BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. William
    When was this poll taken?
    With the WA state election next week and Parliament not sitting until week after this will be a bruising fortnight for the Coalition.

  2. Regarding WA and the merry-go-round of PHON candidates what are the procedural ramifications in regards to voting papers that have already been printed and/or sent for pre poll with all these changes at the last minute? Would the WAEC run a reprint at the last minute?

  3. trog sorrenson @ #3063 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 9:35 pm

    If Cook had been able to get ashore we’d have better penguin recipes today.

    Properly done, they taste like chicken, a bit like echidnas and koalas.

  4. Meaty, beaty, big and bouncy Labor!

    That Bludgertrack is a song I like hearing. 🙂

    Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂

  5. Is the platypus under threat?
    Nobody has done a comprehensive national assessment of its status according to Professor Kingsford.

    “For some time we’ve been hearing from platypus researchers around Australia that things are not looking so good,” he said.

    Researchers say there are a range of threats facing the platypus — such as foxes and riverbank erosion — but central to this research is what effect dams have in breaking up populations.

    “We know that small breeding populations is likely the first step to extinction,” Professor Kingsford said.

    “So we’ve seen in a lot of places where platypus used to be they’ve become extinct in different river systems and as we break up these river systems we’re essentially creating a whole lot of smaller and smaller pockets of platypus populations all of which have much greater probability of becoming extinct.”

  6. Since PHON and the Greens are currently neck and neck in bludgertrack… Has there been an analysis comparing the socio-economic status of the two parties? It’s easy to make a guess, but that might be from prejudice.

  7. Good morning.
    I fear the end is nigh.
    I have received a refund cheque from Telstra.
    I have the regimental dog on high alert which means that she will be sleeping only between meals.
    What does Telstra want ❓ Has somebody heard my wailing and gnashing of teeth ❓
    Is my help coming from the hills or is it the Assyrians descending like the wolf on the fold ❓
    Is this just a chance to put ❓ on my screen ❓
    Dammit Cynthia, now I have to make a special trip to Hamilton to consult with my favourite teller (whoever that may turn out to be) in order to deposit the cheque (for $25).
    Will my heart be able to take the anxiety?
    I must alert the favourite daughter of the necessity for this trip.
    Aha, “eureka”. It is a plot to get me to attend “Sight Savers” just around the corner from Westpac.
    How did Telstra know I need new glasses (about 10 years ago) ❓
    Has “Sight Savers” done a deal with Telstra? Did Telstra force them to move their premises?
    I think I must repair to my bed and attempt to climb back in through the assorted bits and pieces of telephone I have been playing with.
    The damn fixed line phone has developed a crackle. Will I be charged extra for this feature ❓
    Good morning again Poll Bludgers.
    ☮ ✌ Peace ❗

  8. It’s good to see President Obama, his Advisers at the time and the Intelligence community responding to Trump’s latest slanderous accusations against them:

    This Tweet in response from a former Obama Adviser was a classic:

    Ben Rhodes ✔ @brhodes
    No President can order a wiretap. Those restrictions were put in place to protect citizens from people like you.
    1:25 AM – 5 Mar 2017

  9. lizzie
    #5 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 7:24 am
    You seem to be able to find the stories that resonate with me and not in a good way. I expect that platypus are lucky that American dentists don’t want to shoot them with arrows.
    Thanks for your post. ♡

  10. Got me again William! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny writes on political delusions being mugged by reality.
    John Alexander has become, with good reason, a champion for housing affordability.
    Meanwhile tens of thousands of first home buyers will no longer have to pay stamp duty on properties worth up to $600,000 under an Andrews government plan to make housing more affordable.
    A good contribution from Lenore Taylor who says this government only sees what it wants to see.
    Trump, if ever he had it, is losing the plot as he tweets an accusation that Obama wiretapped Trump Tower.
    But President Obama reminded America of what a real president looks like by returning to demolish Trump’s lie that the former president ordered a wiretap on Trump Tower.
    Nick Xenophon will launch a new South Australian political party on Sunday called SA Best, promising to provide a genuine third alternative at the 2018 state election. Google.
    One Nation’s WA election campaign has all the hallmarks of a cynical moneymaking venture rather than a genuine quest for power writes Sydney bureau chief Ross Jones.,10079
    Big tobacco has exploited a loophole in Australia’s world-first plain-packaging laws, which allowed smokers to ditch the now famous drab packaging.
    Women and children crossing together illegally into the United States could be separated by U.S. authorities under a proposal being considered by the Department of Homeland Security, according to three government officials.

  11. Section 2 . . .

    PHON has proven to be the government’s most reliable voter in the Senate.
    Even before this 54/46 poll Turnbull was going to steer clear of WA after his previous “disastrous” visit.
    Paul McGeough tells us about the Trump administration’s fixation with Russia that goes back a long way.
    More than 1000 childcare workers will walk off the job on International Women’s Day on Wednesday to draw attention to the large pay gap between male- and female-dominated professions.
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ Sunday column.
    Will Scotland actually vote to walk away from Brexit?
    Rodney Syme says we need a new legal framework for assisted dying.
    Elizabeth Knight writes that the banking industry may ultimately end up paying a hefty price for avoiding a royal commission. Day one of the second of what will be regular Parliamentary-conducted bank inquisitions was not a pleasant affair for National Australia Bank boss, Andrew Thorburn.
    Clive James reviews the new BBC drama SS-GB.

  12. Good Morning

    Thanks again BK.

    Things are going from bad to worse for the LNP. It will be interesting to see how much the change in tone from the press gallery is reflected on Insiders.

    Have a good Recovery Day to Sydneysiders

  13. 7NewsSydney: National gun amnesty announced by Federal Government. Starts in July. No cash incentives. #7News

    Desperation brings forth a good thing.

  14. JohnCleese: People for Trump to blame when he loses the plot:
    Gwyneth Paltrow; The Taco Bell Chihuahua; Tony Bennett; Rasputin; Amelia Earhart; Harpists

  15. So it seems as though the centrepiece of the Budget in May is going to be a ‘Housing Affordability Package’, according to the John Alexander article. It also seems like the Turnbull government are going to do the most economically-foolish thing to address Housing Affordability and allow 1st Home Buyers to access their Super for a house purchase. Maybe also allow ASIC to put curbs on how much Banks can lend to Property Investors.

    Well, if they don’t touch Negative Gearing &/or Capital Gains Tax concessions, Property Investors will still be able to outbid 1st Home Buyers. It will still be in their interests to do so.

  16. One republican Trump has already lost as a fan is Arnold Schwarzenegger:
    “Schwarzenegger fired back: “I have a great idea, why don’t we switch jobs?”
    “You take over TV, because you’re such an expert in ratings, and I take over your job,” Schwarzenegger said. “And then people can finally sleep comfortably again.”

    And there is more:
    “Schwarzenegger later jokingly said to a US media outlet that he wanted “smash his face into the table,” referring to Trump.

    “I think I have to be above all that,” Schwarzenegger said. “Don’t get into a stinking contest with a skunk.”

    Perhaps Trump can bring Americans together, by giving them a common object of hatred.

  17. It also seems to me that, philosophically, the Coalition have decided that they would prefer to move people into the Housing asset class and away from Super.

  18. I suppose we are back to a Coalition Minister being interviewed on Insiders this morning?

    It seems like about a 5:1 rule. 5 Coalition: 1 Labor

  19. Catmomma

    You are right about the misguided “housing affordability package”. Without improvibg supply, letting people use their super will only add fuel to the flames. It should be called the “housing inflation package”.

    I wonder if all the Liberal ministers with investment property are hoping to use it to bail out of the market before it tanks? They are obviously not doing this to solve the problem. Has a banker spoken to them?

  20. Cat

    They had Bowen on Insiders last week so for “balance” today they have Pauline Hanson. Not as one member of cross benches as when Xenophon has been on but all by herself.

  21. Malcolm Roberts is a bigoted grub!

    Found In The Hansard‏ @inthehansard Feb 28
    Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee, 27/2/2017, p.121 #auspol

  22. C@Tmomma

    It seems that once he gets hold of an idea, he only hears words that will support him. Confirmation bias to the max! It’s a bloody tragedy that this man has gained a Senate seat and can profit from it.

  23. socrates @ #26 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 8:12 am

    As predicted Brisbane Mayor Quirk’s quirky Metro proposal has been quietly ditched and replaced by something completely different with the same name. Once again, the madness of having a state department and a Council plan major public transport works separately in the same city is exposed.

    This will be great if they actually proide buses to link suburban areas with the metro. I live in a suburb which has a high frequency (15 minute bus) which joins the busway about 4k from the city and then goes all the way into the CBD (usually takes about 20 minutes from 8k out). I live just out of comfortable walking distance from a busway station (it’s about 1k away and has inadequate parking) so using the metro by getting on there is not really viable unless I have a feeder bus. If, as I suspect, they convert my current bus so it goes almost all the way to the CBD I will quite like have a longer trip combined with a change.

    It’s my experience that these things always look marvelous until you break it down to the outcomes for individual people. In Brisbane in particular, the Council seems to have a fixation about making people change mode (or at least bus) before they get to the CBD. When they ban cars from the CBD and force drivers to park on the fringe and catch a bus the final kilometre I’ll believe the whole thing isn’t just stacked in favour of people who can afford cars and inner city parking, who will be the main ones to benefit from getting buses out of inner city streets.

    Apologies for sounding cynical, but I’m yet to see a proposal that considers the whole system, including pedestrian, car and public transport and tries to optimise it.

  24. lanesainty: ScoMo says primary issue is supply, won’t rule out capital gains tax changes.

    Another victory for Labor.

  25. edhusicMP: Politically inept #Agenda performance by ScoMo: provokes Parliament, then expects it to negotiate/work with him to pass next Budget. Amazing

  26. InsidersABC: Coming up: @barriecassidy interviews @PaulineHansonOz. On the panel: @PhillipCoorey, @murpharoo & @Riley7News. #insiders #auspol

  27. “On the panel: @PhillipCoorey, @murpharoo & @Riley7News” – an all right-wing panel, and you can throw in Barrie, as well.

  28. don @ #3 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 7:16 am

    trog sorrenson @ #3063 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 9:35 pm
    If Cook had been able to get ashore we’d have better penguin recipes today.
    Properly done, they taste like chicken, a bit like echidnas and koalas.

    Interesting, I would have guessed they had a more whale like taste (fishy).

  29. The author’s contention appears to be that small business owners are unlikely Hanson supporters. There’s no evidence for this either way; certainly I knew (and was abused by) small business owning Hanson supporters back in 1996.

    ‘It’s other Hanson talking points that have won them over: the folly of pursuing even the Coalition’s “absurd” renewable energy targets; the need to do away with Safe Schools; and winding back politicians’ entitlements.

    And significantly, a longtime Hanson calling card: the need for government to ensure that migrants assimilate…’

    So nothing in there which specifically relates to small business/white collar professionals. Is it news that SOME of these people are racist and homophobic? And why does the writer think their ‘migrants must assimilate’ chant has any significance? People have been saying this about migrants for as long as there’s been an Australia (my father, who came over in 1947, had a few stories along these lines…)

    ‘A One Nation source tells Guardian Australia that whenever the party raises the topic of Muslim immigration on social media, engagement is “off the scale”.’

    We get back to: social media talks to a selected audience. If you’re anti-Muslim, you gravitate towards ON, because they’re openly anti-Muslim. Therefore, one would expect that a sizeable number of those following ON on social media are anti Muslim and react well to anti Muslim comments. It is – to use a phrase I don’t really like – a circle jerk.

    ‘The source, who asked not to be named, says he is unaware of party research on supporter demographics. But anecdotal observations by Hanson and her Senate colleagues “on the ground” tell them the “mix of support is extraordinarily complex”.

    Mols says he has shared with major party representatives his observations that stereotypes about One Nation voters – older, less educated men in low-income areas – are misleading.

    One major party campaigner exhaled an expletive and volunteered “we may have gotten this really wrong” when considering the implications for the election, he says.

    An MP from an affluent suburban Brisbane seat also “appeared in shock” when they had a similar conversation.’

    Right. So there’s no evidence that Hanson’s demographic has shifted; it’s all anecdotal.

    If I wanted to, I could shock the nation by going out and finding Labor voters who are farmers; National voters who live in suburban Melbourne (I can even find a National Senator who does!); Liberal voters who are strong trade unionists.

    That doesn’t make statements like “farmers support the National party’ wrong for practical purposes.

    Conclusion: an article only based very shakily on evidence, and leaning heavily on anecdote.

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