BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 30
1 25 26 27 30
  1. CTar1, we can only hope that he ends up in court with a jury saying “you’re fired” !
    I know this has been debated here endlessly but he, and those around him in his inner circle are very scary people.

  2. A jury cannot fire Trump. The process for removing a President is impeachment (and the alternative methods are equivalent 2/3rds of House and 2/3rds of Senate).

    That being said a jury verdict of something significant would almost certainly result in impeachment. Its also incredibly unlikely given your odds that at least 1 member of a jury is a die-hard Trump supporter is about 100%.

  3. Briefly,
    Cash may have her eye on Moore…Who could blame her!

    Heaven help us! 😀

    That voice! The straining neck tendons! The claws! The bobbing boobies as she walks so stiffly! Zoot alors! 😀

  4. Turnbull trying to blame the complete mess the federal government has made with energy policy on the state government.

  5. CTar1,
    The most perceptive characterisation of Trump that I have read stated that he is used to the worlds of Business and Hollywood, where he could snap his fingers and things were just done. If not, he could just fire you.

    Washington is a completely different beast. He’s not making the adjustment well.

  6. C@TMomma

    No, and it probably shows. Maybe you have been hanging around devious Labor types too much.

    But where the conspiracy theory falls down is that it seems the property purchase showed up on the register back in February and Fairfax asked about it then and got a no comment.

    When the updated register was released today they checked and saw the mortgage had been recorded the day after they asked.

    No conspiracy by Bishop or anyone. Just a journalist making a note to check again. They are good for some things.

  7. [ Elaugaufein Monday, March 6, 2017 at 10:47 pm
    A jury cannot fire Trump. ]

    I know, just wishful thinking on my part.

  8. Funny and true comment about Meryl Streep:

    In America, classiness will get you everywhere, and there’s no better demonstration of it than the teary-eyed adoration generated by every move Streep makes. She strikes me as about the worst possible spokesperson imaginable for the Left in an era of working-class rage, so naturally she’s embraced even more tightly by liberals doubling down on their delusional Clinton Democrat worship.

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/meryl-streep-speech-trump-golden-globes/

  9. Rossmcg,
    I was thinking about Liberal politicians too, they are all the same. 😉
    You might have a point though. And might I just add, boy am I glad I don’t do my shopping at Floreat Forum any more. I might have run into Ms Cash!

  10. Re Cash failure to declare her $1.4M property, what action would be taken against Centrelink recipients who failed to similarly declare property investment? #robodebt

    And before any rightards jump in it’s worth remembering that Cash is on the public teat too.

  11. Your argument that disagreeing with you is tantamount to cyber bullying is the same trope that anti-vaccination nutjobs, Earth-is-cooling cranks and free energy delusionists all use to try to frighten their interlocutors.

    Well said BB. Guytaur always goes the bully route in the face of people disagreeing with him.It’s old and it’s bullshit. Guytaur needs to grow up IMO.

  12. FredNK

    Turnbull trying to blame the complete mess the federal government has made with energy policy on the state government.

    I saw him sometime this afternoon say that house prices were the fault of state governments as well.

    Trumpbull? 😀

  13. Bemused, [Perhaps a jury could convict him and he could be sentenced to a lengthy term of imprisonment, or maybe execution?

  14. Half my post just dissappeared..?

    Bemused….lol…I don’t want to hate someone that much that I want them dead. Just in prison will suffice. lol

  15. Looking for something to break the tedium?

    How about I fire up the old land tax debate? Check out Janda’s latest effort, with this keen closing remark, “But if you really wanted to help ease the upfront tax burden on first home buyers, the best way to do it would be to copy the ACT and replace stamp duty with land tax.”

    Speaking of Boerwar, how good is light rail? And isn’t Varoufakis fantastic?

    😀

  16. Then why don’t they give everyone the highest speed and vary the cost of data used (perhaps in volume tiers or based on ‘time of use’).

    Some service providers do. Both in terms of offering cheaper plans if you agree to a smaller data allowance, and to metering ‘peak’ and ‘off-peak’ usage differently. The ‘unlimited’ plans are a fairly recent development, and didn’t use to be a common option.

    As for why NBNCo doesn’t do that in its own pricing structure, I assume it’s because it’s far, far more lucrative for them to sell capacity on their current CVC model, which requires service providers to heavily over-provision in order to guarantee they can deliver their advertised speeds to end-users. If they switched to charging for actual data usage, they’d probably see much less revenue than they currently do.

  17. greg mcauliffe @ #1277 Monday, March 6, 2017 at 11:22 pm

    Half my post just dissappeared..?
    Bemused….lol…I don’t want to hate someone that much that I want them dead. Just in prison will suffice. lol

    Actually, the mention of execution was just me deferring to the American love of capital punishment, not any particular hatred.

  18. I come here for the psephology, then I do a drive by, then I come back two weeks later for newspoll, then I rinse & repeat.

  19. Yes, Guytaur said a stupid thing, but having virtually everyone piling and calling Guytaur “an idiot” IS the very essence of group playground bullying.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A real early effort today as I have very rapidly developed a severe cold or flu after going to bed and I’m finding it better to have the trunk in a vertical attitude rather than horizontal.

    Not another set of uniforms! Turnbull is considering a proposal for a major restructuring of the federal government that would create a US-style Department of Homeland Security.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-quietly-planning-massive-new-department-of-homeland-security-20170306-gurnpc.html
    Peter Hartcher describes it as a “solution waiting for a problem” and wonders why we’d want to mimic the US when we are continually being told we have the best anti-terrorism outfit in the world.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-solution-looking-for-a-problem-the-downside-to-a-department-of-homeland-security-for-australia-20170306-guri3l.html
    Urban Wronski says that the Turnbull government has lost all credibility legitimacy over the Fair Work fiasco.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/03/06/turnbull-government-loses-all-credibity-legitimacy-over-fair-work-fiasco/
    Jennifer Hewett says that Turnbull will be the big loser if Barnett fails on Saturday. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/malcolm-turnbull-the-real-loser-if-colin-barnett-falls-on-saturday-20170306-guru08
    Just peruse the stories The Australian is running today. Murdoch’s cultural warriors the lot of them!
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
    Shaun Carney says replacing Turnbull as PM will not solve the problems of the Coalition. Google.
    /news/opinion/replacing-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-will-not-solve-the-problems-of-the-coalition/news-story/54f949b0a6fbf04c92f95df9e8cff1bd
    Paul Bongiorno says that the government is really desperate for a budget circuit breaker.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/03/06/circuit-breaking-budget/
    It’s the Ides of March and there are two ways Malcolm Turnbull’s teetering prime ministership may now proceed writes Dave Donovan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-ides-of-march,10087
    Jenna Price has a real spit as she points the finger at us for the rise of Hanson and Bernardi.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-pauline-hanson-and-cory-bernardi-are-your-fault-20170306-gurkq1.html
    Norm Abjorensen writes that recent history suggests that Donald Trump is not so much an originator as a more outrageous heir to a school of lying that has been well used by others to obfuscate truths and avoid accountability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/lies-incorporated-how-big-business-has-created-alternative-facts-for-decades-20170306-gurjx2.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Catherine King comes out swinging in support of vaccinations. But peabrain Hanson wouldn’t understand a word of it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pauline-hanson-vaccination-isnt-a-choice-its-a-lifesaver-20170306-gurpu7.html
    The SMH editorial also has a good crack at the dangerous idiot.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/pauline-hanson-jeopardises-immunisation-progress-20170306-gurh5a.html
    Andrew Street has it all worked out. The government actually doesn’t want housing to be more affordable. Frightening!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/the-government-doesnt-actually-want-housing-to-be-more-affordable-20170306-gurg33.html
    How airports are taking us for a ride.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/travel/2017/03/06/australian-airports-car-parking-revenue/
    James Comey, the director of the FBI, has reportedly asked the US justice department to publicly reject claims made by Donald Trump that Barack Obama ordered his phones to be tapped during the 2016 election campaign. Trump’s certainly upsetting some rather important people.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/06/fbi-director-challenges-trump-over-obama-wiretap-claims-reports
    Less than two hours after Kellyanne Conway made the statement that Trump had secret intelligence evidence that Obama wiretapped him, it was reported that the White House is also leaving open the possibility that what Trump said wasn’t true. That woman is something special!
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/06/kellyanne-conway-falls-flat-face-white-house-questions-lie-trump-secret-intel.html
    Peter Wicks takes Turnbull to task over his “masses of evidence”. A great article.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/masses-like-asses-turnbulls-record-on-evidence-penalises-us/
    John Quiggin puts the case for renationalising Australia’s electricity grid.
    https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-renationalising-australias-electricity-grid-73951
    In an interesting move the NSW is set to introduce a new way of funding emergency services.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/old-way-of-funding-fire-fighting-needs-to-be-torched-20170306-gurl89.html
    An estimated 400 restaurants, cafes and hair and beauty salons in Perth and Canberra will get a visit from the Tax Office this month, as part of the agency’s continued focus on the illegal cash economy. I think they know what they’ll find. It all depends on the nature of the audit though.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cafes-restaurants-hair-and-beauty-salons-on-the-atos-radar-as-it-steps-up-cash-economy-fight-20170306-gurgpa.html

  22. Section 3 . . .

    Outlawing unreasonable requests for cash back from employees and higher penalties for franchisors will fail to stamp out exploitation of underpaid workers, legal experts have warned. Yes, the spivs will persist!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/proposed-laws-unlikely-to-stamp-out-exploitation-of-underpaid-workers-20170303-guqhdq.html
    I hope this “initiative” won’t leave wronged patients in the lurch as the Commonwealth and states slug it out case by case.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/commonwealth-will-no-longer-pay-for-botched-surgeries-20170306-gurvh6.html
    Does Australia have structural racism?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/is-australia-racist,10084
    When boring cricket is the most exciting thing on earth.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/05/when-boring-test-cricket-is-the-most-exciting-thing-on-earth/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Adam Gartrell tells us all about Michaelia Cash’s “innocent oversight”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michaelia-cash-caught-out-failing-to-declare-14m-investment-property-20170306-gurikn.html
    It is not hard to harbour a sneaking admiration for Macquarie Bank and its relentless ingenuity in finding new ways to make money writes Michael West as he exposes the company’s hidden tentacles.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/super-hotel-macquarie-you-can-check-out-any-time-you-like-but-you-can-never-leave/
    Australians are dangerously addicted to antibiotics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australians-are-addicted-to-antibiotics-a-modern-fetish-without-a-longterm-plan-20170228-gun43l.html
    Mark Kenny strides into the hypocrisy surrounding penalty rate positions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/our-offices-are-unattended-dont-call-peak-business-groups-on-the-weekend-20170305-gurcey.html
    Are we headed for shared equity homes?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-scott-morrison-praises-plan-that-that-could-wipe-25-per-cent-off-cost-of-new-home-20170306-gurlbm.html
    An independent expert panel contracted by the Federal government to examine allegations of abuse, neglect and exploitation in immigration detention failed to interview any victims, a royal commission has heard. And Pezzullo and Potatohead held the report back until well after the last election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abuse-panel-did-not-interview-victims-royal-commission-hears-20170305-gurbly.html

  23. Section 4 . . . with a big Cartoon Corner Part 1

    This proposal to tax adverts on junk foods advertising is bound to get the lobby groups up in arms!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/weight-loss-entrepreneur-scott-penns-push-for-a-levy-on-junk-food-advertising-20170302-gup10r.html

    John Shakespeare gives us the new DHS tsar.

    Mark David uncovers a time capsule.

    Broelman immunises Hanson.

    Another White House leak.

    Broelman has worked out where the leaks are coming from too.

  24. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    David Rowe with a disturbing depiction of Trump.

    Alan Moir with Turnbull and Morrison out to lunch on a Sunday.

    Cathy Wilcox with local and Trumpland news.

    Ron Tandberg gives us a few old employees with job security.

    Matt Golding drives through a mobile phone black spot.

    Mark Knight with the latest edition of the “Daily Fake News”.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2f9a2e6946d24a35c5bb93e7dd965e16?width=1024
    A magnificent put down of Hanson by Jon Kudelka!
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/45ddadd3e6dffa1679043cfb547a6203

    PS I’m not feeling at all better.

  25. BK – I hope your ‘bug’ passes quickly.

    The first article ‘Turnbull is considering a proposal for a major restructuring of the federal government that would create a US-style Department of Homeland Security’:

    Is Hartcher practicing for April 1? Although Dutton & Pezzullo are highly likely to have such a plan and Turnbull’s way of dealing with it would be to say he’s ‘considering’. ‘Pez’ hasn’t quite got over missing out on becoming Secretary for Defence (That has always been hid pre-retirement ‘dream job’).

    Mr Turnbull has been keeping his intentions closely guarded. He has held only very limited discussions with ministers on the proposal. Some ministers have heard word of the plan only through their civil service officials.

    ‘Very limited discussions with ministers’? Yeah, well he would do that if he’s just not got around to telling Dutton ‘No’ but obviously pesky ‘civil service officials’ are telling their ministers that there’s a cunning plan afoot …

    Remarkably for such a major change, no written proposal has been circulated within the government.

    “Because,” an official said, “it would have to be put together by the very bureaucracy determined to strangle this idea at birth”.

    I love this bit that says there’s no-written plan because Dutton (and his office staff) and Pezzullo (and his trusted staff in DIBP) are incapable of producing a draft Cabinet Submission. It’s ‘remarkable!

    A Canberra official said that Australia suffers a similar problem: “There are data jealousies between agencies, data gaps, a lack of full data sharing.

    This bit bells the cat … Pezzullo is obsessed with ‘knowledge silos’. However he’s a well known creator of ‘silos’ (This currently one of the major causes of the very major problems DIBP are still having merging data systems from the former Dept of Immigration and Customs).

    It reads like Hartcher had a night out on the ‘piss’ with Dutton and Pezzullo but it’s possible of at least being considered by ‘ace’ tactician Turnbull.

  26. US Politics (“White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said …”. Sean Spicer must be having Monday off):

    President Donald Trump signed a revised executive order on Monday banning citizens from six Muslim-majority nations from traveling to the United States but removing Iraq from the list, after his controversial first attempt was blocked in the courts.

    The new order, which the White House said Trump had signed, keeps a 90-day ban on travel to the United States by citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.

    White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the new order would take effect on March 16. The delay aims to limit the disruption created by the original Jan. 27 order before a U.S. judge suspended it on Feb. 3.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-exclusive-idUSKBN16D154

  27. More US ‘stuff’:

    Iraq was taken off the banned list because the Iraqi government has imposed new vetting procedures, such as heightened visa screening and data sharing

    So visas to the US are dependent on the country of origins vetting rather than vetting done by the US?

    I’m sure North Korea and ISIL would assure the US Govt that their vetting procedures are ‘really good’.

  28. The Old Trump is Back. In Fact, He Never Left

    Don’t be fooled by one decent speech—all Trump has to do was string a sentence together and suddenly he’s “presidential.”
    But that all ended Saturday morning when the old Trump – the “birther,” the hatemonger, the thin-skinned paranoid, the liar, the reckless ranter, the vindictive narcissist, the whack-o conman – reemerged in a series of unprecedented and unverified accusations about his predecessor.

    The sooner congressional Republicans accept this, and take action to remove him – whether through impeachment or the 25th Amendment – the better for all of us.

    http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/old-trump-never-left

  29. Morning all. The scare campaign is already starting over the closure of Hazlewood power station. Job security and energy security.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-06/hazelwood-manager-told-recruits-plant-would-stay-open-to-2025/8329864

    Both claims are easily countered. You can compensate any disadvantaged workers with one off hardship payments for a fraction of the cost of runnng the plant. It chews through more than $100 million of coal per annum. As for the energy security, it is true but does not justify keeping Hazlewood open. The reality is we need to upgrade our grid either way. We already have problems with AEMO while Hazlewood is still operating. The sooner the grid is modernised to stably support renewable energy sources the better.

Comments Page 26 of 30
1 25 26 27 30

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *