Tomorrow’s Sunday Times has a poll from Galaxy, related via Twitter, showing Labor with a 54-46 lead, which is all I can tell you about it at this stage (other than that it’s more in accordance with my own perceptions that ReachTEL’s statewide results). More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 40%, Liberal 31%, Nationals 5%, One Nation 9%, Greens 8%. Other findings: Mark McGowan leads Colin Barnett 46-33 on preferred premier; 42% are in favour of “Labor’s plan to cancel the Perth Freight Link and redirect some of the money to Metronet and other road projects”, with 38% opposed; and 38% say the Liberal Party is more likely to reduce state debt, compared with 37% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1115.
AS TONY GREIG WOULD SAY
CORLIN BORNETT IS FORKED
If you zoom in on that front page, you can just make out a few primaries.
One Nation 9, Greens 8, National 5
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-mark-mcgowan-and-labor-set-to-sweep-into-power-says-galaxy-poll/news-story/12fdf40c1826722e3f030afd8a7af747
WA Election 2017: Mark McGowan and Labor set to sweep into power, says Galaxy poll
Joe Spagnolo, PerthNow
16 minutes ago
MARK McGowan is poised to become WA Premier, with an exclusive poll for The Sunday Times predicting Labor will win Saturday’s State election.
An exclusive Galaxy poll of West Australians, commissioned by The Sunday Times, shows Labor has a 54 to 46 per cent lead over the Liberal-National alliance on a two-party preferred basis.
The poll, which has a history of giving the most accurate prediction of voter intentions, suggests Labor would achieve an 11 per cent swing since the 2013 State election.
A swing of this magnitude on Saturday would see Labor pick up 14 seats from the Liberals to form a majority government.
Labor needs to win 10 seats from the Liberals to seize power.
With six days to the election, key poll findings included:
PRIMARY support for Labor has surged to 40 per cent. This is almost seven percentage points higher than in 2013.
SUPPORT for the Liberals has slumped to just 31 per cent, more than 16 points lower than four years ago.
STATEWIDE support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at 9 per cent, while the Greens are steady at 8 per cent and the Nationals have slipped to 5 per cent. Support for other minor parties and Independents is 7 per cent.
ON THE question of preferred premier, Mr McGowan holds a commanding 46 to 33 per cent lead over Colin Barnett, who is now one of WA’s longest serving premiers.
The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday, based on the opinions of 1115 voters across WA.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-predicted-swing-from-galaxy-poll-to-strike-fear-in-liberals-and-nationals/news-story/3e5d95a6941944c33cfcf830ab1e60cc
WA Election 2017: Predicted swing from Galaxy poll to strike fear in Liberals and Nationals
Joe Spagnolo – ANALYSIS, PerthNow
18 minutes ago
TODAY’S Galaxy poll will strike fear in the hearts of Liberal and National MPs.
Fingers & toes crossed.
This is a big margin & is a bit hard to swallow. I thought 52 was a bit low but 54 seems too high.
The electorate voted Liberal in droves at the last two elections. It’s hard to see Labor winning back enough seats to govern.
This poll seems more consistent with the original Reachtell result and the marginal seat polls earlier. Adieu Colin Barnett.
MacGowan will face a difficult task to get WA back to work. Unless a hostile federal government is willing to be more flexible in the use of funding, the task is almost impossible for a state where mining royalties are in decline.
The first thing Macgowan should do in office is to raise WA mining royalties to at least the same level as other states. WA needs the mney and the miners have done it no favours since the boom ended. Despite the threats, it will not make any difference to the viability of the big iron ore mines, which are the most profitable in the world.
One more thing – will this election spell Peak Hanson? And will it hasten the end of the largely irrelevant National Party?
Lib primary was 47% at last state election, looks like 1 in 3 Lib voters have changed their vote.
It makes sense that its swinging towards ALP after the penalty rates decision.
Scorates, they need to change their royalties so it applies to Fortescue as well, Nats want to increase royalties for BHP and RIO, but not FMG, its just crazy or corrupt, not sure which.
bug1 @ #8 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 8:56 am
I’m not across the specifics of the Nationals policy here, so this is purely my own personal opinion.
BHP and Rio are mining the highest quality deposits, thus make much more money than FMG et al. There were also a number of concessional arrangements put in place when their predecessors started producing in the Pilbara which apply to this day.
FMG have 5 mines and the deposits are of a lower grade, thus they make less money. There have also been recent concern around the financial viability of the company.
silentmajority @ #4 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 3:40 am
I don’t agree, I’m surprised its not worse. I’ve been out campaigning in Swan Hills and voters here are waiting for Frank Alban with cricket bats. Particularly in the wealthier areas I’ve lost track of the amount of anti Colin comments I’ve heard.
Grimace, that info is a bit out of date, FMG BHP and RIO have very similar production costs, breakeven is about $30 per tonne, with spot prices predicted to be around $80 for the next 6 months or year.
Currently the royalty is only 25c (or something) and only applies once the company is 25years old, they also pay $5 or $6 from the 7% (IIRC) they pay on the sale price.
Nats wanted to increase the fixed price royaly from $0.25 to $7, which only applies to BHP and RIO, so suddenly FMG’s costs are 25% below BHP and RIO.
FMG is the 4th biggest iron ore exporter and just as profitable, they shouldn’t be given a free ride.
A fundamental principle of good government is that it should create a level playing field, and not play favorites. If they want more money from miners they should increase the tax on sale price, or if they increase the fixed royalty make it apply based on volume exported rather than age of the company.
Socrates
McGowan will face a tough task.
Barnett and Nahan leave behind an empty bank account and a maxed out credit card.
Thev Feds will want to be wary about playing tough and denying WA money for infrastructure. That would give Labor a solid base to campaign on and Ministers like Porter are already in danger on current figures. They wouldn’t want them any worse.
Even Forrest from FMG says the Nats plan is a bad idea and they would get a competitive advantage out of it.
Whether it is ‘time’ I guess time will tell. The polls have been negative for the LNP for a long time now. I sense that people may have made up their minds and not much of what Barnett is saying is being heard let alone listened to. It is still a steep hill for Labor and there are lot of “ifs and buts” but if polling has any credibility at all then Labor is well placed to win. It is after this Labor has the job ahead. The Insiders have predicted a Labor victory or a hung parliament with Labor the majority. However, and I did not catch who it was who said it, the panel were a bit skittish after what happen re polls in the US Presidential elections……….which is odd seeing the way in which elections are run in the US are quite different to here and despite Clinton holding quite a big lead in the popular vote. Colin, like his government, is old and tired and it is time for a change. Even if Labor had such a government and in the same position it would also be time for change.
bug1 @ #11 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 9:59 am
Fair enough. I’m all for the increase to the royalty payment and believe that it should go MUCH further, both in iron ore and all other minerals including oil & gas.
If you can’t or don’t want to pay, fuck off and let someone else have a go. The minerals have been there for millions of years, we don’t need to dig them up right now, they’ll still be there in a few years when someone else decides they want to have a go.
I’d like t think so, but there is something strange in the water in QLD.
rossmcg @ #12 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 10:04 am
I had a long discussion yesterday with a Nationals voter and we both agreed that early in the next term there would be a deal done between the Nationals and whoever wins government.
When the punters are given a choice between the big miner getting it in the neck or a significant cuts to health, education, transport etc it’ll be a bad time to be Rio and BHP.
rossmcg @ #12 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 10:04 am
I had a long discussion yesterday with a Nationals voter and we both agreed that early in the next term there would be a deal done between the Nationals and whoever wins government.
When the punters are given a choice between the big miners getting it in the neck or a significant cuts to health, education, transport etc it’ll be a bad time to be Rio and BHP.
When the swing is on it’s on. It’s the oldest truism in politics. I would not be surprised to see a swing of 12 to 15 per cent.
This poll will help with the bandwagon effect – the dwindling undecideds will jump on board.
Imacca – it is the lack of fluorine in the water; it leads to mental caries in the electorate.
[Whether it is ‘time’ I guess time will tell.]
At the last election there was a very unpopular labour Federal Govt, or , if my maths and memory serve it was some 6 months after the Emperor was re-elected that Tony become PM.
If you stood by your window on the Terrace and thought about it, you’d have been able to see the economic storm clouds off Rotto but not so many of us got to do that.
I also noted yesterday while out door knocking a ‘Great big new secret taxes’ lib truck. And those liberal scum and in particular the PM’s moron fanclub in the MSM complained about ‘mediscare’.
Bring it home WA Labor! Great numbers, looking forward to see Colin take a tumble.
On Hanson, I’m afraid we won’t see PHON peak until the Queensland election, after which I predict a repeat of 1998, with PHON MPs splitting all over the place.
LABOR with a 40 infront of it is pretty amazing itself.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2017/03/groundhog-day-group-ticket-nonsense.html
Groundhog Day: Group Ticket Nonsense Returns To WA
I also believe a 54-46 TPP sounds a bit hard to believe. Not that I don’t think the outcome will be pretty drastic, but I still stand by the believe that while state-wide TPP will seems rather close, the seat margins in key seats will see huge swings but will be averaged out in other seats.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/patchy-polling-in-wa-as-final-week.html
Patchy Polling In WA As The Final Week Begins
“there is something strange in the water in QLD.” (Imacca, yesterday)
Indeed. Way back years ago I worked as a consultant to EARC when it was conducting an inquiry into a possible Bill of Rights for Queensland. We got lots of favourable submissions but also these crazy ones that said “We don’t need a Bill of Rights – we already have the common law and Magna Carta”. Apparently they thought that you could plead “breach of Magna Carta” as a defence to an oppressive charge in a court of law. Some then added the 10 commandments or other Bible references, as if they were all also automatically enforceable as some superior, overriding, law of Queensland. They tended to come from the Gympie-Maryborough area (ie the Mary River valley) with another smaller group from South Rockhampton. (Why South Rocky in particular I’ve never found out.)
One day I happened to arrive just as the learned Commissioners were all leaving to hold a public hearing in Gympie. I half-jokingly said “Don’t drink the water up there”. A couple of years later I read that there were concerns that all the old gold mines up in the upper reaches of the Mary Valley were leaking heavy metals into the Mary! Maybe my joke hadn’t been a joke.
Pauline flies into WA with five days to go. She is the story and will remain that way. Rock star. Talking head. Cameras and microphones everywhere. Hugs, smiles, a few words about Colin or Malcolm or Vladimir. More handshakes. Policies – well you all know what I stand for. Have to go, more people to meet. Poll out Friday – ALP set to win, and Pauline set to rout Nats in Upper House.
Monday. Colin blames Malcolm while Pauline sets sail for Qld. Press Gallery salivate. Tony? Julie? Scott or how about Christian? Yawn.
Michaela Cash shows that WA federal Libs are all class too. Why should the rules apply to her too? And who can blames somebody with over a million dollars in negative geared propery from lobbying within gobernment to keep negative gearing deductions in place? Perfectly ethical. Who needs transparency or fairness? Those young’uns will just have to get higher paid jobs.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michaelia-cash-caught-out-failing-to-declare-14m-investment-property-20170306-gurikn.html
The Nats plan is for a $5.00 tonne royalty, up from 25c which they have been paying since before I was born in the early ’60’s.. When all is cut & dried, everyone might settle for $2.50.
Imagine that, these fine upstanding international corporate citizens have been paying a genuine peppercorn rent since the inception of iron ore mining in Western Australia and they are fighting tooth and nail to not pay a penny( yes a genuine penny because it was originally 2 shillings & sixpence) more. They are running ads thru the CME (sounds like a union, doesn’t it? Well it is. A union for mining companies) that cry poor while they cut jobs & automate & pump out as much product as they can for the lowest of prices to put pressure on the smaller producers.
They have to be made to pay. Much more.
The rumoured polls are even worse than the official ones. Has Barnett given up?
http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/leaked-liberal-polling-forecasts-huge-wa-election-loss-for-premier-colin-barnett-20170306-gus1q0.html
Labor will be desperately short of cash in a state short of jobs. The first thing Macgowan must explain is how low Barnett and the Liberals kept royalties, compared to other states. They must at least be raised to parity with, say Qld. The Liberals opposition to the Rudd MRRT is exposed as particularly cynical given that WA state did not take up the slack.
New WA election thread.