BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Wakefield #1407 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:37 am and others,
    I think you might be missing the point here. Essential asked the same set of loaded questions with and without the association of the embedded opinions with Tony Abbott. The point was to demonstrate any “Abbott Effect” rather than to get meaningful opinions about the issues.

  2. ‘The man is delusional’: Ex-CIA official nails Trump’s ‘crazy’ ‘circus clown remarks’

    Former CIA official Phillip Mudd on Monday blasted Donald Trump’s unfounded claim that Barack Obama wiretapped Trump Tower during the 2016 presidential campaign, calling the president’s assertion “circus clown remarks.”

    Mudd argued we are “transitioning from seeing this as the President of the United States to seeing this a circus clown.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/the-man-is-delusional-ex-cia-official-nails-trumps-crazy-circus-clown-remarks/

  3. magicpudding @ #1451 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 12:52 pm

    Wakefield #1407 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:37 am and others,
    I think you might be missing the point here. Essential asked the same set of loaded questions with and without the association of the embedded opinions with Tony Abbott. The point was to demonstrate any “Abbott Effect” rather than to get meaningful opinions about the issues.

    The Essential questions really mean “Do you buy the argument that . . . .?”

  4. Former CIA official Phillip Mudd on Monday blasted Donald Trump’s unfounded claim that Barack Obama wiretapped Trump Tower during the 2016 presidential campaign, calling the president’s assertion “circus clown remarks.”

    Likening Trump to a circus clown is unfairly derogatory to circus clowns. What did circus clowns ever do to deserve such abuse?

  5. The National Party is supported by a handful of very large donors, they claim to represent farmers who have been donating to them through direct debits from the farm bank accounts since 1958. As the donation amounts are small and taken out when the wheat cheque, milk cheque comes in its easily overlooked as bank charges.

    Your average family farmer is approaching 70 and has adapted to the changing climate in South Eastern Australia over the past 50 years or gone broke.

    The noisy climate change deniers are often townsfolk, with a little bit of knowledge of engineering or geology or detailed rainfall records for the past 200 years for that district

    I expect that the National Party is controlled by coal miners, Narrabri cotton farmers and coal seam gas outfits and shortly the National Party will be funded by welfare recipients, see article below

    https://theaimn.com/lnp-welfare-card-true-facts-exposed-corruption-disguised-philanthropy/

  6. **ASX has gone from minus 23 to plus 23. Looks like their expecting movement in interest rates.**
    Nobody was expecting movement as of yesterday. Someone let the insider cat out of the bag?

  7. zoomster @ #1432 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Don Nardella has quit the Labor party and will be an independent.
    I used to have some respect for the guy.

    So far he has quit the Parliamentary Labor Party and Caucus.
    His ALP membership is a matter to be taken up by the party administration according to Premier Andrews.

  8. This is a very bad development. A judge reflecting on how he felt during the course of a difficult case (where his decision was overturned).

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/skaf-gang-rape-judge-michael-finnane-speaks-out-after-prison-psychologist-had-affairs-with-two-attackers/news-story/f729bb30f4775f4631c017dfad7d78b7

    Michael has doubled down by telling a shock jock (the loathsome and creepy, convicted criminal Chris Smith) how he felt.

    The whole thing about professionalism is knowing that the person you are helping or serving is a few orders of magnitude worse off. That person needs your undivided attention – not your self-reflections. Once the job is done, it is done.

  9. simon o katich

    Boy, crikey really does not like square brackets when copying from someone else’s post. I got the securiwall thingy.

    Once more with feeling:
    Katich, you have nested square brackets. Not good, Crikey doesn’t like those either.

    Here is something with spaces fore and aft, and square brackets:

    spaces fore and aft

  10. It seems to me that the ASX goes up or down depending on what meds the gamblers (‘investors’) are using on the day.

  11. VE
    I apologize to the Greens for ever having believed that they were part of the solution instead of a fundamental part of the problem.
    There.
    Now, let’s here how the Greens are going to apologize because they have used up vast amounts of environmentalist political oxygen while practically all our environmental indicators are going backwards.

  12. Don

    crikey really does not like square brackets when copying from someone else’s post. I got the securiwall thingy.

    Yep, if it can’t interpret them the first time they’ll hit the ‘wall’ if you try to include them in a quote. If you tried to use them around some text that included square brackets itself (like Wiki does to refer to footnotes) in the past the indent would just fail but the text (including the footnote ref) would post.

    The square brackets shortcut for blockquote is a Crickey thing, I think, and Musrums CCCP is irrelevant.

  13. Losing our democracy a bit at a time:
    Why? Mounk suspects the mutually reinforcing effects of three different but related social vectors. The first is economic anxiety. “In a lot of countries,” he says, “you’ve always had a very rapid increase in living standards from one generation to the next. That’s no longer the case in many countries in Europe and in North America.” Some of what always looked like unconditional support for democracy may actually have been conditioned on rising prosperity. The second vector is ethnic and racial anxiety: historically dominant groups’ perception (frequently accurate) that they are losing majority standing and the cultural status that goes with it. The third vector, Mounk believes, is growing economic inequality between urban centers and rural hinterlands.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/containing-trump/513854/
    This is where Abbott was heading.

  14. BW – ‘Desert Queenslander’ mentioned last night that Joe Morrison will be a contender when Warren Snowdon chucks it in.

  15. BK – it is hard to tell what the Essential questions measure. Eg immigration and house price question. Probably 70% of people currently think lower house prices are mostly a good thing (except probably in WA and maybe NT). And probably 60% or more or people think reducing immigration a bit or a lot is a good thing at present. So what does it mean that 57% of people agree with the idea of reducing immigration to make housing more affordable – that 10% or more people don’t believe that reducing immigration would reduce house prices. And if the Q was asked whether people believe that reducing immigration would reduce house prices most would be non-plussed because that would depend on a whole lot of factors or would just respond with an answer reflecting their views on immigration? Sensible questions are important if you want sensible answers.

  16. Sounds Familiar?

    Luke O’Neil‏Verified account @lukeoneil47 3h3 hours ago

    Luke O’Neil Retweeted Kyle Cheney

    Instead of paying a tax to the government, which is tyranny, you’ll pay a penalty to a corp, which is freedom

  17. This is why we need the F-35 Strike Fighter & all those submarines
    The longer-term effects on the national economy are often obscured but will be even more devastating. Weapons don’t house us, don’t clothe us, don’t help us get to work and don’t cure our diseases. Thus, in the long run, they drain resources away from productive investments, deeply undercutting the overall health of the economy.
    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39712-trump-is-bankrupting-our-nation-to-enrich-the-war-profiteers

  18. If that is what you are criticising the Greens for doing, then you are being ridiculous.

    She is a tribal creature who wants to score points on a scoreboard that exists in her head. She isn’t interested in the issues.

  19. Call me a crazed conspiracy theorist if you must, but am I the only one who thinks Trumps behaviour suggest a substance abuse problem? Crazed tweeting in the dead of night, rushing off to his vacation home on the weekends, his famous sniffles.

    I think this theory has some weight to it.

    https://twitter.com/robdelaney/status/838355788733247488

    What I wonder is what else he’s able to sneak in.

    Don’t mind me, just sitting in my tin-foil hat over here.

  20. Dubai food festival and Billy Ocean concert. Excellent. Night club after; in westetn hotel.. No alc restriction here

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