The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:
• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.
• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.
Elsewhere:
• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.
• Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.
• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.
I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.
Poroti @ 3:29
That was very funny.
MTBW
Would you care to say why you and your Labor voting friends loathe Shorten?
I’m interested because my long time, lefty hairdresser and buddy cannot warm to Shorten but is unable to identify why.
Rex Douglas Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 3:43 pm
The level of social unrest when Trump is inevitably taken down will be very troubling.
The cult-like mindset of his followers is scary.
********************************************
Agree with you Rex – as much as Trump is scary – the fact that around 50% of the voting population voted for him – and continues to support him even beyond his latest debacle is even scarier :
Angry Trump voters blame everyone but the president for US healthcare fail
The day after the flaming out of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first major legislative initiative, his supporters across America were lashing out – at conservatives, at Democrats, at leaders of his Republican Party in Congress.
Only Trump himself was spared their wrath.
Many voters who elected him appeared largely willing to give him a pass on the collapse of his campaign promise to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system, stressing his short time in office.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/angry-trump-voters-blame-everyone-but-the-president-for-us-healthcare-fail/
cupidstunt @ #1669 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 2:02 pm
Once again Malcolm unable to identify or unwilling to acknowledge his true enemy the RWNJs in his party.
It doesn’t matter what he does to Shorten while he maintains an unfair ideologically driven RW agenda.
While this is the case he will continue to bleed to a slow death from the regular buggerings he receives from the RWNJs.
Monica Lynagh
I initially had a set against him just because he was from the #*&#$@#$! AWU. Nothing personal as he was not involved but the AWU lot shafted us ( BLF) and took way lower conditions to get site coverage. Ya can tell from the BLF part it was a long time ago in a galaxy far away 🙂
Anyways after seeing him play Abbott like a trout and having Labor in its current position and state what’s not to love ? 🙂
Rex you mean like the cult-like mindset of people who hate Shorten, but when pressed csn give a remotely valid reason?
No leader will ever be perfect.The party and what it stands for should supercede any leader whether they are popular or not.
csn=can’y
cud chewer @ #1705 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:01 pm
He is clearly seen as having a very questionable character given his dealings within the AWU (kickbacks) and ALP (factional dealings re leadership, preselections, etc).
can’t
Its like saying “I dont mind being shafted as long as Turnbull does it but not Shorten.”
Like I said. No valid cause
Cud Chewer
Get no satisfaction ?
cupidstunt @ #1669 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 2:02 pm
In what world is Turnbull not already on his knees courtesy of the RWNJ’s in is party?
Poroti
That explains a lot.
Personally, I think Shorten is ambitious and willing to wheel and deal quite enthusiastically. However, he does apply himself and get results, e.g., the NDIS.
I’m not so hung up on the leader of any party, except when they are klutzes like Abbott or a barrister for hire such as Turnbull, after all we elect our local member in the end and I’m quite happy with mine.
Also, the polls indicate to me that it is the policies that matter, at least in Oz.
So… Paul Ryan for Potus. Out with the old and evil, in with the evil.
Rex Douglas @ 4:13
So you think the Royal Commission finding nothing on Shorten is deficient because?
Name me anyone in any party who doesn’t do factional deals.
monica lynagh @ #1714 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:15 pm
Yes, policies are the priority, but how secure is a policy with an ambitious and untrustworthy leader.
socrates @ #1715 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:19 pm
Pence is the GoP establishments man.
Monica Lynagh
I have never liked him since his push to get rid of Rudd.
Call me quaint and call me queer but it was not up to him to get rid or anyone in the Caucus.
I happen to think that politicians should only be thrown out for major reasons like a severe illness or a massive problem in the Caucus none of that was the case with Rudd
I heard Shorten about a month or so ago saying “I have waited thirty years for this”.
Not my cup of tea!
You have to laugh when a leader of a party is criticized for being ambitious
PhoenixRED
If you still happen to be about, do you have a handle on why Americans are so wedded to a very expensive health system with such poor outcomes for those who can least afford it?
Apart from shrieking “socialism” when I have attempted to explain ours to some, I can’t get a grip on it.
monica lynagh @ #1716 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:20 pm
So you reject the AWU got kickbacks from businesses it dealt with ?
VP
🙂
For ‘wheel and deal’ read negotiate. Obviously not a characteristic of Truffles.
monica lynagh @ #1721 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:25 pm
I think a large part of it is to do with their unshakable belief that they already have the best health system in the world (!), so any change must necessarily be bad.
Many Americans were easy pickings for Trump and his ‘alternative facts’ because they already lived in a world divorced from reality – especially when it comes to healthcare.
MTBW
Thanks for your reply.
My understanding is that there were more than just Shorten involved in the push to get rid of Rudd. Plotting goes on in political parties all the time as far as I can make out, sometimes more intensely than others.
Shorten and Labor appear stable and united and nothing I hear leads me to think he’s got some policy he wants to push through or dismantle.
Shorten did deal where all were winners. That is what politics should be about. If you try for perfection you get nothing. Look at the greens.
Hands up those who think the Kimberley Kitching captains pick was a good call ?
rex douglas @ #1722 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:25 pm
Do you accept that Labor, Liberals, Nationals and the Greens have all had suspect relationships with business?
Rex
Do you think Pence is in the clear?
Monica Lynagh
Amusing that different people choose different villains to blame for the Rudd overthrow. 😉
Rex Douglas
Not me!
frednk @ #1726 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:33 pm
Except Shorten was employed by his workers to work for them, not the businesses.
Logically ask yourself why would a business give a disguised kickback ?
Lizzie
It was all there to see on television.
I blame Rudd for the Rudd overthrow.
Shorten is seen as a career politician. Someone that’s good with back room deals and factional power plays. This is not attractive to many out in community.
I have no problem with this though. Party leader needs to know the game, be ambitious and calculated. He has legislative capability and his negotiation skills are important both for party stability and getting outcomes. We forget what a low point it was in 2013 and how we bounced back up. Shorten has pre much defeated legislative agenda of the government. He won the arguments on negative gearing, capital gains, banks royal commission, ETS and same sex marriage.
socrates @ #1729 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:35 pm
I don’t know, but it will certainly help him having the GoP establishment in his corner re inquiries, etc.
rex douglas @ #1732 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:37 pm
So Shorten got a good result for the workers, the business and the union? And you think this is a bad thing … why, exactly?
Rex Douglas
My understanding is that some unions negotiate with some businesses to provide services such as specific training for a fee.
That you characterise this as “kickbacks”, shame on you. Dodgy deals work in both directions and the last I heard of all the millions wasted on the RC, I think only one case in the ACT made it to court and it got thrown out.
That it was a politically motivated witch hunt to try and destroy Julia G, Bill S and the unions is undoubted in my mind.
poroti @ #1734 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:40 pm
Nah! He couldn’t even do that properly – it took him two attempts!
player one @ #1728 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:35 pm
Convince me the Greens have had suspect dealings with business ?
Monica Lynagh Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:25 pm
PhoenixRED
If you still happen to be about, do you have a handle on why Americans are so wedded to a very expensive health system with such poor outcomes for those who can least afford it?
Apart from shrieking “socialism” when I have attempted to explain ours to some, I can’t get a grip on it.
*************************************
Probably the Republicans that like it are the ‘hard core party faithful’ – who give total support to ANY policy decision no matter how bad or stupid it is and similarly hate anything the Democrats come up with, especially to a black President, especially one born in Kenya ( to them anyways ) ……. similarly with say the LNP here …
However polling suggests they are in the minority :
A very small minority of U.S. voters, just 17 percent of them, support the Republican plan to repeal and replace key parts of Obamacare, while 56 percent of voters disapprove of the bill, which is headed for a do-or-die vote Thursday, a new poll shows.
“Replacing Obamacare will come with a price for elected representatives who vote to scrap it, say many Americans, who clearly feel their health is in peril under the Republican alternative,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
The Quinnipiac poll found that 85 percent of voters said it is “very important” for health insurance to be affordable to Americans. Another 13 percent said that was “somewhat important.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/americans-strongly-oppose-republican-plan-to-replace-obamacare.html
Yep, put the blame firmly where it belongs is rational.
monica lynagh @ #1738 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:43 pm
Monica, not everything is as it seems. Believe me (or not).
lizzie
It makes for an entirely new and entertaining game, though probably not as spine tingling as the Donald saga.
I can’t believe he hoofs off to golf every weekend at a cost of $3 million a time and people aren’t after him with pitch forks. Makes Bronnie B look like restrained.
MTBW
#1733 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 4:39 pm
No, it wasn’t. The truth came out very, very slowly.
Personally, Shortens selling out of Gillard was unconscionable in my opinion.
He had a safe seat that wasn’t at risk and all it did was shore up a few extra factional seats for himself after the election.
A craven act.
Monica Lynagh
Yes, unbelievable chutzpah, after saying that he’d ‘have no time for golf’.
I still haven’t forgiven that &^%((% Hawke for overthrowing Bill Hayden.
Bloody union hack bastard.
Oh wait. Scrub that. He was one of the good guys.
He turned around in Parliament!
TURNED AROUND.
PhoenixRED
Thanks.
I believe I read in an earlier report you linked that one of the things the hard core lot wanted was to exclude maternity care. That’s how you know they’re crazy.