BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. The National Farmers Federation has called for a market-based mechanism to secure clean and affordable energy, such as an emissions intensity scheme, joining a long list of organisations urging an end to Australia’s policy impasse.

    In a submission to the Finkel review, the NFF calls for the government to reconsider its opposition to an EIS and institute a market-based mechanism by 2020 because it would be the cheapest path to low-emissions power generation.

    The NFF joins many organisations calling for consideration of a market mechanism including network company Energy Networks Australia, retailer Energy Australia, electricity provider AGL, the Climate Change Authority, the Business Council of Australia and the CSIRO.

    The chief scientist, Alan Finkel, has also given implicit support for an emissions intensity scheme, saying it would integrate best “with the electricity market’s pricing and risk management framework” and “had the lowest economic costs and the lowest impact on electricity prices”.

    In December the energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, ruled out pursuing an EIS, pre-empting the findings of the Finkel report by taking one of the most widely supported policies to meet Paris climate targets off the table.

    So where’s Barnaby, the so-called friend of the farmers, in all this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/07/national-farmers-federation-joins-calls-for-market-mechanism-to-lower-carbon-emissions

  5. Good morning all,

    Interesting story re the proposed ” super portfolio “. The idea is being pushed by someone within Cabinet but who could that be ? Perhaps Minister Dutton has dome ideas on that.

    Amyway, we are in the early stages of a huge unfolding turf war between several Ministers. Who will Turnbull back and who will Turnbull piss off ? Going on his record Turnbull will end up pissing off everyone.

    Cheers.

  7. Voice Endeavour

    ‘just to clarify, you’re criticising the Greens for doing what Lib U did in his 8:33 post?’

    I’m not particularly interested in what LU did in any post.

  8. Voice Endeavour – go back and read the story again … I read it twice to see if I understood:

    this is the par in question

    “The new data from Essential suggests voters are not particularly sold on either major party leader, with 20% nominating Turnbull as the best leader out of a form guide of of six potential candidates, and 21% nominating Shorten – although Shorten has made up ground since the same question was asked last November.”

  9. We know why the Homeland Security idea has been revived.

    Turnbull: Bad polls. AFP what do you have for me?

    AFP: We are out of terror raids the cupboard is bare. We will have to go with Homeland Security again.

  12. political_alert: Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris is in Sydney today and will give a speech at the Lowy Institute for International Policy at 12:45pm #auspol

  13. from what I have understood as to the state of play re Kremlingate.

    Trump goes on a rant about Trump Tower being wiretapped by Obama.
    As has been reported by some early in the piece and now the rest of the msm is catching up with, a FISA warrant was obtained in October by Comey. the Scope of that warrant was to investigate communications on two Russian banks with a server being in Trump tower. the FISA warrant also covered US persons.
    Trump may have very well have found out the exact details of the FISA warrant. after all he is the President. The thought is that perhaps Bannon (his right wing man) leaked it to Briebart news about Obama wiretapping Trump Tower in order to poison the well so to speak. either way. this is very unpresidential conduct to say the very least.

  15. Okay downloaded the actual report and it makes a lot more sense than the article!

    One thing to note is that Malcolm is liked more by opposing party while Libs themselves aren’t so keen, in comparison to Shorten is more liked by ALP voters than opposing parties.

    I wonder whether this reflects how dangerous the Libs think Shorten is compared to how ALP voters think Turnbull is? i.e. people instinctively dislike an opposing leader who they think might take power?

  16. victoria

    OK – got it thanks.

    There’s a special top secret Federal court that handles such sensitive warrant requests, which are issued under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, which allows for intelligence gathering against foreign spies and terrorists. They key words in FISA are the first two: foreign intelligence. Warrants are only issued against foreign targets which are deemed to be plausibly involved in espionage or terrorism against the United States.

    However, Americans who call or email those suspicious foreigners may appear in signals intelligence collection, although under FISA their identities are concealed in SIGINT reports in a process the IC terms “minimization.” In other words, your civil liberties as an American do not include the right to communicate with foreign bad guys without possible monitoring. Keep in mind, though, that under FISA the people being targeted are foreign spies and terrorists, not Americans.

    Maybe he reads Pollbludger 😀 –

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/03/05/bludgertrack-53-5-46-5-labor/comment-page-12/#comment-2552162

    He’s not telling us much we don’t already know.

  17. I also think the Essential of 2 weeks ago that had a sudden drop for ALP from 37 to 34 was an aberration since is has been back at 37 the 2 weeks since

  18. Should we whisper this in the ears of the Turnbull Cabinet? Baseload solar is possible.
    “Tamarugal Solar Project in the Tarapacá region will provide reliable, non-intermittent electricity from solar energy 24-hours a day ”

    SolarReserve is a leading global developer, owner and operator of utility-scale solar power projects, with more than $1.8 billion of projects in operation worldwide, and development and long-term power contracts for 480 megawatts of solar projects representing $2.9 billion of project capital. The company has commercialized its proprietary advanced solar thermal technology with integrated molten salt energy storage that delivers renewable baseload power 24-hours per day. The technology is now one of the leading energy storage technologies worldwide, and allows solar energy to operate like traditional fossil-fired and nuclear electricity generation – except the fuel is the sun which means zero emissions, zero hazardous waste, and zero dependence on fuel price volatility.

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170306005371/en/

  20. What a laugh. 2% of the population think our current treasurer is the best leader of the Liberal Party. They should stop faffing about and elect Mr Don’t Know

  21. It’s tempting to think of Trump as a fluke, and to believe that at the end of his administration everything will return to normal. Many people hold a darker view, though—among them Yascha Mounk, the co-founder of a new watchdog group called After Trump. A lecturer on government at Harvard and a fellow at the New America Foundation, Mounk thinks the stakes are high. “Most people,” he told me, “are thinking about Trump as a policy problem: how he will lead to the deportation of undocumented immigrants or lead the U.S. to pull out of the Paris climate agreement. But I think Trump is also potentially an authoritarian threat to the survival of liberal democracy.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/containing-trump/513854/

  22. CTar1

    Lol!
    poll bludger knows more than most of the msm have reported thus far in the US. I was following the FISA warrant last year as was reported by a few back then. it is becoming a focus now that things are moving along in Trumpland. see my latest post above.

  23. TPOF@1361. Brilliant! Pope is not only the cleverest cartoonists, his technical drawing is also excellent – the Putin lung is technically correct (down to the oil leak), as is the Orange Fishwife’s hairstyle. I was around hospitals in the sixties, when iron -l ungs were still in use.

    Every now and then, I wonder if some of the Trots-turned-Tories that inhabit the upper strata of the alt-right misinformation chain are deep sleeper agents of the failed state. They finally have useful idiots in all positions of authority in the Anglosphere (save Canada) – and they don’t know what to do with the car they caught. Trump will bring them down just as surely as Nixon did.

  24. The impact of climate change on the Australian environment and its ecosystems is increasing and some aspects may be irreversible, the latest State of the Environment report has warned.

    The condition of the environment was “poor” and “deteriorating” in some areas, despite improvements in the marine environment and the Murray-Darling Basin, according to the report.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/state-of-the-environment-report-warns-impact-of-climate-change-increasing-and-pervasive-20170306-gus3g6.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  26. Guytaur

    it is obvious to anyone looking that Trump is threatening liberal democracy, which is why in recent past I emphasised that if Clinton had managed to win the election, things would be no better right about now. he was not joking when he said that he intended to lock her up. Trump’s fellow travellers and the Republican members of congress, as well as his loyal base would have been riled and ready to go with mass protests, and it would not be long before she was impeached.
    he obviously managed to win and is going about implementing his vision. meanwhile the European intel and US intel have been gathering information for quite some time regarding his shady dealings. if they can prevail and not be literally Trumped, it will in effect have been part of a strategy to save the democracy. i know it sounds overblown. but if anyone takes a step back and do an overview of how things have played out, it is has obvious as the nose on one’s face.

  27. Victoria,
    The other issue with Trump relate to his myriad business interests that have direct links to Russian business figures. It involves complicated loan structures, tax avoidance and questionable deals with one person in particular.
    Much of this has been uncovered by a US on line news outlet, and is unverified. From memory it as The Palmer Report.
    This story of Trumps interwoven business interests with Russian oligarchs will grow and will increase pressure on Trump to release his secret tax returns.
    The NYT, WaPost and WSJ will have full time resources on this story alone. It’s ain’t going away.

  29. @ Zoomster – nice avoiding the question.

    Let me rephrase.

    It is a very common thing for people to do, when providing a hyperlink, to replace the hyperlink text with their own description of the article. This is much more common than repeating the heading provided at the article in question, because you can tailor it to be relevant to the audience, and make it less clickbaity than the media does.

    If that is what you are criticising the Greens for doing, then you are being ridiculous.

    So, I repeat, is that what you are doing?

  30. Victoria

    I don’t think Trump would have gone the violent route. However such a theory does explain how President Obama handled things so it does have some legs.

  33. guytaur Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 10:11 am

    It’s tempting to think of Trump as a fluke,

    ****************************************************

    ……as well as a flake …

  34. Cud Chewer

    Actually, I doubt whether governments such as Turnbull’s would be willing to commit sufficient funds until the evidence is so compelling that even the dumbest will agree, by which time it will be too late.


  35. victoria
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 10:21 am

    ….
    ave been part of a strategy to save the democracy. i know it sounds overblown. but if anyone takes a step back and do an overview of how things have played out, it is has obvious as the nose on one’s face.

    It is starting to look like a simple case of “give the guy enough rope”.

  36. lizzie @ #1352 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 9:42 am

    The National Farmers Federation has called for a market-based mechanism to secure clean and affordable energy, such as an emissions intensity scheme, joining a long list of organisations urging an end to Australia’s policy impasse.

    This is good news. I have always wondered why farmers – who have been seeing the evidence first hand for a few years now – have such a blind spot when it comes to global warming. Perhaps this is beginning to change.

  38. Victorian State politics

    BrendanDonohoe7: Labor MP Don Nardella has resigned from parliamentary Labor Party after showdown with Premier over residential allowance rorts. #7NewsMelb

  39. Victorian State politics

    BrendanDonohoe7: Labor MP Don Nardella has resigned from parliamentary Labor Party after showdown with Premier over residential allowance rorts. #7NewsMelb

    Resigned before he was shown the door?

  40. However soon or late the Trump ‘problem’ ends up being resolved, the damage to the US (& Australia’s by way of association) will have been done and it will be extensive; and almost certainly beyond recovery.
    Just look at how many corrosive ideas people like Cori Bernardi bring back from their visits and associations there.
    Our social democracy and mostly inclusive society is undoubtedly at serious risk.

  41. Booleanbach

    Privitisation is a good example of this. Once we all knew the role of government was to provide services for the country. Now its all outsourced.

    On Late night on ABC Local radio the Issue of the Day was privitisation. Cleary asked callers to name one good example of privitisation. He did not get any in the whole segment. Not even any Liberal party people bothered to ring in to defend it.

  47. Victoria

    My admiration for the job Andrews is doing grows. I doubt he will do a Napthine. If the ex Labor MP behaves as badly as that MP did back then.

  48. guytaur @ #1391 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:13 am

    Booleanbach
    Privitisation is a good example of this. Once we all knew the role of government was to provide services for the country. Now its all outsourced.
    On Late night on ABC Local radio the Issue of the Day was privitisation. Cleary asked callers to name one good example of privitisation. He did not get any in the whole segment. Not even any Liberal party people bothered to ring in to defend it.

    Much of the grass roots of the Liberal Party are opposed to privatisation. I have met some who are vehemently opposed. It is weird that they support the Libs.

  49. Player one

    Not all farmers have a blind spot on climate change.

    Dig past the rusted on Nats and you will find more than a few who are well aware of the reality.

    As recently as Sunday there was a feature on ABC’s Landline on fruit and vegetable growers investing heavily in measures such as sheds with retractable roofs and other types of protection as the weather becomes more unpredictable.

  50. Vic

    One thing that is obvious to me is that Bannon must be incredibly frustrated at this point.

    He gives Trump one of his nutty ideas to ‘run up the flagpole’ and, then before Bannon can evaluate the real response to it and formulate a counter-response, Trump goes off the ‘reservation’ and fires off mad tweets because some obscure journalist in ‘Buttf#ck, Nebraska’ has said it’s a bad idea and Trump is a dickhead.

    It’s a real circus.

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