BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. Frednk

    As long as Alan Tudge or Barnaby Joyce are the responsible minister, we can be confident our right to privacy will be respected by any Australian department of homespun security. Our private internet browser histories will only be given to the minimum number of journalists needed to make the government’s point of the day.

  4. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    Why don’t Turnbull, Dutton and Pezzullo (the Coalition Kitchen Cabinet, along with Cormann the ‘Numbers Man’, it seems, with Julie hanging around looking ‘Fabulous, dahling!), just cut to the chase already and impose a Thai-style Military Junta!?!

    Pezzullo can lead the Military beaurocracy like he’s always wanted; Dutton can be the Enforcer on behalf of the Tinpot Dictator, Turnbull, running around the country with his Peter Reith-inspired goon squad to keep the Anti-Turnbull Insurgency (ie the Labor Party and the Workers, plus a few Muzzies for propaganda purposes), suppressed.

    You know it makes sense to them.

  5. Socrates

    The journos have Toad of Toad Hall to worry about though. Read the other day he has sicked the AFP on to some to check their “metadata” etc to try and find their “sources”.

  6. One heartening thing about the WA election polling is that there is zero evidence of any poll bounce for the Liberals from doing a preference deal with Pauline Hanson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/leaked-liberal-polling-forecasts-huge-wa-election-loss-for-premier-colin-barnett-20170306-gus1q0.html

    All those talking of the “rise of Hansonism/Trumpism/middle aged derangement” need to take a reality check. Hanson’s supporters are the same 10 to 15% of far right reprehensibles they have always been. She might win a few Senate seats to become a spoiler. But the vast majority of Australians – all of the left and most of the right – reject her views. She will never be PM, thank the flying sphagetti monster. Have a good day all.

  7. Hazlewood is over 50 years old; to use a desciptive engineeering term it is f**ked. The federal government has messed up energy policy so badley the replacement station (which will not be brown coal) has not been built.

  8. Good morning BK

    I’m suffering my first cold for several years and agree, vertical causes less trouble than horizontal. Take care of yourself. PB (and the rest of the world) needs you.

  9. Frednk

    If we can believe the Hazelwood workers from Lateline, they were deceived by management into believing closure would not be until 2025. Perhaps management was in turn deceived by Coalition promises about “the importance of coal”?

  10. This one came out after BK put up the Pre Dawn Patrol 🙂

    Leaked Liberal polling forecasts huge WA election loss for Premier Colin Barnett

    The WA Liberal Party’s internal polling shows the state government is in a “far worse” position than that shown by published surveys, which point to a Coalition loss on Saturday, and the preference deal with One Nation is to blame.

    http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/leaked-liberal-polling-forecasts-huge-wa-election-loss-for-premier-colin-barnett-20170306-gus1q0.html

    Who in their right mind, unless they were desperate as, would do a Preference Deal with a bunch of Useful Idiots!?!

  12. Thanks BK, love the Kudelka cartoon. A delicious snippet from urbanwronski.com
    ‘Piers Ackermann not only calls Turnbull’s leadership “terminal” he backs a plunge on Portsea Polo princess Ms Julie Bishop as successor’

  13. morning bludgers

    Ah Trumpland. it is a laugh a minute….our Intel Director General cops some attention in the US

    But if the Possum Magic author feels cheesed by her “terrifying ordeal”, spare a thought for Nick Warner, the Director-General of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service. You’d think being the top government spy of a staunch US ally – travelling on a diplomatic passport – would spare you the latex welcome, but no. Not even. Warner got the full treatment last month at LAX arrivals, transferring for meetings in the capital (including, you’d safely assume, at Langley, Virginia). Could you imagine the uproar in Washington if John Brennan or Meroe Park copped a solid frisking at Tullamarine? Yeah right – as if they’d even countenance the indignity of flying commercial!

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/asis-directorgeneral-nick-warner-cops-mem-fox-treatment-at-us-border-20170304-guqo0z#ixzz4aa067EXp
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  21. Seen in the Age – probably a fake news leak from the Libs to deter a ‘protest vote’.
    “A source who has seen polling conducted for the WA Liberal Party one week ago said the government was facing a two-party preferred position of 57-43”

  24. Senate Estimates is a wonderful invention!

    It is important to note that statements by the government that FTTP would have cost $30 billion more and taken 10 years longer to complete are false, misleading and ministers that spruik this nonsense are only making themselves look like dills.

    NBN Co has put on the record at Estimates that to replace the FTTN with FTTdp or FTTP would cost between $6-8 billion, and take a couple of years to complete.

    At the Senate Estimates, Mr Morrow admitted that the Coalition’s broadband policy means that the three million plus premises connected to FTTN will need to pay for infrastructure upgrades, and when Senator Ludlam asked about the discredited figures underpinning the NBN reviews, Mr Morrow admitted that for his family there was already a need for a higher connection speed than what FTTN will provide today.

    Also of note at the Senate Estimates was the Communication Minister Mitch Fifield’s ridiculous attempt to rewrite history regarding the government’s litany of failed broadband promises. Mr Fifield stated that the Coalition NBN policy was based on the “best available advice at the time”.

    The government’s hand-picked non-technical team had to search the world and ultimately found a European consultancy, relatively unknown here, that would provide figures, that were already discredited, to underpin the Government’s NBN related reviews and audits. Could the government find Australian experts prepared to support the figures used – No.

    http://www.innovationaus.com/2017/03/NBN-thin-skinned-social-censors/

  25. ‘Funny and true comment about Meryl Streep…’

    Funny and true comment about Nicholas: he says he isn’t a Trump supporter, but he sure loves to jump on the same bandwagons…

  26. Why all the fuss about Hazelwood on the part of the federal government?

    It’s a privately owned business making the best decisions for its business.

    I thought the Libs were all for privatisation and governments ‘getting out of the way’ of business.

    After all, they let car manufacturing die on the argument that a business should stand or fall on its own merits.

  27. Andrew P Street hits the nail on the head with that article.

    Bank need to issue new loans to provide the moola to punters so that they can recover existing loans. A drop in house prices would see less money in the economy, making it hard (impossible?) for banks to have their loans repaid.

    Similarly for a drop in house builds – fewer builds means fewer new loans means less money to repay existing loads.

    So what does a real-estate-and-bank-loving Govt do when <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8731.0Main%20Features2Jan%202017?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8731.0&issue=Jan%202017&num=&view="one link of the money cycle is falling away and the other is about to be taken out by overseas events?

    …panic?

    Long-shot — John Alexander to pick up the pieces after a housing collapse and lead the Libs to the election after the next.

  31. The ‘rise of One Nation’ is an absurd media beat up (or the result of one!)

    Look at these graphs of Newspolls: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

    One Nation is lumped in with Others until October last year. Then they started polling ON separately. Lo and behold, the drop in polling for Others exactly matches the polling for ON.

    If voters had been given the option of nominating ON separately in the past (and if they had been aware ON was still in existence) that suggests they would have.

    Of course, all the media reporting of ON will result in a bounce (it would for any minor party; look at Clive, who now doesn’t exist but was polling quite well for a minor a few years ago).

    Instead of saying, “Oh, since we started taking ON seriously, more people have become aware that the party still exists, and ON is thus getting the vote it used to get back in the late 1990s” the media is going with “ON is resurgent, that means All Australians Are Racist.”

    It’s very irresponsible reporting.

  32. ….of course the ON/Others vote was previously combined (I need to spell it out so I don’t sound too silly!) — what I mean is that we can’t talk of ON’s vote surging when it could have been there all along, lumped in with the rest.

  33. “The main pressures facing the Australian environment today are the same as in 2011: climate change, land use change, habitat fragmentation and degradation, and invasive species,” the report’s summary says. “In addition, the interactions between these and other pressures are resulting in cumulative impacts, amplifying the threats faced by the Australian environment.

    “Evidence shows that some individual pressures on the environment have decreased since 2011, such as those associated with air quality, poor agricultural practices, commercial fishing, and oil and gas exploration and production in Australia’s marine environment.

    “During the same time, however, other pressures have increased — for example, those associated with coal mining and the coal-seam gas industry, habitat fragmentation and degradation, invasive species, litter in our coastal and marine environments, and greater traffic volumes in our capital cities.”

    The report criticises the lack of “an overarching national policy that establishes a clear vision for the protection and sustainable management of Australia’s environment to the year 2050”.

    But Frydenberg weaars rose-coloured glasses…

    But if the US withdraws from Paris, internal pressure inside the Coalition will intensify, and the prime minister will face calls from some conservatives to follow suit.

    In his column for Guardian Australia, Frydenberg says the Coalition is doing good work on the environment and the conservative parties in Australia have been responsible for establishing legislation such as the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, and programs such as the Natural Heritage Trust and the first mandatory Renewable Energy Target.

    “The task now is to build on this proud Coalition tradition and to use this report to continue the good work the Turnbull government is already doing across so many areas of environmental policy,” he says.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/climate-change-impact-australia-may-be-irreversible-report?CMP=share_btn_tw

  36. ‘ Shorten has made up ground since the same question was asked last November…’

    ‘..Looking at Labor, 21% of people think Shorten would make the best leader of the party – which is a 4% increase since last November..’

    So isn’t an alternative headline “Shorten gains support as leader”?

    I note that the article is coy about the direction of Malcolm’s figures.

  37. Greg Barber‏Verified account
    @GregMLC
    Overnight, I’ve learned the LibNats have backflipped on the Victorian gas drilling moratorium @MatthewGuyMP @PeterWalshMP

  39. Chuckle.

    Can’t provide links as it’s from facebook…

    Greg Barber, leader of the Greens in Victoria, provided a link to an ‘Age’ article, with the headline “Greens secure important step toward future South Yarra interchange.”

    ‘The Age’ protested, pointing out that the headline had been altered from “Melbourne Metro bidders told not to bid out future South Yarra station”.

    Great to see the Greens setting new standards when it comes to integrity…

  40. ‘It’s very irresponsible reporting.’

    Yes, the amount of air time that Hanson gets, just on the ABC, is beyond ridiculous.

  41. Morning all.

    Comical Ali has certainly had his work cut out for him in Trumpville.

    CNN Politics
    2 mins ·
    White House press secretary Sean Spicer, who declined to identify any specific piece of evidence to support President Donald J. Trump’s claim, said the President asked Congress to investigate based on unnamed reports.

    So there’s no evidence of any evidence of no evidence. Or something.

  42. For those poor souls who thought Ms Cash might be in a spot of bother, just listening to ABC news would set your mind at ease.

    It featured none other than that well known independent analyst, Josh Frydenberg telling us reassuringly that it was just a minor matter that had since been rectified.

  44. fess

    I linked the latest piece from John Schindler who has his finger on the pulse re Kremlingate. it is obvious why Trump has decided to go all loco.
    between the European Intel and the US Intel, Trump and his fellow travellers are lashing out

  47. That Essential, if I read the story correctly, thinks Shorten was best PM at 21% over Mal 20% and then 4 others ….????

    You’re right, that story is like gobbledegook the way it is written

  48. Good Morning

    Vic and Fess

    Trump is making it impossible for Congress not to have a special prosecutor appointed to investigate. Bloody hard for the GOP to resist when he is calling for one.

  49. @ Jenauthor, no.

    Shorten was preferred leader of the Labor party by 21% of voters.

    Turnbull was preferred leader of the Liberals by 20% of voters.

  50. Victoria

    I linked the latest piece from John Schindler who has his finger on the pulse re Kremlingate.

    But who knows because the link just takes you to about 10 lines of a article that said not much at all.

    Click bait, I think, after all, who subscribes to the NY Observer???

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