BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. I prefer the healdline on The Age website: Nardella kicked out of caucus.

    He “resigned” because Andrews asked him to leave.

  2. The Labour Lord Mayor of London is a racist.

    He is guilty of the offence most beloved of Western Liberal Nut Jobs. I wonder if WLNJs think only Scottish aspirations for self determination are racist or does it apply to the aspirations of Sadiq Khan’s artifical homeland, Parkistan.

    As if Scots needed another demonstration of the irrelevance of Unionist Labour.

  3. rossmcg @ #1399 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:21 am

    Player one
    Not all farmers have a blind spot on climate change.
    Dig past the rusted on Nats and you will find more than a few who are well aware of the reality.
    As recently as Sunday there was a feature on ABC’s Landline on fruit and vegetable growers investing heavily in measures such as sheds with retractable roofs and other types of protection as the weather becomes more unpredictable.

    Yes, I heard that. I have also been following with interest the many wineries who keep buying land for new vinyards further and further south – one day Tasmania could be our biggest wine growing region!

    So yes, some farmers do get it.

  4. SamuelLJackson: OK!! Ben Carson….I can’t! Immigrants ? In the bottom of SLAVE SHIPS??!! MUTHAFUKKA PLEASE!!!#dickheadedtom

  5. P1

    I have always wondered why farmers – who have been seeing the evidence first hand for a few years now – have such a blind spot when it comes to global warming. Perhaps this is beginning to change.

    You’ve not met many, I take it.

  6. Essential really need to work out how to ask unbiased questions. On the Abbott agenda people were asked to respond to 5 propositions.
    Abolish subsidies for renewables and cut renewable energy targets to reduce household power bills – loaded question which assumes power bills will fall (and presumably significantly).
    Abolish the Human Rights Commission to allow more free speech – loaded question
    Stop all new government spending to reduce future debt – fairly useless generic question – would answers be the same if it mentioned not proceeding with Childcare changes, for example.
    Cut immigration to make housing more affordable – loaded question
    Reform the Senate to reduce the power of small parties – not very helpful question without some context.
    Who would be surprised that there was quite a bit of support for these “push polling” type questions.

  7. CTar1

    Re farmers and global warming. It was a real !!!!!! for me to discover during a talk at a conference involving Chainsaw and Vote 1 Combet back in Rudd 1.0’s time how much farmers they had met in a number of regions were on board re climate change and taking action. On board because they were seeing its effects. What I was hearing about various farmer forums , meetings etc as they moved around was a total disconnect from the whale dreck re climate chane coning from the “official” farmers’ party .

  8. VE

    No, it was not what the Greens did.

    As I said, it was on facebook: as you probably know, lots of news stories appear on facebook, with links to the on line edition. They include a photo and a headline.

    In the case I’m referring to (and I’m passing on something in the public domain, not something I made up) the original post has been altered.

    Someone else (it might have been ‘The Age’) – not me – complained, and the post was taken down.

  9. …to clarify even further: LU is not trying in his post to claim that the title of the link is the title of the article. The post was altered so that the original headline was removed, but the rest of the post (accompanying photo and link) was left. It was a clear attempt to deceive readers into thinking that ‘The Age’ headline credited the Greens.

  10. Actually The Greens took up the slack in the Rural constituencies among the farming folk who were environmentally conscious. Christine Milne’s legacy. Seems so long ago.

  11. Turnbull just said preference deal with One Nation deal was taken in the interests of the Liberal Party

    What ended up happening though was that the Liberal Party ended up being taken for a ride by One Nation.

  12. zoomster @ #1415 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:53 am

    On farmers getting it – there is a new organisation being formed called “Farmers for Climate Action’.

    More good news! The ages of the farmers on their “Who We Are” list, and also one of their links, confirms what I had suspected – i.e. that there is a generational shift going on amongst farmers and farming families …

    I wonder if the National Party is getting worried yet?

  13. victoria
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 12:02 pm

    Victoria – article in the Washington Post you may be interested in if not already seen

    This former British lawmaker is at the heart of the Trump wiretap allegations

    LONDON — A former British legislator is at the heart of the Trump administration’s explosive allegation that President Barack Obama was spying on him during the 2016 campaign.

    But who exactly is Louise Mensch?

  14. I’ve heard it said (can’t remember where) that support for the Nationals in the regions is more amongst the town-dwellers (business people and workers) than among the farmers. The number of actual farmers must be quite small in comparison to the other groups in these electorates.

    I suspect a lot of farmers are now quite highly educated as they need to be to adopt modern high tech farming practices. I think lots of farming families have been sending the next generation to agricultural colleges and universities for that very reason for a long time now.

    Combine this with the fact that many regional town dwellers (generally the more enterprising ones) have left their towns in the last few decades to seek employment or business opportunities in the capitals or larger regional cities, and you are left with a hollowing out of the demographics that are likely to support “progressive” policies and parties.

    This is all a bit speculative, so perhaps others who have actual experience of living in these areas could comment? I’m happy to be convinced otherwise if I’ve got it wrong.

  15. @ Zoomster – I almost think you believe yourself.

    The Greens posted a link to the article, and gave their post a description that is relevant to their userbase.

    The media do the exact same thing themselves. A scientific study has a title, for example. The media do not use that title when they write an article about the study. They create their own title, which is catered to their own audience and focus.

  16. VE

    Oh, if you want to support dishonest behaviour, go right ahead.

    Obviously the Greens themselves accepted that they hadn’t done the right thing, or they wouldn’t have removed the post.

  17. brisoz @ #1419 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:58 am

    ATO attacks small business:

    If the average wage earner had any real idea of what business owners (including and especially farmers) get away with in terms of not paying tax on money that contributes to their personal spending power, there would be a revolution. The channels available are myriad and dwarf the few that are available to wage earners (like negative gearing and super).

  18. ..and it’s not a case of ‘believing myself ‘ – I reported a story which appeared on facebook – I didn’t see the original Greens post, I wasn’t the one who complained about it, I wasn’t the one who made the Greens take it down.

    If you’d let it go by, btw, most posters would have done the same. Now you’ve made it more of A Thing, which is a bit counter productive, surely.

  19. Poroti

    I’m a little across this for S-E Australia … (I’m doing this from memory so my years might be 1 either side).

    In S-E Australia in 1982 we had a very unusual event – f#ck all rain for 10 months. It was viewed as an anomaly but not forgotten.

    Things went on for about 15 yrs as expected, some good, some bad, but the ‘good’ were not outstanding.

    Then in the second half of the 90’s we had 4 or 5 yrs where some parts of the S-E would have a short patch of decent rain and then none for a protracted period. And then it would rain somewhere else and then go dry there and so on. If you looked at the total rainfall over the S-E the overall it looked OK.

    Then 2000-2010 was an absolute nightmare.

    Any farmer in the S-E who hadn’t realised by 2005 that the generally reliable weather patterns from the past had changed would have to be outstandingly dumb.


  20. Wakefield, I simply cannot believe that a supposedly reputable polling organisation would use such loaded questions.
    Sounds like a Sabra Lane interview 😉

  21. @ Zoomster – or the Greens acknowledge that picking a fight with the media is a tactical error.

    as for me making it ‘a big thing’, the hypocritical attacks on anything and everything the Greens do or don’t do predates me posting on PB. Don’t try to shift the blame.

  22. …Andrews also reaffirms in his media release that the intention of the payment in question was as I originally believed – that is, for regional members to be able to have accommodation in Melbourne —

    (Sorry, I don’t know how to link to tweets…)

  23. …apparently Andrews asked him to repay the money, he refused, so Andrews asked for his resignation.

    A good example of real leadership. Well done Dan.

  24. VE

    I’m not trying to shift anything. I reported something which popped up on my facebook page, because I knew others would be interested.

    It’s scarcely news that I believe the Greens say one thing and do another, and I’m not fussed if that upsets people. It certainly upsets me, and I would have thought my standards were a lot lower than the Greens believe theirs are.

  25. phoenixRed

    Thanks for posting article. I hadnt seen it. Interestingly, I had been aware of Ms Mensch whilst she was a UK Tory MP on committee re the Levison inquiry, and I did not like her one little bit. Lol!
    As I have mentioned previously, I started to follow her more closely when her views aligned with mine re Rudy Guiliani, the James Comey Letter to congress, and her reporting on the Fisa Warrant. It’s what happens when someone confirms your bias! she has been my must go to everyday to get a sense of where things could be at with Trumpland.
    also, she happens to be married to the manager of one of my favourite bands, Metallica. go figure!!

  26. Tom Hawkins

    if Mr Nardella had agreed to repay the money, he could have been given the benefit of the doubt. But his refusal is a downright slap in the face. his second residence was not out of need. it was a choice. he should know better. good riddance

  27. zoomster

    the intent of the living away allowance, is for those MPs whose seat and residence is in regional area. Nardella’s seat was in Melbourne and he chose to have a residence in some regional coastal area. truly I am embarrassed as a Labor party supporter

  28. The ABC are showing a bit of video of Turnbull getting of an a/c in Jakarta. Turnbull minus coat and tie.

    He’s closely accompanied (and appears to be in conversation with) a bearded guy in a brown suit. Anyone know who he is?

  29. adrian @ #1431 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 12:19 pm

    Wakefield, I simply cannot believe that a supposedly reputable polling organisation would use such loaded questions.
    Sounds like a Sabra Lane interview 😉

    I agree from a psephological point of view. But how lovely for Labor that Tony Abbott has been given some further ammunition for his campaign of sabotage!

  30. @ Zoomster

    I invite you to criticise the Labor party for this ‘travisty’.

    On 25/Feb, 19:29, Labor posted a link to the below article on their facebook page.

    The article had the headline “Liberal electorates among hardest hit by penalty rate changes”

    The ‘headline’, as presented by the Labor party on their facebook page, was “Labor aims to KO penalty rate decision”. They added themselves to the story, and provided their own spin on it.

    You have 2 choices: Criticise whoever runs the Labor facebook page, or apologise to the Greens.

  31. zoomster

    could you imagine all the MPs taking Nardella’s view and purchasing second home away from their electorate and then claiming all the expenses.
    the other MP whose name escapes me, had immediately agreed to repay the money he had claimed under the same circumstances. Why Nardella is being such an embarrassment is beyond me.

  32. Several NSW Police officers have been savaged in court for allegedly grabbing the breasts and neck of an anti-Reclaim Australia protester, then covering their actions up by deleting evidence, making up a false charge against her, lying under oath and attacking her in court.

    Simone Renae White, 41, a social worker, attended Martin Place last July for a counter rally to the Reclaim Australia demonstration.

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