord Howe.