ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia

A week out from the big day, a new poll finds the Greens well up, One Nation well down, the major parties little changed, and two-party preferred breaking in favour of Labor.

With just over a week to go before election day, the latest Western Australian state poll from ReachTEL gives Labor a 52-48 lead, compared with 50-50 at its last poll a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Liberal 34.6% (down 0.8%), Nationals 6.8% (down 1.6%), Labor 35.2% (up one 0.2%), Greens 10.7% (up a remarkable 4.7%) and One Nation a rather subdued 8.5% (down 3.2%). Whereas the previous ReachTEL poll was conducted for The West Australian, this one was conducted for Fairfax (assuming it wasn’t a joint arrangement of some sort). Further detail to follow.

UPDATE: After distribution of 5.3% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.2%, Liberal 34.6%, Nationals 6.8% (keeping in mind that they were listed as an option for all respondents, but are only running candidates in the non-metropolitan area), Greens 10.7% and One Nation 8.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

33 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia”

  1. I don’t know what to make of Reachtel polls to be honest. Newspoll seems to react better to events and follow a logical trend.

  2. I think polling in WA is generally too irregular to be able to draw too many conclusions, sea by seat polling does not have a great record and privately commissioned polling is always to be treated as suspect.

  4. I continue to question the sanity of protest voters who flip between PHON and the Greens. No matter which one you’re ideologically closest too there’s a fuck ton of minor parties you could protest vote for who are closer to your position.

  6. I lack your optimism Briefly , but I hope you’re right. If they fail to win anything it should take their gloss off in other states a bit too and hurt their polling generally. Though they’ll get some of it back when Queensland hits the polls unless they implode first.

  7. Elau….The polls are most unlikely to be showing voters thinking of voting ON one day and G the next. The variation is an artefact of sampling a large and disparate electorate.

    It does appear that the ON bubble is deflating quickly. This is to be expected.

  8. I think it’s more likely that the swing voters have fuzzied out and left the Libs, Nats and PHON, and moved towards Labor, the Greens and other minor parties.

  9. Lol! My mum was probably going to vote PHON. Then she got a visit from the local candidate, decided from that discussion that the candidate was an complete idiot with no knowledge of local issues and will never in a month of sundays vote for her. 🙂

  11. Judging by polling results there are some voters who swing between Green and One Nation but they are just trying to make a threatening protest vote. Its like how the polls consistently find 3-7% of Greens respondent who strongly oppose fundamental policy like climate change action.

  13. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/one-nation-candidate-quits-kalamunda-candidacy/8323792

    One Nation candidate Ray Gould quits Kalamunda a week out from election
    By Claire Moodie
    Updated 13 minutes ago

    There are further signs of disunity in Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, with one of its candidates in a key Liberal-held seat quitting the election campaign in Western Australia a week out from the poll.

    Candidate for Kalamunda, Ray Gould, told the ABC he was “giving it away” because the party had been dishonest with its candidates over its preference deal with the Liberals.

  14. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/wa-election-flux-microparty-running-fake-independent-candidates/8323342

    WA election: Flux the System micro-party puts up 26 fake independent candidates
    By Rebecca Turner
    Updated 11 minutes ago

    Flux the System, a micro-party which is using self-styled preference whisperer Glenn Druery as a consultant, is running 26 fake independent candidates for the Legislative Council in the WA election.

    The candidates have been listed as independents on ballot papers for the election but “are our candidates”, Flux the System campaign director Daithi Gleeson said.

    In the North Metropolitan region, for example, the candidates include Doubleview personal trainer Raoul Kawusu Conteh Smith and Success machine operator Michael Carey.

    They are listed as part of an “independent” voting ticket above the line on the region’s Legislative Council ballot paper.

    The party is running more disguised candidates than official ones, of which there are 24 between the upper and lower houses.

  15. All the evidence seems to be pointing to a Labor win at this stage, which would be a remarkable achievement. I wonder if those on the ground could give some insight as to where the Liberals are focusing their defence? I assume they’re not bothering with West Swan or Collie-Preston, and just looking at the margins you’d have to think they’d’ve given up on Belmont, Forrestfield and Perth as well. Are they really trying in Swan Hills and Morley, or are they throwing everything at seats further up the pendulum like Balcatta, Mount Lawley, etc? I’ll also be fascinated to see how the Lib-Nat contests go, especially given that One Nation’s chances of making the final two in any seat appear to be fading (they’ve already lost or disendorsed three of their 35 candidates – how many more can they lose before election day!?).

    Thanks Leroy for linking that story about Flux. Hopefully Antony Green is right in thinking that this will be the last election conducted with GVT. Of course Labor would have to reverse course on that but surely they can justify it by saying it brings it in line with the federal system and so reduces confusion. Won’t hold out hope for a progressive LC majority to deal with LC malapportionment, but it sure would be nice.

  19. That story Rossmcg linked to is the front page story. Headline LIBS LAST HOPE
    https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/837807627140640768

    WA election campaign takes negative turn as polling day draws near
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/wa-election-campaign-takes-negative-turn-polling-day-near/8323492

    WA election: The micro-business party’s ‘link’ with taxi industry may bring headache for government
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/micro-business-party-denies-taxi-industry-link-despite-campaign/8323912

  20. If the West’s editorial for today, Saturday, is anything to go by (“Vote for the Devil you know”…wtte) then the paper seems to have seen the writing on the wall. The paper sees it coming down to four seats of which Labor has to win two to gain office. This suggests that any seat below a 10% swing the LNP has tacitly given away. In addition to which the paper’s resident mouth-piece for the Liberals, Paul Murray, has a spray at ON – rather than Labor, his usual whipping horse – to the effect that ON and other micro parties have a policy deficit and hence should be ignored. The tie in with Murray’s item and the editorial is fairly obvious I would have thought. I must confess some surprise that the Libs think thinks look so dire……………10 seats is still a hell of a hill to climb for Labor. Of some significance is that some big Liberal posters have been changed during the week – the the old ones kind of tick for Liberals and cross for Labor gone – with the new ones a straight out attack on McGowan and, wait for it………..”higher taxes under Labor”. This suggests the bottom of the barrel in tactics has been about reached for them.

  21. Joondalup, Kalamunda, Bicton and Southern River, which have safe margins of between 10 per cent and 11 per cent, have become winnable seats for Labor.

    If just two of the electorates are lost on March 11, it would almost certainly spell the end for the Government, which has all but written off half a dozen of its key marginal seats.

    This is bad reporting. There are nine Liberal seats with smaller margins than those four. If Labor wins all those marginals then they need just one the above named. The Libs need them all.

    It also implies that the government thinks they’re safe everywhere else. But what about Wanneroo? Burns Beach? Bunbury? Riverton? Pilbara?? There have even been reports of Darling Range and Jandakot being shaky.

  22. wait for it………..”higher taxes under Labor”.

    But, but…state governments don’t levy taxes (although I suppose technically speaking, they can if they really wanted to).

    Hopefully voters take that for the insult to their intelligence that it is.

  23. David Walsh
    It’s not necessarily bad reporting. Swings are pretty much never completely uniform. It’s entirely possible swings with lesser theoretical margins are safer, if the circumstances of the seat indicate it will have a smaller swing than the state. It works the otherway too, sometimes seats with very large theoretical margins prove to be unsafe because of local issues.

  24. Elaugaufein,

    Sure, swings aren’t uniform. But the pendulum is still a good guide to figuring out which seats will go which way. And when just four seats – which all appear consecutively on the pendulum – are declared to be decisive, it implies that all the other seats have been given away.

    Now a more generous reading of the article implies the Libs haven’t given up on the more marginal Balcatta and Mount Lawley. But if that’s the case, then why not group them with the other four seats? Why are they not also “last-stand battlegrounds”?

  26. PHON is a cynical moneymaking operation, little Aussie Battler not Pauline I have heard she is not short of a quid & is looking forward to harvesting lots of Dollars when the votes are counted.
    After that I don’t think she cares One Notion is imploding before it starts, how people are suckered by her I am buggered if I know

  27. ON TV ads in WA mere one-liners……………..with PH the star…………She: ‘Look at the 41 $$$ billion debt!’ ‘And you still vote for them?’ Gee, if only it were so easy……..but….it seems there are people out in voter land who just don’t want to switch their brains on and happy to go with PH as they “believe her”. Boy, what a echo from the States where Trump voters say they believe anything he says regardless of that which anyone else says. Democracy has gone mad I tell you!

  28. https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/preference-deals-an-abuse-of-the-democratic-system-ng-b88402885z

    Preference deals ‘an abuse of the democratic system’
    Dylan Caporn
    Saturday, 4 March 2017 3:36PM

    Imagine being offered a seat in State Parliament, plus all the perks that come with it. A salary of more than $150,000, a car, an office, staff and the opportunity to voice your opinions in the place where decisions are made.

    This was the deal Cam Tinley was faced with last month and he turned it down.

    Mr Tinley, a candidate for the Micro Business Party and the group’s preference negotiator, was offered a winnable South West seat by “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery days into the State election campaign.

    The position was offered as part of an elaborate preference swap between a dozen minor parties and independents, who all gave their second preference in Upper House regions to a specific group.

  29. I live in Palmyra which is in the electorate of Bicton – which I believe is the 10th seat on the pendulum and the one Labor needs to win. Driving slowly through the suburban streets I see an awful lot of houses with a Lisa O’Malley (ALP) poster in their front yard. I have to drive quite a bit out of my way before I see the first one for Matt Taylor (Lib). It’s not hard to read this part of town.

  30. SgtThursday
    Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 9:35 pm

    Good to learn about this….thanks. From everything I’ve heard, Labor will win Bicton.

  31. frickeg @ #15 Friday, March 3, 2017 at 11:28 pm

    All the evidence seems to be pointing to a Labor win at this stage, which would be a remarkable achievement. I wonder if those on the ground could give some insight as to where the Liberals are focusing their defence? I assume they’re not bothering with West Swan or Collie-Preston, and just looking at the margins you’d have to think they’d’ve given up on Belmont, Forrestfield and Perth as well. Are they really trying in Swan Hills and Morley, or are they throwing everything at seats further up the pendulum like Balcatta, Mount Lawley, etc? I’ll also be fascinated to see how the Lib-Nat contests go, especially given that One Nation’s chances of making the final two in any seat appear to be fading (they’ve already lost or disendorsed three of their 35 candidates – how many more can they lose before election day!?).
    Thanks Leroy for linking that story about Flux. Hopefully Antony Green is right in thinking that this will be the last election conducted with GVT. Of course Labor would have to reverse course on that but surely they can justify it by saying it brings it in line with the federal system and so reduces confusion. Won’t hold out hope for a progressive LC majority to deal with LC malapportionment, but it sure would be nice.

    I’m active on the ground in West Swan. I can confirm that it is likely they’ve thrown in the towel here. I’ve seen Frank Alban a couple of time in the last couple of months (he has a semi regular gig at a seniors function in the same building my son has his playgroup) and he & his team comes across as a man resigned to defeat on 11th March.

  32. david walsh @ #21 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 4:29 pm

    Joondalup, Kalamunda, Bicton and Southern River, which have safe margins of between 10 per cent and 11 per cent, have become winnable seats for Labor.
    If just two of the electorates are lost on March 11, it would almost certainly spell the end for the Government, which has all but written off half a dozen of its key marginal seats.

    This is bad reporting. There are nine Liberal seats with smaller margins than those four. If Labor wins all those marginals then they need just one the above named. The Libs need them all.
    It also implies that the government thinks they’re safe everywhere else. But what about Wanneroo? Burns Beach? Bunbury? Riverton? Pilbara?? There have even been reports of Darling Range and Jandakot being shaky.

    John Howard was campaigning in Jandakot (~19% margin), which gives an insight into what Liberal HQ is thinking. That being the case, Liberal HQ are down to sandbagging seats and are at risk of being able to count their metropolitan seats on one hand.

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