BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. guytaur @ #15 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Good Morning
    Things are going from bad to worse for the LNP. It will be interesting to see how much the change in tone from the press gallery is reflected on Insiders.

    You obviously didn’t get the memo. It’s another masterful reset from PM Turnbull and what has happened is part of his brilliant plan.

  4. Her half-sentences make her almost unintelligible, but her supporters will say ‘Onyer, Pauline, stick it to him’.

  5. Hanson confirming penalty rates cuts support will lose her Labor leaning working class types.

    As zoomster pointed out in her excellent post. Its very complex.

  10. BK – My policy on ‘Insiders’ is to record it. I only watch if I see later that some of it was interesting.

    On ‘SS-GB’ – I’m surprised that Deighton allowed it to be done as a TV series after his dummy spit decades ago about ‘Game’.

    Tks for your daily links.

  12. Hanson does a very good job of confusing herself. “Inarticulate speech of the fart” … with apologies to Morrison (Van)

  18. c@tmomma @ #21 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 8:03 am

    So it seems as though the centrepiece of the Budget in May is going to be a ‘Housing Affordability Package’, according to the John Alexander article. It also seems like the Turnbull government are going to do the most economically-foolish thing to address Housing Affordability and allow 1st Home Buyers to access their Super for a house purchase.

    I can’t see this doing anything but making the housing affordability problem worse, among other poor outcomes. In addition, when most first home buyers are going into the market they don’t actually have a lot of superannuation to contribute.

  19. Hanson seems to trying to say that people should learn English.
    That would be an excellent start for Hanson.

    Indeed! I can barely understand a word she says.

  22. political_alert: Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm will visit Barcaldine Solar Farm, 10:15am AEST #auspol

    Speaking of incompetence. How to highlight the weakness in your support of fossil fuels.

  26. Morning bludgers

    Thanks fess/Dan G for posting Bill Maher last night. Caught up with it and it was a good show.

    Thanks Bk for today’s reports. William does have a way of cutting in front of you!!
    Also, been keeping up with the latest Trump Imbroglio. As Bill Maher said last night on his show, it is a page turner.
    Now he has gone on a rant about Obama etc wiretapping him etc.
    Trump is attempting to discredit and spread crapola cos he knows that it won’t be like it is all going to come down on him like a house of cards and he is lashing out like a cornered animal.

  27. Coorey saying that anecdotally the evidence is overwhelmingly there that small businesses will open more or longer. Apart from anecdote being just that, is there anything for or against this?

  28. Hanson is basically a Liberal who is openly anti-Muslim, unlike real “Liberals”, many of whom also are but who veil it in talk about “border security”, terrorism or migrants taking our jobs while bludging on the dole.

    So Pauline fully supports the Government’s attacks on the poor, the disabled, the aged and low income earners, on Medicare, on education. In this she is equal opportunity – it applies to Christians, athiests and everyone else as well as Muslims. A Labor leaning voter switching to One Nation has rocks in their head. Labor needs to say that.

  31. Steve

    Thats why Cassidy did a good interview. He exposed Hanson on issues that got her support for being for the underdog and against the elite.

    I am a critic a lot of the time. However this was a good interview exposing Hanson to voters. I hope it gets a lot of airtime on media as a result.

  32. Itzadream

    The anecdotal evidence I have re small business and penalty rates is that all the young people I know of who work in small businesses such as fruit shop, cafe, takeaway etc. all get paid cash at a minimum hourly rate for any day of the week. And a few who have worked for franchises such as Dominos have been ripped off, as they have had to drive their own car to deliver pizza and paid below award. Actually the Dominos practice is being exposed.

  33. bk @ #64 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 9:28 am

    The longer this Insiders interview goes the worse Hanson looks. Nice work from Cassidy.

    Yes, the poor precious petals who had to turn Insiders off don’t know what they missed.
    Interviewing coalition nutters and ratbags like Hanson doesn’t do them any favours.

  34. itzadream @ #77 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Coorey saying that anecdotally the evidence is overwhelmingly there that small businesses will open more or longer. Apart from anecdote being just that, is there anything for or against this?

    I call absolute rubbish on this. I’m on holidays in a very large town and everything is open today. The cafe’s can’t open longer, they are already open for breakfast and lunch, and the ones that open for dinner during the week are open for dinner today. The pubs are already open all day and night, there are only 24 hours in the day.

  35. itzadream @ #77 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Coorey saying that anecdotally the evidence is overwhelmingly there that small businesses will open more or longer. Apart from anecdote being just that, is there anything for or against this?

    I am sure an economic model could be constructed to ‘prove’ it.
    But such models are only as valid as the assumptions on which they rest.
    I have read plenty of anecdotes saying it won’t do much at all.

  36. Coorey as a representative of the business press is fully signed up to the penalty rate cuts.
    Business has been pushing for this for a long time, Turnbull knows this he cannot back down on this in full view of business.
    This wedge is massive, it was compared earlier in the week to the carbon tax on the Labor side, from a Liberal perspective, I think it is worse than that.

    This is before the debate on the company tax cut legislation gas started.

    Hanson is on record supporting company tax cuts though I don’t think she understood the question.

  37. Good morning all,

    Re Coorey and his ” evidence “. Coorey is a lazy drip fed sub contractor for Turnbull and the government. The only anecdotal evidence he has from talking to 20 Libs who are all parroting the party line.

    Time and time again the CPG rant on about pollies living in plastic bubbles and not connecting with ” rel people “. The most out of touch group in our political system is in fact the CPG.

    Cheers and a great double time and a lot more Sunday to you all.

  38. The state of Arkansas plans to put to death eight inmates over a span of 10 days next month, a pace of executions unequaled in recent American history and brought about by a looming expiration date for a drug used by the state for lethal injections.

    The eight men facing execution — four black and four white — are among 34 death row inmates in Arkansas, where capital punishment has been suspended since 2005 over legal challenges and difficulty in acquiring the drugs for lethal injections.

    All eight men were convicted of murders that occurred between 1989 and 1999, and proponents of the death penalty and victims’ rights in the state have been frustrated that the cases have dragged on so long.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/us/arkansas-death-penalty-drug.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Arkansas has among the most restrictive abortion laws in the country but rushing to executive actual human beings is okay.

  39. I also think that allowing people to access their super to buy a house is a bad idea. The same goes for the Victorian Government’s stamp duty changes, as popular as they will be. Boosting purchasing power won’t help in today’s corrupted housing market, it will only inflate it further, like first home buyers’ grants (which are actually, in effect, “vendors’ grants”).

    Doing something about supply might help, maybe there is scope to tidy up regulation and approvals, but that would only be fiddling at the edges. Short of a large scale program to build social housing, there’s not much that Government’s can or, arguably, should do (allow building in flood plains? ditch planning regulations? Increase densities to those in a third world city? Developers would love that).

    Basically, we need to get to the situation where the market for homes is like the market for cars, where people look at somewhere to live don’t have to compete with ‘investors’ looking for capital gains through asset inflation.

  40. Steve

    Daniel Andrews has done the right thing. Reducing stamp duty is a good thing when you are introducing long term leases.

    Increases supply and increases security of renters. The combination will bring down house prices as less empty houses will occur. Long term occupancy a good investment return and reduces the negative gearing part of the market.

  41. Steve

    Sorry I forgot to add. See NSW budget relying on stamp duty and the dependence on develops relationship that creates.

  42. victoria @ #82 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 10:01 am

    Itzadream
    The anecdotal evidence I have re small business and penalty rates is that all the young people I know of who work in small businesses such as fruit shop, cafe, takeaway etc. all get paid cash at a minimum hourly rate for any day of the week. And a few who have worked for franchises such as Dominos have been ripped off, as they have had to drive their own car to deliver pizza and paid below award. Actually the Dominos practice is being exposed.

    I’m an accountant and I very much doubt that the ATO doesn’t know these cash payments are going on via its data matching program.

    With the amount of data that the Government collects via BAS, AUSTRAC, income tax returns, ABS quarterly activity surveys, child support, state payroll tax and mnay other sources, combined their data matching abilities it really does stretch the bounds of believability that they don’t know about businesses which are paying cash.

  43. lizzie @ #41 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 8:47 am

    The Age‏Verified account @theage · 2m2 minutes ago
    ‘Thousands’ of Australians have reportedly downloaded plans on how to make a 3D printed gun http://ow.ly/ZGU4309ACij

    The guns have to be used very close up, and are almost as much of a danger to the user as the person targeted.

    In addition, downloading the plans is very much different to actually using them to create the gun, and then to have the courage to try it out, when you are as likely to kill yourself as hit the tin can a few metres away.

    There is also the cooking book effect – cooking books (recipes and mouthwatering illustrations) are one of the best things that the dead tree publishers have going for them – but mostly they sit on shelves, never opened once the owner has flicked through them a few times.

  44. I don’t know what Mark Kenny has been smoking, but he obviously thinks Labor are the outsiders in the WA election. Better check out what the bookies are saying Mark before you make a complete dick of yourself. Labor are at $1.33 with Ladbrokes and you can get $3.45 for the Liberals with William Hill.

    It’s by no means a done deal yet, but I’d suggest you have some some wipes on hand next weekend to remove the egg from your face.

  45. The likely problem with Andrews dropping stamp duty is that investors will find a way to scam the system. Look what happened with the GST problem with scrap gold Vs bullion gold.

  46. Greg Jericho points outs the penalty rate cut hits workers who are already hardest hit by low wage growth

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/mar/05/penalty-rates-real-life-stories-dont-stick-to-treasurers-script

    The problem for the Tories is that cutting wages and attacking conditions is holy writ. Now they don’t even have the courage to defend the idea.

    Doesnt help when the chief salesman for selling the indefensible is Morrison, a political bovver boy and economic buffoon

  47. ‘Thousands’ of Australians have reportedly downloaded plans on how to make a 3D printed gun

    Good for them. Possession of mere information should not ever be a crime.

  48. Guytaur @10:19AM: I was going off radio news bulletins which only mentioned the stamp duty cuts. I will look into it further.

    Guytaur @10:25AM. Agree. The NSW Government is addicted to pokies and stamp duty. Should the housing market ever experience a significant ‘correction’ (which must surely happen), then it will be just like WA after the mining boom ended.

  49. Darn

    I read Kenny late last night and wondered what planet he was on, having justnhad a heads up on the lastest poll.

    He was obviously working off an earlier poll. Probably wrote that on Friday before heading off to lunch.

    But being Kenny, he will no doubt switch today. He seem to work on the basis that nobody remembers what he wrote yesterday. Much of its forgettable.

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